Jason Ross

I would bet it's a near lock they pick him up for the final 3 years. His AAV of $13.25m is asking him to be a #4 on a good staff. He had a bumpy year at times, had an injury, and I think his fastball command waned, but that's a pretty easy and inexpensive bet for how good he can be. Bertz also brought up how early they have to make the decision. I'd put it at 90/10 they pick it up, and frankly, that might be low as long as he doesn't blow his elbow out in the playoffs.

I actually am not entirely certain that the bold is true, but it's because I believe that the real root of the thing comes back to misguided feelings on Tucker as well as misguided feelings on Ballesteros. When it comes to Tucker. I think many have resigned themselves to this as a one-and-done year, In other words, he's not a "real" Cub to many. They have decided that his August is somehow the real Tucker, or that he couldn't possibly DH on a nagging injury. We have seen the fanbase at times look for reasons to throw fits about him at any moment since July. On the Ballesteros aspect, I think an old Family Guy skit explains the concept really well but rookies who we have little MLB sample size exist as a mystery box that could be anything to many of the fanbase and Ballesteros is that mystery box. He's had some recent success too - success I'm a little wary of being capable of being replicated against the best pitchers in baseball (who you should expect to face almost exclusively in the playoffs). And because he'll be with the Cubs for the next six years, he is the future. Combined, I think the injury is a cover story for what would be happening if Tucker was slumping as well. That's not saying you're doing that, but I think a lot of the root of this comes down to all of this. I don't think it's always conscious either. For the record: Kyle Tucker over Moises Ballesteros is the correct choice barring him being so hurt he can't swing. Tucker was 20% better at hitting MLB pitchers than Mo Baller was at hitting Triple-A pitchers.

I'm sad I missed this.

Do you want me to timestamp when I rank *all* the posters or just when I rank you?

We'll be live after every game. Come spend some time with us, We're taking questions, reacting, etc. (It'll be a lot more fun when we win, but even during a loss we'll be live)

Hell yes.

Insurance!

Only in the playoffs. Because why not make your league look closer and closer to an Eastern European Hockey team on the biggest stage?

They should turn down the difficuluty on Mason Miller from HoF to like, veteran, just to be fair.

Jackson Merril did have a very good year last year! Jackson Merril was just as good as Ian Happ *this* year. How many players have had statistically good outlier years and then never replicated them? Even last year, that would require Jackson Merril to be a 9 win player. He was a 5.3 win player. Happ is consistently 3-high 3 wins. He's not even "two times" the player. At his best, he's been about 1.5 wins or so better. But we don't have any data to suggest that's going to be the norm. In 2025, they've been nearly identical. Here's another data point: xwOBA - Happ: .363 and Merril - .360 We don't need to be hyperbolic.

Ian Happ fWAR: 2.8 Jackson Merril fWAR: 3.0 Ian Happ wRC+: 116 Jackson Merril wRC+: 116 I'm not very good at math, but that isn't "three times" the player. That seems like, exactly as good as the other. Maybe you have Happ bunt, maybe you don't - some players just aren't good at it and by bunting you put yourself in an even worse position than the swing, but for the love of god, stop the Ian Happ hate.

Yeah, he hit it hard. Sadly, the recipe for a double play usually includes two good ingredients: someone else had to be on base (a good thing) and someone had to hit the ball hard (a good thing).

Alright, Tucker. Let's get a big one.

I think with how the lineup is going to roll over, you'll get the lefties in the 7th and then you'll be mostly RHP in the 8th and 9th. Like you'll see Sheets and Croenenworth soon, but then it'll be back to the Tatis-RHH top.

BABIP luck going our way here. Nice.

...but why?

Me, a history teacher.

Thielbar - Kittredge - Keller should be the blueprint from here. Lets find an insurance run somewhere and take this.

I love when he runs the clock down,

Feel like we got a little lucky. I don't think he went.

We probably did a little. But I think the narrative of "oh no it's the Cubs offense again!" that this thread had been hard on is just not an accurate description of what's going on. He's generating those whiffs largely due to his own pitching. I don't think we were helping him nearly to the degree people here think. I'd say it's 70/30 in favor of Nick.

He was doing this. Stats wise, it has merit. A little less against a RHP, but it remains statistical viable for someone like Pete.

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