WrigleyField 22

Could definitely win one. Even just a 5% chance to win against Philly and Buffalo and a 15% chance against Detroit and Minny would equate to winning at least once 34% of the time. What are the odds on any individual game...? Trying to find stats on historical outright wins at different underdog spreads and can't find it.

You're right it's a great spot to be in. If Poles isn't sold on Anderson/Carter I think he'll still be able to trade down if he's so inclined, but it wont be "3 first rounders robbery" type of trade down if it's not a team trading up for a QB. That said, that's exactly the trade that SF did up to 3 to get the third QB in the 2021 draft. So we can hold out hope. Plus, I'm not totally convinced Carroll would actually go QB at 2, though he could certaintly look to trade down as well then.

I drafted David Njoku to start the season and dropped him after 2 or 3 weeks of basically nothing. Since then it's been a revolving door of terrible numbers while Njoku has actually been pretty good. Pitts owner who had a great stable of RB and tried like hell to pull off a Kelce trade but couldn't. Every week is an adventure now. Only good thing is next week still doesn't matter for me. Then in week 16 it starts to count.

Start a streaming TE who scored more than zero points challenge.

So those TBD ones are most likely One of: Commanders/Giants Cardinals/Rams Steelers/Browns

I am firmly in team trade down just because I think having more spins at the wheel is your best chance at some semblance of certainty when acquiring talent, but if I were drafting there and he's available (and were taking defense), I'd rather have Carter. Just seems interior guys like that are harder to find than good edge guys and would make a huge impact on this defense. Nothing like a guy who can wreck shop and generate pressure from the interior. Fully willing to admit that I don't follow college whatsoever, though, so all I know is what I've seen on Twitter and draft scouting reports. I agree with every word of the first paragraph. It's a toss up on who's the better prospect, though I do think Carter is more unique because like you said, there are more impact edge guys out there than impact DTs. I think Bears' fans attachment to Anderson is in part due to the fact that I think it's a pretty safe assumption that the Bears will add a DT in free agency. They tried to pay big money for Ogunjobi last year, when they had no money. Now they have a ton of cap and a loaded DT class. Well the good news is that if they finish at number 2 they can actually craft a FA strategy over which guy they like more between Carter or Anderson, if that's the route they're leaning. Although Poles may decide to keep his options open and plan FA like he'll be picking later in case he gets that trade down haul. In that case they'd look to definitely add both DT and DE in FA anyways. I guess the DT is more scarce since you have pretty distinct roles between 3T and NT. You could say that the DE do have distinct strong side/ weak side roles, and some might say Anderson is really a weak side DE and not a strong side DE. But it's more often to have DE who can do both than a DT who does both. Situational football comes into play too though. In pass rush downs guys may shift down to spots they wouldn't on nuetral downs.

He's either gonna be their starter or he'll flip into a comp pick for them. Whethet hes thier starter or not is probably totally dependent on Staffords health.

David Ross (kind of counts :dontknow: )

I don't know, but 11 years for a 30 year old SS seems...ill advised to me. I heard it suggested somewhere that the extra couple years are to get the AAV down. If a player wants $250M, he knows he's unlikely to get another deal at 38 or 40 regardless. So stretch it over 11 years instead of 8. Yea at a certain point the years on these deals are just window dressing. And at least a lower AAV lowers the annual amount towards the tax cap right?

Yea. Something like "if every team won 50% of their 1 score games is less interesting, but mor informative. Or just run expected W-L off point differential. In any case, Vikings are a fraud 10 win team. Everything else is kinda whatever.

I have two TE, currently Geisicki and Knox. They play two bad Ds in GB and Chicago week 16. So I'm okay with them for now, but watching like 6 others. Higbee is the big one who I had for a while and has gotten quite a few targets and should have a decent matchup for playoffs. Theres a half dozen guys I flagged to watch for, but I think I'll take my second choice at TE over a second choice on the waiver wire at QB if Hurts went down. It's gonna be a crap shoot no matter what at TE. I may drop Moore after this week for a 3rd TE. He's starting in flex due to byes this week, and he's been kind of a deep/sleeper keeper hold for me all yeat, but in all likliehood not a keeper option I'll use next year. And he's like WR5 for me. Ah, ok. I'm in a pretty competative 14 team league. I'm somehow in first, and Moreau and McBride are the TEs I have rostered... Yea, only a 10 team league for me. I wasted too long hoping for Pitts to turn around his season and probably missed the boat on some buy low TE options I coulda still picked up mid-season though. And wasn't able to pull off any trades. Moreau, Higbee, Bellinger, Hooper, Henry, Otton, Tonyan are the guys are flagged to watch this week and next and then decide between them and Knox/Geisicki who I go week 16 and 17.

Why not both Sure. But interior first They have a bazillion dollars, they better prioritize them both at the same time.

If you want to snag a TE and hope they have a role when week 16 and 17 comes around, I think Trey McBride makes sense. He's getting all the snaps at TE, and Kyler has tended to favor targetting TEs. He just hasn't been getting the targets thus far since Ertz went down. I think it makes more sense holding a guy like him (or Okonkwo, etc) than White, whom you could probably grab anyways if Hurtz gets hurt. I have two TE, currently Geisicki and Knox. They play two bad Ds in GB and Chicago week 16. So I'm okay with them for now, but watching like 6 others. Higbee is the big one who I had for a while and has gotten quite a few targets and should have a decent matchup for playoffs. Theres a half dozen guys I flagged to watch for, but I think I'll take my second choice at TE over a second choice on the waiver wire at QB if Hurts went down. It's gonna be a crap shoot no matter what at TE. I may drop Moore after this week for a 3rd TE. He's starting in flex due to byes this week, and he's been kind of a deep/sleeper keeper hold for me all yeat, but in all likliehood not a keeper option I'll use next year. And he's like WR5 for me.

I'm okay if he, Borom, and Leatherwood are the 2-4 tackle spots (plus Borom and Leatherwood can also prob bump inside as backups). I want them to sign a legit veteran tackle (Right or Left side doesn't matter IMO) I'd rather they focus their attention on the interior O-line Why not both

I'm officially eliminated on one league and locked up the number 1 seed in another league. So I'm mostly hanging around the next couple weeks. May do a little more digging at possible additions for week 16/17 matchups for my one seed, but even that doesn't really matter except DST which I already have looked at, and TE, which is just a dumpster fire no matter what. My RB/WR aren't really benchable for matchup reasons, so it would only come up do to injury. Picked up White as my emergency QB in case Hurts were to get hurt, as White has decent playoff week matchups... So if anyone has a good streaming TE for week 16/17 matchups, drop a recommendation.

I'm okay if he, Borom, and Leatherwood are the 2-4 tackle spots (plus Borom and Leatherwood can also prob bump inside as backups). I want them to sign a legit veteran tackle (Right or Left side doesn't matter IMO)

This thread is for Arson Judge

This is the dream, but I can't imagine it would be cheap. Yep, he'll be that AJ Brown territory. Not getting him for less than a first rounder.

But anyways looking ahead to 2024 WR FA as those would be your "surprise guys" Justin Jefferson. Obviously would be flabbergasted to see him moved. You can probably remove the Bears as a landing spot if he somehow was anyways. Tee Higgins. Much speculated due to Bengals financial constraints Michael Pittman. Definite possibility as they could be headed for a blow-up CeeDee Lamb. No way, this was the whole reason Jerry dumped Amari Cooper for practically nothing. Marquise Brown. Would be a surprise since they gave up a first, but haven't extended him yet. If a FO blew up happened though, a new GM might look to move on and recoup that cost. A level down then you have Gabriel Davis, Donavon Peoples Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jerry Juedy. Really still guys who are all about potential and really on the same or slightly lesser level than Mooney/Claypool. Those are all the young guys at least. Old guys who could become trade or cut surprises: Mike Evans, De'Andre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd. Then your veteran 'never quite were' guys like Corey Davis, Robbie Anderson who could be cut based on their current salary.

Obviously hard to predict. But I'm somewhat skeptical Poles wants to go in on a Mooney-Claypool-Trade target all needing extensions. Yea they're sunk costs at this stage, and he could let Mooney walk next year and try and collect the comp pick for him, but I do kind of think Claypool was the move and he'll try to add the BIG name WR through the draft. Claypool raises the floor enough to allow him to do that.

Cuts a check to the NFLPA for the shortfall and they decide how to divy it up among any guys who the Bears rostered from 2021-2023. Edit - and my financially minded answer is that in a rising cap environment, lost purchasing power.

Pollard is working himself into a potential big deal. But even at the lower end of the market, I think theres gonna be interesting options, like a Kareem Hunt. More I think about it though, I really think Montgomery could be cheap to retain.

Is Velus really a lock? I would hope they acquire enough assets to at least make it possible he’s off the team by the time summer comes along. He’s done nothing. He’s older and there cannot be much of a cap hit by cutting him. Yea, minimal cap impact. Probably pretty safe but not a true lock. He'd cement his lock status if he could prove to be trusted on punts. But if he can't be your punt returner, you're automatically in a tough spot in the WR room. Ideal WR is something like: (1-3) Mooney + Claypool + day 1 or day 2 pick (4) Veteran slot FA (5) Punt and Kick returner + gadget (Velus?) (6) ST coverage guy + backup WR (Bellamy type) Right now, Pringle is their only WR who contributes a little on ST in a non return role. And then splitting return duties means a guy like Pettis is forced to take up offensive snaps. It's just a really inefficient room from a roster 53 composition right now. If Velus can't return punts though, either that vet slot guy or rookie or maybe a DB has to be able to. But it'd be much easier to get a replacement level KR at one of those spots (or RB) than a PR specialist. Or you get a true return specialist who actually can be both.

Yea and he's poaching his OC from a MAC school head coach (Kent State). That's a big pull from any Power 5, but one of Colorados prestige? That's insane. He's gonna recruit awesome coaches and players. #GoBuffs, I'm all in, put a hat on my Amazon Christmas list. Newest Buffs fan, here.

I'm not terribly worried about Jackson or Whitehair. On both guys, a lot of the cap hit is dead anyways. When you look at their base salaries they are both probably okay values. I'd much rather sign a C and push Patrick to backup or off the roster (original round tender Mustipher and let then battle for the backup C role). Jackson is only move on if the injury was a big concern. Could be convinced to move on from Whitehair, but I see him more as a surprise cut candidate in July than a guy you cut in March. Overall good writeups though. 2 OL 3 DL Choose one of LB, CB, WR3, RB2. That's your wave 1-2 FA shopping list. Half a dozen+ depth pieces at/near minimum in the 3rd and 4th waves of FA for the rest + backups. Resign some of the depth/ST guys like Blasingame, Wesco, DHC to minimum-ish deals (though I'd consider a 2 year deal for DHC). Draft could be fascinating if they end up with second pick or kind of boring if they drop to 5th/6th. If they are at 5th and say 1-4 is some combo of Young, Stroud, Anderson, Carter... What do you do? Reach for Quentin Johnson and that X WR1 upside? Hope someone is trying to trade up for Levis or Robinson? Go safe-ish for like a Skoronski? Murphy/Wilson also at DE just for position premium? Ringo (maybe dependent on where they see a possible Jaylon Johnson extension going)