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Transmogrified Tiger

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  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    Tough to make that argument when they dropped 33 million AAV to fill out the rotation and 19 million on 3 relievers plus another 5 million for a rehabbing Smyly. Could they have gone higher and gotten a different reliever? Probably, although those appreciably higher than Cishek might have wanted the closer role. Diminishing returns are a very real thing and it's really hard for me to say that dollars kept the Cubs from being any better than they are(which is one of the 2-3 best teams in MLB on paper).
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    - Montgomery makes more starts than 2 of the current rotation due to injury - Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, and Schwarber all post wOBAs north of .370 - Edwards gets used in Andrew Miller like fashion down the stretch as the team's best reliever, Duensing is off the roster by August
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    edit: nevermind it was already linked in this thread viewtopic.php?p=243166#p243166
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    I can see that, in fairness you can really do this with any number of teams because pitching is so fickle. I wrote this elsewhere about a month ago and it still applies.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    I really can’t see that, their division is so bad and their offense is good enough and they at least have depth for pitching/pieces left to trade for it (if/when regression hits) that I just can’t see them missing the playoffs. It might only take 85-88 wins to win that division and even if they hit their low end upper projections of low 90s wins they will win that division going away. I could easily see the regression hit and then just being an okay team but still think they have a solid margin of error over the division even with their pitcher regression baked in. Yeah I don't think they'll lose the division, although LA and Seattle are decent enough that they could get breaks going their way a la Arizona/Colorado last year. I'm just really bearish on that rotation, I look at those depth chart projections and I'd take the under on every one of their SP. Toss in some hangover from the bats(or just BABIP regression in the case of Gonzalez/Correa/Altuve) and I think they'll be playing meaningful September games. It's not the most likely outcome, but you can see a world where Verlander tanks, Cole gets hurt, and Keuchel's ERA catches up to his FIP without too much trouble, and all of a sudden you're looking at a rotation full of league average types.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    [tweet] [/tweet]
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    I'm not gutsy enough to pick them to miss the playoffs, and in the medium term they're still very good, but the Astros hangover effect and pitching regression is gonna lead to a lot of hot takes.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    That's what opt-outs are for. Sign a 10/400 deal and have an opt out after a few years in case salaries rise dramatically.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    Correa will hit free agency a year older, and quite frankly, he doesn't have the ceiling that Harper does. It's much more likely that by free agency that Correa is basically a poor-man's Josh Donaldson. Plenty good, but not a an MVP caliber talent.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    I sincerely hope that Michael Porter Jr. is only 65% healthy like he's said because he looks terrible. Slow moving, shot is off, and worst of all his decision making is horrible.
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    [tweet] [/tweet]
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    Contreras just murdered a ball to LF off Reynaldo Lopez
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    Really? Anthony Bass is the guy they take? I think I'd prefer Eddie Butler for that last spot. It was the Athletic so I won't post it all here but the long and short of it is that Butler sucks despite his stuff because of his lack of deception or command, and Bass might be a guy who just needs to change his pitch mix (more sliders and more high fastballs) to be successful. The other thing that I found noteworthy from that column was the point that they had success doing this with Duensing last year. I don't have a particular fondness for Bass and didn't think Grimm was a big problem, but with Grimm gone and considering that I'm a pretty big Butler skeptic, I'm not opposed to giving the 8th bullpen spot to someone else the front office seems to like. I did kinda like the idea of Butler helping to give Montgomery's role more definition though.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    Just to put some numbers to it, NL Central teams averaged 26 extra innings(innings, not games) last year, with 7 of those innings coming in the 12th or later. Both of those numbers are rounded up. It's simply not a 'problem' worth changing the dynamics of the game to fix.
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    Seattle has a 1-0 advantage heading into the away leg and are probably playing the worst team of the 3, so they have a decent shot. Although for reasons that aren't quite known, Lodeiro didn't travel with the team.
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    Darvish's hesitation is a balk. The odds of it being called are very low, but he's not moving anything when he stops his leg.
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    Unless Grimm's stuff looks degraded I'd need to see a lot more gap between his performance and Butler's before I start to prefer Butler. It doesn't look like anyone else is particularly covering themselves in glory to take that spot either. I don't think they really care about the less than 2 mil difference of keeping Grimm, not as a primary motivation at least.
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    [tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet] If we're going full on nostalgia of Pirates-lunacy, my favorite is this game(a Jake start too!): https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN201608290.shtml The game thread is entertaining to revisit as well: viewtopic.php?f=26&t=908&start=375
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    2-0 in the world series! Personally swatting down whatever that little thing was that the Pirates had going on for a couple of years. This will be the enduring Arrieta memory for me. First playoff appearance of the Theo era, franchise on a 9 game playoff losing streak, wild card winner-take-all game on the road. He crushed their souls so badly they threw at him just to try and get him off his rhythm. Arrieta responded by stealing second base, and then finishing the last 3 innings of the complete game shutout.
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    FWIW, ZiPS has them on par or maybe even better than the Brewers, although admittedly even with my doubts, ZiPS undersells Milwaukee.
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    You're right, when I saw that in double checking I thought Davis was under 50 million. The 50 million distinction is if you're a revenue sharing recipient, so Arrieta would be comp round B regardless. Dumb question but...where does round B fall then? That's the round Bobson is quoting above. If I'm reading the current draft order right(clearly not a guarantee!) the Cubs should have back to back picks, #76 and #77. Those will come after their regularly scheduled 1st round(#24) and 2nd round(#63) picks. The later picks referenced might shift slightly depending on the remaining FA like Cobb(and maybe Lynn).
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    The amount determines the round. If it's over 50 million it's the comp round between round 1 and 2, less than that it's the comp round between rounds 2 and 3. It's the approximate difference in getting pick 33 or 73. Aren’t they receiving the 75th pick (or around that) for Davis, who signed for over $50 million? You're right, when I saw that in double checking I thought Davis was under 50 million. The 50 million distinction is if you're a revenue sharing recipient, so Arrieta would be comp round B regardless.
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Does it matter for us? I was under the impression he just had to sign to max out our compensation. Yeah he just has to sign for the Cubs to get a pick. Doesn't matter what the amount is. The amount determines the round. If it's over 50 million it's the comp round between round 1 and 2, less than that it's the comp round between rounds 2 and 3. It's the approximate difference in getting pick 33 or 73.
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    Come on, be over 50 mil
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    Maddon has said that immigrants were 'saving' his home town and pissed off that town in the process. More recently he said 'it doesn't make any sense' to own an automatic rifle. I don't believe or expect Maddon to be a paragon of progressive politics, but the extrapolation that some folks have done to one of his comments is silly. More to the point, I think Joe Maddon is a great manager. I am also getting tired of his 'always on' method of being a great manager since the media eats this stuff up and reports it at every turn.
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