dew1679666265

I'd rather sign Wilson than give up that much for Ubaldo.

That's why I said should - he's better, more productive and there's need for first basemen. But how strong is that perceived need.

no way we get anything of value for him. We should get a better value than we did for DLee last year.

He's been pretty awesome for a couple of years in the minors, but it hasn't translated to ML success yet. Injuries were a bit problem for him after leaving the Cubs. With the Gregg trade, I didn't really have a problem dealing Ceda for a closer, just didn't like targeting Gregg.

I think he was a very raw low A pitcher at the time we got him - too raw to be all that highly regarded. If we can get a guy with that kind of ceiling for Reed, though, I'd be happy - since I pretty much expect a PTBNL type deal for him.

They definitely did that with Bradley. Heck, you can find a ton of posts even on this site about, "Korey doesn't even care that he struck out. Look at his face when he goes back to the dugout." Good point on CPatt.

While I think he'll get some work in still this calendar year, I agree about not counting on him as a member of the ML rotation next year. But I'm not opposed to having him be the #6/7 option (prefer #7). That's what I'm thinking. Start him in AAA with McNutt and Jay Jackson and make him the seventh rotation option behind McNutt (and behind JJax if he rebounds in the second half of this year).

They definitely did that with Bradley.

If we got a great return, I'd be up for trading him. I'd want to bring Kosuke back if we do that, though, to avoid the Colvin/Reed mess in right.

Gotcha. I read that wrong initially, thinking you were saying teams wouldn't look to sign Marshall as a closer.

We're talking about going into next season and beyond right? If so, McNutt should be healthy to start next year, Whitenack should be ready by midseason or so (somebody can correct me if I'm wrong), Wells will have an offseason to get fully healthy, Cabrera and Struck will have had nearly a full season of AAA ball, and Jay Jackson might be a starting option. Obviously it'd be ideal to not have to go past Wells/McNutt/Cashner on the rotation depth, but we should have options next year in the higher levels of the minors. It probably won't take keeping ARam and upgrading first and the rotation to be competitive in the Central next year. In a hypothetical situation, let's say we sign Fielder and CJ Wilson (roughly $40 million combined), let Aramis go and make no other moves of significance. That gives us a rotation of: Garza/Dempster/Wilson/Z/Wells with McNutt/Cashner as the first two in the minors (and the possibility of a hail mary Sheets type signing as well). That's 3 legit top of the rotation guys and a couple of averagish back of the rotation guys. And it gives us this lineup: Castro Soto Fielder Byrd Flaherty/Baker Soriano BJax Barney/LeMaheieu P You're probably below average at two positions (LF and wherever BJax plays) and both of those could be average. That rotation and lineup aren't giving you the best team in the NL by any stretch, but it can certainly compete in a Central division where .500 could win it.

All of this is true, but lefty specialists don't garner much in trades. Even if a team envisioned Marshall as their closer down the stretch, they're still going to use the fact that he's got very, very few career saves as a negotiating ploy to knock down the return they're willing to give us. If I were going to trade Marshall (which I'm not completely opposed to), I'd want a closer type return for him and I don't think any team is going to give that for a guy who's never been a closer. What would be your thoughts on trying to trade Marmol (whose value would be inflated due to the closer tag) and then making Marshall the closer and then, if we're out of the race next year, trading him at the 2012 deadline? That's the scenario I'd prefer if I were trading one of the two.

I could see a team signing Marshall to be their closer, but they're not going to pay him like a top shelf closer. Just like they wouldn't give us closer value in a trade either.

BA preseason top farm systems (post Garza trade): Reds #6 Cubs #16 Pirates #19 Cardinals #24 Astros #26 Brewers #30 After signing DeVoss and Gretzky and if the rumors are true that we've signed Dugan, Maples, Vogelbach and Dunston, that 16th ranking is going to shoot up. Some of that ranking is on the strength of the low minors, but we've got far more than just Jackson, Flaherty and McNutt at AA and AAA. The rest of the teams on the major league side in the division aren't exactly stellar either. The Brewers lead the division at 6 games over .500, which puts first in one other division - a tie with the Tigers to lead the AL Central. They'd be anywhere from 4 to about 12 games out of first in every other division. And they almost certainly will lose their best hitter (Fielder) after the year. If the Cubs are content to have Pena at first and their only real addition is a starting pitcher, then no they likely won't get better enough to contend next year (though it'd be a slim possibility). But if they use the money coming off the books well, get one of Pujols/Fielder and sign a guy like CJ Wilson, then there's no reason why they can't be right in the thick of the NL Central next season.

The closer stigma is still very important to the more traditional organizations around the league. Guys who have compiled saves immediately become significantly more attractive to teams than even superior pitchers who don't have saves. Marshall is a dominant reliever, but I don't think many teams will see him as a closer because he's never done it before. Thus, they'll likely be less willing to give up a closer-type package for him and the comps you laid out of the Lidge and Capps trades would be a greater return than we'd likely get for Marshall. If you really want to maximize Marshall's value on the market, the best thing would be to aggressively shop Marmol now and make Marshall the closer the rest of this season and next. At that point, if we're out of the race at the deadline next year, we can shop Marshall as a "proven" closer.

I can see the Cubs getting one nice arm for Johnson like they got for Todd Walker a few years back. Was that Jose Ceda, who in turn got us Kevin Gregg? Yep. I'd be thrilled if we got a Jose Ceda-type prospect for Reed.

My biggest concern with scenario 1 is that (and I probably should have mentioned this in my original post) Cashner would be in the rotation in either scenario. As much as I like Cashner, we need to have some depth prepared behind him. Going with Wells, a hail mary like Sheets or Kazmir, or a rookie like McNutt would give us the potential for two holes in the rotation and no depth, whereas scenario 2 would give us only the potential for one hole in the rotation and we'd have McNutt and maybe Whitenack (depending on his rehab) as depth behind Cashner.

I'm torn. On one hand, I've not lost all faith in Wells yet and there's a nagging concern I have that Wilson won't be worth the potential contract he may get. At the same time, Aramis' recent injuries have me a tad concerned about him going forward, but I'm not sure if I'm overrating what Flaherty could do with the bat as a third baseman. I would probably tend toward scenario 2 as well, though, since offense at third base is down so much and the threshold for a Baker/Flaherty platoon to be average could be so low.

I guess that's where we differ - I don't think we should be planning on next year as a rebuilding year. If we can add Pujols or Fielder there's no reason why this team can't compete in a very weak Central division. My thinking is if we got a good enough deal to justify trading Byrd, then we should bring Kosuke back for a year or two. He's not a perfect option, but he's still very likely to be much better than a Reed/FA platoon and shouldn't cost much more than the $6.5 million we'd no longer owe Byrd. If you don't want BJax to fill CF at the start of the season in that scenario, then I'd give the starting job to Colvin over Reed as well. We know Reed would be a really bad starting option in any of the three OF spots and while Colvin probably wouldn't be good, he's likely to be better than Reed as a starter as well. Then, if we're out of it by the break you trade Kosuke and call up Jackson. Or if we're in it and Colvin isn't performing, you cut Colvin and call up Jackson. If we're talking about ideal scenarios, I'd prefer to have Castro and Soto at the top of the order and go in-house at second. In my earlier scenario, we'd also have Kosuke back and he could go at the top of the order. I just don't see a need to spend at second when that would mean we couldn't spend on the rotation or at third base. And wouldn't Jackson likely be a CF if he came up next year? I assumed he was good enough defensively in center to push Byrd to right, at least until one of Ha or Szczur make it to the majors.

I'd have no desire to see Reed in any sort of starting role. He's posted nice numbers this year based very heavily on a significant BABIP, but he's proven that he's a very mediocre bat overall. I'd start Brett Jackson from day one before giving the starting job to Reed. I don't really see the need to spending money on second either. I don't think there's much out there (except maybe Jose Reyes) at second and we've got a bunch of young candidates for the job - Barney, LeMahaieu, Flaherty.

Assuming Pujols/Fielder are the targets to fill first base, it appears third base and starting pitcher are the other two spots that could be filled by a FA of significance. If we can only afford a big money guy at one of those two spots, which would people on here prefer? Scenario 1: Pujols/Fielder at 1B, Aramis at 3B, Wells in rotation Scenario 2: Pujols/Fielder at 1B, Baker/Flaherty platoon at 3B, Wilson in rotation

Yeah, that's my biggest concern at this point. While still very inconsistent, the offense seems to be slowly catching up to Vitters' level. I'm not sure if the offense will ever be good enough to overcome terrible defense, though.

Two interesting notes from Bruce's blog:

It doesn't include the money still owed Pena True, but that may or may not be factored into next year's payroll.

Cot's has us at 70.6 million next year if you exclude the Ramirez buyout they're factoring in. That includes contracts for Soriano, Z, Dempster, Byrd, Marmol, and Marshall and the $2 million still owed to Silva. They also have Garza, Soto, Baker, Hill, DeWitt and Wells as arbitration eligible. If payroll holds steady, that gives us $64 million minus the arbitration guys and a potential Ramirez contract.