raw
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Everything posted by raw
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Week 1 - Packers @ Bears - Soldier Field - September 10th 3:25PM
raw replied to David's topic in Other Sports
He was a draft pick by this regime. And it seems they gave preference to the guys they drafted and/or paid more highly this offseason. Robinson & Green over Lewis & Gipson Dylan Cole (who barely practiced/played) over Micah Baskerville EQ & Velus over Daurice Fountain I mean most of these are depth positions, so it's not a big deal. but it does seem like they may have kept lesser players (in my eyes) for "fit" reasons. -
Week 1 - Packers @ Bears - Soldier Field - September 10th 3:25PM
raw replied to David's topic in Other Sports
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He'll struggle. He's a rookie. But he's also one of the elite prospects of the last several years, so it's likely he won't be a disaster. I think the biggest route to a top 3 pick is if that very below average OL gets him hurt early and often/long-term. Even then, Dalton can probably win 5-6 to keep them out of the top 3.
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I don't think Carolina is top 3 bad on paper. Arizona and Tampa seem to be legit tanking. The Rams don't look like they are actively trying to win. Then you have the Texans, Titans, Patriots and Raiders that seem to be clearly inferior on paper to other teams in a loaded divisions and conference. Carolina has solid talent on D. Young isn't going to be horrible. Only question I have is, does he make it through the season healthy. I'm thinking about top 6 for Carolina if the OL looks as bad as it has in preseason. But I'm expecting Bears and Carolina to be in the 10-16 range, with the Bears at the higher end of that range.
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Week 1 - Packers @ Bears - Soldier Field - September 10th 3:25PM
raw replied to David's topic in Other Sports
Bears lose and it's bad either way. LOL. Either Fields plays well and Love plays similar or better and the Bears have a breakdown somewhere else (non Fields turnovers, special teams) or Fields plays not as well. Not too many scenarios where Fields plays well, Love plays as bad as my sanity needs him to play, and the Bears actually lose the game. -
I think the biggest roster decisions are basically, if the Bears are fine with their guys or if they see better guys on waivers. #1 waiver priority and last year they claimed 6. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go after a S, CB, and OL. With Leatherwood gone, do they keep Patrick and Kramer, basically giving them 3 Cs? I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick is cut. They penciled him in to start at C, with Jenkins out, but he has practiced like 20 times in the 2 years on the roster, and has only played 10 snaps at C. Pass rusher seems pretty done with Gipson asking for a trade. RB is if they take 3 or 4.
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Absolute dime down the seam. One of the TEs that's going to be cut dove for it for some reason and dropped it when he hit the ground.
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So, I know a trade and subsequent long-term deal for a RB doesn't seem like a Poles thing. But Poles wouldn't give Roquan the deal he wanted, and Eberflus even stated that off ball LB isn't a premium position....just to have Poles go out in the offseason and add the top off-ball LB on the market, pay another top LB, draft a LB, and bring in now 3 FA LBs in camp to try to find a guy for the bottom of the roster. He also traded a knowingly high 2nd for a WR in the middle of what he knew would be a lost season. I honestly don't know if we know what kind of GM Poles is at this point. Jonathan Taylor may not be a premium position, but he is a premium player. This isn't Dalvin Cook or Austin Ekeler, pushing or at 30. JT is only 24 and getting a premier player at any position may be worth the risk to Poles as far as we know. I think that's the logic that went into signing Edmunds.
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I've read it a couple other places as well, but IDK if it's people running with his tweet. But I've read some "I was told Bears made an inquiry as well" type stuff. That being said, this is the same dude that has been floating the Bears around in a JT trade for a week because the Bears have a ton of money and unlike the Browns (who also have money) don't have Nick Chubb.
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Getting an MRI tomorrow. Those always go well.
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Updated projection after Preseason 2 QB (3)- Fields, Walker, Bagent RB (3)- Herbert, Foreman, Johnson FB (1)- Blasingame WR (7)- Moore, Mooney, Claypool, St. Brown, Scott, V Jones, Pettis TE (3)- Kmet, Tonyan, M Lewis OL (9)- Jones, Jenkins, Whitehair, Davis, Wright, Borom, Carter, Leatherwood, Patrick DE(5)- Walker, Ngakoue, Gipson, Robinson, T Lewis DT(4)- Billings, Ju Jones, Dexter, Pickens LB (6)- Edwards, Edmunds, Sanborn, Sewell, D Cole, Walker CB (5)- J Johnson, Gordon, Stevenson, T Smith, Blackwell S (4)- Jackson, Brisker, E Hicks, AJ Thomas Specialists (3)- Santos (K), Gill (P), Scales (LS) Decisions between if they keep a 6th DE (Green), 6th LB (Walker/Baskerville), 6th CB (Jaylon Jones), 7th WR (Pettis) or 4th RB (Homer/Ebner). 6th DE doesn't have special teams value, so I didn't keep Green again, but they could keep him if they value his versatility on D more than special teams coverage. Pettis being able to return punts (albeit not well) is going to be an interesting decision. I'd love it if they got bold and kept guys like Kramer over Leatherwood, Fountain over ESB, and found a way to keep Kellen Diesch, who's PFFs 5th highest graded OT this preseason (Borom is 1).
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Ok, so the Tyson Bagent stuff is a little bit out of control. I understand if Fields missing time, the Bears are screwed either way. And getting a young guy reps could be beneficial for long-term reasons for him and the team's potential to get something from Bagent. But I don't necessarily believe he should be the #2 QB. Preseason games are just a small portion of the evaluation. Of course, he's done well enough to at least get a look before Peterman this past weekend, but I still cringe at the thought of throwing him in a game early in the season as a D2 UDFA. I also don't think there's a huge risk of someone poaching him if you try to sneak him thru waivers. They probably aren't going to, because they can afford to keep 3 QBs this year, but not many claims are made for camp cuts. Over 1100 players are cut when 32 teams go from 90 players down to 53. Only 33 got signed last year, and 6 of those were from a wretched Bears team last year. Only 2 of the 33 were QBs and both were relatively high draft picks with Kellen Mond (a former 3rd rounder) and Ian Book (a 4th rounder) being the only guys picked up.
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Sounds like 4-6 weeks. Which could put him back Week 3 or middle of October. Week 4 is Oct 1, and just under 6 weeks, but also have a game Oct 5, which they won't bring him back for if can't go Oct 1. So, looking at Oct 15, Week 6. Agree with Goony. Only thing this changes is you don't talk about Jenkins in your long-term plans. Anything short of missing the minimum time and absolutely dominating the rest of the season with no missed snaps when he comes back and you probably have to draft a guard really high next year. Maybe not with one of the 1sts, but for sure on Day 2.
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The only teams that I would consider as tanking, don't have a long-term (healthy) answer at QB, are Arizona and Tampa. Probably can include the Rams, though IDK what they're actually doing. I thought the Titans were tanking, but they signed Hopkins and just drafted QBs in consecutive years. Raiders, Vikings and Washington seem to be legitimately trying, though they may not have their long-term answer at QB.
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Well yeah, I've said that for years. But my point is you can stash him as QB3. If a team claims a player on waivers, they have to put them on the 53. No team is putting a guy on their roster as QB2 or 3, based on 2 preseason quarters since DII. And even if they are going to lose anyway, I'd rather not throw Bagent in there as a starter with that same lack of experience and potentially ruin what you could have in him, considering the QB2 for the Bears is very likely going to start at least 1 game this year.
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Easy on the Bagent love. He looks pretty solid, which is really all I hoped at this point. Dude was at a DII school this time last year. I don't think he's quite ready to start an NFL game as the primary backup for a QB who has been injured in his only 2 years in the league. I was hoping he'd show enough to be kept on as QB3 on the practice squad. And despite his play, I don't think he's at risk of being poached from the Bears PS to another team's 53 man roster, especially now that you don't have to have 3 QBs on the roster in order for them to be able to play in a pinch. That being said, the Bears probably still need a QB2. There's a couple teams out there with a couple solid 3rd QBs that I wouldn't mind grabbing if they make it to waivers. I'd cut PJ Walker in a heartbeat if SF cuts either Darnold or Brandon Allen, TB cuts John Woolford (he got hurt yesterday, not sure how severe).
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Am I actually "excited" about the DE room? Ngakoue is legit. He's a lock for 8 sacks if he's healthy (has 8 or more every year). Walker is solid. I like him more inside on pass downs, and Ngakoue gives you a chance to do that. Rasheem Green is just 2 seasons removed from a 6.5 sack season and is still only 26. But Terrell Lewis and Trevis Gipson look like potentially great depth pieces who can give you a burst of energy late in games. And they still have Dominique Robinson as a project. Obviously, a long way to go and not an elite room at all, but I think the Bears should/will keep all 6 DEs and keep 4 DTs and play a lot of 3/4 DE lines on passing downs. Walker and Green can both play inside, and the Bears actually ran Green inside in the first quarter with 2 DEs other DEs on the outside. They aren't likely to get a ton of pressure from the interior anyway, so no reason to play 2 of them on 3rd and 7+.
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I also think the NFL should move on from preseason games, and just have joint practices. To make up revenue, have joint practices televised at the end of the week (each teams has 2), play them in a stadium, sell tickets and keep the practice structure. QBs in red jerseys don't get hit. Do 1-on-1s, 7 on 7s, full team, 1s vs 2s, 1s vs 1s, etc. Fans will see more of the top players this way, as starters will be guaranteed to get reps, unlike most of the preseason. Just go to 18 regular season games (it's going to happen soon anyway), give teams 2 bye weeks. Only do Thursday nights Week 1 (for SB winner) and during byes, nobody should have to play 2 games in 4 days.
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The point of preseason is to see your team/players against other teams/players. The joint practices gave Fields 2 days worth of reps, which is >>> than 12-15 plays during a preseason game. I'd imagine they'd play starters a bit next week, unless they feel really good about where they are as a team.
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You're asking questions already answered by my post. I don't think Vildor or Green have trade value. Not saying they both wouldn't be added to 53-man rosters right away, but I went with guys with potential team control beyond this year over 2 pending FAs as the 5th CB and DE.
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MY 53-man prediction as of today. QB (2)- Fields, Walker RB (4)- Herbert, Foreman, Homer, R. Johnson FB (1)- Blasingame WR (6)- Moore, Mooney, Claypool, V Jones, St. Brown, Scott TE (3)- Kmet, Tonyan, M Lewis OL (9)- B Jones, Jenkins, Whitehair, N Davis, Wright, Borom, Carter, Patrick, A Collins DE(5)- Walker, Ngakoue, Gipson, Robinson, T Lewis DT(5)- Billings, Ju Jones, Dexter, Pickens, Bell LB (5)- Edwards, Edmunds, Sanborn, Sewell, D Cole CB (6)- J Johnson, Gordon, Stevenson, T Smith, Blackwell, Ja Jones S (4)- Jackson, Brisker, E Hicks, Colbert Specialists (3)- Santos (K), Gill (P), Scales (LS)
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Yeah, I think this has been a pretty good offseason. I'm thinking A- given the trade for the #1 pick. But combined with the F- from last offseason, this just gives Poles a solid C overall. I'd still like OL depth and safety depth.
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Yannick!
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Defense dominated the offense all last year in camp, supposedly. I didn't hear that til this week, but it explains a lot.
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According to Justin Fields, this is really the first day the defense "got" the offense. He said yesterday was OK, pretty even, and that the offense got them the first few days. I don't think this is a big deal. As Fields also explained, they are gameplanning for the defense. The defense has seen most of the plays the offense has to offer. They are getting familiar with certain looks. I'm sure this happens most camps that don't have Mahomes. Doesn't mean the offense is doomed. Doesn't mean the defense is going to be any good. Real concern is both OGs missed most of practice with injuries.
