WrigleyField 22

That's the opposite of fun. Anyways, I'm willing to accept some more Fields interceptions on a short term basis if it means he gets more reps throwing the ball during an acceptable window. But whether it's working through his mechanical changes to hone accuracy or just waiting on better teammates, there's gonna be poisons we are choosing between. He's not gonna know what he can or can't trust til his throws more passes at the right point in his reads though.

He didn't say one way or the other either, but I believe the draft numbers are based on current record. So given that the Bears project to end up with a top 5 pick but right this second would be in the 5-10 range, they'll naturally drift upwards (potentially significantly) as the season progresses. How are the Eagles not closer to the top in draft capital? Yea I can't figure out the chart really. His draft chart values are published somewhere in his site, so you could try to recreate it, thought not sure what he's using for draft placement (current record only or current+projections) Presumably there are pick ranges that provide more excess value, and it's maybe not linear because the cap hits aren't linear, so there could just be weird "cliffs" where cap hits drop off at a different rate than value cliffs? Edit-actually I may be overthinking it, but I think maybe the NO pick draft slot just wasn't high enough before, the Eagles other picks are just really low with a 32 projected finish, and most the teams above them having lots of excess picks, even if a lot are mid rounders (though in some cases also plenty of excess high picks too)

That's a lot of picks. But because of coach/exec comp picks, SF is still gonna have a dent number of picks, just all late. Truely Rams-esque. "F them picks"

It's such an impressive feat from Dalton that it feels like it would have only been appropriate if it happened when he was a Bear.

Price is probably too high anyway. He was just a 2nd round pick last year, so probably would take at least a 3rd. And probably not worth a 3rd since he's not what I'd consider "proven". Apparently part of why he wants out to is his usage too. He's only getting 25% of his snaps in slot. He'd most likely replace St Brown and Pettis snaps, mostly on the outside. So don't think he'd d be very happy here.

Bears legend Kevin White making a difference on Thursday Night Football.

Worth trading for a 7th if that's all you can get.

Healthy Pringle was getting like 12 snaps a game But I guess part of the problem with both guys is they don't take many snaps out wide. If you're not running a lot of 11 personnel, neither is a great fit with Mooney if they can't play the X. But fix the line and you can run more 11 personnel.

Since he's a week 7 opponent and the Bears fans are already in offseason mode; Jakobi Meyers as Bears WR target for 2023: And for an actual good image of the graphic: He's destroying both man and zone coverage and our best receiver really only beats man coverage (kind of)

He technically wasn't a second rounder, but only an 8 pick difference from Ayo : Jimmy Butler. Also doesn't fit those categories you mentioned. Maybe theres other examples too, but in spirit there isn't a huge talent difference most years in that 20-40 range. Then things tend to drop off a cliff and there's little difference between 40 and the top UDFAa.

I guess the short stuff depends a little. A slant really isn't much of a spot throw. There's maybe been a few where it looked like miscommunication on an option route, but there's definitely been a fair share of ones that just flat out look like misses. Everyone misses some throws, but PFF thinks he's doing so at a higher rate on the short stuff especially. Definitely right about the possibility that they're not replacing the short game with a deep game, but replacing it with runs. He's 15th on total deep passes even though he's 3rd on his rate of deep passes/attempts. If you replaced ~35 rushes with short pass drop backs and they actually could convert a league average rate of drop backs into pass attempts, then his deep ball rate wouldn't be so out of skew to his short throw rate.

I have a feeling this may be related to where the pressure is coming from. Comparatively, so much of his is coming from straight up the middle vs from the outside against other teams that I'd bet it has an impact on that number. Getting Mustipher the hell out of there as to be a top priority. Yea, that's definitely a possible area that could cause the straight numbers to lie. The other big question is just how many blockers it takes. As an extreme method, you can't call a 8 man protection with pressure up the middle at 2.55 seconds a win while calling a 5 man pass pro with a 2.45 second pressure on the frontside edge as a loss. Obviously I don't think the numbers are going to be broadly that extreme, but at this point any small margins you'd hope can create some compounding benefit if they can clean it up. 2 or 3 stinker plays to wins a game would probably alter the raw numbers dramatically. Easier said then done, clearly.

Show him how wrong that thinking is. Exhibit A: Mike Ditka Exhibit B: Joe Maddon Oh we've debated. In his mind a championship coach walks out on their own terms and thats that. One of the quirkier extreme fandom takes I've ever come accross.

Nevermind on the PA stat. The stat was that the top 10 PA teams were all .500 or better. So kinda useless. Fields has 12th highest rate of PA. TTT on play action? 3.7, ranked 37. Maybe the Bears PA concepts are slower developing, but uh yea, TTT holds consistent there again. Ranked 37 on PFF grade for non PA throws. Ranked 28th for PA throw grade. Something has to break the feedback loop where Fields is just "normal long TTT". Until then, I don't know... Last year for reference he was 2.92 and 3.53 on TTT for Non PA and PA. 3.3 and 3.7 this year. And he was basically equally graded on both types of throws. On every metric, whether depth or scheme he's like 10% slower. Don't know if TTT is supposed to be stable or over what sample size it stabilizes, but it's such a hurdle right now for Fields. #notgreatbob

He apparently had accuracy issues last year too (based on PFFs "inaccurate and uncatchable" metric). But Lamar is right there with him along with his rookie counterparts. So I don't think it's necessarily a deal killer. This year he is "far and away" worst, but I can't find where they actually track that data on PFF, I'm guessing it's just an input into the grade and not a input I can pull. I haven't dug into last year's numbers but presumably just a change in the split of targeted depth could move it from "bad" to "in your own territory" without changing relative accuracy. Or may be a little of both, but on the accuracy front, we're talking about maybe 2 better throws a game to bring up the average. Re: Lamar, he seems to have a nice balance of designed runs and throws. I can only remember a handful of designed Fields runs at most this year, and I don't think any of them have gotten any large gains. Wonder why they are trying to design more runs for him? I guess they are trying to get him to unlock his passing potential but I also feel like it might be a little bit easier if there was more of a threat of him running on non-scrambles I've been fairly anti designed-runs for Fields for a variety of reasons, but even I'll say they could do a couple a game at this stage. Don't see him becoming Lamar or 2021 Hurts though. One area would have been in the red zone. I was critical on the QB power when they were on the half foot line against the Pack, but in that 1-3 yard range out, it should be a good play and I don't think they went to it again on Thursday. Wanna plug into the PA and true pass set data and see how much they're using that. I saw a stat yesterday that the top 10 PA teams were also top 10 passing teams, but I'm not certain if that was rate or cumulative based. But presumably they're not going PA at a top 10 rate at this stage, and they don't have much to loose by beating that horse dead right now.

Some hard data points on those splots: Of 37 QBs with greater than 60 passes, he ranks: 37 on short throw accuracy rate 35 on behind LOS accuracy rate 37 and 35 on completion per percentage 37 and 37 on PFF pass score 37 and 9 on traditional passer rating (though I question that stats relevance for behind LOS throws) The Bears have compensated for this, but it obviously has downsides. The average/median passer has 1.9x as many short/LOS throws as long/medium throws. And they have 1 deep pass for every 5 short/LOS throws. Fields has 1.3 short/LOS throws for every deep/medium throw and over 1 in 3 (35%) deep passes for every short/LOS. Measured by accurate rate and percentage, his medium game is his strongest attribute. He's top 9 in accuracy there. He's merely top 20 on deep passing, which seems low, but isn't enough to kill him alone. The only downside you can say about the medium game is that it still takes him a long TTT to get those throws (3.16, ranked 33). The average player is getting those median throws out in 2. 8 seconds. So it begs the question: if the Bears OL can hold for 2.5 seconds at a high rate (according to ESPN), are they somehow failing at a clip greater than others in the next 0.3 seconds or is it mostly still just Fields holding the ball? Well on short throws, the average passer needs just 2.3-2.4 and he's taking 2.71. There are some successful throwers averaging up to 2.5 seconds on short throws, but not really in the 2.6 to 2.7 range. The only remotely successful guys also taking that long in short throws right now are both NE QBs. But inherently, long and medium throws are going to be less accurate, no matter how we slice data. That is going to really affect the teams ability to get into an offensive rhythm when the relative balance gets skewed. They need to figure out how to give Fields easy quick reads in the short game. And he has to execute on them. Would be really interesting to study the mechanical differences medium verse short. Is it a footwork issue (say 2 step verse 3 step?) is he thinking too much on short throws? If Fields/Bears can't solve it, he won't be solved. This of course isn't considering total dropbacks and the high sack rate as well. And maybe there is still a sample size issue here and he just needs additional reps and the low rates of accuracy will improve with comfort and volume. But I don't think they can survive with the short/medium/long pass split they have going on right now.

He apparently had accuracy issues last year too (based on PFFs "inaccurate and uncatchable" metric). But Lamar is right there with him along with his rookie counterparts. So I don't think it's necessarily a deal killer. This year he is "far and away" worst, but I can't find where they actually track that data on PFF, I'm guessing it's just an input into the grade and not a input I can pull. I haven't dug into last year's numbers but presumably just a change in the split of targeted depth could move it from "bad" to "in your own territory" without changing relative accuracy. Or may be a little of both, but on the accuracy front, we're talking about maybe 2 better throws a game to bring up the average.

Yeah I can’t find the tweet now but I saw yesterday that Fields has completed more 10+ yard passes then under 10 yard passes which is completely unheard of I did see that, although I don't know if that's including YAC or targeted depth. Will look at the PFF data.

So I am playing around with PFF depth data and the short answer is that the short game is absolutely destroying the Bears offense right now. Fields is dead last in accuracy and effectiveness in short and behind LOS throws. They are seemingly trying to compensate for this, but the relative split of passes is all out of whack compared to any normal O, and I imagine this all starts to create a feedback loop with other issues. Best part of Fields accuracy is medium throws where he's top 10. Deep throws are meh, but still 20ish overall in accuracy.

The throw away stat is also intersting. Kirk Cousins has thrown away 15 (most in league) in 242 drop backs Fields has thrown away 3 in 171 drop backs. So by 3.5x rate Kirk is just bailing on pass throws compared to Fields. I'm not sure the perception would be if Fields was just throwing it away 2-3 times a game though. But at least Kirk avoids sacks 11 sacks v 23. Then you have guys like Matt Ryan with 21 sacks and 14 throw aways! Wtf.

Has he really had that many throwaways? I feel like most "running for my life" situations have ended in a scramble or a sack. I could be wrong though. walterfootball thought of him as an accurate passer pre-draft, so this whole thing is odd. Also, if he's being hit, throwing to a WR who doesn't get to the right spot, or doesn't have the throwing lanes he should could all effect his accuracy. My guess is its a combo of dealing with a pass rush right up the middle far too often and not having decent wr's while trying to work through a new offense what was meant for someone like Rodgers. 1) get him a new interior line 2) get him better wr's 3) get him more experience in this offense 4) give him a horsefeathering chance poles PFF charted him as the most accurate college passer in the PFF College era which I think is 2014 onward. And no its not "cuz his WR were wide open" or at least the stat (CPOE) claims to adjust for that in case anyone (Kyle) wants to say that.

How much of that is "I'm throwing out of bounds because I'm running for my life and don't want to get annihilated again." It isn't supposed to include throw aways and PFF has only credited him with 3 throw aways.

He was last at this stat last year as well, but not "far and away" worst. He defintiely has seemed less accurate on the short throws this year (long throws have seemee fine). Last years for reference.

I'd certainly kick the tires on Fuller, dump one of Pettis and/or Smith-Marsette. Don't kick Fuller's tires or he'll get hurt. Which is a fair risk, and may play into why he hasn't signed. He may just be tired of constant rehabs and is ready to call it quits short of a godfather opportunity.

Yeah, it's going to be interesting. There's some guys that could be traded (Jeudy, Higgins, Claypool) who are in similar boats as the guys traded last year. They will want new deals and have expensive/or soon to be expensive QBs or other expensive WRs on their teams. But the issue here is if they extend Mooney, now you have 2 expensive WRs on the team. Which is fine because they have the space, but 40Mil AAV in WRs who's contracts are up about the same time is probably a bit much. If those guys hit the trade market I think they would go in the sub 1st round pick compensation. It's possible that the initial market moved off on paying guys the $25M price and dumped them for first rounders, but that there is still a market of teams who will move off the 15-18M type players and move them for like a third. Higgins is the real interesting one. Pretty cheap franchise that knows its gonna have to dig deep for Chase and Burrow. But he probably goes for the most of those guys listed.