2015 Jake is not here, not even first half. Unless his slider and/or command improve, that Jake is not coming back. 2016 Jake is plenty good, but he's also going to be prone to having days where things don't go like they should. For a point of comparison, 2015 Lester gave up 4+ runs in 8 different starts and was still a 5 win pitcher. They struggle in different ways, but in terms of putting their quality/mortality into place, it's a helpful analogy.