Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Yeah, if you were to try to craft a narrative, Darvish not only probably doesn't want to go to Minnesota, but they don't have the financial might to push a Cubs offer higher, so he's waiting for the Yankees to somehow gain the flexibility to either take their offer or use it as leverage against the Cubs. If that were true the cascading effect would probably mean very bad news for Arrieta, and maybe make him the guy considering an in-season hold out that Passan mentioned. -
I was thinking 5/100 with 25M the first 2 and an opt out after that would be real good. The odds of someone else stepping up to offer him 25M AAV or a 6th year seem unlikely at this point. An opt out after 2 makes sure he's part of the pitch to the class of 2019/Harper, and if he opts out you have a built in LT reprieve if you have an internal candidate of quality.
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Morrow, Cishek, and a full year of (hopefully) not-2017 Wilson is a fair amount of turnover too. You can quibble that the names are the wrong names, but 3 of the top 5 relievers being new from April 2017 to 2018 is significant.
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Related to this: [tweet] [/tweet]
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This is the permutation I think about, because Wilson, Montgomery, and the LH eating righties we have(Edwards, Morrow, kinda Strop) mean there isn't a whole lot of need for a LOOGY in particular. If you're going with Montgomery to the rotation AND Duensing is the reliever(and not someone more expensive/higher caliber), then you're probably using more resources on position players, of which there are very few permutations that make a great deal of sense. Trading for Machado is one of them, but others like trading for Yelich or signing Cain don't seem to square very well with signing Duensing to let Montgomery start. Maybe it's putting Grimm on the chopping block as the 8th man in the pen and getting someone like Cobb and trying for Yelich? I don't want to extrapolate too much over 3.5 million for Duensing, but it's still confusing.
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Confusing.
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3.5 years v. 2 years
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You have the info to post it....
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That guy writes for Fangraphs.
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There also exists a world in which Tommy Pham craters like Josh Harrison and Rizzo and Bryant combine for 3 more wins than 2017(like they did in 2016). I'm gonna write a blog post titled "how close are the Cardinals to the Cubs" and use that reality to conclude the Cubs are about 15 games clear of them.
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[tweet] [/tweet] That is...not how projections work. "If the Cardinals' best players hit their 90% projection and everything else between the 2 teams is at 50%, then the Cubs are only a couple wins ahead" is not worthwhile analysis. If your point is "there exists a world in which the Cubs and Cardinals can come out equal or with the Cardinals ahead", that's a point that should be internalized by everyone. That is not what anyone talks about when they talk about projections or team quality.
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McCutchen at 1/15 doesn't have a lot of value, so the return doesn't surprise me too much. Seems like the Pirates plan is to: - Hope a couple of their higher end prospects pan out(Polanco, Bell, Meadows, Taillon, Glasnow) - Shore up their roster to eliminate glaring holes(getting Moran and Musgrove instead of a higher end piece for Cole) - Use their pitching infrastructure/Searage to make their bullpen top notch. With successes like Melancon, Nicasio, Watson, and Rivero, it's easy to see the appeal of Feliz and Crick(along with the extended Rivero) helping to create a back end pen that doesn't bleed any wins. They aren't close to being competitive in this landscape, but I think that approach can work, especially since outright tanking or getting higher ceiling prospects further away hurts a lot at the box office. And extra especially since they've shown an ability to get the most out of pitchers so they aren't as screwed by being unable to sign a Darvish or Lester.
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They didn't have much of a choice, but the Giants are really leaning into the path the Tigers went down a few years back.
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Also they'd show you the money right now but it actually goes to a different school that's far away.
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[tweet]https://twitter.com/scottyhop76/status/952305385729413122[/tweet] Willson is the sports fandom version of having a puppy.
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Also, that's not that bad a package for the Pirates. There's no superstar potential headliner, but the Cubs equivalent is in the neighborhood of Happ, Montgomery, Maples, and a prospect. I can respect the idea that if you're trading Cole it's a somewhat rare opportunity to add star-level upside, but from a value perspective you aren't going to do too much better for 2 years of Cole coming off a down year with eleventeen starting pitchers still available in free agency.
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Quintana is better and we have him about twice as long.
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[tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet]
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My understanding is he'll start in the pen but they also want him to start as the year progresses. It's kinda like they're using him as a hedge against both the rotation and the pen(both are lacking in top end options), which is understandable to not throw a bunch of money at a SP and then not have the innings, but also real risky since Reyes hasn't shown an ability to throw strikes as a starter.
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I'm more surprised the Cardinals didn't make that happen. Gregerson, Lyons, and Cecil are all fine to good relievers, but Reed anchoring that pen would've made a pretty big difference and none of those 3 should've posed an obstacle to adding a closer. I guess they're counting on Reyes really bolstering things when he gets to the big leagues in May.
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In the abstract I'd have given Reed that for sure. Morrow + Cishek + maybe Darvish v. Morrow + Reed + stronger maybe Cobb is a debate worth having, although Reed's willingness to come to a team that signed Morrow is probably a factor.
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Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek for 2/$13M
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
TIL Cishek is 6-6 [tweet] [/tweet] -
Cubs arbitration eligibles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think you're being too conservative about this, they don't need an extra 5 million in buffer for guys coming up on DL stints. If they had no intention of exceeding 15M AAV then the rumors on Darvish wouldn't be as strong as they are, the arb estimates matched up nearly exactly with reality so it's not like anything has materially changed since the Darvish pursuit began. -
Cubs arbitration eligibles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
FWIW, you gain an extra million by using the real numbers and not rounding to the hundred thousands. If you assume Caratini at backup C, Montgomery as the 5th starter, and a 4 man bench you have 36.8 million to play with. Considering that a 4 man bench is more than within reach if you aren't trading any of the young position players, it seems plenty reasonable to sign Darvish and grab a backup catcher for Rivera money and still be the better part of 10 million under the LT. I believe the true amounts are based on actual dollars paid(meaning deadline acquisitions would count for a fraction of their AAV), so 10 million is probably on the higher end of the buffer you might want to have. -
Cubs arbitration eligibles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Should have just non tendered him instead. I wonder if we were fine going to the top end of what he'd get/request and we just tried to come in a decent amount lower since he sucked ass last year and feel a compelling argument can be made in our favor in arbitration if it goes there but if we "lose" it's not a crazy number to go to. Grimm is also the most fungible player on the roster, so if he wins and if that dollar amount happened to be prohibitive(I doubt the max 1 million delta is gonna do it anyway), then you can cut him for an NRI without much lost.
