Transmogrified Tiger
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I remember that draft pretty well, and Prior was considered far and away the best prospect available and it was a little bit shocking that the Twins didn't select him (worked out pretty well for them). Obviously, I know a hell of a lot more about baseball now and scouting and the MLB draft, but honestly I still think I would've selected Prior over Tex. That doesn't match my memory exactly, but I was also 14 so I'm not going to claim to have my finger exactly on the pulse. My memory is that there was definitely a sentiment that Prior was an incredible prospect and probably the best in the draft, but also that Teixeira and definitely Mauer were really really good too. Put another way, Prior would have gone #1 in a number of drafts(and possibly his own if it weren't for Mauer's hometown factor), but Mauer and Teixeira would have been Top 5 picks in a number of drafts too. They weren't there for lack of a better of alternatives(unlike say, Hultzen or Ackley) which underlines the point I was trying to make above. IMO you need a prospect of Prior's quality as a prerequisite for taking a pitcher Top 5, but also a lack of prospects of Teixeira/Mauer caliber as alternatives.
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No, not enough at least. You need a generational college pitcher(Strasburg, Prior) and a dearth of hitting prospects on par with say, the 2016 or 2014 first round(and even then, Schwarber and Conforto are decent counterpoints) to even consider it. Pitchers fail as a rule, and when you have the chance to impact your organization as much as a Top 5 pick can, you need one to be overwhelmingly above the field for it to be the right call to draft one. Strasburg's draft is close, depending on how much you liked Ackley at draft time. Drafting Prior over Teixeira is not close to that bar(to speak nothing of the fact that Mauer went #1).
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It's not about 100% chance of having the 'right' pick, it's about minimizing downside. Strasburg obviously was a hit(as was Price), but the top of the draft is also littered with Bullingtons and Appels and Hultzens and Bauers and Zimmers, and that's just limiting to the well-regarded college arms. Ackley was a miss(although one who was great in MiLB and carried strong trade value up through his second go round in MLB), but the top of the draft is also full of Teixeiras and Bryants and Poseys and Wieters and Longorias and Gordons. You don't want to ignore your scouting process entirely, but you have to heavily weight the repeated outcomes that have come before you.
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Here's a quick and dirty illustration, 2000-2009 Top 5 picks(to give them time to reach MLB and contribute). Hitters: 25 Pitchers: 25 Hitters with 10 career bWAR: 12 Pitchers with 10 bWAR: 5 That will change to 14 to 5 soon because Moustakas and Hosmer are both north of 9.5 bWAR too(no pitchers are close). That's proven that it's safer to take a bat but do you pass on Strasburg who like Prior was once in a decade pitching prospect coming out of college? I would have drafted him. That's a bit of an extreme example considering Strasburg's stature and the quality of that particular draft, but even then you have Pollock and Trout in that first round. In that position I probably would have drafted Ackley, and hopefully had better player development than the Mariners or the foresight to trade him before he busted. In the Top 5 you need to not squander the opportunity, look at the pre-Huntington Pirates for a great example of what happens when you do.
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Here's a quick and dirty illustration, 2000-2009 Top 5 picks(to give them time to reach MLB and contribute). Hitters: 25 Pitchers: 25 Hitters with 10 career bWAR: 12 Pitchers with 10 bWAR: 5 That will change to 14 to 5 soon because Moustakas and Hosmer are both north of 9.5 bWAR too(no pitchers are close).
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It took one thing, hiring Dusty Baker. Also him being a pitcher. And a collision with Marcus Giles. You know who probably wouldn't have their career derailed by colliding with Marcus Giles? A hitter. More to the point, with hindsight we know that Teixeira was worth 26 fWAR in his pre-FA years, that's an extremely high bar if we want to play kinda-hindsight with Prior and start doing what-ifs with his manager, workload, fluke injuries, etc.
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That is not really what hindsight means. Also, I'm pretty close to personally believing that you should never ever draft a pitcher in the Top 5, and probably not in the Top 10.
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Oh man the first reply [tweet] [/tweet] -
I'm not going to claim exhaustive knowledge of the process, but my mental model is that they aren't reviewing every audio clip they have each year. If that's the case, then they definitely screwed up more than what I was picturing, but the fact that they've got that in there at all(a 20 year old song with that title) is probably an indicator that whatever list they're pulling from wasn't being reviewed with much scrutiny, if at all.
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I'm skeptical that the title portion was actually played(it'd be very easy to have a ballpark sized portion of that song without any of the 'lyrics'). They're still responsible for the output(even without the lyrics people are gonna recognize the song), but if you've got a playlist of 100 between innings songs set to cycle through or something(especially if they might not be labeled by title), it's a lot easier to see how that ignorance could happen. No matter what portion is heard, a song with that title should never intentionally be played during a baseball game (other than the intern protest scenario). Not arguing otherwise, only pointing out how it could happen, especially since 10, even 5 years ago there wouldn't have been the same response to the same clip being played.
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I'm skeptical that the title portion was actually played(it'd be very easy to have a ballpark sized portion of that song without any of the 'lyrics'). They're still responsible for the output(even without the lyrics people are gonna recognize the song), but if you've got a playlist of 100 between innings songs set to cycle through or something(especially if they might not be labeled by title), it's a lot easier to see how that ignorance could happen.
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completely depends on how soon they clinch And the order of the rotation. If the ace pitches Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday in the last week of the season, they can start the WC game on normal rest, and Saturday starters could go on 3 days rest. So unless the schedule changes, odds are very good(if not guaranteed) that if a team has a clear ace(Kershaw, Fernandez, Cole) they'll start.
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Baez's HOF plaque is just gonna read
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how did Baez 1) hit that 0-2 pitch at all 2) hit it 150 feet
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@Cubs is so so so great [tweet] [/tweet]
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Russell can't keep the bat in his hands a millisecond longer than he needs to, even if he's hitting a 400 foot bomb
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wow that was a changeup, zero fade on it too no wonder that's so lethal for Hendricks
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Jorge Soler's Humongous Dongs
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Sammy Sofa's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Soler is hitting .265/.357/.487/.844 in the last calendar year (263 PA). -
My order of preference: Miami Colorado Pittsburgh Dodgers Mets Cardinals
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[tweet] [/tweet]
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basically, "I'm pissed we lost to a team that bunkered" [tweet] [/tweet]
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the throat stompening
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That pushed Szczur's OPS over .800 in over 130 PAs, he's getting shielded but what a season for him.
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Can someone figure out the Cubs record since the Phillies swept them last year & the Cardinals record from the same date? Quick mental math so I might be off by a game or so, but: Cubs: 118-60 Cardinals: 97-82 21.5 games
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FINALLY A FUCKING TEN GAME WINNING STREAK!!
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
[tweet] [/tweet] aw, the embed doesn't show the emojis in W form
