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dew1679666265

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Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    It's really not splitting hairs, though. Sure his BB/9 is up over last year, but the 3.13 he's posted this year is still below his career average of 3.17. Meanwhile he's striking out over 2 batters per inning more than his career average. If you want to just take his Rays days of walking batters, he's up over last year but still behind the 3.50 BB/9 in 2009. His K/9 is a full strikeout higher than his 2009 while significantly greater than that when compared to his 2008 and 2010 seasons. The higher WHIP is likely being influenced by a much higher BABIP than in his previous three years (.322 this year vs .270-.273 from 08-10). That could very easily be due to a horrid Cub defense vs great Rays defenses (which is entirely out of his control). The only thing about his numbers that is mediocre is his ERA and that's really the only reason he's not considered to be having a breakout season.
  2. dew1679666265
    He's only been mediocre if you look at ERA (4.26) alone. His K/9 is up quite a bit, his FIP and xFIP (2.93 and 2.86) are excellent and he's been worth 2.5 wins. I know you pointed out that he's been unlucky and he has, but the only thing mediocre about his numbers is his ERA even with the bad luck. you can also give some credit to the cubs' bad defense. Good point.
  3. dew1679666265
    Greinke has been very Garza-esque this year. His peripherals (11.99 K/9, 1.94 BB/9) and FIP/xFIP (2.98/2.14) have been pretty exceptional, but because of an abnormally high HR/9 (1.33 this year vs .94 career) and BABIP (.344 this year vs .309 career) his ERA is way higher than it should be. Statistically, this is more of the 2009 Greinke than we'd probably like. Marcum hasn't really come down to earth either. His ERA/FIP/xFIP all mirror last year much more than previous years, making him more than acceptable as the third starter behind Gallardo and Greinke.
  4. dew1679666265
    All the more reason to try to sell the Yankees on a Montero/Aramis swap - we get our third baseman of the future and the Yankees fill both third base (ARod) and DH (Aramis) through 2012, making them less likely to pursue Fielder.
  5. dew1679666265
    You may have just picked out the wrong post to quote, but I was talking about Darwin Barney, not Soto. On the topic of Soto, however, I pretty much agree with TT. There's not a very high offensive threshold for catchers to reach to be good and even with his dips in production, Geo is one of the better offensive catchers out there. He will have some nagging injury issues, but he's never missed extended time and, as TT said, that 1/3 of his games stat is misleading. The thing a lot of people are missing, however, is that if injuries are a concern for Soto it's not a reason to get rid of him, but instead it's a reason to have a better backup catcher than Koyie Hill. I'm not sure I'd give Soto a long term deal at this point, but I also am not the least bit anxious to trade him either.
  6. dew1679666265
    He's only been mediocre if you look at ERA (4.26) alone. His K/9 is up quite a bit, his FIP and xFIP (2.93 and 2.86) are excellent and he's been worth 2.5 wins. I know you pointed out that he's been unlucky and he has, but the only thing mediocre about his numbers is his ERA even with the bad luck. I'd want a ton for Garza, quite a bit more than we gave up for him.
  7. dew1679666265
    I was a little bit curious about what some other opinions were on Campbell. I've always liked him pretty well and I think he's done a really good job these two days. Like Treeman said, I'm in no hurry to run Brenly out the door as he's quite good too, but if we did have an opening at some point I think Len and Campbell would do well together.
  8. dew1679666265
    I'm in.
  9. dew1679666265
    Sounds like a solid plan to me. But I'm sure there's no way it happens like that. Most likely not. It'd be the best plan, though.
  10. dew1679666265
    It would make it far more disappointing that our Chris Carpenter didn't make it to the majors as a starter.
  11. dew1679666265
    He's primarily been a catcher, but there are significant questions about his defensive ability to stick there. If he doesn't, then he'd likely shift to either third (preferable) or first.
  12. dew1679666265
    I'd be very much against going after Sheets or Carpenter. Considering the low likelihood that either is highly productive, we'd probably be likely to get similar production out of McNutt or Wells than either of the former two. I could get behind Kuroda if he doesn't want more than one year or even a CJ Wilson if the bidding doesn't go too high for him.
  13. dew1679666265
    Because there's still development time that Montero needs to go through. He's very unlikely to come up, as a rookie, and post an .800+ OPS like Aramis is very likely to do this season and next. I'm not arguing that we wouldn't have a dropoff at third going from Aramis to Montero, but that it'd be less than the dropoff from Aramis to a Baker/DeWitt platoon or Ryan Flaherty. The benefit to the Cubs is that we get a cheap, young player to fill third base who can, potentially, be moderately productive at third base next year and moreso going forward while Aramis won't factor into our future plans.
  14. dew1679666265
    There's really no reason not to bring him back next year if we don't trade him now. Whether you pick up the option or try to re-sign him to a lesser money deal is irrelevant at this point, but the Cubs should definitely bring him back next year if they don't trade him now. The only possible reason not to would be if he came back after the break and was awful or if they were utterly convinced that he'd fall off a cliff next year, but the former is unlikely and the latter might still be a better option than anything else.
  15. dew1679666265
    I'd be much more interested in taking advantage of the saves Marmol has collected, deal him and move Marshall into the closer's role. Then, once he's built a higher value than he should have, deal him as well.
  16. dew1679666265
    Haha, Hanson's a pipedream but there's not a chance I'd do a deal with the Yankees for Aramis that didn't begin with Montero and go from there. That gives us a better third base option for next year, plus anything else we got. If they don't want to give that much, then we keep one of the best third basemen in the league.
  17. dew1679666265
    That would only make Aramis that much more valuable to them.
  18. dew1679666265
    Why wouldn't they want Aramis?
  19. dew1679666265
    In all honesty, I'd begin any Aramis talks with Montero. We have no need to trade Aramis and should negotiate as such, I think. If we trade Aramis at the deadline, we won't have a productive third baseman next year (most likely replacements are DeWitt/Baker or Flaherty) in a year where we could contend. From the Yankees' perspective, they'd receive a significant upgrade at the DH spot and have him for the rest of this year and all of next year rather than just as a rental for a few months. The Cubs have no incentive whatsoever to trade Aramis, so a team interested in him should give us that incentive. If the Yankees don't want to part with Montero, I'd be perfectly happy keeping Aramis through the deadline.
  20. dew1679666265
    Isn't Posada their primary DH? If so, Aramis would be a pretty big improvement over his .738 OPS.
  21. dew1679666265
    If they'll take 75% of his contract, we should be sending them prospects. For whatever it's worth, Fangraphs' dollar value for Soriano last year was $12.2 million - 75% of his remaining contract would be $13.5 mil per year. With a horde of money and few high quality prospects (I think), the Yankees might be willing to chip in more cash than they should.
  22. dew1679666265
    I'd be interested to see what we could get for Byrd so shortly after his return from being hit in the face. If we did trade Byrd, however, I'd definitely be strongly in favor of bringing Kosuke back next year.
  23. dew1679666265
    The Yankees are one of very few teams (maybe the only one) who could conceivably pay a rather large chunk of Soriano's contract. If they'd pay, say, 75% or more what kind of prospects would people on here want in return?
  24. dew1679666265
    Ah, I see. You probably don't have to be too concerned about trading Barney - as long as his offensive numbers plummet he probably won't be in much demand. If there were interest in him, I'd be opposed to trading him as well for scraps or a low A-baller. If somebody came along and offered something of real value or demanded he be included in a larger positive trade, however, I'd most definitely consider it. As TT said, I can't justify starting him if he continues to produce offensively what he has since April ended. He's too much of a liability, despite his defense.
  25. dew1679666265
    Kerry retiring doesn't really change things, I don't think. I doubt he was expected back anyway. From the sound of it, they're still considering veterans like Hasselbeck, Pennington and others so that they don't have to start Locker right away. Pennington has already said he's taking the year off and working as an analyst for Fox. http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/06/19/2272941/dolphins-free-agent-pennington.html Ah, hadn't heard that. I just lumped Pennington in there since most others had. My guess is that Hasselbeck will be the primary target if he doesn't return to Seattle.
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