Transmogrified Tiger
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Addendum: Chapman throwing 1+ inning on 0 days rest, career: 15 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 24/0 K/BB, 1 HBP -
For anyone curious Chapman on 0 days rest this year after throwing 20+ pitches the day before, including postseason: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 9/0 K/BB, 0 HR The one outing with a run was in Coors Field, and was his 4th outing in 4 days(both games of a double header, day off, 24 pitch outing, then that outing). If you expand it to throwing 15+ pitches the day before: 14.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 21/2 K/BB, 0 HR
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If you know of a place where I can bet against Chapman pitching poorly over 2 innings tomorrow, you let me know. i'm gonna guess the odds of him pitching poorly tomorrow are higher than the 1 in 1000 odds that the cubs blew a 7 run lead in the 9th inning. Maddon's biggest mistake was not having someone warming up prior to Rizzo's HR. That cost him 5 pitches. With there being literally no more tomorrow, that's going in the category of "not ideal, but not worth defcon 1 freakout" for me.
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he's thrown 60 pitches in 3 days. that's not nothing, and if he's needed to throw 2 innings tomorrow and pitches poorly, it will be very fair to question his usage tonight. If you know of a place where I can bet against Chapman pitching poorly over 2 innings tomorrow, you let me know.
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All the handwringing and Chapman throws 20 pitches. Should be more than fine to throw 2 very effective innings tomorrow. Almost literally nothing lost.
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[tweet] [/tweet]
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oh this is ice cold [tweet]https://twitter.com/cubs/status/793621530219540482[/tweet]
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[tweet] [/tweet]
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it's almost like Tomlin is not good
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BUT WHY DIDN'T HE GET A CURVEBALL FROM BAUER
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The entire series has been identical for me. Pregame: "eh, if they lose it happens, I like their odds but baseball, etc" The moment the Cubs give up a hit or make an out: "come on you idiots I am DYING here" I've discovered that if you get hung up on every play going your way - every pitch to the Cubs you either want called a ball or to be a meatball down the middle, every ball in play you want to be a hit, every ball in play the opponents hit you want to be an out... there are so many of these plays in baseball that you'll only make yourself miserable. Easier said than done, I know.
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The entire series has been identical for me. Pregame: "eh, if they lose it happens, I like their odds but baseball, etc" The moment the Cubs give up a hit or make an out: "come on you idiots I am DYING here" i'm basically on edge as soon as the game starts...then i relax at the first good play we have. then if we are losing i actually WANT to be dying. The moment we have a lead I start playing count the outs and then I realize there's like 21 at least and I want the sweet release of death
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The entire series has been identical for me. Pregame: "eh, if they lose it happens, I like their odds but baseball, etc" The moment the Cubs give up a hit or make an out: "come on you idiots I am DYING here"
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Well, not with that username you don't.
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I'd be half tempted to say "if it's not on the inner half, do not swing under any circumstance"
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No problems with Lackey the reliever, I'd rather Edwards and Grimm get their shot first though. Or in other words, sell out with the true relievers to try to win the game in 9, and let Lackey be your insurance policy in extra innings instead of Rondon/Strop/Wood.
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Neither Arrieta or Tomlin pitched with West behind the plate this year, so not sure if there's much to take away other than that West couldn't derail SuperJake. That heatmap is promising though, Arrieta is way more likely to try to bust righties inside(even though he'll only face 2-3), and if Tomlin can't get low fastballs called a strike then a diving curveball is easier to lay off. In general a tighter zone slightly favors the Cubs too, who have a more patient and powerful offense and the starter with better stuff.
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This is part of it, but not the entirety of the issue. The worry isn't that the Cubs are going to take a bunch of curveballs for strikes, but that they're going to chase them out of the zone. It's more a worry for the back half of the lineup than the front half, and it's more of a worry the better a breaking pitch that you have. Tomlin's curve sits somewhere between Bauer's and Klubers on the quality scale, with more risk of him being like Bauer than upside to be like Kluber, especially on short rest. It's also good to remember that for all the hand wringing about Tomlin, in his outing where everything went right he still only went 4.2 IP. That's probably the best shot the Cubs have considering the Indians can pretty easily get 4-5 IP from Shaw/Miller/Allen, but the other half is still an opportunity. Shaw has given up 3 hits and 2 walks for a run in 3.2 IP. Miller has given up 5 baserunners(including a HR) and multiple lineouts in 5.1 IP. In a game where the Indians very easily might struggle to score 3, the Cubs don't need to bomb Tomlin into oblivion to have the upper hand.
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Still just exhibition, right? The NBA does this weird invitational thing where none of the games matter until May and then they only matter for 8 teams.
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Considering Rondon is broken and Edwards would probably only pitch in one of games 6 & 7, I can definitely see a Game 7 where Hendricks is lifted in the 5th, and Lester comes in handy to bridge the gap to a 2 inning Chapman save. Is he absolutely necessary? No, but if the alternatives for the 5th and 6th are Grimm/Montgomery, Lester looks more appealing.
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Lackey's kid was Kris Bryant for Halloween. That is beautiful. [tweet] [/tweet]
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This take was astoundingly stupid: In fairness, he did a bit of a mea culpa in an article later. After Sam Miller pointed out that it was a pretty savvy idea, but still. The Bauer/curveball thing is just so simple though. Trevor Bauer's curveball is not good enough to get Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist to chase. In 12 plate appearances this series those 3 swung at 2 curveballs out of the zone, both were Zobrist fouling off pitches up in the zone in his 10 pitch at bat that culminated with a lineout. It wasn't a weapon against them and therefore he didn't use it. When he faced hitters where it would work(Russell) he went right back to it, as Cameron points out. But treating the entire offense as a homogenous unit that has curveball kryptonite is just baffling. If you're Corey Kluber maybe, but this is Trevor Bauer on short rest.
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Uniquely is probably too strong a word, but they are well-equipped since they don't have any left handed SP. The Cubs were the best team in baseball(even better than AL teams with DH's) against LHP for good reason. Or put another way, Francona being willing to start 4 straight games on short rest instead of giving Merritt one start is not an accident. Otherwise, outside of having deep pen and being willing to use it, there's nothing inherently different about the Indians. In terms of describing the actual results, it's too small and mixed a sample to really draw a single conclusion. Small sample sizes and temporary slumps are different ways of describing similar things, and of course the increase in quality means there's lower margin for error on the Cubs' end.
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They've been antagonistic enough towards the Wrigleyville area, they don't want to further alienate them for very little benefit, as cool as it might be to have such a watch party. Beth Murphy might burn Wrigley down herself if they swiped 40,000 customers from the neighborhood.
