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WrigleyField 22

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Everything posted by WrigleyField 22

  1. WrigleyField 22
    The opportunity to upgrade Mooney is gonna have plenty of other options as well whether it's trade, FA, or later in draft. QB upgrades are always incredibly limiting, so the opportunity cost is very real.
  2. WrigleyField 22
    You're not even playing on the same dartboard. It's not simply 4 equal throws to 1.
  3. WrigleyField 22
    And half of those probably won't actually turn into an upgrade. This has been a major problem with this discourse from much of the fanbase. The QBs are treated with major risk concerns and the trade down package treated as a sure thing. Totally uneven dichotomy not based in reality.
  4. WrigleyField 22
    The consensus on them is both incredibly strong and there's not a super strong consensus on who the top guy in 2025 would even be whereas people easily had their targets set on Williams and Maye this time last year. Granted sometimes a strong consensus guy emerges like a Joe Burrow, but the odds of being in that spot or being able to trade up are far from given. If you're passing on Maye/Williams now the assumption is that if Fields busts your next QB pick will likely be something like the 3rd to 5th QB off the board in a draft (or the veteran FA/trade market). That CAN work as we see frequently, but the favorable outcomes are definitely low then.
  5. WrigleyField 22
    That seems like an incredible false choice. You aren't turning the #1 pick into 4 or 5 upgrades.
  6. WrigleyField 22
    While the Bears overall cap leverage remains very strong, at some point these "get a player back" returns interest me a lot less, especially if they're gonna be due for an extension in a year. DJ Moore was inspired and Montez Sweat was probably somewhat necessary. But I kind of just want all the picks. If it's a player it almost needs to be a 2023 first rounder for me. Super cheap for 3 years and then a cost controlled option. Maybe a 2022 first rounder if good enough player or really good fit, but since they can't necessarily control the team target, I don't want force a poor fit on a player return. I'm not even sure how to value Barmore in this specific example. I played around with it on PFF mock draft just for kicks and I can't get the trade engine to give me more than like a 4th (????)
  7. WrigleyField 22
    I don't find any particular risk in picking up Fields option, but they also don't have to make any decision on it before the draft. Unless they're literally trying to turn it into leverage in trade negotiations (skeptical it would matter anywaya), it's meaningless since the deadline is after the draft.
  8. WrigleyField 22
    A good summary of biggest trade up overpays of all time, fwiw. His methodology is a little inconsistent with how to evaluate trades based on where picks actually fell (hence why the RG3 one is so lopsided as they ended up giving a future 2nd overall), but a good reference for measuring possible hauls against precedent.
  9. WrigleyField 22
    Is there really much better to mess up the QB choice than having MHJ just be our version of Megatron?
  10. WrigleyField 22
    I think you could conceivably get a 1 to 3 trade package that makes you feel just fine about passing up a bigger haul, but you also have to literally use the leverage of other trade opportunities to maybe even get that and there's no guarantee you will. Some fans are so narrowly focused on MHJ I think they'd take like two thirds and be extatic though. Then on the other hand I saw a well known Bears Twitter guy put it in terms of MHJ, Multiple seconds, and a future first and that is probably quite a bit high. But suddenly, yea, it starts to be one tempting over a bigger package (assuming you've decided against Williams/Maye for some reason, and I really don't know there is a valid reason for that)
  11. WrigleyField 22
    Yes sitting at 1 and just taking MHJ would be the worst thing they could do. And it's nothing wrong with MHJ obviously, but even if he's the next Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson the #2-4 WRs could all be #1 WRs in their own right and you're maybe adding an extra 3-4 high asset picks.
  12. WrigleyField 22
    Why would it matter. If they pass up the top of the draft the next best opportunity is likely in future years (if/when Fields is given up on). I mean you can take a fourth round flier or something, but it'd still be a major lotto ticket who would usually need several years even if they did hit.
  13. WrigleyField 22
    Yes I think that's ESPNs model
  14. WrigleyField 22
    Not gonna happen. Seriously I'm not even worried about them dropping out of 1.
  15. WrigleyField 22
    Maye will do.
  16. WrigleyField 22
    I mean, we might know by March. Whether moving on or not, could see a March trade if Fields or the pick.
  17. WrigleyField 22
    Presidential just sounds corny, forced, and unnatural. I'd just call them consensus guys, I.e. They were widely seen as consensus #1 picks with little debate as to their value. Caveat that I think you could have two consensus guys who just happen to fall in same year as I'd say is the case this year. Of course sometimes you'll think a guy should be and isn't and falls Consensus Williams, Maye, Burrow, Lawrence, Stafford, Bradford, Newton(?), Winston (to extent he wasn't it was character concerns only)... Maybe a few others Everyone else is some level of blue chip to very good to "wtf was that team thinking".
  18. WrigleyField 22
    And I'd rather put talent around a #1 pick QB than later. It's obviously not a mutually exclusive choice. The Bears can build a support system around a #1 pick at QB. Sure they could also turn it into a few extra picks into a support system for a lesser ranked QB, but your average downside later is probably quite a bit worse and building that supporting cast doesn't rest on those few extra picks, even though it would lessen margin for error.
  19. WrigleyField 22
    Pedanting over exactly what qualifies as a bust or not, it's probably telling that even many retread QBs are former #1s. Like the downside outcomes over guys capable of going #1 tend to be pretty high still. Not many are Jamarcus Russell level washouts. Obviously the All Pro type odds are still pretty low, but from an overall risk standpoint I think you can probably do a lot worse that the risk entailed in a prospect like Williams who's upper-tier even among typical #1s (and Goff and Mayfield were obviously lower tier #1s at the time).
  20. WrigleyField 22
    I say they go QB. And as good as MHJ is and he could probably make a case for pick #1 in like half of drafts, I wouldn't take him bwfore 3. QB or trade down for a haul.
  21. WrigleyField 22
    Who's to say they aren't keeping Flus no matter what? For my sanity I'll just root for wins. Warren either knows what he's doing or he doesn't, the wins or losses don't matter towards that.
  22. WrigleyField 22
    Not sure if the most efficient scenario but Win out+ Week 17 Vikings, Steelers, Giants win Week 18 Falcons, Eagles, Cardinals, 49ers win
  23. WrigleyField 22
    The worst case of Fields playing well any or all of the last 3 games is improving trade value slightly. I'll root for Fields til he's no longer a Bear.
  24. WrigleyField 22
    Been in the QB at 1/2 camp. Still in the "can Fields be the bridge QB?" hot take camp, but that takes a big hit if for no other reason that Flus being retained probably just took a hit and I think it's more likely he'd be retained under Flus than a new Head coach. This is a good thing of course as I'd like to see Flus replaced. But we don't seem to have any good idea what mgmt might be thinking. I kind of want to see them eliminated for good in an embarrassing fashion just to see if Warren will operate differently. But only slightly. Still gonna root for some improbable playoff route on their 3% odds because I find tanking more than a single game abhorrent (and even a one game tank week 18 against GB I won't be able to actually root for that)
  25. WrigleyField 22
    Thinking on it more I'd do 1.01 and 2025 1st I think. Or 1.01 + Bears 2024 but also need a couple decent picks back like Chargers 2025 2nd and extra. Like he's definitely at least a perennial 6-12 QB as basically a floor. Not sure hes a future All Pro and HOF, but he's very good. That's worth 1.01 and a bit extra, but depending on where Bears pick ends up, there's a little evening out needed.
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