Transmogrified Tiger

The Indians have a deep offense, 6 regulars have a wOBA over .340. For reference, the Cubs had 5 over .340 including Contreras. They have a mix of speed guys who have a bit of pop(Ramirez, Lindor), outright sluggers(Santana, Napoli, Naquin), and Kipnis who does a little of everything. They led the AL in stolen bases and baserunning value, which could mean that if Lester doesn't keep Rajai Davis(and Ramirez/Lindor to a lesser extent) off first base, the NLCS narrative could be very real like it was for Hamilton and Villar. Their rotation is Kluber and a bunch of misfit toys. Kluber is very good, but more 2016 Arrieta than 2015 Arrieta. There is no Kershaw or Hill in the Indians rotation. Trevor Bauer performed like Jason Hammel this year and he cut his finger off with a drone. Salazar has great stuff but he's been hurt for a 6 weeks and was terrible for longer than that before getting hurt. Josh Tomlin is American League for Mike Leake. And by ability, Ryan Merritt would be more at home getting September starts for the Reds than pitching in the ALCS. Their bullpen is nightmare fuel. Miller incinerates righties and lefties and goes for innings at a time. Allen is their nominal closer and strikes out a ton of guys, if you saw how good Thornburg was for the Brewers this year, that gives you an idea. Shaw is Strop-ian in effectiveness. And for days that their starters don't go long, Otero(AL Tyler Clippard) and McAllister(think 2015 Cahill) suck up innings. Long story short: Work the starters hard but don't forget to score on them, their bullpen is deep enough to manage a 7 game series. Let your pitching and defense do the work it has been, there's no Rizzo or Bryant in this lineup but they don't run as many easy outs as LA and SF either.

I'm extremely unworried about Schwarber's health being an issue, it's 100% about if he's actually going to be able to hit major league pitchers so soon. It sounds a little like he not only just started facing live pitching last week, but that until he was cleared on Monday he hadn't been doing any serious swinging at all. As Kyle likes to point out, 5 weeks of spring training is overkill, but Schwarber hasn't been training like most players are in January either, and 1 week with all the live pitching coming against prospects that are at AA(at best) isn't the same as facing the Cleveland pitchers awaiting him. More to the point, putting Schwarber on the roster instead of La Stella/Zastryzny is easy. Putting him in the starting lineup instead of Coghlan or even Soler is far trickier.

If he can't hit in the AFL he's sure not gonna hit Corey Kluber, I tell ya what

yeah I guess the Taxi Squad rules just don't matter, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You are correct, anyone saying that Schwarber is going to play in the AFL today is wrong.

I would be very surprised if an International Draft applied to NPB players. The current bonus pools do not, and the reasoning(IFA's are not yet professionals, NPB players are) is the same if you go from pools to a draft for IFA's. The posting/FA system could change again, but that would almost certainly be independent of an IFA draft. The Koreans and the Cubans are in professional leagues, would they be exempt as well? It seems like a giant waste of time if the international draft isn't even going to cover all international players. I really wish they'd just leave it alone and let the players keep getting paid what they're worth. Yes? My understanding is that the purpose of the international draft is to add fairness(read: curb spending) on the 16 year old IFAs, not to act as a catch all for any player who isn't drafted in the stateside draft. With the Cubans there's been some flip flopping on whether they qualify, but that ambiguity has never extended to Asian countries, most especially NPB.

I would be very surprised if an International Draft applied to NPB players. The current bonus pools do not, and the reasoning(IFA's are not yet professionals, NPB players are) is the same if you go from pools to a draft for IFA's. The posting/FA system could change again, but that would almost certainly be independent of an IFA draft.

There's a difference between guys like Marmol, Bell, and Rosenthal throwing enough strikes for a few years to be good closers and guys like Jansen, Chapman, and Melancon having a 4-5 year run where they dominate and have an ERA on the right side of 2. They're a different class of player.

Coghlan and La Stella have a combined 6 plate appearances so far this postseason. There's more opportunity with fewer LHSP and the DH, but I think that illustrates the low bar to be cleared. The only starting position in flux is RF, and there's fewer PH opportunities than if Baez were not treating the playoffs like he's Benny the Jet in the Sandlot.

I've got ideas that I don't really want to spell out in great detail at the moment(partially because WORLD SERIES and partially because I'll probably change my mind on how good those ideas are), but one thing I would like to say now is I have very little trust in Rondon going forward. He's 6-7 years post TJS and he's having arm problems again and even though he's currently healthy his command is not there. Add in Strop being a year from free agency and I'm definitely interested in bringing in a really good reliever.

I missed this during the game, wonderful. [tweet] [/tweet]

I am the weirdo who has been thinking of about 5 different article ideas about the offseason even while the playoffs are still going. Should the Cubs go big on a closer and which is preferable among the 3 big names(Chapman, Jansen, Melancon) is definitely one of them. Spoiler: I really like Jansen.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17863558

Ehhhhhhh...say what you will about defensive metrics, but wasn't Contreras rated as being pretty bad when he was out there? Basically just a good arm and not much else? I wouldn't mind doing something like that later in the series, but it would be a crime if the Cubs don't take at least one of those first two games in Cleveland, and it would suck if something as dumb as bad corner OF defense helped keep that from happening. Contreras rated pretty poorly in LF, however: - That was a 20 game sample - Part of that measurement was him inexplicably not rating well for his arm - Cleveland has a small and pretty straight forward LF with the 19 foot wall at 325 feet - Maddon clearly trusts Contreras more than that 20 game sample since Contreras has already finished 2 playoff games in LF

Merritt started Game 5 of the ALCS.

Depends on Schwarber's level of sharpness I guess. If he's back to being himself, then I'd rather he get those at bats and insert Contreras after Lester/Arrieta leave the game. I'm very suspicious of that being the case though.

Hahahahahahaaaa! That's outstanding. So is the consensus that they'll stick with the pitching schedule and have Jake pitch game 1? I ask because I assume Montero will be catching just out of the hope it keeps Jake effective, and then Contreras will DH. Then you have Ross catching game 2, so again, Contreras as the DH. Schwarber coming back would be awesome, but if he's not catching, I kinda want Contreras still in the lineup without having to play him in the OF, so maybe we just see Schwarber as a PH option. I would assume they'll reset as best they're able. Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey.

lol Cubs staff in AZ celebrating with Schwarber http://www.mobypicture.com/user/SpikeLundberg/view/19455291

[tweet] [/tweet]

Melancon too. I just can't put him in that same tier. He belongs there far more than a rehabbing Holland.

Chapman, Jansen and Holland are all going to be available. Melancon too.

He throws a mid 90s cutter, it's his only pitch because you don't need more than that to get anyone out once.

I was watching Luke Cage prior to the game, and an episode overlapped the start of the game so I put the game on my laptop. Given the events thus far let's just say Netflix is gonna keep autoplaying the next episode for a few more hours.

Almora if you learned that below the shoulder catch from Fowler you best unlearn it immediately

I don't post there as much as I used to(partly because of life changes, partially because I'm better at not debating things not worth arguing), but I like being exposed to the different perspective and biases since most folks there are thoughtful and reasonable. Personally I also have some in common with many posters there since I'm a Mizzou grad with family in the St. Louis area.