Of course you'd like to look at it like that, because it's the only way to make your case. But in reality he's bee inconsistent. He's got a fairly high walk rate, his ERA+ has been up and down and he's highly susceptible to the HR. I liked him as a guy who you'd slot at the end of your rotation and hope for 180 mediocre innings. But he's nowhere near a #3 pitcher, and clearly not consistent. He could very well be the #4 or #5 guy in our rotation though if we get Schmidt or Westbrook. If we get Schmidt I have Z/Schmidt/Hill/Lilly/Miller-Prior, and if we get Westbrook I have Z/Hill/Westbrook/Lilly/Miller-Prior. Miller and/or Prior could come back healthy and be strong, so Lilly could even get bumped down to #5. I think penciling Lilly into the 3 slot is very premature.