Jason Ross

Tucker's going to come up big in this spot. Feel it. He needs it. The Cubs need it. (I reserve the right to delete this post in five minutes)

Matt Shaw has just played four baseball games in three days. The Cubs are about to take a cross country flight tonight to the West Coast and then play three more games. Today is a game less than 24 hours since the last one. It is fair to need a day off. Players do not play their best when they are exhausted. As well, the Cubs only off day between August 12th and September 3rd is this upcoming Monday, the 25th. It's illogical to think Shaw will play every day. Beyond that, Priester is much better against RHH. He is a pitcher who throws 43% of his pitches as sinkers - a pitch that excels against same-side hitting players. Matt Shaw is RHH. Willi Castro will hit LHH, which forces Quinn Priester (who's xFIP jumps half a full point against LHH) to either throw his best pitch in non-exceptional situations or completely off his best pitch. It is a good day for the Cubs to give their player a day off. Just this week the Cubs have found off days for many of their starters. That Matt Shaw got a day off isn't surprising, the team does need him fresh. I know that it's more fun when Matt Shaw plays, but the Cubs have to balance their best lineup and keeping players in the best physical state to play. So while it's easy to want to see Shaw, we have to be intelligent enough to look at the big picture as fans to understand the purpose behind it.

They essentially handle the NHL games without adding an additional fee, for what it's worth.

One reason that Shaw is sitting for Castro - Castro hits LH and Priester, a heavy sinker-usage arm, struggles against LHH. Which makes sense, sinkers are good against same-side hitters. Priester has a 3.58 xFIP against RHH and a 4.08 xFIP against LHH, with a reduction on his GB% by 10%.

I believe he has done pretty poorly against RHP sinkers. Priester is a sinker merchant. Probably a good rest day for him all things considered.

I like Matt Shaw and Michael Busch enough to be optimistic and believe this. Am I wrong? Maybe! But this time I'm going with an "ignorance is bliss" take for the time being.

I happen to like that Matt Shaw guy. In case you were unaware.

xBA of .790 on that hit that Caissie stole.

Owen Caissie! Not a DH.

Stupid wind

Winning a game 1-0 is the same as winning it 5-4. Yes, the starting pitching has been good recently, but it could be better, just like the offense could always be worse. It doesn't work exactly like this, and I know I'm kind of playing with things a little bit, but what if Javier Assad didn't start in Toronto last week and Edward Cabrera did, for example? The Cubs lost 5-1, sure, but four of the runs were given up by Assad. What if we got Edward Cabrera's start against Atlanta (8-8) instead? He went 8 IP against Atlanta, struck out 11. Owen Caissie was in Iowa on August 12th, so he provided zero benefit to the Chicago Cubs. There is also going to, likely, come a day between today and the end of the season that Kyle Tucker turns mostly back into Kyle Tucker. Maybe it's not "140 wRC+" monster Tucker (if it's really an injury thing) but he'll probably figure it mostly out again. At that point the Cubs will likely rarely play Caissie where as Edward Cabrera will pitch every five days. Lots of things and lots of moving parts. Maybe Ian Happ blows out his quad tomorrow and Caissie starts the rest of the year. Maybe Cabrera blows out his elbow. There's universes and outcomes that throw all sorts of wrenches into the works. Mostly I'm just saying I don't think that just because Owen Caissie was good yesterday means that not trading him either makes the Cubs better or that the Cubs were right to not trade him. There's a lot of moving parts to consider.

Welcome to NSBB! While I understand Caissie had a good day yesterday (I remain a big Caissie fan myself, might I add, just for the rest of this post), what if the Cubs had Edward Cabrera? He's been the 11th best SP in baseball since the TDL, posting a 2.94 xFIP and the ninth best K-BB ratio for starters. Caissie had a nice game yesterday but Cabrera has had four really good starts and has been worth almost a full win on his own. I'm not trying to drag down Caissie, only suggesting that I don't think this conversation is as easy as "Well Owen had a good game yesterday so I'm glad we kept him" there is an opportunity cost involved. What Cabrera overall would have cost is more than just Caissie, so it's not as simple as just one or the other, as well. My general point is that while I understand many people here have concluded (for whatever reason) that the slumping Cubs are the "real" Cubs (I don't agree with this) that there are universes out there where the Cubs traded Caissie and are a better team for it as much as yesterday was a fun day from the prospect. I don't think Kyle Tucker is broken forever or even the rest of the year so there's going to come a time in the near future where the Cubs aren't really playing Owen Caissie much and what Edward Cabrera is could mean more to the 2025 Cubs (and based on his control would help for a few years beyond).

I refuse to believe there is a better nickname for any football player than the Pilsbury Throwboy.

You guys are all over here talking about programs who win National Titles and I'm wondering if Kentucky even gets to three wins on the year. Did you see that 3-star DT we got? Chose us over Central Florida and FIU.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images Justin Turner's time in a Cub uniform has been met with a good amount of ire from fans in online circles. Groans and moans are abound regardless of what platform you chose to frequent every time his name pops up in a lineup. A large contingency of Cubs fans had become so fed-up they'd rather have seen Michael Busch hit against southpaws than Turner. A quick glance at Justin Turner's FanGraphs page will likely confirm those biases about the season he has had; his wRC+ has him around 30% under league average, and he's running a negative fWAR on the season. Without diving deeper, it'd be pretty easy to feel justified in those complaints. I'm usually a strong advocate for using wRC+ and fWAR as a way to determine value, but for once, I'm going to go against the grain and say that Turner has been better than both those stats suggest he's been. I feel as though these full-season numbers bury the lede on Turner's season; he's actually been pretty useful. The Cubs signed Justin Turner, first and foremost, to hit left-handed pitching and to be a complement to Michael Busch in the lineup. That's actually a role that he's excelled at that this season. On the year (as of this writing), the 40-year-old has put up a 122 wRC+ with a triple-slash line of .291/.333/.468 against southpaws. While it's true that his 13 wRC+ against RHP leaves tons to be desired, much of those PA's were during a time period early in the year where a Seiya Suzuki injury and Matt Shaw's struggles forced the Cubs into a situation where they were playing him outside of his best use case. Turner's 122 wRC+ against LHP is the tenth-best for first baseman (min. 70 PA's) on the season against lefties. The reality is that he's been everything the Cubs could ask from him in that aspect. What may be most impressive about his season, though is that he's managed to find a role at his ripe age of 40. You may not have noticed it, but MLB hitters are not sticking around as much as they have in the past. Foolish Baseball, a lovely baseball-centered YouTube channel, recently explored the phenomenon showcasing how few hitters are sticking around post age-35 league-wide. While Turner doesn't play enough to qualify for a batting title, he is the only one of two hitters above the age of 40 to have even a single plate appearance on the year. And while he doesn't hit LHP as well as Paul Goldschmidt (who has a wRC+ over 220 against lefties), he's hit them better than anyone else over the age of 36 on the year. So, while it's true that he's no longer the middle-of-the-order monster he used to be, and that his 2025 season started quite poorly, he's managed to turn the tide in the eternal fight against the Grim Reaper of Baseball: time. I will admit that after his poor April, I too wondered if Turner was a victim of Father Time and if his career was coming to a close in front of our eyes. The one thing Turner would do regardless of his performance was give you a professional at-bat—as in, he was always making good swing choices—but beyond that, there were some red flags in his game early that made me pause about his future. Many of the telltale signs of decline were there: diminished numbers in his hard-hit%, exit velocity, and swing speed. Impressively, Turner has found a bit of the fountain of youth; his average bat speed has gone (comparatively) through the roof. Since Statcast started tracking bat speed in 2023, Turner's swing speed is currently the highest on record despite being one of the eldest statesmen to take a swing in Major League Baseball this season. Coinciding with the increase in swing speed, the first baseman has seen his contact quality jump as well. Over his last 60 plate appearances, Turner's hard-hit% has increased 11% over his season average, his barrel% has jumped around 7%, and his exit velocity is within spitting distance of 90mph on average. Not only that, but he's seen a significant uptick in launch angle. So, to recap: he's hitting the ball harder, better, in the air more and with increased bat speed. You don't need me to tell you that all of these are good things. The cause of Justin Turner's better batted ball quality appears to have been accomplished by tweaking his batting stance and where he makes contact with the baseball. Turner started the season very open, sitting at around 25° pre-swing and keeping his feet around 16.7 inches apart. Turner has always had an open stance with a big stride; this is fairly normal for the slugger. Due to a handful of factors, however, an issue with Turner early in the season was that he simply wasn't catching the ball out in front of the plate, which is where you want to be making initial contact with the baseball. You can see Turner's set up and stride during the month of April below. . Looking at Turner in August, we can find subtle, but noticeable changes. First, Turner's feet pre-swing at slightly changed; a little less open, now at 19° and closer together, now at 13.3 inches apart. He's also one inch closer to the front of the box; he's still very deep, but just a little closer. This has had profound impact, however, as it's allowed Turner's front foot to land further in front of the plate, allowing him to catch the ball out in front more. Hitting the ball in front of the plate is a good thing; it allows for a hitter to access their power more, to pull the ball easier, and to simply be on time. Add this change in with his newfound faster swing, and it's not hard to see how he's staving off the eternal battle just a little longer. So, sure, Justin Turner's FanGraphs page paints a story of a replacement player who has been almost 30% worse than league average offensively on the year. I don't want to discount that first part of the season—Turner was a lead anchor in the lineup and was not helping, either against LHP or RHP. I also don't want to make him seem like a hero; he has essentially been worthless against right-handed arms this year, and his use case currently is quite specific. But, if we go a bit beyond the box scores and add some context, we can see that Turner's done what he was brought here to do: hitting lefties at a productive clip. He's done so by making micro-adjustments at the plate which has resulted in some of his best batted ball data in years. It's easy to groan when we see his name in the lineup, thinking that he's no more than a glorified cheerleader, but he's a useful person to have on the bench and to hit (exclusively, it seems) against LHP. His 122 wRC+ dwarfs the 50 wRC+ Busch has against lefties on the year, so he has earned his spot in the lineup against them. With MLB rosters expanding to 26 players in recent seasons, you can have a specialized glass-cannon like Turner on the team, especially if you can offset it with all of the versatility that someone like Willi Castro brings to the table. There is lots of blame to spread around with the Cubs' recent lack of offensive production, but Justin Turner doesn't appear to be the anchor he once was; he has use and purpose in this lineup, and for that to continue to be true to at age 40 is mighty impressive. Father Time will eventually defeat Turner, but he won't go down without a fight... he's going to go down swinging. Have you noticed the improvements Turner has made on the season? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Willi Castro! Have day yourself, bud.

I do think there is "too much contact". Frank Schwindel is a guy who comes to mind with that. He had really great contact ability and some good power. But you could kill the guy because he'd swing so often and make contact so often on pitches out of the zone that you never had to throw him actual strikes for him to hit; he'd just get himself out. Nico could probably be a better offensive hitter if he swung and missed a little more often on chase pitches simply because he'd get another crack at a good pitch to hit. But I also think he's a fine version of what he is so it's whatever. He has a uniquely weird skillset and I won't complain or look a gift horse in the mouth.

Mostly because he was terrible here.

I always forget Taylor Rogers pitched at Kentucky. (I understand that this is a very much "me only" thing, but welcome to my thoughts).

Every day I get on the NSBB Writer's Slack there's some new team Brock owns the site for. "Oh, what, Rockies Rickhouse just opened? I didn't know there were enough Rockies fans for that" I think most days.

Mr. Shaw has certainly been fun post-ASB.

I said I didn't think he'd play much. And up until yesterday, he hadn't and had a single hit in his PA's. He's had a really good day today! He got super lucky in his first PA this game; he struck out based on Statcast, then had 65.7mph ball in play land for a hit. So let's be fair to everyone here that part of that mild boost was luck. But let's not take away game 1! He was really good! But the reason he's playing is because the Cubs decided to sit Tucker more than should have been expected, too. That said, I'm always happy to be wrong when the Cubs are getting the benefit of the doubt. I will also point out this; no one has been a bigger Owen Caissie fan. While it was on another website at the time, I advocated for the Cubs to draft him in the 2nd round before the draft and was bummed out when the Padres took him. So I'll pat myself on the back here; I was in on the Owen Caissie experience when he was in Canadian HS. But most importantly, let's not move the goal posts. The discussion was Turner vs Caissie there. Turner was the better bet even if it didn't work out.

They never over think the numbers too much. Numbers are unbiased. But a good reminder that in baseball, even the "right" choice at the plate ends up being an out 50-60% of the time.

100%. Big start from him.