Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Cubs arbitration eligibles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think you're being too conservative about this, they don't need an extra 5 million in buffer for guys coming up on DL stints. If they had no intention of exceeding 15M AAV then the rumors on Darvish wouldn't be as strong as they are, the arb estimates matched up nearly exactly with reality so it's not like anything has materially changed since the Darvish pursuit began. -
Cubs arbitration eligibles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
FWIW, you gain an extra million by using the real numbers and not rounding to the hundred thousands. If you assume Caratini at backup C, Montgomery as the 5th starter, and a 4 man bench you have 36.8 million to play with. Considering that a 4 man bench is more than within reach if you aren't trading any of the young position players, it seems plenty reasonable to sign Darvish and grab a backup catcher for Rivera money and still be the better part of 10 million under the LT. I believe the true amounts are based on actual dollars paid(meaning deadline acquisitions would count for a fraction of their AAV), so 10 million is probably on the higher end of the buffer you might want to have. -
Cubs arbitration eligibles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Should have just non tendered him instead. I wonder if we were fine going to the top end of what he'd get/request and we just tried to come in a decent amount lower since he sucked ass last year and feel a compelling argument can be made in our favor in arbitration if it goes there but if we "lose" it's not a crazy number to go to. Grimm is also the most fungible player on the roster, so if he wins and if that dollar amount happened to be prohibitive(I doubt the max 1 million delta is gonna do it anyway), then you can cut him for an NRI without much lost. -
Cubs arbitration eligibles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Whoops, I thought I had used the MLBTR estimates on my spreadsheet, must've rounded everything up to be conservative. -
It looks like some manufacturer misprint that got sold to some wholesaler at pennies on the dollar. Outside of the typo it seems the same as the replicas they were selling for several times as much, right?
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I tried finding a way to make a dead offseason/nihilist arby's joke but it's friday and my brain is tired. Anyway, Wilson signed for 4.25 million [tweet] [/tweet] That's 750k under MLBTR's estimate.
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Darvish's MLBTR projection was 6/160, so that's basically only taking a year away. Arrieta's projection was 4/100. I think if they're getting less than anticipated you're talking about Darvish maybe dipping into 4 years, and Arrieta definitely not getting 9 figures.
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The last 2 years, Yelich has been worth 9 fWAR and has a .370+ OBP. I think Happ/Almora will be above average and could approach Yelich's production in an optimistic outcome, but Yelich is a clear upgrade.
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Dexter worked in Miami, he'd see the upside.
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You'd need to find a way to sell off Zobrist. The alternative is Russell for a SP, Happ/Almora+ for Yelich + Castro
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We're gonna get Darvish for about 3/45 at this rate.
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
Cameron has his blind spots like all of us, but most of the reason folks dislike him is that he could get obnoxious in how he communicated some ideas. I think he's a reasonably bright guy, if not one that has an overly specialized skill set for a MLB front office. That said, getting hired by AJ Preller is not exactly a huge feather in one's cap. -
and what's with him hitting off a tee, a 6 year old can do that but I know Kyle can hit 95 mph fastballs That's... not the same thing. If Kyle is deadlifting 135lbs, he's doing 100 reps. The point was that someone had one second to show him weightlifting in a video and chose an unimpressive weight. I was mostly just messing with you, but there's a nugget of truth that training and improving doesn't require the most impressive physical achievements all the time, so I don't really notice it in a hype video about his training. I think there might be two 45 plates on each side too, but I'm not much of a weight lifter so I'll take your word for it.
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and what's with him hitting off a tee, a 6 year old can do that but I know Kyle can hit 95 mph fastballs
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They've been able to bank about 10 WAR per year from Harper and Murphy alone. Neither their system nor the 30-35 million they currently spend on those two are going to bridge that gap once they're both free agents, that's the point being made. The point isn't that the Nationals are going to be terrible, the point is they are almost certainly going to get worse by a fair amount unless they want to push the limits on luxury tax penalties. Given the Lerners are so thrifty to be as deferral-obsessed as they are, I can't imagine that's something they'd be interested in doing in general, and especially if anything is remotely imperfect(Bryce Walks, one of Scherzer/Strasburg gets hurt in '18, etc).
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Grimm has already been tendered, and no, he is out of options.
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Wouldn't the CLTV appearance be the exciting info? Especially since the excited info tweet was threaded about his plans for Cubs Convention?
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The Nationals are over the LT today and most of the money they free up next year is in their best players(Harper, Murphy, Gio, Madson). I'm not sure how keen the Lerner's are to live over the tax(considering their love of deferred money, they probably don't love it), but signing a big SP would seem to make 2018 a last hurrah, since it would hurt their ability to keep together the parts of the team(all of it) that are less deep than the rotation.
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On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Just eyeballing it quickly, he probably would've earned a couple million more in total through this year, and he would've been a free agent after 2018. He'll get 3/45 for 2019-21 so that's where the gap will grow pretty substantial. All in all, if we're just talking about the years of Rizzo's current deal, he probably would've gotten an additional 50 million playing out the string. -
Would've been real nice to have that obvious fumble(that was a decent bet to be returned for a TD) in the first half actually be reviewable right before Tennessee kicked a field goal. Also would've been real nice to make that 40 yard field goal in the 3rd quarter.
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How many teams, regardless of the pitcher, are interested in giving out a 17+ million AAV to a SP this offseason? The Cubs and Twins seem like the only teams really interested in playing in those waters, with Houston, Texas, St. Louis, and Milwaukee playing coy about it. And those maybe teams are probably way less interested in Cobb in particular at that price.
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John Mulaney has a stand-up bit about getting excited to go to McDonald's on a road trip as a kid, then his dad ordered one black coffee and drove away.
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let no one say the slow offseason doesn't have its benefits
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Why would they have to be traded? Almora continues to crush lefties and Happ takes on the Zobrist role. Spending tens of millions on Cain when you haven't traded any of the position players seems like a real inefficient use of the money. I'd rather have Darvish + nothing than Cobb + Cain.
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Sadly, short of someone eating a significant portion of Heyward's contract it's probably not possible. You can probably bribe someone with a prospect to take Zobrist's contract and make it a bit easier, but you also need to thread the needle on the pitching side too. All of the SP need to look like rotation guys for 2019, none of the important and/or high dollar relievers can blow up, and having someone internally(Maples? Mills? Mekkes?) look capable of a steady bullpen role would help too.
