Transmogrified Tiger

1. Archer 2. Jackson 3. McNutt 4. Lee 5. Vitters 6. Carpenter 7. Szczur 8. Simpson 9. Dolis 10. Guyer Best Tools Best Hitter for Average: D.J. LeMahieu Best Power Hitter: Brett Jackson Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Matt Cerda Fastest Baserunner: Matt Szczur Best Athlete: Matt Szczur Best Fastball: Chris Archer Best Curveball: Trey McNutt Best Slider: Chris Archer Best Changeup: Chris Rusin Best Control: Chris Rusin Best Defensive Catcher: Robinson Chirinos Best Defensive Infielder: Darwin Barney Best Infield Arm: Junior Lake Best Defensive Outfielder: Brandon Guyer Best Outfield Arm: Kyler Burke

Per MLBTR This makes me irrationally angry.

So I missed my draft with some college friends. 12 teams, and for some reason, we start 2 QBs. Autodraft decided that this meant QB should be last on the priority list, as it drafted 3 RBs, 3 WR, a TE, a K, and a DEF before finally drafting Josh Johnson as if to spite me. So now for the last spot I have to decide between: Matt Moore @ NYG Dennis Dixon v. ATL Any thoughts?

12 teams, normal scoring(3 pts for passing TD) QB Schaub RB Grant RB Mathews WR Austin WR Garcon TE H. Miller K Prater BN Alex Smith BN Best BN Foster BN McGahee BN Harvin BN Hester BN Jacoby Jones Considering the top two guys I wanted in like each of the first 4 rounds got taken, I think it turned out okay. Really happy with my RB and WR depth.

Trying my hand at Fantasy College Football for the first time. Anyone have any favorite sites or other resources they use?

Only one Cub makes any of the lists, and it's ex-Cub Derrek Lee as the 3rd best defensive 1B in the NL. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2010/2610550.html

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-opposite-of-the-angels/ Only the Cubs.

Will it be an all out fire sale and rebuld? Will they try to get back on top ASAP as they did in the '06-'07 offseason? I really want this seaosn to end just to see where they go. 1B: ??? Id love to say Adrian Gonzalez, and its a possibility. The Padres being in contention is great for us because they wont trade him at the deadline, and may very well in the off season. If not, either someone like Hoffauir, or a cheapish vet on a 1 year deal like Branyan while we wait for Adrian and Prince to hit FA. 2B: Im going to go with a Fontenot/Baker platoon. SS: Starlin Castro 3B: Aramis? If he hits his stride this year, I cant see him not excersising his escape clause. If he doesnt, we'll see him next year LF Soriano CF Byrd RF Colvin C Soto Backup C: Castillo? Clevenger? Chirinos? Bench: Darwin Barney Bench: Brad Snyder/Micah Hoffpauir Bench: Sam Fuld Bench: Baker/Font I really done see them inposition to spend money on backups Hopefully Theriot and Fukudome are traded. Lee walks Rotation SP: Z-I really dont see him traded SP: Dempster SP: Gorzolanny SP:Cashner SP: Wells? Jackson? Diamond? Lilly walks unless traded first. Silva should be sold high on, be it at the deadline or offseason CL: Marmol Pen: Marshall Pen: Stevens Pen: Grabow(stuck). If we can get rid of him somehow, Gaub or Russell. Pen: Blake Parker Pen: Jackson/Diamond? Pen: trade or FA

I originally typed this out in the Z to the pen thread, but it became so long that I thought I'd separate my thoughts out. If it doesn't generate much talk, I'll merge it. This is a truly horrifying decision, dumb on many levels. I'm beginning to think that Lou has developed some sort of Memento-esque memory problem where he can't remember past the current week. However, what would it take for this to accidentally work out better in the long run? First of all, it has to predicate on Z breaking down over the life of his contract. Z has a lot of innings on his arm, and frequently gets compared to Livan Hernandez. Fangraphs only does WAR back to 2003, so I estimated for 2002. Livan 2002: 4 WAR 2003: 4.5 2004: 4.6 (age equivalent to Zambrano in 2010) 2005: 2.3 2006: 1.7 2007: 0.4 (equivalent to last year of Z's contract) 2008: 1.4 And here are 2 of Z's top 3 age comparables, Zito and Ramon Martinez Zito Martinez Age 26 3.2 WAR 170 IP/100 ERA+ Age 27 3.0 WAR 206 IP/104 ERA+ Age 28 2.1 WAR 168 IP/114 ERA+ Age 29* 1.7 WAR 133 IP/107 ERA+ Age 30 1.4 WAR 101 IP/143 ERA+ Age 31 2.2 WAR 20 IP/167 ERA+ Age 32** 2010 127 IP/83 ERA+ *Equivalent to Z this year **Equivalent to Z's last contract year Looking at those 3, there's a pretty significant downward trend starting in what would be this year or next for Z. So let's hypothesize, what do we think Zambrano will do as a starter going forward? Using his last few seasons and these comparables as a guide, we could probably guesstimate a 3 WAR in 2010, 2 WAR in 2011, 1.5 in 2012, and 1 in 2013, for a total of 7.5 over 4 years. So the flipside is, how would Z perform as a reliever? His splits are very strong against hitters seeing him for the first time that day(sub .600 OPS against career, all successive appearances are at least a .700 OPS against), although his splits for his first 25 pitches are less extreme. Z's stuff is very good, and would no doubt play up a bit in terms of velocity and sharpness in the pen. On the downside, he can be prone to overthrowing and losing effectiveness, and he has a very diverse repertoire which would translate to the pen worse than someone with fewer quality pitches. Nonetheless, given that he's a 3 WAR starter with great stuff, I feel comfortable saying he'd be an elite reliever. The last three years, there's been roughly 15 relievers per year with a WAR of at least 1.7. I think Z could be at that level for 3 of 4 years, with the lighter workload saving him from the breakdown forecasted by his comparable players. Let's say Z as a reliever has a 2 WAR in 2010, 2 in 2011, 1.8 in 2012, and 1.5 in 2013, for a total of 7.3 WAR. So, depending on how hard you think he'd fall off, there might not be too much of a difference in Z's contributions whether from the rotation or on the pen. Those are obviously just guesstimates, that could be different if he's not as good as a reliever, or his starter's workload causes him to miss significant time in the near future, or any number of things. And to reiterate what I mentioned earlier, I in no way think this was part of the kneejerk decision to move Z there. But maybe if he stays in the pen, it wouldn't be the worst decision in the world. The one thing we do know is if he does stay in the pen, we'll probably never know one way or the other. A last point in this situation, is the pitchers around Z, and it's the real reason why this is a dumb decision first and foremost. To do something as rash as moving your opening day starter to the pen without giving guys like Stevens, Parker, or Gaub a shot to be a fix in the bullpen, or even to give your current pen more than FIFTEEN GAMES to work out a reasonable pecking order, is really really shortsighted. But it does mean Gorzelanny(who I think is a valuable piece) gets an extended audition as a starter, and it makes it a little easier to slot someone like Jackson or Cashner into the rotation in the near future. Looooong story short, this is really dumb. Z has a lot of value as an effective durable starter, and he's come back from these episodes of ineffectiveness many times before. But if you think that Z is doomed to the fate of those comparables and won't be nearly as effective by the end of his contract(or worse), then maybe it's not the worst thing that he ends up in the pen.

? Former Patriot and Jet? 5th all time leading rusher? I know who he is, didn't realize he was that high up on the charts(ESPN says 4th all-time).

Curtis Martin?

I have my doubts, but we'll never know.

It seems like MSU has shot pretty well. I mean, they're a real good team so it's not unexpected, but I think another half like the first wouldn't be out of the question, especially if some guys playing more/different minutes affects them down the stretch.

Yep. KSU basketball is a two and a half hour affair most of the time.

People in glass houses . . . . I believe LSU is looking into possible NCAA violations, according to Athletic Director Joe Alleva. Hey, my team doesn't have any potential violations. What about the recruiting violation when Reggie Bush called and helped recruit McKnight?

I honestly wonder some times if you even enjoy the games. I read several posts and then get really confused when I look it up and see U of I is up by 15.

I'm excited that it's hard to pick. I want to see what Lee and Watkins do in full season ball, I want to see if Brett Jackson can keep up his professional performance to day. I want to see how Cashner does when stretched out further. And my personal favorite the Famous Jay Jackson, I want to see him put up strong numbers in Iowa.

My guess is that ESPN picks up the Opening Day game.

That doesn't necessarily mean all those games are in prime time. I could very well be wrong though.

Why on earth is JT Tiller on the floor when we need a 3? And why is he the one taking it? Horrible way to lose the home winning streak.

I count 5 seniors on their roster from this past year. http://www.broncosports.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=48552&SPID=4061&DB_OEM_ID=9900&Q_SEASON=2009

I don't think the primetime game will be regional coverage, they'll just decide which one is in primetime leading up to the date.

He's really the guy that clinches them as a team indistinguishable from five guys you play at the rec center.

McLaughlin is doing the ACC game, I think I prefer Hamilton. Its probably because I grew up with Hamilton doing Indians games though.

West Virginia-Pitt is on ESPN 360 while Marquette-DePaul and NC State-Virginia play on ESPN networks. Probably not the best decision.