WrigleyField 22

If there was a guy with an injury that benefits from rest, that would be the one area. I asked around a little on Twitter and it doesn't sound like the Jags injury report is significant, so I don't think it comes into play. The only other way it comes into play is packing it in early if you go down early. If Texans jump out to a surprise 2 score lead, you're best bet is to get out of there unscathed and ready for week 18, rather than mounting a low stakes, low probability comeback.

I don't think one stud OL raise the whole units floor that much. If you went and get the best FA OT, but Mustipher is still your center, it's a pretty low ceiling unit. I'm still a whole-hearted subscriber to the weakest link theory of OL building. That said, resources aren't the issue. They can go get a top flight OT and still also replace Mustipher at C to significantly raise the weakest link and floor of that unit. Then it comes down to maybe one spot at LG where you're borderline on making an upgrade and the opposite tackle spot which is presumably Jones, but making sure your depth/competition are enough to provide some flexibility and redundancy in options.

I think from a "big investment" perspective it's about 7 or 8 for me still. 2-3 FA DL 2 (maybe 3rd) FA OL A LB or CB in FA A RB2 or WR3 in FA Your #1 pick which could go towards a variety of needs, but probably another DL is ideal. The mid rounds and minor FA add another 4-5 rotation players and lower value starters. Strictly from the week 1 starters + Claypool + Sanborn, I'd say, yea 10-11 new starters in week 1 next year, and then a handful of new rotation guys.

I don't want them trading down far, but I'd be happy even to get the Trubisky deal. I don't need the RG3 deal or something.

They take into the account each team at current strength basically, but pretty hard to model out effort if there are meaningless games being played (or potential tank motivation). Edit: poking around week 17 Elo and Vegas lines and most games are within a 1.5 points of eachother, with an average of 0.69 difference. So within reason, it's just another proxy for Vegas lines (just an easier one since 538 reports odds instead of having to back into odds from a spread or moneyline bet) Edit 2: I am also using their QB adjusted Elo ratings. That should at least account for changes to QB, but either they aren't adjusting for Foles in Indy or haven't updated it yet. That seems unlikely even though their QB play has been poor all year. Foles should be taking them down even more.

Draft pick odds. Chicago and Houston's odds game by game odds are almost identical right now (28% win chance for Hou in each game and 27% for Chicago each game). Thus, about 1/4 of the time Bears would get #1 pick. ---- And a liitle follow up for why the #1 pick odds could be understated: Tldr - Jacksonville v Houston is basically a meaningless game (think David covered this scenario loosely earlier)

Gonna run my full odds aftef Monday night results, but the Bears #1 pick odds shot up to 23% (from 7%) with that Texans win. And #2 pick odds around 30%.

What a fleecing on the Wilson trade. Seattle salivating at every Broncos loss. Maybe they get the interim coach dead cat bounce now. Would be nice if the Bears had more 1 win buffer on the 2 pick.

Well baring an unreal Aaron Rodgers performance (yuck), my first place fantasy team is going down in Rd1. At least a few of my hedge bets hit and I'm up... $5

Hedge the ML parlay week 18 if they're still a game apart?

I literally posted the odds the other day!

Bears haven't drafted* 1.1 since 1947 *I don't know if they ever finished #1 and traded down since then The Player they drafted, apparently he was injured, but still, yikes

Trevor Lawrence should be next. Yea it drops off, but he's only started two games. Like... there should be a snap minimum or something lol I'd also definitely put Brisset after Lawrence.

Tyler Huntley is the 4th alternate fir the AFC Pro Bowl Huh?

It's down to Mcglinchey or Brown at T. I thought of Jenkins as an elite G who struggled at T. Fine with McGlinchey. He doesn't really help pass blocking... So they'd still be a much better run blocking unit than pass blocking unit. They could always plan to trade down a couple and still get Skoronski, but you're playing with fire a bit there if you get jumped as there aren't many other highly rated tackles.

And cash is used in 3 year windows. Anytime you agrue that 1/3 of that window is gonna be a totally lost year... It's a tough move to justify. They spent like 60% of what they'd need to do on a yearly minimum/year on a three year cycle. Money's getting wasted one way or another. Kirk, Cooper, whoever would look great here even if Fields had busted.

Everyone seemed to believe Kirk’s deal wasn’t worth what the Jags paid, IIRC. JuJu and Zay are in this discussion based on hindsight. The Amari deal would have been great. I’ll give you that one. I wanted Burks, Watson or Pickens if and when the Bears picked. Was speechless they went defense instead. I was fine with NOT paying a WR. Like you can't make that trade for Cooper (even if the Browns didn't give up a ton) if you are not sure you have a QB. That is wasted money, paying a guy 20Mil to get 600-700 yards because your QB is on his back or just bad. Plus, he is a FA after 2024, so if Fields wasn't the guy you'd probably have wasted 2022 on Cooper + 2023 because next year would be the year you're either benching Fields if he's Zach Wilson bad or you'd get rid of him and bring in another QB with the 2nd pick and spend a year developing him with no talent around him either. Same w/ Kirk or whoever. Don't want to be stuck paying a WR 18Mil when you don't have anyone worthwhile to throw to him. Juju's actually bad and is a zone beater only. He doesn't help with the Bears separation issues at WR. That's all so counterintuitive. Money just isn't that scarce of a resource. You're better building around a failed QB, then adjusting, than not building when you actually already had a QB in place. GMs just aren't good enough to thread needles like that around timing. You have to be in constant build mode or you minimize your usable windows.

People were wrong. The Kirk deal is fine. I personally liked Zay, at that time, no hindsight.

Yea, even if Poles was putting Fields into a prove it mode, an extra OL and WR would have been building blocks even if Fields turned into a flop and Poles wanted to pivot. They could have thrown around 25-30M extra in AAV and still had boatloads of 2023 cap space. As we just saw with Jenkins getting an extension done today, once teams re-up their guys, spending a 120M haul in one offseason doesn't look easy. Diminishing return of cap space.

Beleiving that is exactly the problem he absolutely could have gotten a bigger name WR and OL at minimum to jumpstart the offense and teams rebuilding. This massive cap space they have in 2023 didng materialize out of thin air, but is a direct result of punting in 2022 FA. Believing they can't spend now and extend Fields later is basically owner propoganda. I'm not saying they can't spend now. I'm just saying they have to spend while keeping an eye on the biggest prize (Fields). They are clearly going to be going on a significant spending spree this offseason since the cupboard is so barren. As it appears right now, the biggest influence on the Bears spending is gonna be the required cash minimums. By the time a Fields extension comes it won't matter one iota that they held back spending in 2022.

I don't remember any bigger name WR's that were reasonably available. Hill, Adams and Kirk signed lucrative deals. AJ and Hollywood Brown cost a small fortune in draft picks. After those guys, you have JuJu, Zay Jones, Corey Davis, Devante Parker, Robert Woods, etc.... Who could they reasonably afford that improves the WR room this past offseason? Granted, I wanted them to go WR with one of those 2nd rounders. But rookie WR's aren't a guarantee to be better than what they have in the first year, either. Kirk's deal was worth the money. Add in Zay Jones too. The last guy I liked who hasn't produced is Cedrick Wilson, but you could at least make a case he's stuck behind Hill and Waddle. When he got snaps in Dallas he produced. Juju has been great for KC. Not sure what type of deal he would have taken to come here as he obviously took a one year deal to prove it with Mahomes as his QB. And then Cooper was available in trade for peanuts.

Beleiving that is exactly the problem he absolutely could have gotten a bigger name WR and OL at minimum to jumpstart the offense and teams rebuilding. This massive cap space they have in 2023 didng materialize out of thin air, but is a direct result of punting in 2022 FA. Believing they can't spend now and extend Fields later is basically owner propoganda.

Thoughts on the Bears draft pick odds. Thread has some added thoughts and I may actually be understating the #2 pick odds and overstating the #3 pick odds because the LA-DEN game is such a dependent driven result and I more modeled the odds as totally independent, which isn't technically correct, but greatly simplifies the efforts.

I am more concerned about his ability to find talent than making proper cost benefit analyses. Most guys at least come in and acquire a handful of quality players in their first offseason. But Poles failed miserably there. Not a single good offensive player and a couple ok defensive guys. This team is still largely a Pace acquired roster, especially at all the difference making positions. That’s weird.I mean I guess. But to the extent he tried it was kind of a small sample with objectively low ceilings. He whiffed on low ceiling FAs, but he can't build his roster plan around low ceiling FA guys in 2023.

I am more concerned about his ability to find talent than making proper cost benefit analyses. Most guys at least come in and acquire a handful of quality players in their first offseason. But Poles failed miserably there. Not a single good offensive player and a couple ok defensive guys. This team is still largely a Pace acquired roster, especially at all the difference making positions. That’s weird. Eh. I know the jury is still out on them (as it is for most of this roster, including Fields), but Poles has added what looks like at least an adequate, Charles Leno level LT in Braxton Jones and added Chase Claypool who is potentially a very productive WR in a good offense. But yeah, the guys to most likely be "stars" of a playoff contending team are from the Pace era (Fields, Jackson, Jenkins, Herbert maybe, Mooney and Kmet maybe) Yea, I laugh every time people say Poles isnt gonna spend as heavy in FA because Mooney, Kmet, etc are all gonna be extended. Which to a certain degree is possible, but also hilarious if the winning plan was "Pace's QB and resigning most of his recent picks"