How Ian Happ's Small Changes Can Make a World of Differences

Ian Happ has been a much-maligned player over the course of his tenure with the Cubs. I've personally written about him a few times, including once this offseason, and once last fall. Happ doesn't deserve a lot of the animosity thrown his way; he's a really good baseball player. Even on Opening Day, a quick browsing of reddit had me finding posts complaining about him hitting in the 3-hole. 

The Cubs lost two of three over the weekend to the Washington Nationals. Between the disappointing results and the Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner extensions, Happ's big weekend kind of flew under the radar. The Cubs' left fielder hit two home runs, had three hits overall, and was one of the standouts offensively. In fact, he's probably owed a home run, as a flyout that he smashed in Thursday's Opening Day contest would have flown an estimated 113 feet farther had the wind not intervened. That was the largest weather-related difference tracked in the Statcast Era. 

Underlying his first weekend were some encouraging signs for the 31-year old, who will turn 32 later this summer. The age matters here. As we've gotten more and more data publicly available to us through Statcast and Baseball Savant, one thing has become clear: 32 is roughly the age when we begin to see a league wide trend of bat speed decline. This decline is then more pronounced after. Bat speed is an indicator of power and exit velocity, so dropping bat speed isn't particularly good.

Despite standing right on that dreaded doorstep, Happ has seen a noticeable increase in bat speed so far in 2026, averaging 74.6 mph on his swings, up from 71.4mph last year. Not only is it up, but his current numbers would mark a career-best bat speed. Obviously, it's very early, but this is an encouraging sign. 

Diving deeper, there appear to be some small changes in how Happ has set up at the plate, particularly from the right side. While he's a little deeper in the box both left-handed and right-handed, the difference is more pronounced from his right-handed stance. Another change with his swing against left-handed pitching? He's a bit more open. The first image is of his 2025 data, while the second is from his 2026 so far.

Any tweaks against lefties would be welcome for a hitter who hasn't been particularly great against them for the last few years. From 2023 through 2025 he's got a 102 wRC+ against southpaws. Compare this to his 125 wRC+ against righties, and you can begin to see the difference. A 102 isn't horrible, but it also isn't anywhere near as good as Happ has been against righties. Change is required, and it seems as though there may be a change that the outfielder has worked on.

To see this change in practice, look below at that fly ball that he should have hit for a home run, wind not withstanding. Cionel Perez, a left-handed reliever with the Nationals, gets a 96-mph fastball in on the hands of Happ in the upper third of the zone. Happ is able to clear his front side and get his barrel to it. He can't control the wind, but because he's just a little more open, and a little off the plate, he's found the ability to get to this pitch and hit it with authority. Most days that lands on the street, not in a glove.

Why does this matter? Traditionally, Happ doesn't do much damage on that pitch. Up-and-in fastballs are anything but his strength. Last season, he had essentially no success in this area of the strike zone against lefties. Below is this pitch from Thursday, superimposed onto a contour chart from 2025 of all Happ's batted balls with an exit velocity of 90+ MPH against lefties.

Plainly, this is imperfect; the game feed Savant provides is not height-adjusted to the hitter, as the 2025 data is (you can see how much smaller the strike zone is in the image against Perez). Because of this, I suspect that this pitch is truly higher than it looks here, but even as displayed, it's outside Happ's "power zone" against lefties from last year. When we add in that likely adjustment, it's pretty apparent that this is something he didn't do last year.

I can't say for certain that Happ was able to get to this pitch because he's a little farther back, a little farther off the plate, and a little more open, but all of these things would allow him to better get to that pitch and clear his front side. Add in the increase in bat speed, and the small tweaks would appear to give Happ a bit of a better platform to hit the ball with authority against whatever-sided arm he's facing. 

Happ has always been impressively consistent year-to-year. While he may fluctuate and go hot-and-cold within it, you always know what you're getting with him by the end; it's one of his best qualities. If Happ's indeed swinging a bit harder and his subtle adjustments are going to help him against lefties, than perhaps he won't be as predictable in 2026—not in a bad way, but in a good one. There's a long season to go, but this may very well be the best version of the switch-hitter the Cubs have ever seen.

What do you think of these subtle changes? Do you think Happ can begin to produce better against LHP?