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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    The only player from the 2022 draft to play pro games for more than a week was McGeary, the 15th rounder who didn't get bonus pool money. Only 1 of the 9 guys to get bonus pool money played pro games at all(Paciolla). Haven't we followed the draft and minor leagues long enough to know that sweeping declarative statements about draftees/draft classes is only good for looking foolish later
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    Actually, he still has the option to refuse to accept the outright assignment and declare free agency. Based on the framing from the tweets I maybe mistakenly assumed that step had taken place, but yeah. Considering he was available to teams at bare minimum terms I have to imagine odds are against him refusing the assignment.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    Leiter Jr. cleared waivers and was outrighted, so he stays in the organization.
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    Kinda surprised the Astros haven't already done it, they haven't replaced Verlander with a similar rotation anchor and it's the exact type of amoral move they specialize in.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think Swanson will play *every day*(he's missed 2 games in the last 3 seasons), be a good defender, is gonna hit for his share of power(especially in Wrigley), and should steal a sneaky amount of bases(especially with new rules). That puts his floor around a 3-3.5 win player barring injury. That's good, but that's also the type of overall production you pay Jameson Taillon 17 million to put up. The unknowns for me are if his batting average/BABIP will stay high enough to be a 115 wRC+ guy instead of 100-105, and if his defense is elite vs. just good. Those are the things that take him from 3 win floor to repeating his 6 win 2022.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    the Anthony Richardson as a first rounder stuff is a joke that no one wants to admit is a joke, right
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    Lee was 45, Collier was 70.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    No relation to famous character actress Margo Martindale
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    I would go as far to say that it's pick one, given the potential for bonuses(especially Mancini's) and other unknowns with getting to the exact LT amount. My preference is extending Hoerner, trading Madrigal for a 5M caliber reliever, and going over at the deadline if you really must to be competitive, but admittedly there's non-public details(Hoerner's asks, Madrigal's league wide interest) that could torpedo that plan pretty quickly.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    Mancini also had a 116 wRC+ as late in the year as September 17th(in 538 PA so a starter's workload), and then I believe had an injury that impacted him through the playoffs(he was like 10th on the Astros in PA and went 1 for 21).
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    Couldn’t he DH too? Who is the current DH, Madrigal? The current norm is a 13 man pitching staff, which means a 4 man bench including backup C. If your 1B and DH are basically locked to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, you probably aren't too likely to put another guy like that on the bench. Mancini has played corner OF, but the metrics are not kind to his performance(one silver lining, it's basically limited range instead of a bunch of errors).
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    This is a pretty substantial update from Sharma, and there's some eye-opening stuff to me: https://theathletic.com/4091508/2023/01/14/cubs-convention-roster-holes/ - He says the choice may be between adding a bat and adding another RP, and seems to imply it's because RP asking prices are so high(using Matt Strahm's 2/15 deal as an anchoring point). Matt Moore and Chafin are mentioned as targets. - He says Mervis has been told his ST performance will not dictate whether or not he makes the team. Combining with the above, you can read between the lines that Mervis makes the team on opening day if a RP gets added but probably not if they add the bat. The RH bat targets listed are Mancini, Franmil Reyes, and a mystery unnamed player. - He spends six paragraphs talking about 3B and doesn't say Morel's name once. Instead it's Wisdom as the favorite, McKinstry as his platoon/hedge(though teams are asking about McKinstry in trade?), and Mastrobuoni and Madrigal(!?!?!?) are also options. - Morel's name finally shows up in a list of players who may start in Iowa but play a significant role or end the season with the big league team. Others include Madrigal, Wesneski, Velazquez, and Assad.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    Chelsea’s front office is just three agents in a trench coat, change my mind
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    Hence similar and not the same, no? The win is in building the confidence of being a “true” CF prospect, count the runs when that time comes No, because the point is even in the optimistic evaluation of Alcantara's defense there's still a chasm between that ability and what the broad consensus of PCA's defensive ability is. Tossing them in the same 'true CF' bucket and saying we'll figure out the exact difference later whitewashes that huge difference in likely value under the banner of 'similar'. Especially if we're going to proclaim Alcantara will be a better hitter(not a crazy idea) when PCA has achieved more and at higher levels at the plate.
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    Okay, but 'Alcantara may not have to move to RF and is a 50 defender' is still, uh, not similar to the wide consensus on PCA's defense.
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    Similar is doing some really heavy lifting here, what is that based on?
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    Yeah it's probably the out of options thing (though IMO that'sa bit silly to worry about for a 31 year old making league minimumbut I digress). I wonder if that means they're bringing in two more relievers? Right now you have the following as locks: Alzolay, Thompson, Hughes, Boxberger, Wick Jed also seems to like to leave one spot for the Iowa shuttle, which brings us to 6 of 8 spots accounted for. Are those last two currently outside the org, or is it just one more veteran and then a more mopup-y long reliever like Sampson? That is my guess, Sampson, a FA/external acquisition, and then someone from the Estrada/Rodriguez/Rucker group(with Heuer following behind).
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    This also means that the only players on the 40 man who are out of options and on the fringes of the 26 man are McKinstry and Alzolay.
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    Wonder if this came down to Leiter Jr's lack of options. Either that or they don't see much sustainability in his 2022 and would rather bet on Rucker's velocity.
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    I'm not quite as pessimistic on Morel as that stat implies, but this dynamic is the type of thing that drives me nuts about a lot of statcast/next-gen fan analysis. There are attributes that are objectively good but more of them doesn't necessarily mean better when you have to sacrifice other positive attributes to get there(or don't have the skill to avoid the sacrifice). It's tantamount to saying 'wow look at his slugging percentage' for a guy hitting .200/.240/.450
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    Even if it is the latter, I just don't see this clear distinction between Farmer and Wisdom defensively that make it worth the resources to bring in Farmer. And more importantly, there's no indication the FO shares the view that Farmer or someone like him is missing from the position player pool. Case in point, that choice above could even be extended to say, Velazquez instead of Wisdom and be more useful to the shape of the roster than a 2nd or 3rd RHH 3B.
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    Feels like we're starting to out-think ourselves a bit. The team has had the whole offseason to hedge against Morel not being able to hit LHP last year(which will continue past his first 100 MLB PA despite normal to heavy MiLB platoon splits because reasons?) or Wisdom having an outlier negative RAA at 3B despite marginally different UZR, and they've been connected to basically zero players at the position. Even the bat first guys have been Abreu, Mancini, Hosmer, Smith, not a 3B in the bunch. Farmer is a clear upgrade to the existing 3B on one axis, and that's making contact. Aside from that it's questionable at best he's a better defender(-3 at SS last year, 65 MLB games at 3B, older than Wisdom) or at hitting LHP(career marks similar to Wisdom, and again Morel should hit them hard).
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Not sure what this means, Messi gonna sign with Newcastle? No, with Ronaldo But the quoted tweet is about Messi and his current (Qatari owned) club?
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    MLS has a Saudi problem Not sure what this means, Messi gonna sign with Newcastle?
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
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