raw

I know we have a small sample size with Poles, but nothing about his 14 months on the job says to me that he will pick Darnell Wright at 9. He's plenty athletic and long-armed, but unless they feel better about him at LT than 2021 tape shows or think he has inside versatility as some draft "experts" do. He doesn't have the versatility nor is the he the absolute freak athletically in space that the Bears have told everyone who listens that they love. Wright is still extremely good. And may very well be the best OT in this class, and I wouldn't be surprised if they targeted him after a trade down. But there's 2 OTs at the top who are more toolsy with more athletic upside. Johnson is longer than Wright and has actually shown versatility to play inside and on the opposite side of the formation. Wright seems way too "safe" for what Poles has done so far. This is not to say I would hate the move. And honestly, it would show me a lot that Poles sees how bad this OL is and wants more of a Day 1 ready guy at RT instead of building for 2024 and taking the best player available. Wright is a pure need. They have a hole at RT. He plays RT and basically only RT. He's as "win now" as a pick for the Bears can get in this draft. But he does still have upside and I absolutely LOVE the thought of him playing at 315-320 in the outside zone scheme. So kind of the best of both worlds, but I don't see Poles taking anyone at 9 that he could possibly get later in the draft by trading down.

The logic for the draft AFTER free agency is because it helps keep veterans employed. If the draft was before free agency, many vets would be out of jobs or would get less money after teams have drafted younger and potentially cheaper players, decreasing FA demand. And that logic makes most sense in the NFL where you have a salary cap, there are guys coming off of injuries every year, and there's legit attrition due to player age.

Yeah, I don't hate the JSN move. I've gone back and forth on him in general, because I don't love him as a top 10 pick (and out of spite because Bears twitter act like he's the only WR in the draft). But I can't complain about adding a short level separator to the offense that he's familiar with. If JSN's presence forces Fields to get rid of the ball quicker and take fewer hits, he's worth more than a good RT, IMO.

Just putting some thoughts out there. So, I'm starting to kind of see the Poles plan coming together. OR at least what I hope to be the plan. Right now, Poles is taking the quantity approach. 2022 draft he somehow managed 11 picks, though 8 of them were outside of the top 150. This year, Poles has 10 picks so far (wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 more), with 8 of them in the TOP 150. Seems like he is working the roster for the bottom up, probably out of necessity. To be fair, he could have done a bit more than he did last offseason, but obviously there wasn't a huge avenue to add much top end talent with limited cap and early draft picks. Of those 11 picks, 2 of the 3 top 150 picks look like they will be solid starters for this team going forward (Gordon, Brisker). Poles was also able to hopefully find a solid starter after 150 in Braxton Jones. While, the Bears have already cut/lost Zachary Thomas, and guys like Ebner and Kramer may not be long for this roster; they also added a punter and potential depth guys like Carter, Velus, and Robinson. So in summary, you're looking at 1 pretty good starter (Brisker), and 2 other guys that will start with a decent chance of being decent starters (Jones, Gordon), a gadget player and return man who was overdrafted but has a potentially valuable role on the team based on recent history of Hester/Patterson, 2 depth guys, and a punter. This year, with the increase in the high picks, you will have a legitimate 8 players that should make this roster. You'd hope the highest pick becomes a really good starter and building block for the roster. And then those three Day 2 picks, you'd hope you'd get a similar hit rate of Brisker, Gordon, Jones Jr. (1 good starter, 1 potentially solid starter). Then the Bears have 4 picks in the 75-150 range, where they had 0 picks last year. So, remains to be seen what Poles can do there. Then I wouldn't expect much from the 7th round picks, unless Poles decides to draft a kicker or longsnapper to come away with another "starter" on a technicality. Of the guys Poles added outside of the draft, you do have 2 potential superstars in DJ Moore and Tremaine Edmunds. You have TJ Edwards, Nate Davis and Demarcus Walker as guys that should be above average to pretty good starters. Then you have short-term guys that will have important roles that you hope will be average or better (like Claypool, Patrick, Green, Billings, Justin Jones, etc) And of the draft picks Poles inherited, you hope you have a potential superstar at the most important position in sports. You have above average starters in Mooney, Kmet and Jackson, with Mooney and Kmet with potential of being long-term pieces if re-signed. Then there's guys like Herbert, Jenkins, and Johnson who may or may not be long-term pieces, but should be solid starters, with the potential of signing long-term if they take another step (Herbert in an increased role, Jenkins with health, Johnson w/ ball production). So, the Bears have some pieces. They are missing the superstar level talent needed to be a true competitor. Obviously, most important is Fields getting to that level, but the 2024 draft is setting up as a potential year to add multiple star players with likely two picks in the top 15. Throw in the 2nd rounder, and you have a chance to add 3 players next year who went higher than Brisker went last year. Trade down this year (or package picks to move up) and you have the potential to add 2 such players this year. It's frustrating to go through a rebuilding, especially when the GM essentially wasted a year of a rookie QB contract, but that wasted year will be a pivotal part of potentially getting this team to championship level.

It is risky, and I'm not sure if I trust him either. But I feel like if the Bears pick him, they'll have done their due diligence as they've met with him a ton. So, their trust would increase my trust.

A lot of smoke today about Jalen Carter not making it past the Bears at 9. With the Steelers stuff also coming out, sounds like it's Carter or trade down for the Bears. But again, this is lying season with the draft now within 2 weeks. I'm kind of torn. I'd love to get another top 35 pick in this draft. But the best way for me to feel comfortable-ish with the DL is to take Carter at 9. With Carter, you'd have your big piece of the defense. The 3-tech that makes the pass rush go. I'd feel a lot better about the DL as guys like Justin Jones and Demarcus Walker would go to much more sustainable, rotational players and not guys that look like they will get like 75% of the snaps right now. And if you add a Day 2 DE, you can have a couple pretty solid rotations at DE and DT, with 1 potential stud on the line. Unfortunately though, with no 2nd pick until 53, you're looking at an either/or situation with being comfortable with the OL or the DL. With a trade down, you could add a guy at each position, but you'd also lose the level of comfortable that DT1 or OT1 would provide. Now, if you told me they could get Darnell Wright and an Adebawore from a trade down, I'd take that. I'd be pretty comfortable at OL, but DL would still be iffy. So essentially, Carter is the only DT that could make me feel good about the DL, while any of the top 4 OTs (and even Skoronski if they think he can play there) would make me feel OK with the OL. So, I'm good with the Carter or trade down move. That being said, while Paris Johnson isn't your typical top 10 LT, it would be tough to pass on him, if he's there. By all accounts, he is an absolute pillar of a human being and good guys with elite athletic traits tend to work out. So there's still some risk involved with passing up OT at 9, even beyond Carter's off field stuff.

Agreed about the too many holes. But IMO, the important ones are 3-tech and RT. If they get building blocks there, everything else is gravy. They can sign a CB (Ya-Sin, Griffin, or god forbid, Eli Apple). They can sign Floyd or Ngakoue at edge. There's nobody on the market they can sign at DT or RT that would make me feel better about those positions. So, they have to draft them, IMO. But Carter makes the DL much better. Right now, Demarcus Walker would need like 80% of the snaps. Justin Jones didn't hold up to a bunch of snaps and no talent around him last year, so it would help him as well. And obviously, RT has only dudes that were benched (Borom, Leatherwood). Positions like RB, WR, TE, OL depth, could all use draft picks, but the groups as is you can get by with for a year. Tired of doing that, but is what it is at that point.

Well, Tuipulotu only weighed in at 266lbs after being listed at like 290 for USC, so he basically shed the "tweener" label and went all in on being an edge rusher. I'd like him a lot more if he was a 3-tech. Maybe he adds the weight (if he ever had it) and can become a 3T, but I certainly wouldn't want to be the one to take him in the top 75 to do that. He's a fine player, and as an edge he has a great motor and is very skilled with his hands, I don't know if he has the quickness and bend to be more than a rotational player. I wish I knew how athletic he was. He still hasn't worked out, not at the combine and USC had it's pro day, so I'm guessing he has an injury of some sort, so that makes things even worse IMO. I think he's an early to mid Day 3 guy at this point (rounds 4 or 5).

Yeah, I think if they are actually OK with Carter's off-field stuff (and I am more worried about the love of football stuff with the pro day failure) then I think he's the target. It just makes too much sense. He's considered the best player in this class by a lot of people and if the Bears can move down from 1 to 9 and still get the best player in the class, seems like the ideal scenario. Also other than off ball LB and WR, DT is the only other area where we've seen the Bears wanting to make a big splash (Ogunjobi failed deal). I'm not sure how they feel about Wilson (not sure how I feel either), but he seems like a Flus pick. Obviously has the size, length, fits a need and has versatility. But that injury. It's tough to take a guy top 10 coming off a broken foot. Hopefully, he is able to work out in the next few weeks and remove any doubt of his health and athleticism. But I keep coming back to Paris Johnson. Not because he's this flawless prospect, but they aren't going to get any better character guy in this draft. He does tireless community work, speaks different languages, was a great student. If the Bears are unsure about Carter, they can't get a more polar opposite personality than Johnson. Ironically, him being a tackle is what gives me hesitation. LOL. Poles hasn't really done anything based on what the Bears really need, other than be aggressive acquiring WRs after putting himself in a hole there beforehand. I do think the 9th pick comes down to: 1. Are we OK with Carter's character? 2. Is Paris Johnson a blue chip player? 3. Trade down I don't know if I really see anyone else picked at 9, unless they can't find a trade (seems unlikely) and both are gone.

Good list. I think right now, I'm at.... 9- Carter, Paris Johnson, Gonzalez Trade Down (12-17)- Van Ness, Nolan Smith, Anton Harrison, Darnell Wright, Witherspoon, Smith-Njigba, Wilson Not big on Skoronski (Guard), Jones (OT4 to me). Picks 2-4, I'd love to make 1 bold move in these picks, especially if they trade down and get an extra pick. I'd love to package picks to move up or take an outside the box position (like RB or WR, if not in 1st), even if they stay where they are, they could still do something fun, IMO. But they do need to take DL and CB probably in these picks. Of the names you list in this group, I don't like Ika (too big), Dexter (not a top 75 guy to me), White (not a fan of tweeners) or Bergeron (think he's a guard). But any 2 or 3 of those other guys and one of the 1st round guys would be a sweet couple days of the draft.

Thorn is good. Never thought of him as an "expert" on the OL, especially compared to a couple other guys who I cant remember at this moment off the top of my head. But I tend to agree with his thoughts on OL prospects. I want to disagree with the assessment that Braxton can't get better pass blocking, but I can't completely discount his opinion.

Hey Now!

Only 1 GB to 2nd though.

There's no way the Cubs finish behind these Brewers in the standings. They suck

IDK if anyone here watches women's ball, but man what a game South Carolina/Iowa should be

Sure, just as soon as we stop saying every free agent was actually offered more by another team, or that teams were surprised their guy was available when their turn in the draft came up, or that were ecstatic with our draft class. It’s a harmless catch all phrase that actually does have some meaning because there are definitely teams that will target needs above best player overall. Baseball teams do a version of this all the time, going heavy on pitching or college hitters or whatever else they might be lacking in their system. Not to mention purposely taking a lesser player for signability reasons rather than actually taking BPA. There is no such thing as a universally accepted best player available at any slot, but there are versions of it in every war room and teams either stick with that or let doubt creap into their minds and take the guy that might actually fit their situation instead. I just hope Poles takes the draft 1 pick at a time and takes players that will give 110% on every play.

Yeah, I'm thinking that's about the price. And it's probably the later 4th from Philly and not the first pick of the round/day 3. I think the theory is that they are in on trading for Deandre Hopkins, who's cap hit is about 17M for the team trading for him. They have like 9-10Mil in cap space. Oliver is a quick and easy way to clear enough space, while also allocating money/resources from defense to offense for them, where most of their stars are, and likely how they'll compete with the AFC's best. If that's the case, and Oliver trade would be a cost cutting move. I think in reality, he probably has a 2nd or 3rd round value. But based on his cap hit and this being the last year of his deal, I think that late 4th or maybe even one of the 5ths get it done. Maybe some conditional pick if the team re-signs him, but IDK if the Bears would re-sign him. He's not really the long, lengthy type of 3-tech that Eberflus seems to like (6'2", 31 1/2" arms) and hasn't taken the next step as a pass rusher. That being said, he is 25 until like week 15-16 this year and really had a lot of pressures this year that didn't end in sacks so a breakout could happen, in theory.

Bringing it back to the actual discussion, yeah, I'm 100% fine with "I don't like any of these receivers enough to pick them over other players likely to be available at No. 9." I don't pretend to be enough of a scout to have opinions on exactly how to slot the players in the back of the top 10 of the draft. I just don't think that the combination of Moore/Mooney/Claypool, two of whom are in contract years, would be enough to make me pass on a WR if that was who they liked most at no. 9. I got you. And that makes perfect sense. But it is certainly a big part of the equation as well. Diminishing returns. Moore obviously is going to be the lead dog. The team has said it wants to re-sign Mooney, granted the injury may have changed the urgency of that and if he doesn't come back maybe even the desire. But it also doesn't change what you have invested in them (Mooney just time so far, Claypool the highest possible 2nd round pick). And if you add a top 10 pick at WR to the mix, you are essentially pushing one of them to the curb (or sidelines) as you aren't going to play 4-wide very much and even if you do, there's simply not enough of Fields' 337 passes to go around to make those investments (top 10 pick, 20M for Moore, 3 years building w/ Fields for Mooney, and 32nd pick for Claypool) worthwhile.

BPA is in the eye of the beholder, so obviously need goes into it, even if subconsciously. But when you need a certain position, you can justify taking a that player by saying, "oh he was the best on our board" even if we know it's clearly nonsense. We saw the Cowboys draft board leak last year and they passed up their last guy with a 1st round grade, who was a safety (can't remember who, maybe Georgia kid?) and picked an offensive lineman who was their top 2nd round grade. Because position value came into play as well as need. My whole point about taking a WR at 9 is that I don't think any WR in this draft class would be the best player available with the 9th pick. And now that you added a WR by literally insisting he be included in the trade and it getting done ASAP instead of waiting anywhere near draft day, you don't have the justification to draft a WR at 9 who, IMO likely isn't even arguably the BPA in any scenario there.

This isn’t unique to WRs though, every position on the field is like this. Heck, Bijan Robinson is being pushed as a top 10 pick as a RB and I’d argue a stronger prospect on paper in Breece Hall fell to the second last year *because* he’s a RB You'd be wrong on that argument too.

While Claypool and Mooney are free agents after the year, WR is a position where there are guys that come out every year and put up great numbers right away. The Bears probably will draft a WR at some point this year, because they do need to hedge their bets against both Claypool and Mooney leaving, and they have enough picks to literally take every offensive and defensive position. But there's no reason to take a non-elite propsect in the top 10 when you don't have to. DJ Moore should afford you the ability to take the BPA at 9, or else why did insist on him being included? And IMO that best player won't be a WR, no matter how the top 8 unfolds. If they trade down to the mid-to-late teens, then that makes more sense. It's not a complete waste of assets, but I'd much rather go Bijan at 9 than JSN, and I love Smith-Njigba as a player and fit on this team.

DJ Moore is a top 150 player in the league. If your only desire is for the Bears to draft a blue chip guy in this draft, the only one available at 9 is possibly Bijan Robinson, a running back.

318 was easily the least amount in the league for any starting QB. DJ Moore averages 123 targets per year by himself. He's a year removed from 163 targets, that's over half of what Fields threw this year. If Moore is a true #1 WR they think he is, he should be getting around 130-140 targets. That leaves less than 200 targets for the other 3 WRs (if you draft one early), Kmet, TE2, all RBs, Velus, and St Brown. Now obviously, the Bears should be throwing the ball more than they did in a historically low passing year last year. But they aren't going to be the Chiefs, Bucs or Chargers and throw the ball 650 times to make it worth having high assets getting WR4 targets. Logically, it makes sense. Having more weapons is good. But there are a limited number of resources involved here (number or targets , not to mention draft pick resources for other needs) and there are diminishing returns the more weapons you add. It's not like DL where you can rotate a bunch of guys and keep them fresh. It's not like OL where there is a high level of attrition (despite Mooney, Claypool, and Pringle missing multiple games last year, WR is not an high injury position). At some point, you literally aren't going to be able to get all these guys on the field. Even if you do, you aren't going to be able to get all these guys the ball, which is the entire point of having multiple weapons.

:dontknow: I just assume there's so much noise in today's leagues (all the players are both good and not good depending) that the combo of being specific, having cap space, and having lots to trade pretty much makes everyone available. They're not short on picks, have two firsts in 2024 including one from a talented Panthers team in a weak division Quibbling about how long he's been bad aside, the point is that Poles would be making a mistake if trying to make the Claypool trade work is bleeding into the rest of the offseason. Another way to look at Claypool's 2022 is 2 different teams gave him an open lane as a 3rd year WR viewed with some upside and he came up with 43/450/1. I'm not the one suggesting dump him either, just that they aren't in a good place at WR, pass catching, or offense in general once you get beyond Moore and maybe that it's OK to not use a 2nd round pick perfectly Quibbling doesn't apply when arguing fact vs non fact. But anyway, I agree it's OK if Claypool isn't good. The pick was worth a shot that your QB had help last year and into this year.. But if it was worth a shot middle of last season, it's definitely worth a shot for this season with a full offseason, camp and with another weapon taking the focus off of him to see if he can provide some value. Taking another WR at 9 (who isn't a top 10 player in this draft, IMO) just compounds the issue. You'll never get your answer on if Claypool was worth it because won't be enough footballs to go around. And you won't get to capitalize on the potential that he reaches his potential and the benefits of what happens if he at least shows his rookie season promise and gets paid handsomely by another team. There's a ton of WRs every year. It kinda defeats the purpose, IMO if you insist DJ Moore be included in the trade, just to spend your top asset on another guy at his same position. If JSN is worthy of the 9th pick, he should be worthy to build your WR corps around and then that 2025 1st has much more value than Moore, who while he wouldn't be redundant, also would not be worth the loss of the pick because JSN would serve the same purpose to allow Fields to take the next step.

I’d day they should already be there. Claypool’s been legit bad for two years now. At this point he’s basically Denzel Mims but Bears, a standout athlete for the position but not a top 3 WR on a quality depth chart (maybe they luck into one with Jones and Mooney). I can’t imagine there’s any stress about pushing Claypool down the depth chart with his very cheap deal Personally my Plan A for the Bears would be to walk out of this draft with all 3 of Johnston (top WR), Robinson (top RB), and Kinkaid the TE to compliment the more prototypical Kmet…Grab some late round IOL in a strong C/G draft, one of the late round QBs I listed for the Jets, and really see what Fields has with an offense that can attract next year’s top available NFL QB if things go south 2 years? He's only played 3 years. 2020 was a pretty good rookie year. 2021 he duplicated his rookie numbers everywhere but TD catches, despite playing 1 fewer game and with Big Ben being an actual corpse. 2022 he played with 2 teams, 2 completely different schemes, and 4 different starting QBs. I mean, he's probably not that good, but I don't think you can say he's "bad" based on that. I do agree with not stressing about pushing him down the depth chart because he's cheap, but it's also a waste of resources. I understand sunk costs and all, but you gave up the 32nd pick. Maybe they are turned off by him not learning the offense fast enough, but he had 125 snaps with Fields, then Justin missed the Jets game right when Claypool got comfortable in the offense (that week was his highest snap count w/ the Bears). The next week, he and Fields connected 5x in 1 1/3 quarters, Claypool got injured and basically missed every game until Week 18, when Fields sat again and Chase had his 2nd highest snap count. Like I said, maybe they didn't like his work ethic or fit or whatever, but there's otherwise no reason to dump him without really seeing what he can do in the offense. Also, not sure how you plan to pull off adding 3 first rounders to the offense this year.