Transmogrified Tiger

Will it be an all out fire sale and rebuld? Will they try to get back on top ASAP as they did in the '06-'07 offseason? I really want this seaosn to end just to see where they go. 1B: ??? Id love to say Adrian Gonzalez, and its a possibility. The Padres being in contention is great for us because they wont trade him at the deadline, and may very well in the off season. If not, either someone like Hoffauir, or a cheapish vet on a 1 year deal like Branyan while we wait for Adrian and Prince to hit FA. 2B: Im going to go with a Fontenot/Baker platoon. SS: Starlin Castro 3B: Aramis? If he hits his stride this year, I cant see him not excersising his escape clause. If he doesnt, we'll see him next year LF Soriano CF Byrd RF Colvin C Soto Backup C: Castillo? Clevenger? Chirinos? Bench: Darwin Barney Bench: Brad Snyder/Micah Hoffpauir Bench: Sam Fuld Bench: Baker/Font I really done see them inposition to spend money on backups Hopefully Theriot and Fukudome are traded. Lee walks Rotation SP: Z-I really dont see him traded SP: Dempster SP: Gorzolanny SP:Cashner SP: Wells? Jackson? Diamond? Lilly walks unless traded first. Silva should be sold high on, be it at the deadline or offseason CL: Marmol Pen: Marshall Pen: Stevens Pen: Grabow(stuck). If we can get rid of him somehow, Gaub or Russell. Pen: Blake Parker Pen: Jackson/Diamond? Pen: trade or FA

I originally typed this out in the Z to the pen thread, but it became so long that I thought I'd separate my thoughts out. If it doesn't generate much talk, I'll merge it. This is a truly horrifying decision, dumb on many levels. I'm beginning to think that Lou has developed some sort of Memento-esque memory problem where he can't remember past the current week. However, what would it take for this to accidentally work out better in the long run? First of all, it has to predicate on Z breaking down over the life of his contract. Z has a lot of innings on his arm, and frequently gets compared to Livan Hernandez. Fangraphs only does WAR back to 2003, so I estimated for 2002. Livan 2002: 4 WAR 2003: 4.5 2004: 4.6 (age equivalent to Zambrano in 2010) 2005: 2.3 2006: 1.7 2007: 0.4 (equivalent to last year of Z's contract) 2008: 1.4 And here are 2 of Z's top 3 age comparables, Zito and Ramon Martinez Zito Martinez Age 26 3.2 WAR 170 IP/100 ERA+ Age 27 3.0 WAR 206 IP/104 ERA+ Age 28 2.1 WAR 168 IP/114 ERA+ Age 29* 1.7 WAR 133 IP/107 ERA+ Age 30 1.4 WAR 101 IP/143 ERA+ Age 31 2.2 WAR 20 IP/167 ERA+ Age 32** 2010 127 IP/83 ERA+ *Equivalent to Z this year **Equivalent to Z's last contract year Looking at those 3, there's a pretty significant downward trend starting in what would be this year or next for Z. So let's hypothesize, what do we think Zambrano will do as a starter going forward? Using his last few seasons and these comparables as a guide, we could probably guesstimate a 3 WAR in 2010, 2 WAR in 2011, 1.5 in 2012, and 1 in 2013, for a total of 7.5 over 4 years. So the flipside is, how would Z perform as a reliever? His splits are very strong against hitters seeing him for the first time that day(sub .600 OPS against career, all successive appearances are at least a .700 OPS against), although his splits for his first 25 pitches are less extreme. Z's stuff is very good, and would no doubt play up a bit in terms of velocity and sharpness in the pen. On the downside, he can be prone to overthrowing and losing effectiveness, and he has a very diverse repertoire which would translate to the pen worse than someone with fewer quality pitches. Nonetheless, given that he's a 3 WAR starter with great stuff, I feel comfortable saying he'd be an elite reliever. The last three years, there's been roughly 15 relievers per year with a WAR of at least 1.7. I think Z could be at that level for 3 of 4 years, with the lighter workload saving him from the breakdown forecasted by his comparable players. Let's say Z as a reliever has a 2 WAR in 2010, 2 in 2011, 1.8 in 2012, and 1.5 in 2013, for a total of 7.3 WAR. So, depending on how hard you think he'd fall off, there might not be too much of a difference in Z's contributions whether from the rotation or on the pen. Those are obviously just guesstimates, that could be different if he's not as good as a reliever, or his starter's workload causes him to miss significant time in the near future, or any number of things. And to reiterate what I mentioned earlier, I in no way think this was part of the kneejerk decision to move Z there. But maybe if he stays in the pen, it wouldn't be the worst decision in the world. The one thing we do know is if he does stay in the pen, we'll probably never know one way or the other. A last point in this situation, is the pitchers around Z, and it's the real reason why this is a dumb decision first and foremost. To do something as rash as moving your opening day starter to the pen without giving guys like Stevens, Parker, or Gaub a shot to be a fix in the bullpen, or even to give your current pen more than FIFTEEN GAMES to work out a reasonable pecking order, is really really shortsighted. But it does mean Gorzelanny(who I think is a valuable piece) gets an extended audition as a starter, and it makes it a little easier to slot someone like Jackson or Cashner into the rotation in the near future. Looooong story short, this is really dumb. Z has a lot of value as an effective durable starter, and he's come back from these episodes of ineffectiveness many times before. But if you think that Z is doomed to the fate of those comparables and won't be nearly as effective by the end of his contract(or worse), then maybe it's not the worst thing that he ends up in the pen.

? Former Patriot and Jet? 5th all time leading rusher? I know who he is, didn't realize he was that high up on the charts(ESPN says 4th all-time).

Curtis Martin?

I have my doubts, but we'll never know.

It seems like MSU has shot pretty well. I mean, they're a real good team so it's not unexpected, but I think another half like the first wouldn't be out of the question, especially if some guys playing more/different minutes affects them down the stretch.

Yep. KSU basketball is a two and a half hour affair most of the time.

People in glass houses . . . . I believe LSU is looking into possible NCAA violations, according to Athletic Director Joe Alleva. Hey, my team doesn't have any potential violations. What about the recruiting violation when Reggie Bush called and helped recruit McKnight?

I honestly wonder some times if you even enjoy the games. I read several posts and then get really confused when I look it up and see U of I is up by 15.

I'm excited that it's hard to pick. I want to see what Lee and Watkins do in full season ball, I want to see if Brett Jackson can keep up his professional performance to day. I want to see how Cashner does when stretched out further. And my personal favorite the Famous Jay Jackson, I want to see him put up strong numbers in Iowa.

My guess is that ESPN picks up the Opening Day game.

That doesn't necessarily mean all those games are in prime time. I could very well be wrong though.

Why on earth is JT Tiller on the floor when we need a 3? And why is he the one taking it? Horrible way to lose the home winning streak.

I count 5 seniors on their roster from this past year. http://www.broncosports.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=48552&SPID=4061&DB_OEM_ID=9900&Q_SEASON=2009

I don't think the primetime game will be regional coverage, they'll just decide which one is in primetime leading up to the date.

He's really the guy that clinches them as a team indistinguishable from five guys you play at the rec center.

McLaughlin is doing the ACC game, I think I prefer Hamilton. Its probably because I grew up with Hamilton doing Indians games though.

West Virginia-Pitt is on ESPN 360 while Marquette-DePaul and NC State-Virginia play on ESPN networks. Probably not the best decision.

My guess is that's partially due to the team this year. There's only 4 seniors that I see on the roster, and Tepesch is the only remotely draftable junior. Can't be easy convincing draftable talent to go to a situation with that much youth already on the roster.

They replaced Piniero's 5 win season with Brad Penny, and Wainwright and Carpenter each have injury histories and each threw at least 100 innings more than they did in 2008. Offensively the Cards are extremely top heavy, so if they have injuries or ineffectiveness to Pujols or Holliday, they're hosed. Even with them, the rest of the offense is so unproven/ungood that they aren't guaranteed to take advantage of having Pujols and Holliday. Really, a fairly significant portion of the projected difference between the Cards and Cubs is defense. Problem is, all the Cardinals' plus defenders play positions where the measurement isn't very good(Pujols, Molina), or don't have the playing time to have a lot of certainty in them being 1-2 win defenders(Ryan, Rasmus). To clarify, this doesn't mean that I think the Cubs are running away with the 2010 Central. Merely, that there isn't much of a gap between the teams, and no one should be surprised if either wins or if the race goes to the wire. The Brewers can go sit in the corner with the Reds for all I care. They can come out of timeout when they get some pitching.

Actually they do miss his fastball. It's everything else that gets him in trouble.

The naming and description of shoe and clothing features never ceases to amuse me.

Anyone out of South Texas this year? Figured there might be someone out of Moody, Calallen, or Ray. The best player out of the Corpus Christi area will prob. be Mark Blackmar out of Carroll HS. Moody has a 3B by the name of Michael Franco committed to Mizzou. Calallen has a LHP/OF by the name of Rob Zastryzny also committed to Mizzou. None of these will be high picks and will likely go to college, although Blackmar hasn't signed anywhere yet. This post makes me happy. Especially since Mizzou is going to suck this year.

I SAID, THEY'RE GETTING AN IKEA SOON.

And that's exactly what makes a 64/65 team bracket great. It actually means something to get into the tournament. It would be like if Harvard or Yale went from their current accepted number of students to a number 2 or 3 times that. Yeah, you still went there, but how diluted is your educational experience over what the people who got in and graduated with higher standards? No one brags about making the tournament except small schools, and they're the big winner in this proposition because of exposure