Jason Ross

The Cubs offense has been brutal for a month. We had two runners in scoring position and Owen Caissie's spot is only likely to get one more PA. You take the guy with a 122 wRC+ against LHP on the season there instead of hoping that Caissie's spot comes up in an even bigger space later. Two runs puts the game at 5-1.

Only 9 1b have hit LHP better than Turner on the year.

To be fair, Turner's bat speed is up 5mph since April, his launch angle is way better, and his 122 wRC+ against LHP is top-10 for 1b. It's fun to see Caissie right now, but Turner was the right choice.

So that Caissie guy looks legit (I should have had a little more faith in his initial call after being such a Caissie stan for years)

The issue with Tucker is far less the bat speed but the LA.

Yes it's slightly down. However, it doesn't seem like it's necessarily out of the norm? He was around the same bat speed come the end of last year, too in July. August it's around 1mph lower than even that which is his slowest speed. The graphs make it seem like a sharp decline, but I'm not sure it's as sharp as it seems.

This is much the way the Colorado Rockies are run. They are run on vibes and emotional attachments to players. They are the least analytical of any organization. We can see this very clearly in how they are poorly developing their former top-10 prospect in Chase Dollander. Dollander has been terrible, and I know your initial reaction is going to be "Well it's Coors". No, it's because they've messed with his pitch mix to a degree that it runs on negligence and ignorant of advanced metrics and pitches. He's throwing sinkers to LHH (a big no-no for RHP). He has relied on a loopy breaking ball too often instead of adding velocity. This is basic pitch design in modern 2025 baseball. You want an emotional attachment to players? Heading into the deadline in 2022, the Rockies, a team with no shot at the playoffs, had a 37 year old closer in Daniel Bard having a career year. He was a free agent at years end. Easiest sell decision of all time. Did they trade him? Nope! The Rockies resigned him to a two year contract. The Rockies finished with 68 wins this season. Go figure that didn't work out. Bard was bad and ended up retiring, and haven't even sniffed the playoffs since. "Maybe that's a one year thing" you say! Well, how about Jon Gray? The Rockies in 2021 (yes, just the year prior to Bard) enter the deadline a bad team and with Jon Gray on his last year of his contract. Gray is having a good year, he'll be in demand. The Rockies should trade Gray, get something for him. Nope, the Rockies pass, instead they keep him. "Well, they'll just offer him a QO, he won't accept and they'll get a draft pick". Rockies declined offering a QO, and they got nothing. Zip. Zilch. They got nothing. They finished with 74 wins. They learned nothing from this as they absolutely boned the Bard decision the following year. You may correctly point out that the Rockies are under new management currently, but remember, this is the same management running Dollander into the ground, and the guy they hired was the assistant GM under the previous one. There has been no analytical shift and the Rockies remain one of the worst orgs in sports. At one point they had spent half a billion in FA and got negative fWAR out of players like Geradlo Perra and other overspends. I for one would rather not run on vibes and emotions. None of this is to suggest Hoyers approach is perfect, I think the Cubs bungled the deadline in many ways, for example. However, the conclusion should not be "less analytics". The last few weeks have been a bummer, but the Cubs currently have a 96.9% chance to make the playoffs. Sounds a lot better than the Rockies' vibes and their 0.0% at making the post-season, no?

Doesn't sound like a full shut down. Zumach has mentioned that the Cubs were using load management and trade smokescreen to deflate his innings. I bet we'll see him for a bit, and that it sounds like there is some behind the scenes stuff happening. But yeah, not an MLB option right now.

Hey! Cole Mathis is alive.

I think what Kyle Stowars is doing in Miami this year feels like a really good outcome for Owen Caissie. He is sitting at a 147 wRC+, and has been worth 3.8 fWAR. He has probably added more offensive base running value than I expect Caissie to add, but has done most of his damage against RHP. I think expecting that outcome feels rich, and I think we should expect less than that, but it also feels possible.

I think this is faulty logic. We like to believe that placing a random player into the lineup will suddenly "spark plug" the offense, but it's a poor gamble. Who's more likely to hit well tonight? Kyle Tucker, one of the best hitters in baseball over the course of half a decade? Ian Happ, the 12th best OF'er in baseball since 2022? Seiya Suzuki, who's posted a career 128 wRC+? Pete Crow-Armstrong, who's been one of the best players all season in baseball? Or the rookie who's never taken a single PA in his MLB career? We get so caught up in slumps that we forget that even when a player isn't going so well, that many times it suggests that the slump is closer to ending than continuing. None of these players are broken forever, and any night is a chance for them to just get to normal. They have had off days, so they don't "need" a break (insert a struggling hitter and they had a day off last week and Monday off as a team). It's pretty clear who the answer is. While I understand that Owen Caissie represents a grab bag of possibilities right now, especially in his initial run as an MLB hitter, that grab bag is disproportionally filled with poor outcomes. Only after learning the league can we expect that to change. So, sure, there is a possibility that Owen Caissie defies the odds and hits well, better than players with significant track record, but it's a very low possibility. I defended giving Matt Shaw plenty of time, but that was as the season was young and there was time for that learning to happen. Owen Caissie doesn't have the same luxury in mid-August. We too often see only the potential good in the unknown and ignore all of the bad. It's why the backup quarterback is everyone's favorite player on a team...that is...until he takes a few snaps and we all remember why he was the backup to begin with. Owen Caissie is a good prospect. I've been high on him for a while, and higher than most. Given a few hundred PA's, I think Caissie can be a very good MLB player. Right now, the likelihood that he is better than any of the Cubs OF'ers is very slim.

He probably offers more off the bench, but I would expect to see him very little. Maybe one start a week if theyre against a lot of RHH. But he wont factor in any game with a LHP on the mound outside of a PH late and won't be valuable as a defensive asset or on the bases so even when he does start, he may only play through the 6th or 7th inning. This is probably as much about on-boarding him as a MLB player than it is anything else.

Really cool to see Caissie called up. I was expecting a roster space hold-type and am always happy to be wrong but Caissie gives the team some thump off the bench. Add in the Canada connection for his first MLB game? Has to be extra special. I wouldnt expect to see him often, and he wont supplant Ian Happ as much as a few people want him to. But hopefully he will have a few cool moments in the last few weeks of the season.

While we likely don't see much of Amaya the rest of 2025, I am so glad its a sprain. Sprains can be healed with time. A massive break and it could have altered his career. Sigh of relief. Even if they find a small fracture, this is truly a best case scenario.

Ian Happ has been one of the better hitting OFers in baseball since 2022 and all of his batted ball data is fine. I havent checked in for a few days, but he had a 134 wRC+ since the ASB just a few days ago. His slump is mostly perceived by fans and less so by data. I think the chances the Cubs would sit Happ, a consistent hitter with underlying data that is at his career norm or better since June 1st for an unproven rookie in a playoff chase is about slim to none. While "never say never" I feel pretty confident that it's very, very, very unlikely. Caissie is only starting in 2025 with an injury.

I think he will get votes. Drake Balwdin is probably running away with it. There will be no pick however. Horton would have had to have been on the active roster Opening Day (or within two weeks). It will just be for Horton's sake, the Cubs would gain nothing.

He won't get a chance to get hot. He won't play. That's the thing. Against a RHH is the only spot to start Caissie or Ballesteros. Castro will give any of the LHH a day off (PCA, Tucker, Happ). Turner will spell Busch. None will realistically sit against RHP unless they play a very long stretch of RHP. The Cubs will not sit anyone of those guys for a rookie. Rookies struggle league wide. All of those hitters are proven and more than capable. They are far better bets today than a rookie. If Caissie or Mo were more versatile, or RHH, or great base runners you probably would see them. Roster wise they don't fit. They are a round peg for a square hole. Even if they do call them up, I would expect to barely see them. They will probably be seen as much as Jon Berti has been for the last two months.

I think Caissie will be up in September, if it helps.

Both were off once last week for a Willi Castro start and had Monday off as a team. They're getting breaks. Neither Caissie nor Ballesteros could realistically give PCA a day off on their own, either.

Sure. But neither will play. They'd be fun for a moment, but I don't think either would be in line for even 10 PAs between today and Sept 1st. They have no true path. Castro is capable of playing everywhere and giving anyone a day off while also a RHH. It's fun, but only for the initial surprise. If it makes you feel better I don't think Nicky Lopez would play at all either. Why I expect it will be him. Less fun on the initial tweet, same general addition to the team in terms of playing time.

I think whomever they bring up will essentially sit their ass on the bench and be seen only in times of "10th inning pinch runner" or "emergency". Id love to see Caissie or Ballesteros, they have more fun outcomes, but just cannot see a scenario where you'd use them. Both make sense as Sept 1 adds, but Lopez fits the way Counsell has tended to use the 26th man. Theyre Milford Men. Neither to be seen nor heard.

Caissie is already on the 40.

Caissie and Ballesteros are the "fun" options but I dont know if the Cubs would bring them up just to plant them on the bench. They wont play over any of the PCA, Busch, Happ, Tucker or Suzuki group and that's the only place they could. Both are LHH and neither platoon with Busch. They're fun but are redundant in almost every scenario. The Cubs have no issue stashing a player in the 26th man spot. They do it constantly. I would expect it will be Nicky Lopez.

Brutal, man. I feel for that guy so much. He has had injury after injury and he keeps coming back. He looked devastated. I hope a combination of fhe replay making it look worse and some initial shock from Amaya has made what is a bad ankle sprain look worse in the moment. But that reminds me so much of Alexander Canario's injury and that threw a massive wrench in his development and career.

Ugh. My fault.