WrigleyField 22

Looks like there's a very slight impact, per 538s prediction model. But perhaps more indirectly, a Lions loss basically tanks their chances leaving almost nothing or nothing to play for the following week against GB. Do you have a link to that I love playing around with that stuff https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/

Pretty certain the outcome of the Bears/Lions game is meaningless to the Packers’ playoff odds. Looks like there's a very slight impact, per 538s prediction model. But perhaps more indirectly, a Lions loss basically tanks their chances leaving almost nothing or nothing to play for the following week against GB.

How so? He's got Sam Mustipher as his current C, Mustiphers shape can only be described as round. Poles must be able to justify it somehow Mustipher only forced on him cuz he thinks the cap is real *niche sarcasm post*

320. Poles doesn't like the fatties. Probably a pass for the Bears.

Yeah, Schmitz seems like he'll go anywhere from mid 2nd to mid 3rd. He's interesting because he doesn't seem very athletic. Not a guy that's going to wow at the combine, but he plays way more athletically than he looks. Has a lot of plays where he makes fantastic reach blocks, which are key for this offense. Not sure how good he would handle elite interior pass rushers or DEs on stunts, but run blocking looks like a clear fit. But overall, I'm not in love with the guy as a prospect. Definitely not big on handing him the job as a rookie, and where he will get drafted you basically would have to hand him the job to make the pick worth it. But if the Bears do sign a really good LG and a starting RT, then he becomes a much more viable option. I'm coming back to this because I've been busy the last few days and haven't had a chance to reply, but Schmitz is more than capable w/ pass rushers and stunts. He's off the charts on run blocking and pretty damn good on passing downs https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/JohnMichael-Schmitz-OL-Minnesota even if Patrick somehow held on the C position, Schmitz has the size, talent, and athleticism to play G. He'd be a better bet than Mustipher and probably most of the top G's in the draft eta: plus, he's from the south suburbs and very likely a Bears fan. HOMER UP If he's a versatile IOL guy, then that may be slightly different than a C only guy. So he could be the "make a decision on Whitehair later" guy then. I *may* still just have a little Hrosniss Grasu trauma, but the mid round C only scares me.

Looks like Ben Gordon's personal struggles and legal issues continue

The floor to like a back end top 10 defense is a lot more attainable with Fields. If they can clean up the line, I think they can *get by* elsewhere. Of course I want a Bills/Chiefs top 3 offense, but I don't think mediocre to good is dependent on that first pick, luckily

I don't think getting that Adams type receiver is the only path to them competeting around Fields in the near term, either. They can be a division winner and serious contender without it. Even if you were recognizing it might be a short term play there may be other short term play WRs who may become available at a much lesser cost than Adams. Don't know for sure, but I'm guessing his price isn't significantly different than a year ago. So yea, while the Bears shouldn't have some 3 year building window, I don't think they can focus on any one method and I think it's fair to question whether Adams would be worth the cost to acquire. Probably all moot. I don't think he's going anywhere.

In Front Office turnover rumors: (the Big Ten fans in the comments seem ready to pack his bags, for whatever that is worth lol) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warren Has plenty of NFL exec experience (Rams, Lions, Vikings), most recently as Vikings COO from 2015-19 before becoming Big Ten commissioner. Wonder if he was involved at all with the Vikings Stadium deal before becoming COO.

I would not risk that units success on the availability of the right OC prospect just sitting there in the mid rounds. That would be more of a "wait and see on Whitehair and LG" proposition than a "Wait and see on Mustipher/Patrick at C" proposition to me. risk? what risk? you're looking at replacing Sam Mustispher for crying out loud! I keep saying his name because 1) I'm a total homer but 2) - and more importantly, he's the best coming out, but Schmitz from Minnesota would be a huge upgrade If the only bar is improving Mustipher that's still a wide and left for "bad OL" Mid round rookies are never that safe of propositions. Fields getting his pocket collapsed because Poles tried to get cute when he had all the money he could possibly need is something I want zero to do with.

This is how I would itemize the roster of 22 starters and 4 key rotation pieces. I've assigned partial credit for guys who are tossups or longshots. Column 3 is where there is a certain or possible in house replacement who wasn't a week 1 starter (Claypool at WR-X, Patrick at C, Sanborn at Mike, Jones at NB) Pos Wk1 22 Ply Back Other New QB Fields 1.00 0.00 0.00 RB Montgomery 0.25 0.75 0.00 WR-X St Brown 0.00 1.00 0.00 WR-Y Mooney 1.00 0.00 0.00 WR-S Pettis 0.00 0.00 1.00 TE Kmet 1.00 0.00 0.00 LT Jones 1.00 0.00 0.00 LG Whitehair 0.50 0.00 0.50 C Mustipher 0.00 0.25 0.75 RG Jenkins 1.00 0.00 0.00 RT Borom 0.00 0.00 1.00 DT Jones 0.50 0.00 0.50 DE Muhammad 0.00 0.00 1.00 DE Quinn 0.00 0.00 1.00 NT Blackson 0.00 0.00 1.00 MK Morrow 0.25 0.75 0.00 WL Smith 0.00 0.00 1.00 CB Johnson 1.00 0.00 0.00 CB Gordon 1.00 0.00 0.00 NB Vildor 0.25 0.25 0.50 SS Brisker 1.00 0.00 0.00 FS Jackson 1.00 0.00 0.00 DL Robinson 0.50 0.00 0.50 DL Gibson 0.50 0.00 0.50 RB2 Herbert 0.25 0.00 0.75 WR/TE Griffin 0.00 0.00 1.00 26 Total 12.0 3.00 11.0 So basically. 1 New WR and 1 New WR/TE weapon (maybe slight chance Velus is internal fill-in for the latter) 1 New RB with a outside chance of a resigned Montgomery 2 New OL with a possibility of 3 3 new DL, maybe all 4 new, but with a few bodies back at least as rotation guys in that case 1 new LB with either Sanborn or a resigned Morrow back at one spot 1 New CB likely, but some chance they fill internally (lots of young bodies there) Blended that's 15 spots returning as starters or filled internally and 11 new spots to fill. That's a majority of your expected O/D snaps (before injury). And then I'd presume you're probably 50/50 in resigning verse new FA and draft picks that fill out the rest of the roster spots 27-50 (then 3 specialists who should all be back)

Yea those are really low odds though. Per 538, a win bumps their odds up 2% and a loss bumps down 5%. So a 7% swing for the WC. While not nothing, when paired with the week 18 being a 100% win and in prop, it's just a game where you should be fine being in a hedge mode. Every decision is "is this worth the 7% WC increase, when the the division is the main prize."

The cap hits of Patrick or Whitehair are pretty meaningless to me at this point for the Bears. They'll be in a good cap position moving forward no matter what.

To me I think C is a position where you could draft a quality player in the 3or 4th round that could start right away assuming you have some talent around them. I would not risk that units success on the availability of the right OC prospect just sitting there in the mid rounds. That would be more of a "wait and see on Whitehair and LG" proposition than a "Wait and see on Mustipher/Patrick at C" proposition to me.

If there was a guy with an injury that benefits from rest, that would be the one area. I asked around a little on Twitter and it doesn't sound like the Jags injury report is significant, so I don't think it comes into play. The only other way it comes into play is packing it in early if you go down early. If Texans jump out to a surprise 2 score lead, you're best bet is to get out of there unscathed and ready for week 18, rather than mounting a low stakes, low probability comeback.

I don't think one stud OL raise the whole units floor that much. If you went and get the best FA OT, but Mustipher is still your center, it's a pretty low ceiling unit. I'm still a whole-hearted subscriber to the weakest link theory of OL building. That said, resources aren't the issue. They can go get a top flight OT and still also replace Mustipher at C to significantly raise the weakest link and floor of that unit. Then it comes down to maybe one spot at LG where you're borderline on making an upgrade and the opposite tackle spot which is presumably Jones, but making sure your depth/competition are enough to provide some flexibility and redundancy in options.

I think from a "big investment" perspective it's about 7 or 8 for me still. 2-3 FA DL 2 (maybe 3rd) FA OL A LB or CB in FA A RB2 or WR3 in FA Your #1 pick which could go towards a variety of needs, but probably another DL is ideal. The mid rounds and minor FA add another 4-5 rotation players and lower value starters. Strictly from the week 1 starters + Claypool + Sanborn, I'd say, yea 10-11 new starters in week 1 next year, and then a handful of new rotation guys.

I don't want them trading down far, but I'd be happy even to get the Trubisky deal. I don't need the RG3 deal or something.

They take into the account each team at current strength basically, but pretty hard to model out effort if there are meaningless games being played (or potential tank motivation). Edit: poking around week 17 Elo and Vegas lines and most games are within a 1.5 points of eachother, with an average of 0.69 difference. So within reason, it's just another proxy for Vegas lines (just an easier one since 538 reports odds instead of having to back into odds from a spread or moneyline bet) Edit 2: I am also using their QB adjusted Elo ratings. That should at least account for changes to QB, but either they aren't adjusting for Foles in Indy or haven't updated it yet. That seems unlikely even though their QB play has been poor all year. Foles should be taking them down even more.

Draft pick odds. Chicago and Houston's odds game by game odds are almost identical right now (28% win chance for Hou in each game and 27% for Chicago each game). Thus, about 1/4 of the time Bears would get #1 pick. ---- And a liitle follow up for why the #1 pick odds could be understated: Tldr - Jacksonville v Houston is basically a meaningless game (think David covered this scenario loosely earlier)

Gonna run my full odds aftef Monday night results, but the Bears #1 pick odds shot up to 23% (from 7%) with that Texans win. And #2 pick odds around 30%.

What a fleecing on the Wilson trade. Seattle salivating at every Broncos loss. Maybe they get the interim coach dead cat bounce now. Would be nice if the Bears had more 1 win buffer on the 2 pick.

Well baring an unreal Aaron Rodgers performance (yuck), my first place fantasy team is going down in Rd1. At least a few of my hedge bets hit and I'm up... $5

Hedge the ML parlay week 18 if they're still a game apart?

I literally posted the odds the other day!