WrigleyField 22

He apparently had accuracy issues last year too (based on PFFs "inaccurate and uncatchable" metric). But Lamar is right there with him along with his rookie counterparts. So I don't think it's necessarily a deal killer. This year he is "far and away" worst, but I can't find where they actually track that data on PFF, I'm guessing it's just an input into the grade and not a input I can pull. I haven't dug into last year's numbers but presumably just a change in the split of targeted depth could move it from "bad" to "in your own territory" without changing relative accuracy. Or may be a little of both, but on the accuracy front, we're talking about maybe 2 better throws a game to bring up the average. Re: Lamar, he seems to have a nice balance of designed runs and throws. I can only remember a handful of designed Fields runs at most this year, and I don't think any of them have gotten any large gains. Wonder why they are trying to design more runs for him? I guess they are trying to get him to unlock his passing potential but I also feel like it might be a little bit easier if there was more of a threat of him running on non-scrambles I've been fairly anti designed-runs for Fields for a variety of reasons, but even I'll say they could do a couple a game at this stage. Don't see him becoming Lamar or 2021 Hurts though. One area would have been in the red zone. I was critical on the QB power when they were on the half foot line against the Pack, but in that 1-3 yard range out, it should be a good play and I don't think they went to it again on Thursday. Wanna plug into the PA and true pass set data and see how much they're using that. I saw a stat yesterday that the top 10 PA teams were also top 10 passing teams, but I'm not certain if that was rate or cumulative based. But presumably they're not going PA at a top 10 rate at this stage, and they don't have much to loose by beating that horse dead right now.

Some hard data points on those splots: Of 37 QBs with greater than 60 passes, he ranks: 37 on short throw accuracy rate 35 on behind LOS accuracy rate 37 and 35 on completion per percentage 37 and 37 on PFF pass score 37 and 9 on traditional passer rating (though I question that stats relevance for behind LOS throws) The Bears have compensated for this, but it obviously has downsides. The average/median passer has 1.9x as many short/LOS throws as long/medium throws. And they have 1 deep pass for every 5 short/LOS throws. Fields has 1.3 short/LOS throws for every deep/medium throw and over 1 in 3 (35%) deep passes for every short/LOS. Measured by accurate rate and percentage, his medium game is his strongest attribute. He's top 9 in accuracy there. He's merely top 20 on deep passing, which seems low, but isn't enough to kill him alone. The only downside you can say about the medium game is that it still takes him a long TTT to get those throws (3.16, ranked 33). The average player is getting those median throws out in 2. 8 seconds. So it begs the question: if the Bears OL can hold for 2.5 seconds at a high rate (according to ESPN), are they somehow failing at a clip greater than others in the next 0.3 seconds or is it mostly still just Fields holding the ball? Well on short throws, the average passer needs just 2.3-2.4 and he's taking 2.71. There are some successful throwers averaging up to 2.5 seconds on short throws, but not really in the 2.6 to 2.7 range. The only remotely successful guys also taking that long in short throws right now are both NE QBs. But inherently, long and medium throws are going to be less accurate, no matter how we slice data. That is going to really affect the teams ability to get into an offensive rhythm when the relative balance gets skewed. They need to figure out how to give Fields easy quick reads in the short game. And he has to execute on them. Would be really interesting to study the mechanical differences medium verse short. Is it a footwork issue (say 2 step verse 3 step?) is he thinking too much on short throws? If Fields/Bears can't solve it, he won't be solved. This of course isn't considering total dropbacks and the high sack rate as well. And maybe there is still a sample size issue here and he just needs additional reps and the low rates of accuracy will improve with comfort and volume. But I don't think they can survive with the short/medium/long pass split they have going on right now.

He apparently had accuracy issues last year too (based on PFFs "inaccurate and uncatchable" metric). But Lamar is right there with him along with his rookie counterparts. So I don't think it's necessarily a deal killer. This year he is "far and away" worst, but I can't find where they actually track that data on PFF, I'm guessing it's just an input into the grade and not a input I can pull. I haven't dug into last year's numbers but presumably just a change in the split of targeted depth could move it from "bad" to "in your own territory" without changing relative accuracy. Or may be a little of both, but on the accuracy front, we're talking about maybe 2 better throws a game to bring up the average.

Yeah I can’t find the tweet now but I saw yesterday that Fields has completed more 10+ yard passes then under 10 yard passes which is completely unheard of I did see that, although I don't know if that's including YAC or targeted depth. Will look at the PFF data.

So I am playing around with PFF depth data and the short answer is that the short game is absolutely destroying the Bears offense right now. Fields is dead last in accuracy and effectiveness in short and behind LOS throws. They are seemingly trying to compensate for this, but the relative split of passes is all out of whack compared to any normal O, and I imagine this all starts to create a feedback loop with other issues. Best part of Fields accuracy is medium throws where he's top 10. Deep throws are meh, but still 20ish overall in accuracy.

The throw away stat is also intersting. Kirk Cousins has thrown away 15 (most in league) in 242 drop backs Fields has thrown away 3 in 171 drop backs. So by 3.5x rate Kirk is just bailing on pass throws compared to Fields. I'm not sure the perception would be if Fields was just throwing it away 2-3 times a game though. But at least Kirk avoids sacks 11 sacks v 23. Then you have guys like Matt Ryan with 21 sacks and 14 throw aways! Wtf.

Has he really had that many throwaways? I feel like most "running for my life" situations have ended in a scramble or a sack. I could be wrong though. walterfootball thought of him as an accurate passer pre-draft, so this whole thing is odd. Also, if he's being hit, throwing to a WR who doesn't get to the right spot, or doesn't have the throwing lanes he should could all effect his accuracy. My guess is its a combo of dealing with a pass rush right up the middle far too often and not having decent wr's while trying to work through a new offense what was meant for someone like Rodgers. 1) get him a new interior line 2) get him better wr's 3) get him more experience in this offense 4) give him a horsefeathering chance poles PFF charted him as the most accurate college passer in the PFF College era which I think is 2014 onward. And no its not "cuz his WR were wide open" or at least the stat (CPOE) claims to adjust for that in case anyone (Kyle) wants to say that.

How much of that is "I'm throwing out of bounds because I'm running for my life and don't want to get annihilated again." It isn't supposed to include throw aways and PFF has only credited him with 3 throw aways.

He was last at this stat last year as well, but not "far and away" worst. He defintiely has seemed less accurate on the short throws this year (long throws have seemee fine). Last years for reference.

I'd certainly kick the tires on Fuller, dump one of Pettis and/or Smith-Marsette. Don't kick Fuller's tires or he'll get hurt. Which is a fair risk, and may play into why he hasn't signed. He may just be tired of constant rehabs and is ready to call it quits short of a godfather opportunity.

Yeah, it's going to be interesting. There's some guys that could be traded (Jeudy, Higgins, Claypool) who are in similar boats as the guys traded last year. They will want new deals and have expensive/or soon to be expensive QBs or other expensive WRs on their teams. But the issue here is if they extend Mooney, now you have 2 expensive WRs on the team. Which is fine because they have the space, but 40Mil AAV in WRs who's contracts are up about the same time is probably a bit much. If those guys hit the trade market I think they would go in the sub 1st round pick compensation. It's possible that the initial market moved off on paying guys the $25M price and dumped them for first rounders, but that there is still a market of teams who will move off the 15-18M type players and move them for like a third. Higgins is the real interesting one. Pretty cheap franchise that knows its gonna have to dig deep for Chase and Burrow. But he probably goes for the most of those guys listed.

Apparently Will Fuller is still a free agent? Is he just not healthy or what? 2020 Fuller would immediatetly improve this WR corps.

What they do at WR is perhaps more perplexing. Rumors that they are talking a Mooney extension. Maybe they'll be in a spot to draft a guy in 1st or 2nd round. The best receiver to hit the FA market might be Gesicki, who is like a big slot TE basically. Not opposed to that. Some okay number 2 types. Some guys may hit the trade market but recent history is that that price is a 1st and maybe more.

I think I gave my thoughts on this. Jones- handpicked by GM, "won" starting LT job as a 5th round rookie. Theoretically, should improve as the year goes on. Don't see any chance he's benched this year if healthy. And don't see any chance he's benched next year if he keeps showing promise the rest of this year. Borom- has actually been better than Jones so far, but is upgradeable. Upside similar to Jones but he was picked 1 year earlier and NOT by this regime. Jenkins- is the key. They seem to hate or be trying to motivate him. He's been the best OL at RG. Wonder if he should have ever been moved off of RT. He's been fine there whenever he's played outside of maybe his 1st game after back surgery. That's why I like signing a guy like Elgton Jenkins. He's played LT, LG, RG, RT for the Packers, I'm pretty sure. Add him, add an elite guard prospect or FA and let Jones, Borom and Jenkins compete for 2 spots. LT- E Jenkins/Jones LG- Draft pick/FA C- Patrick (don't think he's cut, think they justify this by saying, "oh this is what we brought him here to play but his hand changed plans!") RG- E Jenkins/T Jenkins RT- Borom/T Jenkins/ E Jenkins/ Jones Jones wins LT, Elgton to RT where he's been most recently in GB. Teven stays at RG. Jones doesn't cut it, Elgton to LT, competition for RT. Teven proves himself enough to go back to his natural RT position, Elgton is an elite guard. Borom likely is swing tackle. Have those drafted guys as backups. Based on what we've seen from Patrick, fire him to the moon. Go sign Pocic as prob the top C on the market? Don't let another hometown C get away lol. Elgton's positional versatility and scheme familiarity probably would be good. Probably makes more sense than chasing Brown or McGlinchey on the top of the T market. You could even wait on Whitehair (and Patrick) and let the August cuts come where they will. Cody looked better this year before getting hurt. Jones-Whitehair-Pocic-Jenkins-Jenkins With possibility Borom looks better than Whitehair and you save some money by cutting Whitehair late and shift Jenkins to LG. Not sure confident about any of the other day 3 picks from this year. You can still RFA tag Mustipher as it's not guaranteed. And could definitely see him draft some more in 23.

FWIW, Football Outsiders has the Bears currently with the 4th highest odds of getting the #1 pick, but the 2nd highest odds of getting a Top 5 pick. So yeah I think to your point the tiebreakers at this point don't look to be doing the Bears any favors. I won't survive Bears Twitter from Jan to April if the Bears get the number one pick lol. Even top 2 I may need to delete my account.

Would be a scorigami. Something to root for.

I could see forgoing Brown and just rebuilding the entire interior outside of possibly Jenkins (assuming they don't see any future outside for him). They could possibly be in a position to draft a tackle high, or just let Jones ans Borom develop and hope an elite interior can carry them even if they're merely average.

I can't see how they are going to be in the comp pick discussion anyways in 2023. Maybe if they tagged Roquan or DM they could turn into 2024 comp picks. Jackson has played himself into being kept. The actual money due is only like 13-14M per and he's actually been worth it. While he could fall off from age, they just have very little good ways to spend their minimum cash spend through 2023. Maybe in 2024 its a different discussion. I posted earlier thier minimum spend requirements. They are like a 110M deficit already and that's with $40M to Quinn, Jackson, Whitehair. If they're cutting those guys and also not extending Roquan and DM... It's hard to envision what spending it looks like, unless they're just gonna cut a check and get nothing.

Getsy has actually done a lot more 6-8 man protections that you'd realize. Did it a BUNCH against Washington. The problem is the 2-3 WR routes were being covered by 6-7 people. Guys weren't getting open (understandably), Fields was holding onto the ball (waiting for guys to get open), and 4-5 man pass rushes against 7-8 blockers were getting home. That's the issue with such a lack of talent. Guys aren't good enough to get open consistently, so you need 5 in routes to hope someone beats their man. Guys aren't blocking well enough to consistently protect with only 5. I think Getsy has done a good job mixing things up with protections and routes. He's had multiple TEs on passing plays. He's had WRs stay in to block on pass plays. I wonder what the actual % is of base verse max pass pro they're running. If you told me it was 50/50 or greater towards max I think I'd believe it.

This is pretty unscientific, but if every team played their remaining games to the "expected W-L" record through 6, then you'd finish with Carolina and Pitt as 1-2 and then a 4 way tie with Bears, Arizona, Detroit, and Washington at 6 wins. Bears would then pick 5th under current SOS standing. I think expected W-L is gonna overshoot actual on the low end. The worst teams in the league will undershot their expected W-L. Worst team isn't gonna be a 5 win team. So little variances will make big jumps, but whatever in tier the Bears end at, they are gonna likely fall at the bottom due to SOS.

I don't care what you think about RB value, I'm not trading any player that makes Justin's life any easier for rest of the year. No to Montgomery. I'd trade Quinn for whatever picks you can get. For Ro, I think I'd be interested in a player swap if there was one, say a young, equivalent scenario WR. Otherwise I probably hang on and revisit his long term decision in offseason. If there was a really buy low WR I'd consider, but like day 3 picks at most.

I hate tanking myself, in almost every circumstance, but it's the route Poles took, so I hope they at least execute it well. Them being pitiful but losing out on a top pick due to a SOS tie breaker would be the worst of both worlds.

A hard schedule that was supposed to be 2nd easiest, that ended up being harder because teams in a similar place (Giants, Jets, Falcons, Patriots) ended up much better than the Bears. Ultimately though, I do think some of those teams will come back down to Earth, and I expect the Bears to pick around 6-10. Yea I think some mean reversion will come a little, but the Bears also are burnt up their easy part of the schedule. If I was putting money it, I'd say 6-10 too, but top 5 is still in play.

DVOA is also still only 50% weighted for opponent at this stage of the season, but bottom 5 team DVOA are as follow, worst to "best" IND CAR WAS HOU CHI (29th and 18th ranked O/D) (little provides more schadenfreude for me than seeing IND dead last for all the unwarranted love Ballard got from Bears fans - and Dodds as a result) Their other opponents yet to come by DVOA rank BUF (1) PHI (2) DAL (6) GB (9) ATL (15) NE (16) NYJ (17) MIA (19) MIN (20) DET x2 (24) Very surprised at ATL being middle of pack. Must be the Pace effect. :wink:

Wallow in misery with us, cheeseheads Bears current draft position is 10, will be 11 if Denver loses tonight. They don't have any easy games really left other than Detroit twice. But they're on pace to lose out on strength of schedule to most teams for draft order. It's gonna be when they're bad, but lose out to some franchise changer at 6 v 8 slot or something dumb cuz they had a hard schedule.