XZero771679666304

I wonder if they'll send him somewhere this fall/winter to work on his mechanical issues.

Again, not really; even if all of the "likely" guys panned out (Bryant, Almora, Baez, Soler) you could fit all of them into the lineup without displacing Rizzo and Castro (Yeah, someone moves to 2B instead of SS, but nobody is getting kicked out). Vogelbach and Olt are long shots for different reasons, but still long shots. Basically. If you take the current roster and plug those guys in based on where there is need and where they can play, 1B is one of the last places you would think to put any of them, probably even if you are generous and add Olt to that list.

I think it's a lot more complicated than that. First and foremost, I think it has to be a scouting decision. His performance is way too wonky to just look at his Fangraphs page and estimate that he'll be halfway between the last two years or whatever. They have to decide if they think he can be fixed or not. Then they also have to decide how badly they want whatever they think he is going to do, vs. how badly someone else may want him. We actually are on the verge of having two MLB shortstops, and while either *Could* move to another position, it doesn't maximize their value if there's a good trade to be made. Other teams know about regression to the mean, too. If someone out there likes him, and they offer us something we really like, I don't have a problem with moving him. Even if it is a "sell low" or whatever. I was mostly making a smartass comment. And other teams also know about statistical regression, but they'd also certainly use his performance as leverage. From what Dale has said it seems like they've identified some mechanical flaws that can be addressed. The decision then becomes "do we take a chance that we can fix these problems, or do we deal him while his value is low and before his replacement is ready"? Unfortunately there is no formula to provide a strong indication of which route to take, at least with the information we have. Being that Baez isn't yet ready (even if he was, I doubt Theo/Jed don't make the play the protects the extra year of eligibility) and neither is Bryant, I doubt they trade him this offseason. His physical gifts (namely his hand/eye) are still very apparent, and I don't think the FO would be so quick to trade him for what he'd likely fetch, at least before they really try and work his flaws out.

I really like Len, but he either hedges his HR calls or is really bad at identifying home runs off the bat.

And definitely trending in the right direction.

I don't know that Theo and Jed foresaw Nate being as good as he has been, but signing him to that deal and protecting him in a platoon has looked like a pretty [expletive] prescient move. It'd look a lot better if they had found a better other half of the platoon. Hey, no shame in taking a shot at someone like Hairston. If that had worked out the production would have been epic. No, I absolutely agree with the thought behind it, but you can't heap on too much praise, hindsight and all. True, but Nate may be worth 3+ WAR alone by the end of the year.

Olt now? I've not nearly given up on him, but I't put the chances of him threatening Rizzo's job at about zero. If Bryant gets moved off of 3B it'll be to the OF, where there's an actual need. If Vogelbach is OPSing 1.000 in AA or AAA late next year and Rizzo has somehow gotten worse, then we can start seriously talking about the possibility of him taking Anthony's job. Listen, Rizzo has been worth 2-3 fWAR over the past 365 days. He's just turned 24 and he's going through some growing pains. Even if he doesn't improve one bit from this day forward (which I find incredibly unlikely), he's still an positive asset at 1B. You obviously dislike Rizzo for some reason, and it's affecting your judgement. You couldn't be more wrong. I think Rizzo has a good chance of improving but if he does not improve (and I think he will) THEN someone like Olt or Bryant or Vogelbach could challenge him for the 1B job IF they continue to develop. While Bryant is probably destined to CO, I think there is a good chance that either Olt or Vogelbach's hit tool develops to the point where a .250/.320/.420 first basemans job is in jeopardy. Personally I like Rizzo and think he bounces back to a .270/.350/.475 kind of guy. I don't think his hit tool is a consistent .850 OPS one. I think that Olt, Bryant and Vogelbach all have that kind of hit tool. Now, The question is will they reach it. You're using "hit tool" wrong. This too.

Olt now? I've not nearly given up on him, but I't put the chances of him threatening Rizzo's job at about zero. If Bryant gets moved off of 3B it'll be to the OF, where there's an actual need. If Vogelbach is OPSing 1.000 in AA or AAA late next year and Rizzo has somehow gotten worse, then we can start seriously talking about the possibility of him taking Anthony's job. Listen, Rizzo has been worth 2-3 fWAR over the past 365 days. He's just turned 24 and he's going through some growing pains. Even if he doesn't improve one bit from this day forward (which I find incredibly unlikely), he's still an positive asset at 1B. You obviously dislike Rizzo for some reason, and it's affecting your judgement. You couldn't be more wrong. I think Rizzo has a good chance of improving but if he does not improve (and I think he will) THEN someone like Olt or Bryant or Vogelbach could challenge him for the 1B job IF they continue to develop. While Bryant is probably destined to CO, I think there is a good chance that either Olt or Vogelbach's hit tool develops to the point where a .250/.320/.420 first basemans job is in jeopardy. Personally I like Rizzo and think he bounces back to a .270/.350/.475 kind of guy. I don't think his hit tool is a consistent .850 OPS one. I think that Olt, Bryant and Vogelbach all have that kind of hit tool. Now, The question is will they reach it. Vogelbach and Bryant, maybe. Olt? Not so much. And Vogelbach has a huge defensive gap to overcome as well. And there's a lot of "could" and "if" in what you've been saying, all of it very premature.

I don't know that Theo and Jed foresaw Nate being as good as he has been, but signing him to that deal and protecting him in a platoon has looked like a pretty [expletive] prescient move.

It's amazing. It makes me sad they didn't have cartoons like that when I was a kid. Well, we at least all had the old MGM/Warner Bros./etc. cartoons, but yeah, being a child of the 80's it was a lot of lame half hour toy commercials and not much else. I grew up on Looney Tunes and Merrie Melodies luh dat ish Well yeah, but that, while very funny, is all mindless slapstick and pratfalls. Some of the new, better stuff is smart, imaginative, original and genuinely cool. Not much of that when I was a kid.

Pretty much. That doesn't sound like the sort of hyperational game-theoryism that I expect from this front office. That's a gambler chasing losses. All right, you hold on to him and expect that he regresses to the mean.

It's amazing. It makes me sad they didn't have cartoons like that when I was a kid.

Yep, that's what they're gonna do alright. I mean his value is so high right now. Higher than it will be if he can't hit next year, too. You're already past the point of no return in terms of getting any kind of return you SHOULD get for Castro; at this point you have to just hold on and pray that he bounces back. Pretty much.

Yes

DeJesus is 1.5 WAR player. Whether or not we contend next year is almost certainly not going to be affected by this. The best available FA are OF, if we don't sign at least one of them it doesn't matter, if we do the DeJesus' trade becomes completely irrelevant. that makes no sense. even with a 100-110 million payroll, the cubs have tons of money to spend. this is still baseball and there are 2 wild cards, you can still go from trash to good in one offseason while other teams go to [expletive]. by your logic, what's the point of any team ever signing a 1.5 WAR free agent? or what's the point in the cubs signing anybody this offseason? 1-2 wins could be huge. it could decide a postseason spot. mostly, he makes the team better and i think we should try to make the team good His production is easily replaced. A Lake/Sweeney platoon would likely be cheaper and potentially more productive. If they plan on signing an OF this offseason, then DeJesus would be an extraneous piece. Final judgement on this should be withheld until we see what happens this offseason, but DeJesus isn't a guy who you look at and say "where are we going to recoup the production from?" either way.

DeJesus is 1.5 WAR player. Whether or not we contend next year is almost certainly not going to be affected by this. The best available FA are OF, if we don't sign at least one of them it doesn't matter, if we do the DeJesus' trade becomes completely irrelevant.

Olt now? I've not nearly given up on him, but I't put the chances of him threatening Rizzo's job at about zero. If Bryant gets moved off of 3B it'll be to the OF, where there's an actual need. If Vogelbach is OPSing 1.000 in AA or AAA late next year and Rizzo has somehow gotten worse, then we can start seriously talking about the possibility of him taking Anthony's job. Listen, Rizzo has been worth 2-3 fWAR over the past 365 days. He's just turned 24 and he's going through some growing pains. Even if he doesn't improve one bit from this day forward (which I find incredibly unlikely), he's still an positive asset at 1B. You obviously dislike Rizzo for some reason, and it's affecting your judgement.

Yep, that's what they're gonna do alright. You'd be surprised at that? I mean I'm sure we will get a major league ready player as well, but if they move Castro, prospects will be involved. I'd be shocked. Not that they'd move him, but that's they'd do it this offseason. At this point lots of variables are too, well, variable. If late in the 2014 season Baez has been brought up and is hitting, Bryant is still raking and moving up the ranks...then it makes more sense. Plus Castro's value is perhaps at its low point.

No, no one is. But some people are acting like it matters, and I think there's a good case that it won't make a lick of difference. I just don't see any compelling reason not to make the deal, even if it is just to save some pennies. I don't think anyone is acting like it's anything except indicative of larger issues. Indicative of potential issues, I agree.

It's because it feeds the fear that the payroll is going to keep plummeting. I think that is possible, but I don't think it is necessarily an indicator of that. They could be clearing space to sign a guy like Choo. Even if they replace him with Sweeney, it's pretty much a lateral move and saves some money. In summation: it doesn't really matter.

No, no one is. But some people are acting like it matters, and I think there's a good case that it won't make a lick of difference. I just don't see any compelling reason not to make the deal, even if it is just to save some pennies.

No [expletive]. But there's basically no way that happens regardless, unless damn near everything breaks really right. Well, unless some teams get really generous in trade negotiations with the Cubs. I really don't think losing DeJesus has any tangible effect on next year's outcome in any case.

Really interesting that he likes Baez's SS defense to wind up better than Castro's. And his comment that Bryant, Baez, Soler and Vogelbach have 40 HR power. Ie Rizzo and Castro better get their crap together. Or else what? It's not like you couldn't fit Bryant, Baez and Soler onto the team when they're ready if Castro and Rizzo are still there. I'm leaving out Vogelbach because he's a fatty fatty fat fat and the NL sucks. I still think Bryant/Soler end up on the OF corners. I'm pretty sure he's saying Vogelbach is the threat to Rizzo. That said, if you'd consider Abreu as a 1B option, you'd have to say Vogelbach would be too.

Really interesting that he likes Baez's SS defense to wind up better than Castro's. And his comment that Bryant, Baez, Soler and Vogelbach have 40 HR power. Ie Rizzo and Castro better get their crap together. You keep insinuating that Rizzo is in danger of losing his job to Vogelbach, but I don't think that dog will hunt. Rizzo, imo, is only going to get better (he's still quite young, remember). I think he'd have to get worse before we got into "he batter watch out for Vogelbach" territory.

Yeah, this is worrisome in terms of going into 2014. I don't think it moves the needle much on 2014 even in a worst case scenario. DeJesus has value, but he's a 1.5-2 win player. I'm with Kyle in that I think this is a vote of confidence in Lake. If he even approximates his performance thus far (yeah, far from a guarantee), it replaces most or all of DeJesus' WAR contribution. Sweeney is a wild card here, too. If the Cubs decide to bring him back, I think he's a good bet to provide some value. And there's always the chance of moves being made that we're not anticipating.