Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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trading for bounce back closers a year from free agency and then QOing them is the new market efficiency that's a joke but maybe kinda not
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Schwarber aside from the start of 2017 has run about a .365 wOBA. He has a career +5 UZR in the OF, but let's play it conservative since DRS disagrees and knock him down to -5. That's basically Domingo Santana, who put up a 3.3 fWAR this year, so any offensive improvement or having him actually be a non-negative fielder puts him on the doorstep of 4 wins. Schwarber is a very good hitter, and while he sometimes looks awkward defensively(like when Castro would sometimes kick easy ground balls), he's a perfectly normal defensive LF.
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Here's my thought on Happ. What are the odds that he's much better than he was last year? He could improve his K rate a bit and hit for a higher average, but I think the 2-3 win production you get from him is as good as it gets. That's plenty valuable and shouldn't be given away, but this offense is filled with guys who are showing similar floors while having higher ceilings. Russell has already had a 4 win season. Schwarber continuing his career offense(excluding pre-demotion 2017) and defense is a near 4 win LF. Almora's second half at the plate with his known defensive capabilities is a 3+ win hitter. That possibility exists for Happ, but I think the odds of him regressing and having those contact issues catch up to him outweigh that possibility. Happ's positional flexibility is great too, but it means a bit less when you have someone like Heyward capable of sliding to CF and multi-position guys like Zobrist and Baez around(plus Russell anchoring SS so those guys can roam). In other words, I'm perfectly fine with Happ and would hand him a starting spot in a second if one were available, but the other options present higher ceilings and similar floors with a bit less risk, so I think dealing him now is maximizing his value.
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I'm perfectly willing to put the cart before the horse and say there are zero circumstances in which I would welcome Lackey back next year.
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[tweet] [/tweet] Jed: "Theo, should we bring back Lackey?" Theo: "Neigh"
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The same reason they traded one for Davis.
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Russell is a career +13 UZR at SS while Baez is a career +1. I don't think that's the gospel truth, but there's a significant gap. Baez's 2016 and end of 2017 have obscured perceptions because 1) like most he's much better at 2B and that's where most of his defensive wizardry has been 2) he has higher highs and lower lows in terms of the plays he does and doesn't make
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[tweet]https://twitter.com/mauriciorubiojr/status/530082253838508033[/tweet]
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the implied eye roll from every beat writer as they confirm(in some cases for the second time) that the Cubs didn't go over the luxury tax is hilarious
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http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/good_im_glad_donald_glover.gif
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Cubs Insider thinks Nightengale used the dollars paid instead of the AAVs: http://www.cubsinsider.com/2017/11/13/cubs-reportedly-exceeded-luxury-tax-threshold-bad-not-good-maybe-wrong/
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Rucker is one of those guys that will probably never appeal to scouts. Short RHP without elite velocity or movement, no wipeout secondary, and is a flyball pitcher. Hatch is also a relatively short RHP, but he has the great movement on all of his stuff, while still having solid velocity. His slider can be plus, and he induces tons of groundballs with all of his pitches. I'm a big fan of Hatch, as long as he stays healthy. Rucker is sitting in the 92-93 range IIRC, and his GB% at Myrtle Beach was higher than Hatch's. -
Did scouts just not turn up for Rucker's starts? I continue to be confused why he can't get any love while someone like Hatch is cracking Top 10s.
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Coming back to this, I've been trying to think of ways to address the rotation without Happ because I think this makes sense. Happ may certainly be worth more and if so that's great, but like Raw said, the Soler deal gives us a slight guidepost and at the least we can be more confident we aren't homering some other team in a hypothetical deal. I also think the front office isn't going to want to try quality by quantity in the pen(and even then, convincing 2 upper echelon FA may be difficult), and outside Davis there's no elite option in FA. Osuna, Hand, and maybe Bradley are the names that would make at least some mutual sense in a deal to me.
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Wow, I did not realize Kipnis was so terrible at the plate this year. Can't even really blame his injury trouble because he was worse in the first half when he was presumably healthy. Not that I think that's his indefinite future, but I had no idea given how good the Indians were overall.
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That is a horrific deal for the Cubs. Take on an extra 2 years and 60 million of post-prime FA contract and give up Happ to boot. I feel like they forgot to type in Heyward's name somewhere.
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pretty excited for the Big 12 having a 4 way tie at the top after they finally added a championship game
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beating Iowa State by 15 with Porter Jr. only playing 2 minutes is a much better omen than I was expecting
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Some photos/video from the new Cubs offices in the triangle building: http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/careers/topworkplaces/ct-biz-top-workplaces-2017-midsize-chicago-cubs-20170920-story.html Looks like there's a wall that recreates the chalk messages on the Wrigley brick from the 2016 playoffs.
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Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Once he's officially posted, there's a set time for teams to decide to bid up to $20 mil, I don't remember how long that is(maybe a week?). Once that's done and Otani can negotiate, I think it'll happen relatively quickly. He can't play teams against each other for more money, so he'll probably get a pitch from everyone and make his pick. i wonder if any team won't offer up the posting fee and make the pitch I'm sure his agent will make sure to tell all but 5-10 teams not to bother. -
Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Once he's officially posted, there's a set time for teams to decide to bid up to $20 mil, I don't remember how long that is(maybe a week?). Once that's done and Otani can negotiate, I think it'll happen relatively quickly. He can't play teams against each other for more money, so he'll probably get a pitch from everyone and make his pick. -
Something like 10 million per for those 3 years. The two contracts are nearly identical AAV for luxury tax purposes(22M for Zimmermann, 23 for Heyward), and I'm far more optimistic Heyward turns it around than Zimmermann, so getting salary relief that would represent a quality player in the short run is what it would take for me.
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Cobb is an easy one. I'd be willing to make the 5th starter more speculative(e.g. a Montgomery-esque trade, an FA like Hellickson/Vargas) if it meant they were able to get Darvish and make 1-4 in the rotation that strong. I'm open to signing Chatwood but I don't think the front office is going to be a big believer(I've outlined earlier the walks are a big deal). The specter of Otani looms a bit here too. Most importantly though, I think the trade market for Happ or Happ-headlined packages is able to get you a SP with a higher ceiling than Samardzija, a better contract situation, or both.
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If you're convinced that Zimmermann can bounce back and be simply a decent approximation of what 2017 Lackey was expected to be, and if Detroit picks up significant cash in the first 3 years(with the Cubs picking up significant cash in the last 3 years), then I can see that making sense. I don't see much purpose in swapping the contracts without up front relief, because I don't think 2021 payroll is a concern worth making that type of short run downgrade.
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Let me distill my point a bit further since I was a bit trite earlier. I like Shark, think he's a useful starter and even a guy you don't mind in your playoff rotation. I don't think he's going to be better than 3rd on the depth chart, and if that happens it's more likely others failed than he succeeded. With that in mind, this deal makes you choose between: Samardzija good AAA OF prospect who might be the next Happ decent AA SP prospect the absence of Underwood and Happ 18 million I take the latter every time, and use that money to get a similar caliber FA starter (maybe a reliever too if the deals are right), while retaining the present version of Happ.
