dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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As do I. And the team will win more with Pena than with LaHair, if it comes down to that choice. I think we both agree that it shouldn't come down to that choice, though.
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I'd actually be fine with trading him for best offer on the table, whatever it may be. If all the offers are crap right now, however, I have no problem keeping him through tomorrow and trying to deal him in August. One way or the other, though, I think we should go ahead and trade him even if the offer is underwhelming.
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I'm sure we could get more for Pena than Lee, but my point was the Pirates acquiring Lee for a Class A OF isn't a sign that we could have traded Pena to them for a great package. Basically, the opportunity we're passing up by keeping Pena is pretty small - even though there's no reason to pass up that opportunity.
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Big market teams don't go with LaHair over Pena. Assuming we don't sign Fielder or Pujols in the offseason, you're right that a lot of fans won't turn out either way. However, more will come out to see a team that has Pena over one with LaHair.
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Pena's the only guy who it's inexplicable that they've not traded. Byrd, Baker, Aramis can help us next year and Reed and Grabow may simply not be drawing any interest. I don't think Hendry not trading Pena is an indictment of Ricketts.
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So they won't turn out to see a better version of this team, but they will turn out to see a team that fields AAAA players? If the Cubs bring Pena back and sign Wilson they probably won't contend but they'll come a lot closer than if they start LaHair at first. The minute possibility that Pena produces another 6 win season is enough to go with him over LaHair.
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Hahahaha settle down. You don't even know what the Pirates are giving up, if the deal even happens. Not trading Pena is a bad idea, but potentially not really that bad. It's being reported that the Orioles are getting a Class A hitter for DLee.
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Furcal to Cardinals
dew1679666265 replied to erik316wttn's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
They definitely won't contend for anything if they don't field a right fielder. :D Seriously, I think they can with that lineup. When you take into account a potentially very good rotation of Garza/Wilson/Dempster/Z/Wells, you don't need a dominant offense to compete. I'd definitely give LaMaheieu a shot at 2nd over Barney to get a little more offense in, though. It's nitpicking but I'd also bat Soto at the top of the lineup instead of Barney/LaMaheieu. In that scenario I'm banking on Flaherty being fairly productive facing only right handers and I'm hoping that defensive improvements make the pitching that much better. It's not a surefire contention strategy, but the Central is likely to be somewhere between really bad and horrid next year. It won't take a lot to hang in there. -
I wouldn't support going with LaHair either. With Pena there might be a 10% chance to contend (I'm making up numbers here, don't get too hung up on them). It's not a good chance, but there is a chance. With LaHair, who may well put up a 0 WAR or worse, that small chance drops further. Plus, if it's blatantly obvious the Cubs aren't trying to contend, they'll lose even more fans and the ballpark will get even more thin.
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Fielder has been worth 3.4 WAR so far this year, Pena's been worth 1.0. I'm concerned that Pena's value will deteriorate heading into his age 35 season, while Fielder may well get better entering his age 28 season. We could contend with Pena instead of Fielder, but it'd be more based on getting lucky with regression not kicking in. In order to contend next year we need as many wins as we can get from our offseason additions, so 3-4+ extra wins from Fielder/Pujols would be pretty important.
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Yeah, not trading Pena makes no sense whatsoever. I'm a little concerned it's a sign they either are currently in doubt as to whether they'll pursue Pujols/Fielder or they've already decided they won't.
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The Braves are getting desperate to acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder, especially with guys like Pence and Beltran off the market. They are loaded with young pitching talent and Mike Minor appears to be the guy they were dangling for Pence. If Frank Wren comes back to the Cubs and offers Minor for Byrd, I really hope Hendry gives it strong consideration. I can't imagine the Braves would even consider dangling Minor for Byrd. Pence is a far more valuable player than Byrd.
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Harden to Boston for Lars Anderson and a PTBNL. Wow.
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Yeah, I'm hoping this sort of thing is the case, that the lack of motivation was due to a piss poor offer. If the return isn't even worth the potential comp pick, then it's not worth it. If Hendry doesn't want to move him just because he doesn't want to move him, that's something else altogether. I'm hoping Hendry doesn't see keeping Pena as an insurance policy if we don't get one of the big first basemen. By the time those two are off the market, any benefit we receive from keeping Pena will be gone. There's really no reason not to trade Pena, though I could understand turning down a few poor offers hoping to get a better one before the deadline or sometime in August.
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Signing Pena would be a bad move insomuch as it's a sign that it's going to be extremely difficult to contend if we settle for him. There's a limit on exactly how high I'd like to see the Cubs go to get Fielder, but it'd be a pretty high limit. He or Pujols are almost a must this offseason. I don't think there should be any doubt at this point that the Ricketts are willing to spend money - the rumors that we're going to sign Maples, Vogelbach, Dunston, etc, show that. The question I have, however, is what is the balance going to be between the major league and minor league budget. If the Cubs don't drop payroll, however, we have a very good shot of coming out of the offseason with Pujols or Fielder at a minimum and possibly/probably CJ Wilson as well.
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Furcal to Cardinals
dew1679666265 replied to erik316wttn's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Why not? We have the money under the budget for 1 of Fielder/Pujols and then CJ Wilson, so it'd have to be that the Yankees or somebody swooped in and gave outrageous money or simply because you don't believe the Cubs would pursue filling both holes. We would have to let Aramis go in that scenario, but we're very equipped to fill third base with league average or better production. A platoon of Flaherty/Baker wouldn't give us Aramis level production, but they'd likely be above average offensively at third base. The improvements would be Fielder over Pena (significant) and Wilson over the current 5th starter quagmire (very, very significant) and then the downgrade from Aramis to a Flaherty/Baker platoon (hard to tell for sure, would be dependent on how well Flaherty adjusted to hitting ML pitching). -
Can the starting pitching be fixed for 2012?
dew1679666265 replied to Fro's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If we trade Byrd, who takes his place next year? There's also the issue that the other team needs to have an interest in the player you're shopping and have enough interest to give up one or more of those upper level arms that you're coveting. -
Agreed, doesn't sound like much, but the Cubs gave up Gorzelanny to save peanuts this year. And to get three intriguing prospects. The Cubs didn't give Gorzo away for nothing just to save a couple of bucks. They didn't feel he'd be a useful bullpen arm, the Nationals were willing to overpay, and they saved $2 million. There were a number of reasons they dealt Gorzo.
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They hired Wade Phillips as the new DC before the lockout and are now transitioning to a 3-4.
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Josh Zeid is one of the two PTBNLs. The other is still unknown.
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Probably too much to hope that the Cards would get rid of Shelby Miller here.....
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Very doubtful. Pence is 6 years younger than Byrd and while both have been worth 17 wins in their careers, Byrd has been worth that many wins in 10 years while Pence has been worth it in 6 years. Pence is a far more valuable player than Byrd.
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As TT pointed out their success to this point hasn't been built on trading away every good young player in their system. Had it been, it wouldn't have lasted more than 3-4 years. The strategy isn't necessarily wrong, since if you do it right and get some luck you'll net 1-3 titles out of it. However, if it doesn't work you handicap yourself for multiple years with on real reward.
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If you get the flags, sure. If you don't, however, then when that 3 year window closes, you're looking at either floundering for a while as you rebuild your farm system or being like the Cubs in the Hendry era and filling every roster spot with FAs and loading up way too many contracts to win with any consistency.
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The choices shouldn't be either 2 great prospects + cash or a couple of average veterans. The choice should be 2 great prospects + cash or don't trade him. And Young and Slowey aren't much better than AAAA players. Slowey has been worth an average of just over 1 WAR per season and Young has been worth a total of 1.7 WAR his entire career.