Transmogrified Tiger
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Also, it remains so silly that the idea that 'you might have more good players than you can afford 3 years from now' is considered a risk. Sure maybe you don't have the flexibility to extend a guy that far out, but it's just as much a feature in case Russell or Schwarber's bat doesn't come back around. Then you just trade or in a worst case non-tender them and all of a sudden your financial worries disappear. And it can't be repeated enough that these downsides are in a situation where you have a four headed monster of Rizzo, Bryant, Harper, and Contreras terrorizing opponents. Who gives a rip if the 5th best slugger in your lineup is Schwarber or Happ if those are your headliners?
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At the moment, the 3 most important/valuable position players are Bryant, Rizzo, and Contreras. Contreras would be under control for 4 years of Harper, Bryant and Rizzo for 3. Even if it meant you eventually choose between Bryce Harper and the arb years of someone like Schwarber or Russell, you very obviously pick Harper over them.
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
Sounds good to me. The stricter proposal is preferable anyway(and the reset for stepping off the rubber is a huge loophole either way), and the union gets to show they're pissed off and project that they're going to fight the owners on other things which should be much more consequential than the pace of play stuff which should make games better. -
Yeah, if you were to try to craft a narrative, Darvish not only probably doesn't want to go to Minnesota, but they don't have the financial might to push a Cubs offer higher, so he's waiting for the Yankees to somehow gain the flexibility to either take their offer or use it as leverage against the Cubs. If that were true the cascading effect would probably mean very bad news for Arrieta, and maybe make him the guy considering an in-season hold out that Passan mentioned.
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I was thinking 5/100 with 25M the first 2 and an opt out after that would be real good. The odds of someone else stepping up to offer him 25M AAV or a 6th year seem unlikely at this point. An opt out after 2 makes sure he's part of the pitch to the class of 2019/Harper, and if he opts out you have a built in LT reprieve if you have an internal candidate of quality.
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Morrow, Cishek, and a full year of (hopefully) not-2017 Wilson is a fair amount of turnover too. You can quibble that the names are the wrong names, but 3 of the top 5 relievers being new from April 2017 to 2018 is significant.
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Related to this: [tweet] [/tweet]
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This is the permutation I think about, because Wilson, Montgomery, and the LH eating righties we have(Edwards, Morrow, kinda Strop) mean there isn't a whole lot of need for a LOOGY in particular. If you're going with Montgomery to the rotation AND Duensing is the reliever(and not someone more expensive/higher caliber), then you're probably using more resources on position players, of which there are very few permutations that make a great deal of sense. Trading for Machado is one of them, but others like trading for Yelich or signing Cain don't seem to square very well with signing Duensing to let Montgomery start. Maybe it's putting Grimm on the chopping block as the 8th man in the pen and getting someone like Cobb and trying for Yelich? I don't want to extrapolate too much over 3.5 million for Duensing, but it's still confusing.
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Confusing.
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3.5 years v. 2 years
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You have the info to post it....
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That guy writes for Fangraphs.
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There also exists a world in which Tommy Pham craters like Josh Harrison and Rizzo and Bryant combine for 3 more wins than 2017(like they did in 2016). I'm gonna write a blog post titled "how close are the Cardinals to the Cubs" and use that reality to conclude the Cubs are about 15 games clear of them.
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[tweet] [/tweet] That is...not how projections work. "If the Cardinals' best players hit their 90% projection and everything else between the 2 teams is at 50%, then the Cubs are only a couple wins ahead" is not worthwhile analysis. If your point is "there exists a world in which the Cubs and Cardinals can come out equal or with the Cardinals ahead", that's a point that should be internalized by everyone. That is not what anyone talks about when they talk about projections or team quality.
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McCutchen at 1/15 doesn't have a lot of value, so the return doesn't surprise me too much. Seems like the Pirates plan is to: - Hope a couple of their higher end prospects pan out(Polanco, Bell, Meadows, Taillon, Glasnow) - Shore up their roster to eliminate glaring holes(getting Moran and Musgrove instead of a higher end piece for Cole) - Use their pitching infrastructure/Searage to make their bullpen top notch. With successes like Melancon, Nicasio, Watson, and Rivero, it's easy to see the appeal of Feliz and Crick(along with the extended Rivero) helping to create a back end pen that doesn't bleed any wins. They aren't close to being competitive in this landscape, but I think that approach can work, especially since outright tanking or getting higher ceiling prospects further away hurts a lot at the box office. And extra especially since they've shown an ability to get the most out of pitchers so they aren't as screwed by being unable to sign a Darvish or Lester.
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They didn't have much of a choice, but the Giants are really leaning into the path the Tigers went down a few years back.
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Also they'd show you the money right now but it actually goes to a different school that's far away.
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[tweet]https://twitter.com/scottyhop76/status/952305385729413122[/tweet] Willson is the sports fandom version of having a puppy.
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Also, that's not that bad a package for the Pirates. There's no superstar potential headliner, but the Cubs equivalent is in the neighborhood of Happ, Montgomery, Maples, and a prospect. I can respect the idea that if you're trading Cole it's a somewhat rare opportunity to add star-level upside, but from a value perspective you aren't going to do too much better for 2 years of Cole coming off a down year with eleventeen starting pitchers still available in free agency.
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Quintana is better and we have him about twice as long.
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[tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet]
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My understanding is he'll start in the pen but they also want him to start as the year progresses. It's kinda like they're using him as a hedge against both the rotation and the pen(both are lacking in top end options), which is understandable to not throw a bunch of money at a SP and then not have the innings, but also real risky since Reyes hasn't shown an ability to throw strikes as a starter.
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I'm more surprised the Cardinals didn't make that happen. Gregerson, Lyons, and Cecil are all fine to good relievers, but Reed anchoring that pen would've made a pretty big difference and none of those 3 should've posed an obstacle to adding a closer. I guess they're counting on Reyes really bolstering things when he gets to the big leagues in May.
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In the abstract I'd have given Reed that for sure. Morrow + Cishek + maybe Darvish v. Morrow + Reed + stronger maybe Cobb is a debate worth having, although Reed's willingness to come to a team that signed Morrow is probably a factor.
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Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek for 2/$13M
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
TIL Cishek is 6-6 [tweet] [/tweet]
