dew1679666265

Wilson was worth 4.4 WAR last season (his first as a starter) and has been worth 3.8 so far this year. Fielder was worth 6.4 WAR two years ago, just 3.4 last year, but 3.4 already to this point this year. Both are better players at their respective positions than we signed at any point during the Hendry era. Wilson will be 32 next season, but isn't likely to sign more than a 3-4 year deal and he's been a reliever most of his career - meaning he's got much less mileage on his arm than his age would indicate - and Fielder will only be 28 next year. I wouldn't give Wilson more than $13-15 a year and Fielder no more than $25-27 a year, but both would be good signings.

I'd be interested too.

That makes sense.

Id be more comfortable with Dempster as a 3rd starter. The problem is, who is out there good enough to be better than Demp? Wilson maybe, but the likelihood is that Dempster will be our second best starting pitcher going into next season. And if his horrid start were really a fluke, that'd be fine.

I understand inflation, but I keep getting hung up on not wanting to pay Kosuke anything for his age 37 season even if it means paying a little extra each of the next two. That said, as I told Truffle, I wouldn't support a 2/20 or 3/20 deal for Kosuke anyway.

I think he could be worth close to $10 million next year, then less in 2013 and then very little in 2014 - if his defense rebounds next year, that is. I would not be in favor of giving him a 2/20 or a 3/20 contract anyway, however.

I understand the idea that $20 million over 3 years is less than over 2 years in totality, but if you can split that 2014 money in half each of the next two years and then cut off an entire year from the contract of an old player, it seems you're at least coming out even and maybe ahead. I guess I'm not really seeing how a $6 million lump sum 3 years from now is less than $3 million each next year and two years from now and then owing nothing three years from now. I hadn't considered accounting tricks that make Kosuke basically free for a year, though. I may just be bad at math and financing concepts.

Because winning the division shouldn't be the goal. If the goal is to win the WS, the division will come. This attitude drives me crazy. The ultimate goal should obviously be to build a World Series caliber team, however, the first key is making it into the playoffs. If you can simply make the playoffs, you have as good a chance as anybody to make and win the World Series. The Cubs probably can't do enough this offseason to make this roster a World Series favorite. However, they can do enough to make this a playoff caliber team and if they make the playoffs they have the opportunity to win the World Series. We've seen plenty of teams - Cardinals and White Sox especially - recently make the playoffs with mediocre overall rosters and win because they got hot at the right time (Cardinals) or they got stellar pitching in the playoffs (White Sox). If you blow this team up this offseason, however, there's no chance the team competes even just for a playoff spot, much less a World Series - and blowing up the team would probably keep them from playoff competition for at least 2-3 years, if not more. With a big payroll team that can be a frontrunner to sign Pujols or Fielder, there's simply no reason to blow it up simply because we could be good but not elite next year.

Chris Mortensen on Mike and Mike this morning said he thinks the lockout will be lifted and business will begin tomorrow. He sounded a bit hesitant saying that, though.

Out of curiosity, why? I'd prefer not to have the extra $6-7 million sitting on the payroll in 2014 when we know he won't be productive enough then to be worth the money, but he could be worth close to $10 mil the next two seasons (especially if his defense rebounds).

So you think Soriano makes the mental calculations, decides he can make the play and, on a regular basis, chooses not to make the play? And on CCP's point, if Soriano does have worse instincts than most other OFs, then wouldn't that make his calculations wrong more often than most - and thus meaning he'd dive more often when he shouldn't and let the ball dribble back to the wall (or to the backing up defender)? Or, perhaps, that due to his poor instincts that he passes up diving for some balls he could get not due to laziness, but instead because he legitimately doesn't think he can get it?

I'd be fine with re-signing Kosuke to a cheap, 1-2 year deal on one of two conditions: 1: We trade Marlon Byrd and free up CF for Brett Jackson. 2: We find a decent deal for Soriano (either the other team takes at least 50% of his contract or gives us solid prospects) and free up a spot for Brett Jackson. Basically, I want to have a spot for Brett Jackson next year. I don't have strong feelings on which current OF to get rid of, however.

He's almost certainly going to be completely unproductive by his age 37 season, so I'd rather spread the ~$6 million over two years than have him take up a roster spot and/or be $6 million of deadweight all in one year. In reality, however, I wouldn't give him a 3-year deal or $10 mil a year.

If it's simply who would I prefer, I guess Fukudome. His patience wins out over whatever power Soriano will contribute.

What kind of prospects are we looking at getting back in this Soriano trade? In this scenario, we'd be paying $40 million of the $60 million remaining on his deal, so I'd want to get something of value back. I'm more of a Kosuke fan than most on this board, but I'm not sure he'll be all that valuable when he's signed for just under $7 mil a year through his age 37 season. If we got a modest return for Soriano and you could decrease Kosuke's deal to, say, 2/$20, I'd probably take option B.

Didn't see today's game, so I didn't take into account him getting roughed up in it - all I saw was that the Phillies scored 9 runs. As for breaking down his numbers, I think it's important to note that his overall numbers are being hurt by a really horrid start. First off, it disproves the notion Darkside brought up that Dempster's been awful all year - he was only awful for a month. Second, three months of trending upward is a pretty significant fact to point out when trying to project a guy going forward.

No, he hasn't. He had a nightmare April but has been very good since. Yep. Shamelessly copy and pasted from a recent CubColtPacer post: Dempster's been pretty awesome for nearly 3 months now.

It really isn't presumptive to think that the guy who said all money will go back into the team will keep to his word. If, after the Cubs have back to back awful seasons, Ricketts comes in and drops payroll even further, the Cubs will get even worse and even fewer fans will show up. The worst possible business decision at this point is to drop payroll and alienate more fans and Ricketts knows that. I don't expect much, if any, payroll increase, but the most likely scenario is it holding steady right around $134 mil. And you're right that Aramis isn't factored into the $60 mil I quoted, I remembered incorrectly. But $2 mil already is (the buyout) and picking up the option (the most expensive option) cuts $12 mil from that total. The Cubs could quite easily fit Fielder and Wilson into $48 mil and should be able to fit Pujols/Wilson into it. With as many prospects as we have coming up, we shouldn't need to sign any more free agents than that. This team can still easily afford to add the necessary starpower to fit around the young guys coming up and contend next year. I understand your feeling, as I've said in this thread I'm not opposed to trading Aramis in the perfect deal. But not because the Cubs don't have a chance to compete next year (they do). It's because we have a chance to compete that I'd want pretty much the perfect deal to even consider trading him.

Actually, the Cubs are in a position to do both. Guys like Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Ryan Flaherty, DJ LeMaheieu are on the brink of making the majors and while none of them will be stars, all of them could be average major leaguers fairly soon. Add in the $60 million the Cubs have coming off the books this offseason and they can make a serious run at (and really have no reason not to get one of) Fielder or Pujols and then CJ Wilson if rotation depth is needed. Add those two FAs, plus the young guys producing cheaply and the Cubs would be in a pretty good position to compete in the division (at least) next year and continue improving from there.

I've been a proponent of trading Aramis in the past, but it's been for (example) Jesus Montero (plus). Somebody like Montero could immediately be slotted into the third base hole and might produce in the vicinity of Aramis (at least offensively) within the next year or two. There'd clearly have to be more added on to Montero, but I'm simply not familiar enough with the Yankees' system to know who to target and who, combined with Montero, would be worth giving up for Aramis. The likelihood of that type of deal going down is extremely low, but that's fine with me. I would be perfectly happy going into 2012 with Aramis at third.

I agree with all of that. Just pointing out that Singleton's been good prior to this year.

In fairness, BA ranked Singleton the 39th best prospect in baseball before 2011 and he's OPSd .835 and .872 the previous two years. He's also only 19.

Marmol is in his sixth season on the Cubs. Fifth full season. You are correct. Going off memory I was thinking he had the early starting stint and then didn't come back up until either 08 or 09.

At this point he's most definitely a disappointment - for the hype and money he came in with, anything short of a mid rotation starter would have been a disappointment. But if he can turn into a good middle reliever or a decent to good setup guy, I wouldn't label him a bust either.

toonsterwu put it better than I ever could, but just to give you a quick list of the decent to good prospects in the Cubs' system who have been drafted by Wilken: BJax, McNutt, Szczur, Cashner, LeMaheieu, Flaherty, Jay Jackson, Vitters, Ben Wells, Austin Kirk, Nick Struck, Whitenack, Barney, Golden, Alberto Cabrera, Kurcz, and others. He's not had a great draft to date and I'd agree with toonster that he's had a couple good drafts, a couple average drafts (with the possibility of downgrading one from each of those) and a terrible draft (06). Open up the checkbook a bit more and you might see 1-2 great drafts in upcoming years. Really, depending on who we're able to sign and how guys develop, the 11 draft has real potential to be a great draft. As for the Cubs having a mediocre system, they were well on their way according to some to having a top 10 system soon, but then they graduated Castro and Cashner and traded Hak Ju Lee, Chris Archer and Brandon Guyer - all top 10 prospects in the system. Any system that loses five of its top 10 prospects all at once is going to plummet the following season.