Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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No, I don't think anyone here really cares about Japanese players. -
Burrell
Transmogrified Tiger replied to fromthestretch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
More fun facts. The OPS+ Burrell put up in '03, 89(100 is average), would be a career high for Neifi. -
Burrell
Transmogrified Tiger replied to fromthestretch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
It wasn't that bad. He had a .713 OPS. While that's horrid for a corner OF, it pales in comparison to Patterson's .592 OPS last year. A 33 point difference in OPS+ is monumental. -
What is so good about Premium, anyway?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Tim's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
You can't change it on your own anymore, but if you want a change, PM Tim about it(maybe 1908 too, not sure). -
I call it in general "pop", but if I want a cola drink I'll ask for a "coke".
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He had a chance, but I don't remember if he actually did file.
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It's not that simple. Sisco was eligible for the Major League phase, and they can only be protected by being placed on the 40 man roster, which includes several prospects needing protecting as well as the entire major league roster.
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Murton's success a dangerous assumption
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Murton had a .342 BABIP in the big leagues last year(his AA BABIP was an obscene .376 by my calculations, completely unsustainable). Only 7 players in each league were able to do that last year and qualify for a batting title, and they are some of the best hitters in the game, or at least ones with styles conducive to a high BABIP(Wily Taveras doing his Juan Pierre impersonation). It's completely unreasonable to expect Murton to duplicate that. Murton is here to stay, and I'm guessing his OPS will be more in the 850-900 range consistently. I really don't see him struggling enough to give Dusty a reason to keep him out of the lineup. Murton is the type of hitter that this team has been lacking for too long (a good one). Remember, he was drafted by the BoSox, not the Cubs. He's bound to be good. I hope so, but as I outlined above, there's a very very high likelihood he isn't going to reach an .850 OPS. -
Murton's success a dangerous assumption
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Murton had a .342 BABIP in the big leagues last year(his AA BABIP was an obscene .376 by my calculations, completely unsustainable). Only 7 players in each league were able to do that last year and qualify for a batting title, and they are some of the best hitters in the game, or at least ones with styles conducive to a high BABIP(Wily Taveras doing his Juan Pierre impersonation). It's completely unreasonable to expect Murton to duplicate that. -
Murton's success a dangerous assumption
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
First of all, you can throw out his Iowa numbers. 34 ABs isn't going to tell you anything. In '04, Murton hit .292/.370/.428 in the FSL. That's a solid line in a pitcher's league, although he was a year old for it. In West Tennessee and Chicago in '05, his numbers are very much BABIP driven. In his larger sample at AA, he didn't improve his power or his patience(patience went down actually), but performed better because he hit .342. Murton's not going to hit anywhere near .342 at the major league level. He'll be lucky to hit .300, at which his numbers would be .300/.360/.440. That's an .800 OPS, which is okay for a corner OF, as the high end of what to expect from Murton. His BABIP issues continued in Chicago. He did hit for more power, which was a promising sign. However, he did so in about a third of the PA's as he had at AA. More worrisome was that a much larger than expected number of his hits came on infield singles and the like. We can't expect those to continue, unless he's mastered the art of hitting an infield single, which I doubt. So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF. -
Meh, Mora will be 34 next year, and Aram > Tejada, so I don't think that's terrible for them. Aram > Tejada Based on? Please factor defense, attitude and durability into your criteria. Better offensive production that isn't made up by defense, similar contract, and most importantly Ramirez is several years younger. Tejada career - .338/.477/.815 ARam career - .329/.481/.810 Offensive production similar. That said I not sure I'd rank a 27 year old 3B who averages 142 games played a year over a 30 year old SS who average 162 games played a year with a MVP trophy on his mantle and who by all accounts I've read is considered a "gamer and team leader." Not a slam at ARam (I hope his conditioning "program" pays off) just kudos to Mr. Tejada. Those career numbers are very misleading since Tejada has 2 more prime seasons under his belt. Ramirez is the better offensive player. And if we are considering attitude and whatnot, wouldn't Tejada's attempts to be traded cast a negative against his character?
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Question for this board - Cards payroll
Transmogrified Tiger replied to indifferent's topic in General Baseball Talk
Will they benefit hundreds of millions of dollars more than if Busch had just been kept around? -
Carlos Lee in 2007??
Transmogrified Tiger replied to E.J.'s topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
If we're looking towards '07, Lee and Floyd aren't so great that I'm chomping at the bit right now to get either. When the time comes they may be the best course of action, but there's a lot to be done between now and then. -
Meh, Mora will be 34 next year, and Aram > Tejada, so I don't think that's terrible for them. Aram > Tejada Based on? Please factor defense, attitude and durability into your criteria. Better offensive production that isn't made up by defense, similar contract, and most importantly Ramirez is several years younger.
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Meh, Mora will be 34 next year, and Aram > Tejada, so I don't think that's terrible for them.
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I am so happy to write this post because at long last I agree, 100%, with every word you wrote. If all of those guys repeat those performances it would be a miracle, and I think you only get one of those in a generation. Now they have acquired Vazquez and everybody expects him to be lights out. I am not so sure. The White Sox and Williams are the flavor of the month for the media, so every move is gold. Why do I get the feeling that if the Cubs had just acquired a guy with Vazquez's numbers who makes what he makes and giving up a good prospect and two major leaguers in the process the media would not be as supportive. :shock: Welcome to the dark side....
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Amazing what happens when your team wins the world series. And adds a top prospect and a reliever to the trade.
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We'd be losing close to 16.5 mil in the deal, so if we can afford to take on Tejada's 12 million alone, I think taking on 15.5 million in that deal wouldn't be extremely difficult.
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If what you are saying turns out to be true, then Hendry is probably waiting until Dec. 20 to see who gets non-tendered: maybe the Jay Gibbons/Craig Wilson platoon will be cheap. Why would Baltimore non-tender Gibbons? I'd really like to pick up Wilson on the cheap, since he apparently isn't going to fit in with "Tracyball". I'm still a proponent of bringing in Rondell White for OF depth as well.
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Yeah, but is it possible part of the reason their numbers were better because there defense was improved? That could be part of the reason, I don't have the time to find and compare Fielding Independent ERA's right now, but if someone wants to, go for it.
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Look at their pitching staff last year. Politte, Hermanson, and Cotts were average to mediocre relievers and they all had unbelievable years. Garcia and Buehrle are very good starters who had great years even by their standards. Garland had the year of his life, and Contreras outproduced his career norms. That's 119 games worth of innings of pitching that ranged from slightly better to monumentally better than expected. Certainly Williams deserves credit for getting pitchers like Garcia and Buehrle, and I suppose you could give him credit for taking gambles on Hermanson and Contreras(Jenks was a very good, low risk pickup). But when every single one outproduces what they've proven capable of, some by an obscene amount, I'm more willing to contribute that to good fortune than Williams masterminding some scheme where he knows all his in-house options are about to have career years and picking up several others that do as well. And make no mistake, this pitching above predicted levels is why they made the playoffs(once you're in the playoffs it's a free for all) and why they won as many games as they did.
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I don't really think Chess is a sport, but there is a distinction. In poker, there is a (pretty good) chance that there is no way you can win a hand, since that's all you can do is take the hand given to you, especially if no betting is involved. In chess, you have control over your destiny.
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That's a well written post, but there's a couple things worth pointing out. Obviously, Cedeno didn't play a full season at AAA, and there are some sample size issues. But pointing out his AAA numbers and comparing them to his career numbers is a bit deceiving, as it ignores the progression that he's had the last few years. Also, while he probably justly doesn't lend credence to the "turning point" logic, it is worth mentioning that Cedeno himself has said that he has made adjustments in regards to hitting to all fields, and that's what he's attributed to his success since AA. His K/BB ratio has improved some since then, and his point about his SLG being low is also deceiving, since his batting average is so low. Cedeno will hit for an acceptable amount of power if his batting average is at a good level(.270-.290). Added on to the fact that he also pointed out that Cedeno is at least a year young for all the levels he played at, I think calling him a "questional prospect" along with Pie(which is even more laughable) is a bit of a stretch.
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Correlation does NOT equal causation. Does a world series appearance or win mean that Dusty, or Guillen, or Brenly are good managers? Of course not.
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By no means am I a big Corey fan like a lot of people on this board are, but... why would KPat in RF be a "horrible" idea? Assuming we land Tejada (I know, big assumption) I'd be completely fine with Corey batting 8th for the Cubs next year. At his best Corey would be an average right fielder offensively. His defensive strength is his range, not his arm, which means that he would be wasted/ineffective defensively in RF. Most of all though, Corey in RF is an absolute failure to get production from a corner OF spot. If you go into next season with Cedeno, Murton, AND Patterson in your lineup, you're just asking for trouble, and it doesn't really matter all that much if you get Tejada, you've still got about half your lineup that has a very real chance of falling completely on its face. I think the question at hand is are the other options that much better than Corey? Will they get us into the playoffs? I think the answer is no, it would not be a big enough upgrade. So why not give Corey the chance to prove himself? It's entirely too early to give up on the trade market. The FA RF's might be slim, but there's still a good deal of offseason left to make a move for an outfielder.
