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dew1679666265

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Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    For those who care, Janzen Jackson has enrolled at McNeese State. My guess is he'll play there for a year and then enter the NFL draft. He'll be a really interesting guy to watch in the draft.
  2. dew1679666265
    That would really set the Cubs back if they're already going to be without Zambrano in 2011. I'm not necessarily big on extending him, but him sticking around another year due to his player's option is likely a good thing. Yeah, I can see both sides of the argument on extending him, but we definitely need him next year. And there's no reason not to want him back - he's still pitching well (or very well), we have a lot of rotation question marks, and we don't have anybody really making a case to start immediately next year.
  3. dew1679666265
    The rotation uncertainty is actually the reason I'd consider giving him a slight extension. Even assuming we sign CJ Wilson this offseason, that gives us just Wilson and Garza as sure things for the 2013 rotation. Z is likely gone (right or not), Cashner is a major durability question mark, and Wells is a major performance question mark. He may well decline, but he's been much better than most people realize the past few years and after a dreadful April he's largely been terrific (other than a July hiccup). You can't ignore the struggles, but being great for most of the season is a real positive. He's actually probably a pretty good candidate to age gracefully. He's been a reliever for a little while, so his arm has had quite the mileage a 33 year old pitcher would, and he doesn't rely on overpowering stuff, meaning as long as his control stays he should be at least decent. If you can get him for $10-12 million a year, you can afford a bit of a dropoff.
  4. dew1679666265
    It may depend on how long he wants to keep pitching. If he only wants to pitch for a couple years after this one, the security of knowing he'll be a Cub the entire time plus getting a few extra million might be worth it to him. I can see where it wouldn't however.
  5. dew1679666265
    Something like 2/20 might be a good deal for both sides - maybe with a club option for a third year for a little more money. Dempster gets the security likely through the remainder of his career, and the Cubs save a few million for next year if they choose to pursue two major FAs. He's also not so expensive that it's crippling if he falls off a cliff either of the next two years.
  6. dew1679666265
    Janzen Jackson was dismissed from the UT football team Thursday. Really disappointing, but not all that surprising. He's a fantastic talent, but has had all kinds of problems since coming to UT. The original Lane Kiffin recruiting class is now pretty much Tyler Bray and nothing else - Lane leaving and Dooley coming in is looking more and more like a great switch. In other, more positive, news, the NCAA announced it would not levy any new sanctions on Tennessee. All self-imposed sanctions were accepted and nothing new added on. Very good news as it takes the uncertainty away from the program's future.
  7. dew1679666265
    Why favor Cuddyer so strongly over Pena? Pena career WAR/season: 1.7 Cuddyer career WAR/season: 1.3 Past 5 seasons WAR: Pena: 1.6, 1.0, 2.9, 3.7, 6.0 Cuddyer: 3.0, .8, 2.8, 0.0, 2.5 Career wOBA: Pena: .358 Cuddyer: .346 Pena is just one year older than Cuddyer as well. To me, if you like one there's no reason not to like the other and if one is a good fallback option then the other should be as well. They're very similar players.
  8. dew1679666265
    Isn't Colletti from Chicago or used to work there or something? That local tie might be why they assume he'll be a candidate.
  9. dew1679666265
    Ah, I see. I'd love to see them do that, but in my planning I'm assuming they hold payroll steady at around $130 million. If they do that, they can't afford Wilson, Ramirez, and Fielder/Pujols. They'd have to add something like $7-12 million to the payroll to be able to afford all three - something Ricketts may well do, but I'm not expecting it. It'd be a great decision, though, because bringing Aramis back in and of itself is a good decision.
  10. dew1679666265
    If the Blue Jays are the highest bidder, I don't think Boras will tell Prince not to sign with them. If Friedman goes to the Cubs, the Jays could easily become the next Tampa - which clearly isn't an ideal competing position, but isn't completely hopeless either. It's not like the Jays are the Royals or Pirates. And the Yankees and Angels concern me as well - unless, as with the Jays, there are really good young corner infielders I don't know about in Anaheim.
  11. dew1679666265
    I can buy that, hadn't kept up with who Thames was or that Lawrie had taken over at third.
  12. dew1679666265
    4.6 WAR in 2009 and 4.3 WAR in 2010 (according to Fangraphs) and a 2.8 WAR so far this year. His FIP and xFIP have been in the mid-3s each of the past two seasons as well. Solid numbers for a 28 year old pitcher. If we're deadset on dumping Z, Floyd would make for a really nice replacement. The real question is how much would it take to get him? I wonder if we could build some kind of deal around a guy like Nick Struck or someone like that (a guy with some upside at a high level but still with some question marks)?
  13. dew1679666265
    Do you mean add Wilson and Fielder/Pujols and then re-sign Aramis? I'd be all for that, but it'd take a huge bump in payroll to do it. If you mean bring Aramis back for 2-3 more seasons instead of adding Wilson, I still don't think that's the right move. Aramis is a great player, but he's had some injury issues (especially of late) and is 33 years old. You'd be re-signing him for his age 34 and 35 seasons, which could be fine but could also end up being a pretty bad contract if he declines the entire contract and/or gets hurt again. Wilson is 31, but he was a reliever all but 2 years of his major league career, so the mileage on his arm is much lower than most 31 year old starters - meaning he should stay highly productive for longer. And while Aramis will probably only help us greatly for 1-2 more years, Wilson could be highly productive for 3-4 years. So the point still stands, even if Aramis might be the better option next year, the Wilson + Pujols/Fielder route could easily be better next year and will be better long term.
  14. dew1679666265
    We still need one more person for this, right?
  15. dew1679666265
    The Blue Jays may very well be big players in it as well. I believe they have a lot of money to spend and they have a really smart GM in Alex Anthopoulous. Adam Lind is a nice player at first, but he can shift back to the outfield to open up first for either.
  16. dew1679666265
    From the perspective of the time-value of money, you're right. From the perspective of managing a payroll, you're not. Imagine if a team like the Royals signed a bunch of veterans to backloaded contracts that ramped up at the same time that guys like Hosmer, Moustakas, etc. were hitting arbitration/free agency. That would not be good, because the backloaded contracts would prevent them from keeping their younger stars. In that instance, they would be better served paying off the veterans while the young guys are still cheap. The problem there would really be the Royals with a tiny budget signing a bunch of veterans period.
  17. dew1679666265
    That would be incredible, but I'm going to assume it's speculation because I don't want to get my hopes to an unreal level.
  18. dew1679666265
    No, you can set up an autopick similar to a snake draft. It's more an order of importance, though, and the AI will bid on each player up to the point that you authorize it to.
  19. dew1679666265
    I think that's a needed dose of reality for a lot of Cubs fans. His point would be a lot better if the plan were to give Pujols/Fielder a 1 year contract. However, his estimate is that the Cubs could be contending in 2013 or 2014 - at which point Pujols/Fielder will still be under contract and likely still incredibly productive. Adding Pujols/Fielder would be a long term signing, not a 1 year thing. Also, unless you count Bonds, we haven't seen a player like Pujols in most of our lifetimes and the likelihood of another player of that caliber hitting the market again in the next 2-3 years is amazingly unlikely.
  20. dew1679666265
    You have to factor into any evaluation of Cashman the fact that the Steinbrenners (both George and Hank) have forced some pretty ill-advised signings on him. Because of that he's a little harder than some others to evaluate, but he has spoken of a commitment to building through the farm in the past few years and seems to value the farm system and developing from within more than the Steinbrenners do. Because of the questions surrounding what Cashman would do out from under the influence of the Steinbrenners, however, I prefer Friedman to him.
  21. dew1679666265
    Most people on here are aware of that, I believe, but the thinking is that Friedman might prefer an organization that will spend whatever money is necessary to win (both at the major league level and at the amateur level) and has more resources than almost anyone else in baseball over a team whose only real draw is that it's located where Friedman was born. Doesn't mean that will happen - he could stay in Tampa for all we know - but I think it's a very legitimate possibility.
  22. dew1679666265
    That seems to be what Bruce was getting at in the second comment. It would make sense, as well, given the differing interest levels of Zell and Ricketts.
  23. dew1679666265
    Bruce appears to not be a fan of Kenney either. On whether Hendry reported to Kenney or Ricketts:
  24. dew1679666265
    If that skill fills a valuable role on next year's team at a reasonable cost, what's wrong with making use of that skill? Especially when there are 4-5 more bench spots that can be used for guys who can do more.
  25. dew1679666265
    This is a really good point and one I should have brought up earlier. Bringing back Aramis is a 1-2 year thing tops, whereas both Fielder/Pujols and Wilson can help us quite a bit over the next 3-8 years. Simply put, bringing back Aramis is an all or nothing move for next year, whereas investing in Fielder/Pujols and Wilson can help us next year and in the future. Even if the overall upgrade next year were minimal, the 1B/P option helps us down the road, whereas bringing Aramis back does not.
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