Transmogrified Tiger

I haven't thought about this very hard, but my initial reaction is you do what it takes to buy out a year or two of Bryant's free agency as a first step.

I've always had the impression Rizzo has a bit of a different outlook on those things because of his cancer scare, which is also reflected in his philanthropy and why he took that deal in the first place.

I'll take slightly off pawn store metaphors over the Big Dan Teague impression he was doing earlier any day.

Maybe, but they also lose Zobrist and possibly Morrow's money, with Lester and Chatwood the year after. 2 years from now you'll also have much more clarity on which of the position players you actually want to pay through arbitration(e.g. trade any/all of Schwarber, Russell, Baez if they don't improve). If they go that route you're also likely keeping Almora and Happ around, which furthers your flexibility in those years. Yeah this is my thinking too, you also potentially lose Q and Hendricks after 2020 (maybe 2021 with Hendricks?). That's a lot of money coming off, obviously you need to replace a lot of that pitching (hopefully some can be developed from within for cheap and not all needing to be bought) but they could hit the LT reset button in 2021. Also by some divine intervention there is a possibility of a Heyward opt out the next 2 offseasons or trade (obviously would have to eat some money but could reduce the overall obligation). Q has an option for 2020 so he'd have to be dead to have it declined. And at that point if you've signed Darvish you've got all 5 rotation spots handled with Darvish/Q/Hendricks/Chatwood/Lester. The bullpen looks thinner, but every bullpen is gonna look shaky 2 years out and there's a high volume of pitching in the farm system that can help there. It might end up with some sub-optimal outcomes, but I don't think Darvish hurts your ability to put together the quality of team you want.

Why? What’s the thinking here? We could add Darvish with staying under the LT this year. In 2020 they will have a lot of commitments that would make it very difficult to fit Harper, Darvish and everybody else already here, into a budget. Maybe, but they also lose Zobrist and possibly Morrow's money, with Lester and Chatwood the year after. 2 years from now you'll also have much more clarity on which of the position players you actually want to pay through arbitration(e.g. trade any/all of Schwarber, Russell, Baez if they don't improve). If they go that route you're also likely keeping Almora and Happ around, which furthers your flexibility in those years.

I woke up and saw this and was pretty underwhelmed, but I think that's because I hadn't looked at Cishek all that closely. He's been really effective the last 2 years, and getting back to the NL should only help more. I'm still a little bummed that it likely means they aren't getting something else more shiny(Reed, Davis), but we'll see how the rest plays out with the rotation.

[tweet] [/tweet] If Kintzler is going to Washington, Colome is going to St. Louis, and Holland still looks most likely to go to the Rockies, how many suitors for Davis are really left? One of the Texas teams? The Twins?

Last year Longoria was about as productive with the bat as Grichuk, and they got upwards of 5 wins from Gyorko + Wong at 2B/3B. I get that Wong isn't the picture of stability, but I'm still a bit confused that Longoria would be a priority.

Cobb, Reed, Almora+Happ+misc for Yelich, and your favorite backup C and OF is a combo that comes close but probably stays under the luxury tax.

Trading Ozuna and Stanton isn't indefensible in a vacuum, but they traded them for returns that treated the money saved as an asset, and that money is not gonna get spent, so they're forfeiting a lot of value from the roster straight to ownership.

100% agree. but it's starting to feel that way. I'm confused by all the hate for Kintzler. Is everyone that obsessed with the K rate? He's been a groundball machine his entire career, rarely walks guys, and doesn't allow many dongs. He's a FIP beater and his consistent low 3s ERA isn't fluky. We're talking about a 306 2/3-inning sample of him putting together a 3.26 ERA out of the bullpen. And his game would work better than literally everywhere else with the Cubs' elite groundball defense, and the bullpen is already full of power arms that miss bats. More than anything they could use a guy that doesn't issue walks, while also having a great track record of run prevention. There are a few guys I'd still rather have, but Kintzler would be a really solid addition to the bullpen. I think there's room to not think of K's as the end-all-be-all, and still be pretty concerned about Kintzler not striking anyone out. Out of 109 qualified relievers the last 2 years, he's 108th in K%. He'll need a multi-year deal and he's 33 now. That profile can go quickly, and if they continue to play with the DefinitelyNotJuicedBall, it adds even more risk.

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Alcantara has better stuff and worse control, like was said upstream he's more likely than not to be a reliever, and potentially a very good one. It's a good trade for the Cardinals to make, although I am happy that Ozuna is likely the best bat they'll acquire. I would guess his 2018 looks more like his 2016 than his 2017, between likely regression and a couple other minor factors(opposition, ballpark, etc). Even if not and he repeats, he's not enough even with more relievers like Colome to move the needle on the median division outcome.

They really aren't that young outside of Arcia, Hader and Philips/Brinson. All the guys that carried them last year were older and had career years (Anderson, Davies, Shaw, Santana, Thames, Sogard, etc) most are big regression candidates for me personally. I agree with that. I'm speaking organizationally. They had 7 guys in MLB's top 100 at the end of last season with others who could pop this year (Lutz, Peralta, Bickford, Gatewood. etc.). And they've got a pretty good group of young players on the major league roster. Knebel (26) was a really good closer for them. He's under control thru 2021. Nelson (28) and Davies (24) along with Hader (23) if he joins the rotation as rumored form a solid group of young controllable starters. Travis Shaw (27) is under control thru 2021. Santana (25), Arcia, (23) and Brinson (23) form a nice core of young, very good players with Villar (26) a strong bounce back candidate. If the Cards trade away a good chunk of their farm for 2 years of Ozuna and 1 of Machado, I'd say the Brewers would be in a better long term position. No real threat to the Cubs as things stand now, though, just "gaining" on them and improving as an organization. I don't have time to find the post where I tried to say this more eloquently, but they basically have to thread the needle on all those guys to make the advancement they need to make to get to the Cubs' level. They aren't at risk of falling off to 60 wins or anything, especially with the Pirates waning, but they're basically hoping to have enough young guys be sustainably okay so they can be the 2017 Cardinals and win 85 games. They don't have the stars unless someone like Hader or Brinson way overshoots their likely outcome, and even then they have to make up for Nelson's star turn last year because his arm exploded.

I hadn't given Davis any thought really, but the circumstances make sense. His injury history and age make him a poor candidate for a 4+ year deal, and on a 3 year deal teams start to prefer other options really quickly when you add in the cost of the QO pick, which the Cubs don't have to bear. Him falling to the Cubs for like 3/45 would be very nice.

Save for Reed, if that's the list then they better be really sure that Wilson is coming back strong, Maples is gonna throw more strikes, or both. The pen needs another pillar.

I don't mind Nicasio or McGee, but Reed or a trade has been top of the list for me.

Guessing that's including a premium to go play on a 96 loss team. I'm guessing this is a throwaway line, but I think the Phillies are going to be competitive in a very weak Division (-Washington). The East will be quite bad, but it wasn't all that good last year, and the Phillies also are awful light on good players. They need more than a couple above average players to be competitive.

The headline is sensationalized, but a good reminder to never ever trust a pitcher. [tweet] [/tweet]

Guessing that's including a premium to go play on a 96 loss team.

He definitely hedges a bit, but that's a hard sell for me. Regardless of Smyly the odds of viable spot-starters should go up as the season progresses with more time for the likes of Tseng/Mills/Alzolay/etc to make a mark.

Would think we are targeting a more durable option for the 5th spot? I was thinking maybe a shorter term option is on the table, now that I look at the rentals Corbin is the only name that would conceivably make sense.

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

This is terrific. https://www.sbnation.com/a/sports-year-in-review-2017/mlb-has-no-idea-how-to-use-bullpens-in-playoffs

The more Cubs-specific news is that if Machado is available, then their relievers almost certainly are too. Britton, Brach, and possibly Givens are all fits.