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WrigleyField 22

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Everything posted by WrigleyField 22

  1. WrigleyField 22
    News dropped 2 minutes after midnight eastern. Has to be a Black Monday record.
  2. WrigleyField 22
    Or Vegas
  3. WrigleyField 22
    They've changed too many blocking rules, it doesn't matter. Why it will never be replicated.
  4. WrigleyField 22
    The Bears made a SB with a top 5 defense from the past 30 years and a Special Teams/ Return game advantage that will never be seen again. Cool.
  5. WrigleyField 22
    So is Zach's trade value restored? LA still floundering since they hung a banner for the in season tourney, let's make a deal.
  6. WrigleyField 22
    Go sit with Bill Polian
  7. WrigleyField 22
    She's lasting til at least 105, book it
  8. WrigleyField 22
    I would not be surprised at top 5 for Daniels at all. Leaping either Williams or Maye would be pretty shocking. But it does only take one, and if he does, someone at 3 or 4 is gonna get a freaking steal of a QB prospect.
  9. WrigleyField 22
    1. Not what I said. I spoke to uncertainty of what will be there and Bears capacity to capitalize on it, not certainty of what won't be there 2. A game to go. Between 2 teams who's QBs will (likely) be in the 2024 draft? Yea, I don't think any possible consensus QB for the 2025 draft is building their case more until Sept 2024. No one stands out to even the level Maye was talked about a year+ out (let alone Williams)
  10. WrigleyField 22
    Obviously I get the whole alignment of coach thing, but I wouldn't want to pass up a QB over it either. We don't have to like the decision, but you'd be hard pressed to make a valid argument that there wasn't alignment in GM-HC-QB even with Flus at the helm. Likely any lake duck discourse at that point is probably more media narrative than reality (though impossible to know for sure)
  11. WrigleyField 22
    Cousins is the only semi realistic one I can think of, and to that I say yuck. I'd rather watch Fields have a 5 second TTT than cheer for that corny ass QB
  12. WrigleyField 22
    The opportunity to upgrade Mooney is gonna have plenty of other options as well whether it's trade, FA, or later in draft. QB upgrades are always incredibly limiting, so the opportunity cost is very real.
  13. WrigleyField 22
    You're not even playing on the same dartboard. It's not simply 4 equal throws to 1.
  14. WrigleyField 22
    And half of those probably won't actually turn into an upgrade. This has been a major problem with this discourse from much of the fanbase. The QBs are treated with major risk concerns and the trade down package treated as a sure thing. Totally uneven dichotomy not based in reality.
  15. WrigleyField 22
    The consensus on them is both incredibly strong and there's not a super strong consensus on who the top guy in 2025 would even be whereas people easily had their targets set on Williams and Maye this time last year. Granted sometimes a strong consensus guy emerges like a Joe Burrow, but the odds of being in that spot or being able to trade up are far from given. If you're passing on Maye/Williams now the assumption is that if Fields busts your next QB pick will likely be something like the 3rd to 5th QB off the board in a draft (or the veteran FA/trade market). That CAN work as we see frequently, but the favorable outcomes are definitely low then.
  16. WrigleyField 22
    That seems like an incredible false choice. You aren't turning the #1 pick into 4 or 5 upgrades.
  17. WrigleyField 22
    While the Bears overall cap leverage remains very strong, at some point these "get a player back" returns interest me a lot less, especially if they're gonna be due for an extension in a year. DJ Moore was inspired and Montez Sweat was probably somewhat necessary. But I kind of just want all the picks. If it's a player it almost needs to be a 2023 first rounder for me. Super cheap for 3 years and then a cost controlled option. Maybe a 2022 first rounder if good enough player or really good fit, but since they can't necessarily control the team target, I don't want force a poor fit on a player return. I'm not even sure how to value Barmore in this specific example. I played around with it on PFF mock draft just for kicks and I can't get the trade engine to give me more than like a 4th (????)
  18. WrigleyField 22
    I don't find any particular risk in picking up Fields option, but they also don't have to make any decision on it before the draft. Unless they're literally trying to turn it into leverage in trade negotiations (skeptical it would matter anywaya), it's meaningless since the deadline is after the draft.
  19. WrigleyField 22
    A good summary of biggest trade up overpays of all time, fwiw. His methodology is a little inconsistent with how to evaluate trades based on where picks actually fell (hence why the RG3 one is so lopsided as they ended up giving a future 2nd overall), but a good reference for measuring possible hauls against precedent.
  20. WrigleyField 22
    Is there really much better to mess up the QB choice than having MHJ just be our version of Megatron?
  21. WrigleyField 22
    I think you could conceivably get a 1 to 3 trade package that makes you feel just fine about passing up a bigger haul, but you also have to literally use the leverage of other trade opportunities to maybe even get that and there's no guarantee you will. Some fans are so narrowly focused on MHJ I think they'd take like two thirds and be extatic though. Then on the other hand I saw a well known Bears Twitter guy put it in terms of MHJ, Multiple seconds, and a future first and that is probably quite a bit high. But suddenly, yea, it starts to be one tempting over a bigger package (assuming you've decided against Williams/Maye for some reason, and I really don't know there is a valid reason for that)
  22. WrigleyField 22
    Yes sitting at 1 and just taking MHJ would be the worst thing they could do. And it's nothing wrong with MHJ obviously, but even if he's the next Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson the #2-4 WRs could all be #1 WRs in their own right and you're maybe adding an extra 3-4 high asset picks.
  23. WrigleyField 22
    Why would it matter. If they pass up the top of the draft the next best opportunity is likely in future years (if/when Fields is given up on). I mean you can take a fourth round flier or something, but it'd still be a major lotto ticket who would usually need several years even if they did hit.
  24. WrigleyField 22
    Yes I think that's ESPNs model
  25. WrigleyField 22
    Not gonna happen. Seriously I'm not even worried about them dropping out of 1.
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