UK1679666180

Like I said, I'd take Morgan over Bourn based on what they would likely receive.

You're probably right, but it comes down to supply and demand for me and what the market dictates, I don't see why the Cubs should spend market value on a player right now for him.

On something with a better value, Bourn even in this era is not likely to be worth a 4/5 yr 60+ mil deal, IMO. If he gets around 4 yrs at 10 mil per, I could see that working out for both parties but not at 15 mil per. I'd rather see that cash used long-term to lock up Rizzo, Samardzija, and/or Garza than possibly overspend on Bourn. I'd rather have Morgan at 1/4 than Bourn at 4/15, even before factoring the draft pick. I don't love using $/WAR conversions, but you think it's that unlikely that he'll be worth 10-12 WAR over 4 years? No, I think he'll avg 2-4 WAR during those 4 years, I think his 6+ was a fluke, I expect him to be around 4 this 1st year and gradually regress. I also don't think the market is in Bourn's favor right now with no need to get in a bidding war with the M's. But looking at the market, players with his skill set (contact hitters dependent on BABIP and walk rates) are undervalued right now compared to power hitters. If you expect him to start out around 4 and be between 2-4 throughout, even if he went, let's say, 4-2-2-2, he'd be at 10... which isn't that bad of an overpay, if at all. If he averages 3, he'd be at 12 (on a 4 year deal), in which case he'd definitely be worth $60M. Based on that yes, but that doesn't factor market trends or escalating contracts combined with likely regressing production. If lead-off hitters were at a premium and the market had several teams bidding for him, I could see it but not at this current time.

On something with a better value, Bourn even in this era is not likely to be worth a 4/5 yr 60+ mil deal, IMO. If he gets around 4 yrs at 10 mil per, I could see that working out for both parties but not at 15 mil per. I'd rather see that cash used long-term to lock up Rizzo, Samardzija, and/or Garza than possibly overspend on Bourn. I'd rather have Morgan at 1/4 than Bourn at 4/15, even before factoring the draft pick. I don't love using $/WAR conversions, but you think it's that unlikely that he'll be worth 10-12 WAR over 4 years? No, I think he'll avg 2-4 WAR during those 4 years, I think his 6+ was a fluke, I expect him to be around 4 this 1st year and gradually regress. I also don't think the market is in Bourn's favor right now with no need to get in a bidding war with the M's. But looking at the market, players with his skill set (contact hitters dependent on BABIP and walk rates) are undervalued right now compared to power hitters.

On something with a better value, Bourn even in this era is not likely to be worth a 4/5 yr 60+ mil deal, IMO. If he gets around 4 yrs at 10 mil per, I could see that working out for both parties but not at 15 mil per. I'd rather see that cash used long-term to lock up Rizzo, Samardzija, and/or Garza than possibly overspend on Bourn. I'd rather have Morgan at 1/4 than Bourn at 4/15, even before factoring the draft pick.

It is interesting to see where the game is headed in the near future with the changes in offensive production where the power hitter is becoming less of a supply and greater in demand and the contact hitter is becoming the larger supply whether or not that is becoming the greater bargain. I've gone back and forth with Bourn, but at this point I'd rather platoon Morgan/Sappelt or Jackson in CF and save that cash.

Matt Scott on day 3 would work for me. I like the Qb from Duke, Renfree. I like Brown at Illinois St and Sorensen at Southern Utah better than both. I would rank them in order: Sorensen Brown Scott Renfree

(off-topic) With Chip Kelly and his spread offense possibly coming to the NFL, I find so oddly interesting whether or not that couyld work, I loved the June Jones run and shoot, although it never lasted. The NFL is going to more of a spread style regardless but Kelly's is even more dramatic. I forget which bowl game I was watching but there 3 HBs in the backfield with the QB in the middle and I found that fascinating as well.

Lovie isn't Dusty Baker. I don't see him being averse to such a thing. He did come around on the need for throwing the ball, even if he was incapable of finding somebody to run a system. Lovie is pretty old school, he talked about coming off the bus running, standard coach speak, etc. I'm not sure how much analysis will factor with the Bills as far as roster composition or whether or not it will factor in play calling etc. I just wonder if Lovie will have a greater role with the draft and FA rather compared to chicago, which he had a larger role under Angelo.

I love what McCoy did with Denver last year with Tebow, that's the greatest example of taking what has been given to you and maximizing what you have. Give me McCoy at HC and Hazell as OC and I'd be content. I don't know enough about Clements, his bio is somewhat extensive having been a QB coach for the majority of it with 3 years of C experience.

This will be interesting when they hire Lovie as their next coach... http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-coverage/2013/01/russ-brandon-says-bills-will-commit-to-new-age-analytics.html

It's worth looking into, we'll never know whether or not the Cubs were interested in Liriano or not but at the time Villanueva was signed, Jackson wasn't signed. They knew they were close with Jackson but the only thing I can see is them valuing Villanueva more b/c of his ability to spot-start and come out of the pen as a better fit than Liriano who has started more. With that said, the numerous questions about injuries with the rotation and the likely greater production/value Liriano would bring, I would have rather seen them sign him to that contact and worry about roster composition at a later date than possibly settle for a "better" fit.

Liriano in the first half of 2011 was exactly what we should expect Liriano to be in the first half of 2012 and the twins got absolute garbage from the Sox for him. Liriano is past the point even were his name has any value. That's b/c Liriano hasn't been able to get his stuff to translate into results, similar to when the Yankees had Burnett and there were wondering if the Cubs and Yanks would unload two bad contracts between Zambrano and Burnett, each had bad deals till the end of those contracts. Burnett went to the NL, improved his control whether he pitched to contact a little more is up for debate but he improved his stock greatly from a year ago. I'd be curious to see what the reaction was when Pitt acquired him. If Liriano can maintain his stuff and get his ERA to be near his FIP, possibly pitch to cpntact more as well as going from the AL to the NL, I think we will see improvement from him. I think we'll see Liriano have a much higher WAR than Villanueva during the durations of theses contracts. Also, if he shows any type of consistency or flashes like he had '10, with that cheap contract, he'll have more value than Villanueva. I would be willing to bet that Liriano has a lower FIP and a higher WAR two years from now.

I would prefer it over Villanueva but I like the Feldman deal more than the Liriano deal. Same here. I don't like Villanueva at all and think Liriano has a higher upside. The difference of course being that Villanueva was apparently willing to accept being a swingman and/or bullpen arm. Unless you like Liriano better than Feldman or Baker, there wasn't a guaranteed rotation slot to offer him. Villanueva is a swingman guy b/c he can't last 180IP without falling off the map, Baker won't be ready for the start and who knows with Garza. Even if they did run into a situation later on this Summer with too many starters for rotation spots, a productive Liriano has more trade value than a productive Villanueva.

I would prefer it over Villanueva but I like the Feldman deal more than the Liriano deal. Pitt. made a similar signing with Burnett last year and it worked out great for them as far as pitchers with better stuff and getting that finally translate. I think it was a very good move for the Bucs and one I would've liked to have seen the Cubs do.

So amidst all the legitimate celebration, the question has to be asked: Why didn't we make any of these signings last offseason? I'm starting to think they really were trying to tank year 1 for draft picks. Either that, or the Dominican facility came from payroll. They weren't going to commit and overspend long-term contracts on an organization that they did not have a full understanding of. We all know they're detailed oriented and regardless of how preparation much and resources they had on the Cubs prior to Nov. 2011, they couldn't make enough of an educated guess on the organization to make long-term commitments that could be more than what the player was likely worth. I'm sure they values on Fielder, Darvish, Cespedes, etc. but were not willing to match. Obviously, they have a better feel and are more willing to go beyond the same limitations of last year and have done so. We'll see if they do so with Bourn, I'm not a proponent of it unless Boras sees the market as dead since Philly traded for Revere and the Cubs are the only primary suitor for a larger market and goes for a 1 year deal for 10-14 mil and waits for next year. I guess it would depend on the length of the deal for Bourn, I don't want them paying 15+ mil (assuming pro-rated contract) for a 35-36yo, with avg. offensive skills with the bat and diminishing skills with his legs and glove. He's worth every penny for what he'll get in the short-term but extend that to his mid-30s and it becomes the unknown.

Count me in as a fan of Andersen, the more I learned he has a dynamic personality that will play well in the state of WI, recruited well nationally at a school not designed to recruit well beyond the mountains and WC. If they had won the WAC again, he raises his value beyond schools like WI and likely into the Urban Meyer range when he was at Utah. Utah was Meyer's second successful HC gig and he was incredibly successful every year (17-6; 22-2). I don't want to bury GA nor promote Meyer but he was not 1 more year at Utah St from being Urban Meyer circa 2002. Urban Meyer range might be a stretch, but 2 more good years of 9+ wins - which he has set up the team to do - and he could be viewed like a Chris Petersen at Boise State or Gary Patterson at TCU (before those schools joined major conferences) Agree. If we just grant him two more incredibly successful seasons, he could be a hot name. He already is/was, though. He was rumored but declined opportunities to interview at Cal, Kentucky, Colorado, and Purdue. Tennessee should've been involved but settled rather quickly. I know he wasn't as big of an name as Meyer was going from Utah to UF, Andersen didn't have the same type of success both in immediate or longer-term results.

They're talented and play to their strengths and Groce has them playing to their full potential. They're going to do well as as most perimeter teams do, living by the jump shot. Fortunately, they're extremely gifted in that area and it should carry them far.

Count me in as a fan of Andersen, the more I learned he has a dynamic personality that will play well in the state of WI, recruited well nationally at a school not designed to recruit well beyond the mountains and WC. If they had won the WAC again, he raises his value beyond schools like WI and likely into the Urban Meyer range when he was at Utah.

Only if we get in a shootout or are trailing big, neither of which are likely to happen. I'm going to go with 205 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He needs to average 185 in each of these last two games to reach 3,000 yards on the season. Should be able to do that barring injury. Forte needs to average 49 rush yards in each game to reach 1,000. It's going to be weird to have a 3,000 yards passer, 1,000 yards rusher, and a 1,500 yards receiver in a single season on the same team. Yet they're like in the bottom 5 as an offense in the league. In today's league, that 3000 passing yards isn't impressive. As far as Back-up QBs and allocation... Back-up QBs aren't put on teams to win games, they're there not to sink the ship of teams capable of going deep in the playoffs. The problem with the Bears is that they're not good enough to be a serious contender with Cutler, let alone without him. SF is the exception to the norm and even that consists of a lowered salaried draft pick compared to an open market FA QB. Each of the teams that are better than the Bears (except SF, I don't consider Minn better but AP cancels that equation anyways) would be screwed if their QBs go down. You don't protect your greatest asset by bringing in a lesser replacement. Honestly, Aaron Rodgers couldn't guide this current roster to the sB! let alone Cutler and taking away from that ability to improve the pieces around Cutler is poor roster composition.

I agree completely.

The Bears have had horrible drafts/lack of player development. They have had relatively decent success in trades and FA but can't compliment it with the final and most vital piece of the puzzle. Too early to judge but early indicators are not positive for Emery's 1st draft. His FA crop wasn't successful either both Bush and Campbell were disappointments. Put me in the McCoy camp, don't know enough about O'Brien. Don't want Kelly. Wonder if Cowher joined would he/they go after a DC that wants a 3-4 scheme? Not sold on Gruden, as much pub as he gets for being a QB guru, there's not a great background there as far as developing.

I just saw his presser a few minutes ago; you could SEE the desire to call Hester the dumbest football player he's ever played with, and that he ran the wrong route like he does for 95% of the routes he runs. I was impressed he could hold it in. Also, Brandon Marshall looked like he was going to lose his [expletive]. That was actually unsettling. Also, Matt Forte is hot [expletive] garbage, and I don't care if Michael Bush had to put on a kevlar vest; if he was active, he should have gotten the ball on 2nd and Goal. For Forte to not be able to gain 1 yard over 2 plays is a damned joke. Hester did the right thing as the play had broken down once Cutler did that pump fake, Hester was going to an open area as the DB was in front of Hester and the safeties were about 5 yards behind him. I don't like defending him as I think he needs to be cut since he can't play WR and isn't a returner anymore. This offense is a joke, They have no idea what the middle of the field looks like to any receiver. Davis, Speath, Hester, Bennett are garbage in the middle but at least try and keep them honest. Marshall, Forte, and Allen are the only ones that caught passes. I'm glad Brown was out there and looked good, hugely disappointing Carimi can't do a damn thing. Had a year to rehab and does nothing to improve his weaker upper body strength? Conte and especially Moore looked terrible. Forte isn't the same runner, doesn't want to hit the hole and can't break any tackles. Cutler can't take the next step. Brown looked good? All the sacks came when he flat out missed Matthews stunting right across his face. He got benched late in the game for Edwin Williams. Carimi got benched at RG, meaning the Bears played 4 different OGs today. Conte wasn't terrible. Rodgers is a master at looking off the safety before going where he wants with the ball. Forte has never been a "hit the hole, run over people" type of guy. He's a dancer, who waits for his spot, cuts and then goes. I agree somewhat that Cutler hasn't taken the next step, but can't really blame him. He threw for 3600 yards without Marshall at WR. He has a top 5 WR in the league and still nobody else can do anything. That's not on him unless he's blatantly ignoring them, which we know is not the case. Tice is terrible. He's making me long for Martz back. That stunt he ran completely killed Cutler but I thought overall he did a good job, especially on when he was pulling on the 1st couple of drives. Conte left too many WRs open in the middle not as many as Moore but pretty bad. Cutler will never take that next step if he can't throw to a spot. Marshall is the closest he can do that with but you see Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning throw to a spot before the WR makes a break and Cutler doesn't do that. Forte had the ability to get thru the 2nd line of defenders, he isn't doing that.

Yes and yes.

He said it was his fault in the sense that he said "the ball came out of my hands, it's my responsibility". Reading between the lines and watching his answer live, it was pretty fricking clear that he didn't want to put Hester on blast. I just read the reports on Twitter. Hester was asked and he said, "I ran the route I was supposed to run". It was reported that Cutler said, "I can't make that throw against a good team" I just saw his presser a few minutes ago; you could SEE the desire to call Hester the dumbest football player he's ever played with, and that he ran the wrong route like he does for 95% of the routes he runs. I was impressed he could hold it in. Also, Brandon Marshall looked like he was going to lose his [expletive]. That was actually unsettling. Also, Matt Forte is hot [expletive] garbage, and I don't care if Michael Bush had to put on a kevlar vest; if he was active, he should have gotten the ball on 2nd and Goal. For Forte to not be able to gain 1 yard over 2 plays is a damned joke. Hester did the right thing as the play had broken down once Cutler did that pump fake, Hester was going to an open area as the DB was in front of Hester and the safeties were about 5 yards behind him. I don't like defending him as I think he needs to be cut since he can't play WR and isn't a returner anymore. This offense is a joke, They have no idea what the middle of the field looks like to any receiver. Davis, Speath, Hester, Bennett are garbage in the middle but at least try and keep them honest. Marshall, Forte, and Allen are the only ones that caught passes. I'm glad Brown was out there and looked good, hugely disappointing Carimi can't do a damn thing. Had a year to rehab and does nothing to improve his weaker upper body strength? Conte and especially Moore looked terrible. Forte isn't the same runner, doesn't want to hit the hole and can't break any tackles. Cutler can't take the next step.