Jason Ross

He's been really rough against RHP. Yeah.

Someone, quick check the books. What happens when you hit the ball over the fence?

Bizzaro-world where the Cubs can't hit but all of a sudden give up 3 runs or less.

Yeah, sadly the Rockies are gonna Rockies.

This whole thing is a mess. The Cubs should be absolutely livid. This wasn't some weather phenomenon that popped up last night. I'm usually pretty good at finding the logic, but this entire thing has been a trainwreck and could have been solved five days ago.

In the nicest possible way, this has been explained to you a few times. One of those people who explained it to you was me, days ago. The answer is that every year is different. Every ball park is different. This is why we have wRC+. The "+" signifies that. We neutralize the data; steroid-era hitters and dead-ball era hitters would be impossible to compare without context and the "+" is the context. Without getting into the weeds of it all it just puts everyone on an even playing field and adjusts for all the things a hitter isn't in control of (run scoring environment, pitching, the ball, etc). It's why Dawson could be the 41st best hitter in 1987 even though he hit a bunch of home runs. And why Pete is a much better hitter in 2026 than Dawson was in 1987 even if the raw data makes it seem close. And this is exactly why I keep saying you don't really understand WAR. If you did, this would be foundational to you: WAR is designed to do this at it's core. And if you don't know that (and there's no shame in not knowing; learning is a cool thing! But we can't learn until we accept what we don't know, either), which it appears you don't, then of course it's confusing. But that isn't a flaw within WAR, either. And why others are frustrated with the round-and-round here; you're blaming WAR for things WAR isn't at fault for. Lastly, on the defense, I have no idea what you are talking about, however when you say they were "near neutral" value. Dawson's fielding value was a -7.7. This means he was worth, roughly -8 runs for his defense. Part of this is his positional adjustment; RF isn't valuable. But Pete Crow-Armstrong has been worth 23.7 FV, or roughly,. 24 runs over the course of a season. We generally accept that 10 runs = 1 win. Napkin math tells you right there where almost 3+ wins of his fWAR comes from. That's a massive difference in value. Sadly we don't have the defensive tools to go back and exactly explain how good/bad Dawson was. We have far more data-driven models because of all the cool tech we have. But based on the numbers we have, Dawson wasn't grading out as a plus right fielder. Based on Total Zone rating, which is about as advanced as we can get for the era, Dawson was the 12th best RF'er in baseball. Pete Crow-Armstrong is above and beyond the best center fielder this year. To the point he's closer to being 2x the second best at his position than he is the 3rd best defender at his position.

The biggest issue people have is that you really haven't demonstrated a knowledge or understanding of what WAR does. The basis of your argument can boiled down to "It can't be true because it doesn't feel right to me". Do you have a statistical issue with the inputs? Is there a flaw in wRC+ you'd like to explain? Do you have articles and research done by others to support your opinion? I've seen nothing of the sort. These kinds of things would help your case significantly. This isn't a witch hunt. Nor is it McCarthyism. Lest us not forget; the board didn't seek out the WAR-non believer, you came in to argue WAR and then have been defensive when people have pressed you on it. That's not usually the sign of someone who has anything to support their point of view. And usually, it's the sign of someone who is a troll; just looking to get a rise out of people. It's hard to blame anyone for that at this point. On the flip side, plenty of people here have brought real data to explain WAR to you and why it would give the massive edge to Pete, but you've seemingly ignored it. Putting your head into the sand isn't a defensive mechanism that many will find admirable. Which leads us to here; the decrying of a witch hunt because everyone disagrees with you, largely because you refuse to bring anything tangible to the table.

Start well, got a little iffy and then he shut the door. Overall, it's another fairly encouraging Webb performance. Door is wide open for him to get back to being somewhat trustworthy by proxy of how unstable the pen is overall.

Dax Fulton is listed on their active roster and has yet to make a start in his MLB career. I'd assume he'd be available but I'm not in tune with the Marlins more than peeking at their active roster.

Very well could be. Conforto is the DH, so the DH cannot enter as a fielder. If you do, you lose the DH. Also, remember: Taylor banged into the wall a few days ago. He could be banged up.

Cade is super bad against RHH. Bregman will possibly get a shot this inning if Conforto comes up.

Everyone has good runs and bad runs. But xBA and xwOBA don't get that thrown off by 20% of the season, either. Those numbers are trying to tell us something. Same with his BB% and K%. If those first bit was doing so much lifting, his wRC+ would be the same as would his wOBA. They're not. So the answer is the xData is trying to say "hey man, he's probably fine"

Good job, Gausman.

That's hilarious. Sounds like they need to show them what Savant is.

They must pay literally no attention. He's thrown 100mph+ 18 times this year. Only Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez have thrown more 100mph+ this year for the Marlins. In fact, he has the highest% of his fastballs all year to be over 100mph on the team.

I think there's a next to zero chance it gets move to Monday. MLB is set to have a four game slate of playoffs on Tuesday and I'd imagine the Cubs would throw an absolute, utter, bitch fit the second it was considered. The Nor'Easter looks to be hitting Saturday evening. I think they'll bump up Saturday to an early start. Which will suck with a double header, but the MLB has horsefeathered themselves by refusing to move the stupid game.

Shota has been better with rest. He'd be going on Saturday on three days rest, which is short rest, not even the four-days rest that he's struggled more on. He's also terrible against the lineup the third time through. I would not expect more than three innings out of him. Anything more and you're running a very, very difficult gambit. I'd plan for six outs and if he's cruising give him a max of nine, save Rea and Civale and hope those can eat a good chunk of your day beyond. But what the Cubs can do before that is wrap up homefield with winning. Don't leave it to Saturday to begin with.

Nico Hoerner 2025: 6.0 BB%, 7.6 K%, .097 ISO, .313 BABIP, .292 xBA, .297 BA, .324 wOBA. .322 xwOBA Nico Hoerner 2026 6.4% BB%, 8.5 K%, .090 ISO, .276 BABIP, .298 xBA, .264 BA, .299 wOBA, .322 xwOBA

A bullpen day for a pitcher isn't 3-4 innings. It's like 4 hitters. Eury Perez did a bullpen day last night for the Marlins. He didn't pitch most of a start. If the Cubs need the win it sounded like an "all hands" situation where maybe he gets 6 outs. Little more than a maintenance/side session/bullpen but less than a piggyback.

Per Rogers: Shota will likely throw. Did not say start, however.

I would think that there's probably added caution when it comes to someone like Justin Steele in less-than-ideal circumstances. Steele has already had a set back this year while throwing. How much additional caution? Probably impossible to tell and I certainly couldn't tell you. But I can understand the idea that maybe having Steele, a guy who's clearly not 100% throwing in rough conditions might not be the best idea regardless of the standings. I'm probably against seeing Steele at this point. He didn't look fully back in Iowa yet and when you take the weirdness of this weekend into account...might just be best to appreciate his comeback attempt for what it is and see where we go.

Steele *may* get a look in game-162, but there probably isn't going to be situation where he's much better. His velocity is sitting around 90mph out of the pen. He's gotten whiffs in Iowa but it's Triple-A hitters. The organization has gotten plenty a-look at him in Iowa and it hasn't been overly encouraging (he'd have been called up well before had it been). I would expect if either makes a playoff roster that they are a "break glass in case of emergency". It's possible someone like Hollowel is added instead of both.

I took my wife to Wrigley for her first time this year. She watches the Cubs because I do, but she's not a baseball-person. She did, however, want to get some Cubs gear. Thank horsefeathers her favorite number is 4, though, as she got some PCA gear (mostly due to his number). There's a world where he favorite number is 30 (Cabrera) 24 (Theilbar) and she's wearing a jersey a few years down road we have some explaining to do.

Gausman now set up to start Game 1 of the playoffs, as well.

Yeah, it was really ugly. And I'll blame him specifically for that. That's a little thing you should have rounded out by now. He has to be better there. Had the wife not been asleep at that moment, I would have yelled at my screen.