Eh. Cards are a bad team, but they are getting Kyler Murray back, likely this coming week. He was 3-7 last year in games he started and finished, but they only scored less than 21 three times, they've only scored more than 21 three times without him. Plus, they'll lose the SOS battle to Carolina if they end up tied, and they essentially are with Arizona only have 1 more loss because they've played 1 fewer game.
Rams already have a game or 2 in hand over the rest of the top 6 with 3 wins already. They have a tough schedule (SOS not in their favor), but they also play Arizona and NYG.
Giants and Patriots are teams I worry about. Giants have AT LEAST 3 more games with DeVito at QB. They play NE and LAR, but those look like the only winnable games they have left, and that's only if Tyrod Taylor comes back.
I don't expect the Bears' pick to be in contention for #1, I think they'll win at least 3 more. It's all about the Carolina pick, IMO.