Transmogrified Tiger

I don't think this is *likely* because I think Hoyer loves the comp pick as much as he loves shorter term deals, but it does make me wonder again about Nimmo. I don't think he's going to be a steal, but between the comp pick, his top line salary demands, and his injury history there's a lot of teams that could get weeded out of that sweepstakes. If he starts looking at being more of a 4/95 type guy, I wonder if the front office might see that as a good fit. 1. He's a LHH that can really hit. Career 134 wRC+(for comparison Correa is 130), and since the pandemic he's had plus BB/K numbers to go with it. 2. He fills a spot of need in CF, especially if they don't love Morel out there(Morel's history and MLB metrics would agree). UZR doesn't love Nimmo but OAA thinks he's plus, and worst case he has the bat to slide to LF and allow PCA to be the one to replace Happ to continue to prioritize defense. 3. His injury history is potentially a gamble worth taking. Here's Nimmo's fWAR per 150 games the last 5 seasons: 5.4, 5.4, 4.6, 3.0, 5.1 for an average of 4.7(for comparison Correa is 5.3). Yes, you run the risk that he doesn't accrue value like another player, but OF is a place where the existing floor is decent and you can take that risk as the cost of getting a manageable contract for a player with star-level production. He would also make sense in the context of other rumors being tossed around. Abreu + Nimmo are two excellent bats to add from each side of the plate that bring damage without a lot of plate approach risk, and Senga + Smyly/Kluber/etc would seem to match up from an AAV perspective to fit all of that(plus a C & RP help) safely under the LT.

Haji over Pepi is surprising. If you think of it that Ferreira and Sargent would be considered higher up the pecking order, then having a stylistic change for late game situations make sense. Haji over Pefok is a bit surprising, but maybe he rates Haji's defensive/pressing work more highly. I also didn't think he would bring Ream back after so long away from the team(and an intentional tactical choice that emphasizes Ream's risk), but you have to bring somebody and with Richards/Robinson hurt the gap from Ream to McKenzie/EPB isn't much. Mildly surprised at Moore over Cannon given how the latter was preferred in 3 back setups, and also figured that Arriola would get the call before Morris though I think that's the smart call for the tournament given the roster.

Maybe this is my coping mechanism then because boy do I really not like giving Swanson 20+ million. It could make sense for say, the Phillies, but this team is so low on firepower that spending that chunk of change on a guy with 1 full season of above average hitting to his name just strikes me as a different flavor of the Jeff Blauser mistake from all those years ago. I'd honestly rather just spread it all around and/or take more chances on prospects coming through.

This made me curious what could fit in an offseason where you aren't getting one of the SS. I came up with Extend Nico (10M AAV) and Happ(16M) Sign 2 SP, e.g. Senga (16M) and Smyly(8) Sign a bat, probably Abreu (18M) Sign a C, e.g. Narvaez (8M) Sign a CF, e.g. Bellinger (12M) Sign a couple RP That gets you to a level of spending I think is within the likely range, maybe still a bit light depending on specifics(e.g. you can splurge a little on RP). Is this my idea of an ideal plan of action? No. I think this only makes sense if the FO is deathly allergic to long term deals, and it could also make a little sense in the context of 1) really prioritizing pitching depth(~25M on SP and no outgoings) 2) believing in Madrigal and/or wanting to keep Morel on the infield 3) keeping powder dry for next offseason when the team is better and Heyward/Hendricks are essentially a free extra 35 million to go nuts for your player of choice(Ohtani for the rarity? Devers for the age?). But it seems a lot simpler to me to suck it up on your SS of choice(especially since Correa in particular is 28 and his value plays fine at 3B) and make do with lesser/speculative options elsewhere to make it fit.

Western Kentucky gonna win by 150 this weekend

All respect to Sahadev but he is one of several people in that article who are trying to pretend that Ohtani has Soto trade value instead of Mookie trade value.

Varsho is 26, has 4 years of control, and was the best player on the roster last year by fWAR(and best OF by a long ways). It's never been clear why they'd entertain trade offers for him unless they were confident he was about to tank, when has that type of trade happened before?

I'm always curious who qualifies in writers' heads for that type of subjective filter. Someone like Bieber qualifies without question. Does Pablo Lopez? Not sure who else would be in that pool of players that has had any type of trade chatter.

If you could get Bellinger for cheaper than Bell though, wouldn't that make more sense? I know there's more uncertainty around Bellinger's bat, but defensively, he gives you more versatility than Bell, especially with his ability to play CF well. That should free up some money for the bullpen at least. I don't think there's a whole lot of difference in Bellinger's 1 year deal and a 12-13M AAV for Bell. You do gain the defensive flexibility and competency at a premium position, but you also lose the offensive certainty, BB/K profile, and can more easily hide a lesser player in CF via Morel.

I....don't think this is how it works? A couple of the quote tweets confidently refer to taking the present value of deferrals and incorporating that into the AAV/CBT calc, which might change it but only in a very minor sense. If Diaz's CBT number isn't 20, I think it should be pretty close to 20(especially in the current interest rate environment, as one QT notes).

Yes, I've been waiting for these. Some quick reactions: - Nothing in the Turner/Correa contracts that scares me away, I'm happy to see it's not assumed they'll get all the way to 35M on top of mega-years. - I'm pretty intrigued by the consensus of where Bell is going to be, if it's at all possible he gets to the 2/25 range that could be a pretty smart move - If Rodon ends up being accurate that's probably at the edge of what I'd consider possible that Jed would hand a FA SP, so fun to at least have that as a hypothetically realistic option. - Like seeing no 5 years or > 15M for Senga - Kiermaier getting a little more than I'd hope to see, but not dramatically so. Maybe the injury scares some teams off? - The Narvaez/Vazquez contracts look fair and reasonable

In the last 6 years: 5 division titles (the one miss was 2020) 6 ALCS apps 4 pennants (one of the two misses was 2020) 2 World Series (assuming no issues with 2017) It's an arbitrary term, but if those were my team's credentials I would probably be using it.

Just eyeballing the Roster Resource page, aside from Diaz, the Mets are shedding 80-85 million of LT payroll, of which Diaz now eats up 10 million(the difference in his 2022 salary and new LT value). Of that 80-85 million, they are losing their starting CF, 4 SP, and over 300 relief IP. Granted, that 85 million is unlikely to be a cap with their ownership, and they may set a record for QO picks in an offseason. But that is a lot to replace on the pitching side(and they don't have a wave of arms near MLB ready) and they were a pretty old team to begin with. There's some sneaky collapse risk if they don't nail the offseason, and there's at least a question of how much Cohen will be willing to push the envelope(and even then, for more 30+ pitchers?)

This is becoming a broken record, but again off a lefty.

Mason Mount showing up to the Wakanda Forever premiere like he's 5 images deep into a 'for every like I'll photoshop Mount's clothes bigger' thread

The titans of Scotland finish the group stage 0-10-2, with 6 goals for and 37 against.

okay but if I put this tweet I found from buffaloesorix43928491842 through google translate it says he is a peerless defender with the heart of a condor, so seems like there's good arguments on both sides

All I need is one random person claiming he can play a legit CF and I’ll be on board to an obnoxious level

I think the bigger shock was the fact that he's just foregoing the $20 million he would have gotten from Colorado if he opted out. That money now goes to the Cards to pay the rest of his deal. He really only would have had to get a contract exactly like what he already has to increase his intake by $20 million. Just seems like an odd move for someone who clearly tried to max out what he was getting previously. Maybe he just likes being in the land of the unvaxxed and not getting a ration of horsefeathers for it too. I haven't seen anything indicating Arenado would've gotten more for opting out like that. He has 20 million in deferred 2021 salary he's owed, but that deferral isn't on top of his previous salaries, it's overdue salary from years already past. Is there another 20 million that Cot's doesn't seem to be referencing?

There was some Cubs Twitter gnashing of teeth about Arenado not opting out to at least extract a bigger deal from the Cardinals, and while that wouldn't have surprised me I don't quite get the shock. Yes, he's coming off an incredible year, but he's also turning 32 at the start of next season. Is another team going to give him 6 years at his current or greater AAV? I'd argue almost certainly not. Could he have upped the amount he gets over 5 years? Probably, but not without its risks. While someone probably could've gotten to about 5/160 over the course of free agency, that's only 15 million difference in absolute terms, and even less when you consider TVM given his current deal is front-loaded. And most importantly, you don't know what team that will be. It's clear from hearing Arenado talk that he places high value on being on a contender after 8 years in the Colorado wilderness, so the idea of extracting ~10% more just to potentially go do so for the Rangers or w/e isn't terribly appealing.

Where did you see that the shoulder injury requires surgery?

lol not only did Diaz lean way into that pitch but it was gonna be a strike

I don't want to come off as a scold about this because fan however you want, and I'm not trying to hold you to the specifics as the only way to get what you want, but if you do game that out you'll see it's a very different exercise. Using some rough estimates for the FA you didn't specify, the team in that example is about 15 million over the luxury tax, on top of trading away PCA, Alcantara, Mervis, Ballesteros, and whatever the cost is for Varsho and Perdomo(Baseball Trade Values suggests that Davis + Hernandez + Caissie + Kilian is in the ballpark but maybe a little short). Do you think the Cubs are going to be a non-trivial chunk over the LT line in 2023? Do you think they're going to trade(without loss of generality) 6 of their top 10 prospects? Not even trying to argue if that's a good plan or if the trades are worthwhile or whatever, just does this seem like remotely something that could play out in practice? I'd say definitely not, and that's fine, but what I (and several others) are attempting to do is play within those lines of something that could happen. Because we're operating under those constraints, those plans are naturally going to be objectively worse than those we can dream up without those constraints.

We need a Rockies version of this tweet

All new acquisitions are gonna have risk. You can gamble that a guy had a down year is gonna bounce back or otherwise improve, you can gamble that the guy coming off a good year isn't gonna hamstring the team by requiring 1-2 more years on his contract, you can gamble that the expensive trade target is truly worth the cost, or you can gamble that paying a bit more and investing less in other areas doesn't burn you for not getting more/quality depth. I personally think that in general we overweight the recent past, so I'm definitely more likely to be interested in folks with reasons for improvement, especially when we have a more firm understanding of how much $ there is to work with or what is reasonable to expect the front office to trade away in this particular offseason. We're talking about trading a 30 y/o with unremarkable stuff and an uncertain path to the 26 man roster for someone earning a couple million bucks, or some similar flavor of investment. Not touching your actual prospect capital and using less than 10% of the money you have to spend isn't much 'priority', and half the alternatives I mentioned are credible OFs too. As for the other concerns, adding Correa & Bellinger/Kiermaier helps with athleticism, those guys plus Narvaez help the defense, and Narvaez/Bellinger are fly ball hitters(I admittedly don't care about this as much as you do). You can't address every concern with every addition. I'd encourage you to game out the entirety of the moves you'd like to see made, and see where you end up in terms of total payroll and trade assets given up. It's a hard puzzle to fit into likely reality.