Jason Ross

Just saying. https://northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/chicago-cubs/how-ian-happs-small-changes-can-make-a-world-of-differences-r2695/

Walking PCA should be a "straight to Double A" action for this pitcher. The Angles are so weird.

Just saying that maybe someone who throws this few strikes and had a 7.00 ERA in his first 14 innings...like maybe let him pitch in the minors a few times.

No one has ever made hitting 95mph on the gun look nerdier than this guy.

AZ Phil has some whopper takes, but this one makes things make a bit of sense if it's correct.

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Ian Happ has been a much-maligned player over the course of his tenure with the Cubs. I've personally written about him a few times, including once this offseason, and once last fall. Happ doesn't deserve a lot of the animosity thrown his way; he's a really good baseball player. Even on Opening Day, a quick browsing of reddit had me finding posts complaining about him hitting in the 3-hole. The Cubs lost two of three over the weekend to the Washington Nationals. Between the disappointing results and the Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner extensions, Happ's big weekend kind of flew under the radar. The Cubs' left fielder hit two home runs, had three hits overall, and was one of the standouts offensively. In fact, he's probably owed a home run, as a flyout that he smashed in Thursday's Opening Day contest would have flown an estimated 113 feet farther had the wind not intervened. That was the largest weather-related difference tracked in the Statcast Era. Underlying his first weekend were some encouraging signs for the 31-year old, who will turn 32 later this summer. The age matters here. As we've gotten more and more data publicly available to us through Statcast and Baseball Savant, one thing has become clear: 32 is roughly the age when we begin to see a league wide trend of bat speed decline. This decline is then more pronounced after. Bat speed is an indicator of power and exit velocity, so dropping bat speed isn't particularly good. Despite standing right on that dreaded doorstep, Happ has seen a noticeable increase in bat speed so far in 2026, averaging 74.6 mph on his swings, up from 71.4mph last year. Not only is it up, but his current numbers would mark a career-best bat speed. Obviously, it's very early, but this is an encouraging sign. Diving deeper, there appear to be some small changes in how Happ has set up at the plate, particularly from the right side. While he's a little deeper in the box both left-handed and right-handed, the difference is more pronounced from his right-handed stance. Another change with his swing against left-handed pitching? He's a bit more open. The first image is of his 2025 data, while the second is from his 2026 so far. Any tweaks against lefties would be welcome for a hitter who hasn't been particularly great against them for the last few years. From 2023 through 2025 he's got a 102 wRC+ against southpaws. Compare this to his 125 wRC+ against righties, and you can begin to see the difference. A 102 isn't horrible, but it also isn't anywhere near as good as Happ has been against righties. Change is required, and it seems as though there may be a change that the outfielder has worked on. To see this change in practice, look below at that fly ball that he should have hit for a home run, wind not withstanding. Cionel Perez, a left-handed reliever with the Nationals, gets a 96-mph fastball in on the hands of Happ in the upper third of the zone. Happ is able to clear his front side and get his barrel to it. He can't control the wind, but because he's just a little more open, and a little off the plate, he's found the ability to get to this pitch and hit it with authority. Most days that lands on the street, not in a glove. Why does this matter? Traditionally, Happ doesn't do much damage on that pitch. Up-and-in fastballs are anything but his strength. Last season, he had essentially no success in this area of the strike zone against lefties. Below is this pitch from Thursday, superimposed onto a contour chart from 2025 of all Happ's batted balls with an exit velocity of 90+ MPH against lefties. Plainly, this is imperfect; the game feed Savant provides is not height-adjusted to the hitter, as the 2025 data is (you can see how much smaller the strike zone is in the image against Perez). Because of this, I suspect that this pitch is truly higher than it looks here, but even as displayed, it's outside Happ's "power zone" against lefties from last year. When we add in that likely adjustment, it's pretty apparent that this is something he didn't do last year. I can't say for certain that Happ was able to get to this pitch because he's a little farther back, a little farther off the plate, and a little more open, but all of these things would allow him to better get to that pitch and clear his front side. Add in the increase in bat speed, and the small tweaks would appear to give Happ a bit of a better platform to hit the ball with authority against whatever-sided arm he's facing. Happ has always been impressively consistent year-to-year. While he may fluctuate and go hot-and-cold within it, you always know what you're getting with him by the end; it's one of his best qualities. If Happ's indeed swinging a bit harder and his subtle adjustments are going to help him against lefties, than perhaps he won't be as predictable in 2026—not in a bad way, but in a good one. There's a long season to go, but this may very well be the best version of the switch-hitter the Cubs have ever seen. What do you think of these subtle changes? Do you think Happ can begin to produce better against LHP? View full article

Owners are cheap and would love to save any money they can (I.E. see how they handled the MiLB side of things in 2020). But I also don't think this is just an owner cost cutting move. Players out of HS can earn NIL money now and if you can go to college and get paid, it's a win for these kids in many ways. UK SS Tyler Bell passed up second round money from the Rays to go play in the SEC. He certainly got NIL money and will likely be a 1st round pick meaning he'll double dip.

I don't think they were "desperate" so much as Cabrera does a bunch of what the Cubs like and the swap made sense. We have OF'ers who are young and we need some SP. The Marlins clearly liked Caissie dating back to last year (which I get, I like Caissie too). I think we'll all be fine with the trade when it's all said and done. Edwin Cabrera is fun. Guys who throw 99mph with a 94 mph changeup don't grow on trees.

I love Owen Caissie more than anyone, but "hell of a price tag" was a borderline top-50 prospect, let's pump the brakes, man. Owen Caissie has plenty of swing and miss in his game. And we should know better than to flip out about prospects that get traded and their first month of action. Cabrera is a bit of a risk, but was in a bad pitching org for much of his career. The Marlins are on the right track there right now, and they started to really figure it out last year (also coincides with his best run). So how about we take a deep breath right now. Maybe Caissie is a star and Cabrera sucks. Or maybe Caissie runs a 30% K rate and doesn't figure it out and Cabrera turns into a solid SP. We have no idea. Hot take statements can make you look real silly in the count of a few weeks when we're talking the first weekend and when one of them hasn't thrown a pitch yet.

This is all more fun than the striking out and the weak contact.

Make it three, Pete. Make. It. Three.

Happ sucks.

I've been told Bregman couldn't possibly be good since the Cubs aren't cheating.

Shota has 13 swings and misses and his fastball velo is sitting at 92.3mph on the day, mirroring his 92.5mph in Spring Training. He gave up a home run, but I'm encouraged by the stuff and misses. Those are really good signs.

To be fair to Shota, that pitch (labeled here as 4) is well off the plate.

Sigh. Some weak contact and then Weimer hit a HR on a pitch well below the zone.

That was a good sequence from Shota. And he was hitting 93mph. That's a big deal.

Right, but Bellinger is probably a good example of this. Bellinger over his last three seasons has a 125 wRC+ compared to Pete Alonso's 128 wRC+. I'm using the last three because Bellinger was really bad four years ago, but it also eliminates a 141 wRC+ season from Alonso which increases his wRC+ to 131. Regardless, in those three years, the HR difference is stark: 78 for Bellinger and 118 for Alonso. Bellinger is far more of a defensive asset than Alonso. ZiPS also sees this, giving Alonso a healthy 138 to 121 wRC+ projection in his favor despite their fWAR being very close on that projection. And yet, the difference in AAV between Bellinger (27m per year) and Alonso (31m) is just $4m. If we grade them on similar regression models, the .5 slip each year based on their most recent ZiPS projection for 2026: Pete: 3.8, 3.3, 2.7, 2.2, 1.5 = 13.5 over 5 years = 2.7 fWAR average Cody: 4, 3.5, 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5 = 16 over 6 years = 2,6 fWAR average These two contracts are very close. Cody got an extra year, but he's a few years younger. However, when we look at the ask of each, Alonso is being asked to average a little more per year, but the difference in AAV is $4m. It's not a massive change. And on total value, it's a difference under $10m. If we were seeing some league wide trend that players who gain value more through their bats, I think these contracts would not be so similar. Bichette probably does not belong in this conversation, however. His contract is an opt-out heavy deal that very likely will be a one or two year deal with the goal to re-hit free agency. We should probably bin that one in a different discussion. Overall, I think we may see slight biases towards home runs and offense, but I don't think there's some league wide trend where similarly valued players are being given significantly larger contracts. A few million AAV might be noticeable here or there, but even at $4m you're talking like the difference between a Hoby Milner.

We like that.

Yeah, I'd really hate his guts if he was a Brewer.

Ian Happ sucks.

Damn. Bregman smoked that.

Dansby is the mansby.

I'm also just a fan of his story. He's been through the absolute ringer injury wise, and he's kept trucking at the toughest position to play in the sport, and one of the toughest in all sports.