WrigleyField 22

He ended up +1 on draft picks after both swaps. Good arbitrage, even though the net pick value ends up being like a mid 4th to low 3rd when factoring in the 2nd swap. And he got an extra 17 cheap games out of the player swap, independent of how you see the value between the two.

Nearly every major Poles addition is a 90th percentile RAS guy. He has a type. ... He essentially flipped a very good off ball LB for a pretty good WR, and even paid a slight premium on it, BUT still ended up +1 on the pick ledger despite the premium. I will never agree with Poles' sit on hands 2022 FA approach, but I'm a lot more confident he "gets it".

Definitely an overpay, and really not slight either. But I'll take thr past 24 hours 10 times out 10 for where the Bears are and need to be. It's a lot, but better than sitting still would have been. Excited to watch the back 9 games now that Fields has another solid weapon. Line still suspect, but I think options open up.

Objectively a steep price, but I'm okay with it. Poles hasn't fleeced anyone in any deal, but when you look at the context of all the trades together, I like the direction.

Yea, I like it a lot less being their own 2. But I think we can safely put to rest concerns that Poles doesn't understand modern positional valuation. In absolutely vaccum the Roquan trade is alike a B and this one a C-. Altogether, I think it's a win though. Honestly though, let's see if Poles has anymore moves in him.

No, it's the coach's best option now, but it's a pretty sorry excuse for it to be also. Like this shouldn't be their ideal offense in 2023 and beyond. But Poles wanted to tank, so they're here for remainder of 2022.

Not quite the ideal age, but eff it. Flip some picks

Didn't he offer a buyout after week 2 also? Shoulda taken it! Hell even before last week I think they were at like 15th DVOA. Bet he would given a buyout option :lol:

Bears offense, maybe actually average (even though the basis of that is 100% about running ability) Their defense: bad, and just got worse. The SoS outlook... Very skewed, and maybe gonna leave for some weird not at all Bears like games. The next 9 weeks is the closest thing to must watch football as can be for a team not in the playoff hunt running a glorified wing T offense.

To be clear, I don't want to see them move up the draft necessarily. I think they need to move at least one of their 2nds to get a star player who they'll extend. Basically, they can have flipped Roquan for a roughly equivalent young player, just one who fits their plans better. If they're trading Ro and just using the pick... The math of how they'll spend all their cash makes less and less sense. And that will happen at the offseason. If they can flip a 5th for a flyer on a WR before 3:00 today that would be an okay move too. But a bigger move has to happen this offseason. Some team is gonna look to offload a player they don't wanna pay to extend and as long as their 1st isn't offered up, they should be agressive I think.

In regards to using all 9 picks, the 10 he used last year were 7 pretty low value picks. He was just stockpiling bodies for a roster that had lots of holes throughout. With more high value picks and a huge incoming FA splurge, I don't think there's necessarily gonna be as many holes. And he could still trade down if he wants to create picks. He needs to use one of his picks on a star level talent trade I think. The math just won't add up otherwise.

But apparently the Ravens get a 3rd back if they don’t re-sign him. They'll likely get a comp pick if they don't sign him and it'd likely be a third.

Man there ain't gonna be a lot in FA to use their money on either. I don't see a path where part of the offseason plan isn't a mega trade. Don't see Poles using all these picks.

Bears get the better of the Ravens two fifth rounders. Nice.

Where'd you see that? Friend texted it to me but I haven't been able to confirm that anywhere yet. It's someone that usually has good info and doesn't share any stupid rumor he hears. He's just referring to likely comp picks

Depends on what else they do, but there was zero chance Bears would be in same spot.

Yeah, the guys who would be available would be WRs who are due for new contracts either due to end of rookie deals or because they signed a few years ago and the market has reset itself. And the rookie deal guys would have to be on teams that either have other expensive WRs or a really big QB contract on the books. Guys that are nearing the end of their rookie deals: Tee Higgins (Burrow and Jamar going to get real expensive soon), Jerry Jeudy (Wilson, Sutton, Patrick), Brandon Aiyuk (Deebo, but Jimmy G will be gone), Calvin Ridley (cap is a mess from Ryan), Michael Pittman (would probably have to be a tear down), Chase Claypool (Johnson), Gabriel Davis (Allen, Diggs), and Donovan People-Jones (Cooper, Watson). There's not really any guys in the latter category. All the big WR deals were recently signed or the players who signed a couple years ago, aren't deserving of top money anymore (Golladay, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans-age). I've heard whispers that Keenan Allen could be made available this offseason, but yuck, I'll pass on that. He's not great and 30. None of those guys are at Hill, Brown, Diggs levels, but that's probably a good thing as they'd cost less to trade for. Oh the other guy is DJ Moore. But not certain they want to part that early on. Would probably be steep. 2023 and 2024 second?

Hasn't started regularly in a few years, but might now. Obviously they needed a body back lol

People are saying...

I want no part of a Monty trade. The next 9 games are about Fields development and Monty still plays a big role in this O, particularly in their ability to pass the ball. No thanks. I'd need two high value picks and no one is making that offer. I'm I happy Monty is what's between a below average passing attack and just having to run the Navy offense? No, but it is where they stand, basically.

Re : spending A Mooney and JJ extension could be quite large obviously. Quite often the year-early extensions don't pay out big year 1 signing bonuses though. Not that he can't structure like that. I guess the interesting idea would be if he can use big, up front guarantees and drive down AAV. But even with extension the default expectation should be a 2022 Jags type spending spree. Multiple 12M+ guys and several more above $5M players. Spend at least 80M AAV on your top 6 FA targets and assume that is the minimum to get them there. Of course a blockbuster trade with accompanying extension is a possibility too. I don't think a Tyreke type talent is gonna be available. Most likely I've seen bounced about is Higgins, but he's not quite at that level.

I noticed DVOA still horsefeathering hates Fields even while the arrow is pointing up elsewhere. I'm not too concerned about that at the moment, I think DVOA is not especially well suited towards evaluating individual players, but it is worth noting. DVOA has player grades?

I don't think he's proven that he's not a dependable receiver. He's had 20 targets this year in 8 games. Also, this is a Shanahan offensive scheme. This isn't a very TE friendly scheme, unless you have an elite talent at the position like Kittle. The Niners, Rams, Packers, Jets, post Gonzalez Falcons, old school Broncos, all run/ran the scheme and only one with big TE years are the Niners who happen to have a top 2 TE in the league. If you are spending any real money on a TE, you are playing that TE. Not OVER Kmet, but WITH Kmet. This isn't a 2 TE friendly scheme at all. Hell, the Bears have 5 TEs on the roster, the worst WR talent in the league, and STILL aren't throwing to the TEs very much. Get receivers. The player Fields is, is the kind that wants to throw the ball down the field and make big plays. TEs don't make big plays unless they are named Kittle or Kelce. Even the one in question (Gesicki) is only averaging 11.2 per catch, which is great for a TE. But pales in comparison to a non-possession WR. Yea I think Geisicki is the only real TE you can make the arguement for, at least on the higher end of the market. Maybe you could make an Engram case, but Gesicki's case is much stronger. I still wouldn't view Geisicki as a replacement for a big time WR. But again, if Poles wants to get a little extra frisky on O and just flood the weapons, I think he's a guy you can do multiple things with, without it needing to be strictly 12 personnel sets.

DVOA update. Offense and team DVOA ticked up just a hair. Both 29th ranked. Defense DVOA came catering down to 26th. ST DVOA is apparently elite at 3rd overall, but I think is heavily weighted toward the kicking game where Santos has been perfect. But it can't hurt that Velus actually let's a fair amount of kicks touch back from what I can recall.

If Fields has truly turned a corner, it's not unreasonable to expect good performances and big numbers. Believe he'll still face some pressure because the Bears OL is terrible at pass blocking however, it's not going to be of the variety he faced vs. Washington, New England and Dallas. Not the constant on him with the snap of the ball, he'll get some time. Yea OL still an issue, but the one dimensional nature of their passing game hopefully goes over better on worse Ds. May not even make for many more points, but it'd be fun to see a 30 point performance that doesn't require 200 yards rushing and 80 rushing yards from Fields. Not that those things aren't fun necessarily... But a passing game with rhythm is cool too.