They replaced Piniero's 5 win season with Brad Penny, and Wainwright and Carpenter each have injury histories and each threw at least 100 innings more than they did in 2008. Offensively the Cards are extremely top heavy, so if they have injuries or ineffectiveness to Pujols or Holliday, they're hosed. Even with them, the rest of the offense is so unproven/ungood that they aren't guaranteed to take advantage of having Pujols and Holliday. Really, a fairly significant portion of the projected difference between the Cards and Cubs is defense. Problem is, all the Cardinals' plus defenders play positions where the measurement isn't very good(Pujols, Molina), or don't have the playing time to have a lot of certainty in them being 1-2 win defenders(Ryan, Rasmus). To clarify, this doesn't mean that I think the Cubs are running away with the 2010 Central. Merely, that there isn't much of a gap between the teams, and no one should be surprised if either wins or if the race goes to the wire. The Brewers can go sit in the corner with the Reds for all I care. They can come out of timeout when they get some pitching.