Transmogrified Tiger

With Mastrobuoni back I was reminded to check in on McKinstry in Detroit and boy did he fall off after killing it in May. 78 wRC+ for the season and 51 since June 1.

I don't think you understand what you're saying. One guy has wrecked AAA pitching (and put up a league average line in 20 MLB games) and the message is apparently 'he's a journeyman on a hot streak, it's not gonna continue' (that's fine, not trying to say Young is a guy). Two other guys hit significantly worse at AAA both in terms of output and peripherals and the message is apparently 'they're really talented, give em a shot in MLB and see if they get hot'. There's no way to circle that square consistently.

The entire logic for campaigning for PCA and Canario has essentially been 'sure they aren't ready to be good or even average MLB hitters but maybe they'll go on a heater', but now when we think about Young it's 'he's been on a heater at AAA, it won't continue here'? Okay.

Especially given that the bottom third of the order was due up, the bar is very low for me to send him there. With two outs good process only needs to be better odds than the OBP of the hitter due up, and I don't think it's unfair to think that 1 in 3 throws from Jones in that situation let Happ get in safely.

There are 12 non-catcher hitters on the roster and Canario and PCA are probably the 11th and 12th best options against RHP, maybe one of them is 10th ahead of Wisdom. Against LHP Canario might sneak up to 9th if the pitcher doesn't throw hard. They aren't playing because they shouldn't be playing.

A couple things on that first bit. One is that this is with the benefit of hindsight, because the howling every time that Merryweather/Leiter/Alzolay were healthy/rested scratches in close games and every time Madrigal starts makes me skeptical that we'd have nodded along with that outcome. Another is that some of this is perception driven by the team as a whole losing, Swanson has a 108 wRC+ in September for example. But most importantly I don't see much sign that these are 1) obvious decisions to make and 2) lead to a better outcome. The idea that Ross should've rested pitchers more when they were a whisker away from selling and have only spent the last couple weeks in any type of playoff position is dubious, and even if they do so it's likely a wash in terms of playing a little better now for a little worse before. On the Brewers, I don't watch them so I'm not going to pretend to be intimately familiar with Counsell's work(and really Brock is the only one here who probably can). My point is that a huge chunk of what we ascribe to the quality of managers we don't regularly watch is actually the depth and quality of their pitching staff. Especially at the back end of the pen, because issues there compound and create a ton of difficult coin flip managerial decisions. Said most simply, the idea that Counsell would have managed the Cubs pitching staff to greater success and consistency if he were in Chicago this year strikes me as fanciful thinking.

This is revealing, because a lot of what makes Counsell perceived to be a good manager are things that have nothing to do with him, namely having multiple excellent starters who can go deep into games and one of the best closers in baseball. It's not a coincidence that when Ross has those things the yelling about him goes down to a minimum because they're winning games. From the time Alzolay started closing more or less full time until his week off prior to the dead cat bounce and his DL stint, the Cubs were 45-26, a near half season at 102 win pace. And that includes periods with injuries to Bellinger, Swanson, and Stroman so it was far from an ideal roster window aside from simply having closer settled. Conversely, the Brewers muddled around .500 without Woodruff and have only played like an excellent team with him, Burnes, and Peralta pitching excellently and consistently 6+ innings, with Williams serving as the back end foundation. About 5 weeks ago, the Cubs were 1 game out of a wild card spot, and since then, they've sustained injuries to Stroman, Alzolay, Fulmer, Candelario, and Madrigal (and those are the ones we know about requiring IL stints). Leiter lost his splitter, Steele has hit a wall and had multiple disaster starts, and there haven't been more than 2 or so hitters swinging well at any given time. And they had to play 40 games in 22 days or whatever it was. Their playoff position has improved by a game. But I'm supposed to believe the real reason the Cubs would have missed the playoffs is that Ross didn't sequence the batting order quite right, or didn't play PCA(0/9 w/ 5 Ks despite protected matchups) enough, or didn't do...something different with the bullpen despite being starved for worthy options? Lunacy. The Cubs are an average team and their record reflects their averageness. Yes it's frustrating that they've swung between white hot and ice cold, but as tempting as it can be to think that's a dial the manager can turn, it's really not when you consider the causes(pitching injuries & fatigue, teamwide RISP slumps). Sometimes the other team plays well, and sometimes the circumstances are not in your control to improve enough to change game outcomes.

*Pat Hughes bursts through a wall* "You know I always thought that Grant Balfour was a horrible name for a pitcher to have"

where's the pic of the 'initial notice was physical appearance black' robot when you need it

I don't quite get it either. If I'm outside looking in for a justification, I guess you can come up with Young outproducing Mervis at AAA, and showed himself to be marginally less overwhelmed in his MLB time to date.

This probably isn't a great sign for the broader org's opinion of Mervis

I'm not going to make the case for Shaw as an easy 3B, but on this point I'd nitpick that DRS, UZR, and OAA all think Madrigal has been a plus 3B. So in that example the dream stays alive that arm might be overstated in 3B defensive value. If I have a concern with Shaw as a MLB 3B it's more of 1) if can he hit enough to be a 3+ win player there 2) if he can field cleanly in general (8 errors at SS/2B in 32 pro games).

I mean you don't have to agree with it, but it seems silly to me to pretend to not understand why Shaw, the college SS who has played mostly SS in pro ball, is considered a potential 3B. And also why Murray, who prior to this year had played over 70% of his pro innings at 1B, might have questions about his ability to stick at 3B.

We should be careful not to falsely equate a big HR number with that person being top of the scale in offensive production. Schwarber has a 120 wRC+, and is doing it with a roughly 2/1 LF/DH split and not adding any value on the bases(0/2 SB). That's a shade better than what Happ is putting up exclusively as a LF(116 wRC+), while Happ is 14/17 in SB. So even before we consider anything about defensive quality, you have Happ providing more offensive value and doing so higher up the defensive spectrum by not being DHed a third of the time. And then you get to the defensive value, where Schwarber gets hammered. -10 by UZR, -17 by OAA, -21 by DRS. It's unanimous that he's a horrific defender this year, at a position very low on the defensive spectrum. This wasn't always the case with Schwarber btw, as a Cub metrics disagreed on the depth of his badness and sometimes even had positive values(largely driven by his arm). If there is a case for reform I think it might be useful if defensive extremes in WAR had a ceiling, simply because I think the potential for value has a harder cap and more limited information than a season of plate appearances. That would help Schwarber, but it would still make him an averageish player. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, WAR absolutely is trying to and should adjust for positional value. To not do so would make it pretty pointless as an individual metric, doubly so in a world where folks are often playing multiple positions over the course of the year(even Schwarber has 40+ games at 2 spots!). Quibble with the specific positional adjustments, sure, but the idea that we maybe don't have them perfect so we should just have LF WAR and 2B WAR and 3B WAR instead is less helpful. If you want to look at players at the same position you can just pair your fielding eval of choice with your offensive eval of choice, you don't need WAR to get a sense of that comparison.

Yep, the Cubs could get swept and play .500 for the final 12 games and finish with a win total that would get them in the playoffs at current rates. I wouldn't suggest doing it that way and it's possible multiple teams finish strong and surpass them in that outcome, but there are no do-or-die/must-win games for now.

Rivera got a slightly aggressive promotion to South Bend to start full-season ball, was terrible for his first dozen games, and has blistered the ball since then. This isn't even the most stark dividing line you can draw, but it's a clean one: First 3 weeks/series: 54 PA, .188/.259/.250, 47 wRC+ Next/Final 3 weeks/series: 49 PA, .318/.388/.568, 165 wRC+ I'm not gonna expect him to pick up with a 165 wRC+ next year, but it seems safe to call those first couple weeks an adjustment period(skipping low-A, long season, etc) that he successfully worked past.

Giants/Rockies is postponed, doubleheader Saturday. So assuming the Mets finish off the last 9 outs with a 7 run lead, all 3 wild card results went the Cubs' way today.

I have heard 200 million floated around online, which I didn't expect despite being high on him. I could see a long term deal hitting that level given his age, but I would be surprised if he exceeded 30M AAV given the uncertainties of translating to MLB. Plus he'll be posted and not an FA, so a 200 million contract costs an extra 45M+ (outside the LT, but still real money) that will create some additional downward pressure. With the FA options for big upside dropping(Urias, Ohtani in 2024) though, who knows.

Just eyeballing BBTV, Bryan Woo or Edward Cabrera are names that match up and you could envision being available.

gotta say I didn't expect Boxberger to come back and go 6 up/6 down in Coors

Should've said it before the Morel at bat, but I think you've got to send Seiya on that ball. He has a strong arm but that's deep enough that your odds are higher than Morel's OBP.

I would skip Assad before Taillon.

He got taken off the list earlier this week, he was set to start yesterday(was in the pregame lineup graphic and everything) but they scratched him since the game was delayed by rain. Pending further weather we have to assume he'll go tonight.

well that was a profoundly stupid series of events