I think what it boils down to is that Pujols wasn't going to sign unless the Cards offered him something ridiculous. Knowing that, there wasn't much of a reason for the Cards to offer him something absurd. They can do that next winter when they actually know what the market is going to be for him. I don't doubt that. But their offer is still telling, because it wasn't even serious, let alone ridiculous. 27M isn't ridiculous, it's about what they should expect to pay him. And they are taking a big gamble that someone else won't offer him a huge deal, which is a grievous mistake. Someone will (FTR, I hope it isn't us, at least not for that many years) give him a contract worth at least 30MM in AAV, you can book it. My money is on the Angels. They've struck out badly the past few offseasons, and I can totally see Arte Moreno backing up the truck for Albert. The Cubs will make a serious offer as well. You could see offers that aren't 10 years, but more in the vicinity of 6-7 years 30-34MM per. In the face of offers like that, accepting a contract with an annual value of less than 27-28MM per just won't be an option for him. If I'm DeWitt and Mo, I make my best offer now. Unless you're prepared to let him go, betting you won't end up in a bidding war with clubs who have far more resources is just foolishness. Bottom line is this: if he makes to free agency, Cards fans can likely kiss him goodbye. And listen, as a Cubs fan, my fondest hope is that the Cards tie up 30MM+ a season in Pujols. It would severely impede your ability to field a championship caliber club for a long time. Your team is top heavy as it is, what do you think would happen if Albert is tying up a quarter of the payroll? DeWitt and Mozeliak aren't idiots, and almost surely are formulating contingencies for life after Albert.