Transmogrified Tiger

This makes the Eyre signing look terrible in comparison. Some of us speculated Walker was necessary to get Romero. Color me disappointed.

Hill, Pinto, Nolasco, Ryu, Guzman Wait....

Ack, we shall never speak of that again.

How much $ would the Cubs have left after the deal? And now is where I regret my laziness in updating my contract info. Quick and (definitely) dirty calculation says that they would have about 12 million to fill RF, a SP if Z/Prior/Wood/Maddux/Rusch isn't good enough for you, and the remainder of the bullpen and bench(Everyone except those that have guaranteed contracts)

I know I'll catch some crap for saying this, but the upgrade at SS would almost be enough to keep Patterson and put him in RF. No it wouldn't. That's like saying acquiring Cliff Floyd is enough to put Neifi at SS. The production is very similar, just swap the positions that aren't giving terrible production.

The point is that we shouldn't be saying "get this guy, no matter the cost" when he's going to give you an .850 OPS, average at best defense, and is about to leave his prime for 4/50. I won't literally give up the entire farm. And I'd try my best to hold onto my best guys. But I give up a heck of a lot to get Tejada. I agree, I'd like to get Tejada too. However, a multitude of people in this thread are saying what I said above, or more specific deals like Pie, Hill, Williams, and Cedeno, maybe more. That sort of thing would cripple us, as I outlined earlier in the thread. I wouldn't start at that package, but if forced I'd probably do it, maybe minus one guy and do not think it would cripple us. Pierre is here for the long haul and Pie is no corner OF. Cedeno would have no purpose. None of these guys is likely to be as good at his job as Tejada is. The window is closing and all of them have backup in the system. Cedeno could move to 2nd, but EPatt is right behind and just as capable. This makes the Cubs better in the short-term (at least 2 years) and when that 3rd year comes up there would be multiple guys available who could be just as capable of filling in where those prospects would be expected to. My deal with that trade is that it now forces us to use Rusch as a starter, and now Wellemeyer and Guzman are our only conceivable options to back up the rotation. Plus, we have 12 million fewer to use on the sparse FA market, and aside from Guzman and Ryu, we have nothing to trade that's close to Major League ready. I don't think that makes us so much better that it's worth hampering us so much. washburn and millwood are both still out there. To not make this deal to avoid using rusch is just piling stupidity upon stupidity (the initial stupidity being signing rusch in the first place). Rusch is going to pitch for the cubs this year so you might as well improve the offense. It's not about keeping the prospects, or justifying Rusch's presence, it's about the state you're in after the trade. Tejada fills the hole at SS very very well, but he gives us significantly fewer resources to fill RF(for which we don't have a cheap, capable replacement), and opens up a hole in the rotation(or 'another' if you feel we need a starter now). Plus it eliminates just about all trading chips you have near the Major League level when combined with the Pierre giveaway. Plus he's 30 next year, and he has a large contract, and he's not a great defender, etc, etc.

The point is that we shouldn't be saying "get this guy, no matter the cost" when he's going to give you an .850 OPS, average at best defense, and is about to leave his prime for 4/50. I won't literally give up the entire farm. And I'd try my best to hold onto my best guys. But I give up a heck of a lot to get Tejada. I agree, I'd like to get Tejada too. However, a multitude of people in this thread are saying what I said above, or more specific deals like Pie, Hill, Williams, and Cedeno, maybe more. That sort of thing would cripple us, as I outlined earlier in the thread. I wouldn't start at that package, but if forced I'd probably do it, maybe minus one guy and do not think it would cripple us. Pierre is here for the long haul and Pie is no corner OF. Cedeno would have no purpose. None of these guys is likely to be as good at his job as Tejada is. The window is closing and all of them have backup in the system. Cedeno could move to 2nd, but EPatt is right behind and just as capable. This makes the Cubs better in the short-term (at least 2 years) and when that 3rd year comes up there would be multiple guys available who could be just as capable of filling in where those prospects would be expected to. My deal with that trade is that it now forces us to use Rusch as a starter, and now Wellemeyer and Guzman are our only conceivable options to back up the rotation. Plus, we have 12 million fewer to use on the sparse FA market, and aside from Guzman and Ryu, we have nothing to trade that's close to Major League ready. I don't think that makes us so much better that it's worth hampering us so much.

Brown has been absolutely abysmal shooting this year. If he were producing at last year's levels they'd be fine.

The point is that we shouldn't be saying "get this guy, no matter the cost" when he's going to give you an .850 OPS, average at best defense, and is about to leave his prime for 4/50. I won't literally give up the entire farm. And I'd try my best to hold onto my best guys. But I give up a heck of a lot to get Tejada. I agree, I'd like to get Tejada too. However, a multitude of people in this thread are saying what I said above, or more specific deals like Pie, Hill, Williams, and Cedeno, maybe more. That sort of thing would cripple us, as I outlined earlier in the thread.

The point is that we shouldn't be saying "get this guy, no matter the cost" when he's going to give you an .850 OPS, average at best defense, and is about to leave his prime for 4/50.

The concept of "not blocking Murton" is one I want to avoid. If you put Murton out there and he flops, you're looking at 400+ John Mabry plate appearances. Can we please be a deep team? Maybe just try it once? Join. Except Huff isn't exactly atop my wish list. If BWilk is in the fold, I'm still going after Bradley, Floyd, Mench, maybe RonDL before Huff. Of course, if taking Huff makes it easier to get Lugo....

This is what I've been talking about the entire thread. Tejada isn't THAT good. What is THAT? He would immediately become one of, if not the, best player on the team. Remember, he routinely gives you production at SS that DLee normally gave at 1B. Tejada changes the makeup of this team. He's extremely good, and worth much young talent in trade. Routinely gives Lee's production? Tejada's best year(.360/.534/.894 OBP/SLG/OPS) is only slightly better than Lee's career averages(.363/.501/.864). Tejada is going to give you around .300/.350/.500. That's great for a shortstop, but he's got 4/50 left on his deal, he'll be 30 next season, and we still have several holes on the team. He doesn't produce at a high enough level to send a ridiculous number of prospects in return.

This is what I've been talking about the entire thread. Tejada isn't THAT good. 12th highest VORP in baseball last season? The guy is really good. That said a guy like Aberu would be a better fit for the Cubs considering their hole in RF. Position scarcity doesn't matter in this sense. For the production you are getting in return at his age and contract, it's not worth giving Baltimore a blank check of prospects like many are suggesting.

You're funny. :shock: A quote from JeffH?

This is what I've been talking about the entire thread. Tejada isn't THAT good.

No, he apparently wants a trade. Then we argued about Tejada.

I mulitplied stolen bases time .9 to account for attempted steals of third. I don't suppose Diffusion worked in the number of outs prevented and the scoring opportunities made available by the things I listed above though did he? or are those things not valuable in scoring runs? I have no math or statistical accumen to determine these things, but consider.... it's not hard to imagine Pierre's speed would prevent 15-20 outs a year by turning double plays into fielder's choices when Wilkerson would have been a part of a double play. that's worth, what, about 20-25 points in obp? your points lead me right back to a theme from above, you are completely discounting the various roles that speed plays in scoring runs. I really think you're overstating that role. As Diffusion pointed out in another thread, 2/3 of plate appearances in the leadoff role were with no one on base. You claim that 15-20 times more per year Pierre beats out a DP than Wilkerson. Wilkerson has 24 CAREER GIDP. Pierre grounds in to DP's as much if not more often. Plus, since only 33% of PA's come with a man on, and even less with only a runner on first, you're saying that almost 10% of those PA's Pierre saves an out by not GIDP instead of Wilkerson. Overstated. I have no idea what you're talking about in this passage. Wilkerson gets on base more, and he hits for more extra bases. A single and a SB is not as valuable as a double or especially a HR.

I am not enomored by the move, but like I said in the thread about his acquisition, people have been pretty absurd in trying to diminish his skills. I remember a year ago when arguments were being made about Walker leading off for the Cubs, some people who are currently bashing the deal were making this point: obp in a leadoff man is most important, but how often the batter reaches second base is critically important as well when it comes to scoring runs. in that respect, you compare how often Pierre is able to reach second base on his own to Wilkerson or Walker, it adds value that Walker and Wilkerson can't necessarily bring. for a rough calculation, I'll use 2b + 3b + HR + SB(x.9). 2005 was a down year for Pierre and Wilkerson and an injury year for Walker: Pierre 85 Wilkerson 67 Walker 41 (in 400 ABs, let's say 61 over 600 ABs) 2004 was by far Wilkerson's best year, arguably for Pierre too, and a illogically benched year for Walker Pierre 77 Wilkerson 85 (do have to give a huge edge for all the dingers, but will he ever repeat that? shouldn't the homers he didn't hit in DC have turned into doubles last year? they didn't.) Walker 38 (about 61 over 600) for some reason I don't see the people that advocate Wilkerson, and bashing Pierre, pointing to the value reaching second on your own has to scoring runs even though many of them spoke of it last year when advocating for Walker for leadoff. I don't like Pierre's stolen base percentage. I think it should be in the 80s to be an effective gamble. last year Pierre attempted 74 stolen bases. to have an 80 percent success rate he would have needed 60 sb. he had 57. three outs (sure, there are probably some pickoffs to work in there.) big deal. I'd much rather have him on second or beyond on his own at the rate he does get there. also, to diminish his skills, everybody is acting like the sole aspect of speed is the stolen base. while wilkerson, and to a lesser extent walker, are both good baserunners, Pierre brings the following more regularly than the Ws: score from second on a single go from first to third on a single score from first on a double score from third on a groundball or flyout turn dps into fc to first go from second to third on a groundball up the middle Walker is probably my favorite Cub, and I would love to add Wilkerson, but the lengths people go through to say that they would be every bit the leadoff hitter that Pierre is goes a little far. let's look at the entire picture, not just the additional slg and leave it at that. obp is the most important factor for a leadoff hitter, but Pierre's speed in the leadoff spot will lead to alot of scoring opportunities and avoid alot of outs, that would have been runners stranded and outs if it were Walker and Wilkerson out there. So a single and a SB = .9, and a HR = 1? That's skewed in Pierre's favor, the extra bases Wilkerson gets makes him more valuable. Plus Wilkerson gets on base as much as Pierre, if not more often. EDIT: And like Diffusion did so well before, if you're going to add SB to the extra bases, then you have to subtract CS from OBP, at which point Pierre's OBP is very pedestrian.

Done.

He gone. You said so far, and it's kinda unfair to leave him out when they're obviously going to get something for him.

With the Red Sox in the market for a SS, I'm not sure a 3-way is even needed. Send Manny to the Orioles and Tejada to the Red Sox. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO TRADE CLAUSE! Both those guys are asking to be traded, who has the NTC, Manny?

Uhh, Manny?

Believing something posted on an ESPN message board will get you nowhere in a hurry. Unless many actually heard XM report this, I'm guessing there is not a lot of truth there. Well, it was posted by an Orioles fan at the O's board at least. I also would like to hear corroboration though.

Team name: Your Indentured Servants

The 20% rule doesn't apply. Okay. Either way though, he has a decent guaranteed one year deal waiting in LA if he wants it, which is also close to home for him.