Jason Ross

Well, to be pedantic, using Fangraphs current playoff odds, we have a 25.8% chance at making the playoffs and a .7% chance of winning the World Series. Again, I'm not saying the Cubs have to sell, but I do think selling remains a viable option. You are certainly allowed your opinion, and I'll just have to respectfully disagree.

Well, the last line is pretty unfair and pretty unfounded; if you'd go back to my original point, it's that I can buy an argument for either buying or selling. As in; if the Cubs want to keep Marcus Stroman, and if they want to keep Cody Bellinger, that they should highly consider surrounding them with a more complete team. I'd be for the Cubs spending prospect capital on controllable players, or quality rentals (emphasis on quality). What I don't want the Cubs to do is to say "well we kind of tried!" bring in a "raise the floor 1b" and then be done. That's rife for the worst case outcome of threading needles. If you want to make a logical answer for trading Stroman and Bellinger, the answer is this just isn't a very good team. It's a team that's flying high today, but as stated, things are never as good as they feel at the apex, and they're never as bad when you're in the valley of death. The Cubs have had to go on a 7 game win streak to get to .500. Yes, the RD is really nice, but I'm a little skeptical about the RD a bit; they're quite reliant on BABIP-god offense (5th best BABIP in the league while being 20th in ISO) and at some point that BABIP-luck may dry up (league BABIP is .20 points lower than the Cubs). Pitching wise, their BP is bottom 10 in xFIP, and the Cubs are pretty top-heavy in the rotation. Steele and Stroman are doing a ton of work. Kyle Hendricks (3.45 era vs 4.53 xFIP) and Drew Smyly (4.57 xFIP) are pretty sketchy moving forward, and Jameson Taillon is a questionmark (his xFIP is lower than the ERA, but has a horrid habit for leaving pitches down the zone, so he's earning his HR/FB% right now. Is that fixable)? That's not a team that fills you with a ton of encouragement, regardless of the division. There's major holes here. On top of that, you're looking at a 30% chance to make the playoffs. Is that high enough for you today to say "Well it's worth it to get nothing for Stroman if we don't make it". Because the return there an be quite useful; it's ammo for a trade in the offseason, etc...On top of that, you've got reports that the Cubs are worrying about going over the luxury tax this summer. That doesn't sound like what teams committed to winning say. Lastly, the market right now is extremely foggy. Giolito just went for a great return and I'm not sure what else is definitively out there. Is Snell available? Outside of him, then who? Maybe Verlander? If someone wants the money on the hook. Who's buying? And how desperate are they? These are questions I can't answer, I'm not in those rooms, but if it's a seller's market...well the Cubs have pieces. Really good ones. I don't want anyone to think I'm prospect hording. I'm entirely pro-the-Cubs acting like the Chicago Cubs and going and winning the damn division. But I'm also going to understand there's a flip side here, and there's an argument that can be made that trading their players now, could pay off too. Would it suck? Yeah, sure, for now. I'm enjoying watching the Cubs win baseball games, it's fun. But I'm not here to just watch the Cubs be okay-ish, either. The Cubs need to nail this deadline, IMO, I just think it's not as clear cut as "Well our division sucks so stay the course". Sometimes hard decisions today pay off greatly tomorrow. I can truly say I don't know what the "right" answer is here. Only that I can see a flip side where the hard thing today pays off.

I mean, I don't think they'll sell tonight so no matter what, they won't have a 7 game win streak; either it's 8 or it's reset. As it's been reported, they'll go down to the wire. I think there's a very different space to being, 4 games back at 51-50 tonight than where they'll be on Monday, after two more games. For example, if they lose tonight, drop to .500 and are 5 games back again, that entire first part is gone. Maybe they win 2 more in a row and are 2 games back...well...that's very different too. With the players...eh...they'll get over it. Bellinger and Stroman are the free agents to be, and they're not extending regardless. On the last part? I don't think it'll matter; who cares what a pundit says and money fixes all in FA. It was Hoyer who pissed and moaned deadline 2021 about Bryant/Rizzo/Baez on the radio and we managed to sign other FA's. We had other players resign and extend. I'm not saying at all that the Cubs should sell at all costs either. But I think you can make a very cogent, cold-hearted and logical argument that the Cubs could sell and while it'd suck for fans today, it could make a difference for 2024 positively. A lot of this is going to have to come down to the Cubs ability to read the market while being realistic with themselves. We can debate whether or not the Cubs management is capable of reading that market capably, but I think it's a pretty important to get this exactly right, and right could mean selling still.

I'll say this: I don't care whatever it looks like. I only care what it means to the organization in totality in a baseball function. Whatever it looks like is very subjective and rarely matters. What looks like a white flag today could pay off in spades later. And what looks like an effort today could end up with an 81 win finish. There's lots of options, I don't mean these to be the only two, just that I think there's a big picture to consider. You're right, I don't think the Yankees or the Dodgers would do that. But I think it's a bit disingenuous to compare the Cubs to the Yankees and the Dodgers simply because I think both of those organizations care far more about winning than the Cubs have/do. I think both teams would have better rosters and are far less concerned with the boogey-man luxury tax. If the Cubs acted like the Dodgers and the Yankees, I'd agree with you. I don't think the Cubs do that, which is why I have some pretty big hang ups as of now as to whether or not the Cubs are in a position to really make the most of losing Stroman for nothing. As a fan and only as a fan, I want them to keep the two and make the playoffs. But I think, as the word fan (derived from fanatic) implies, the fan in me may not always be the most logical of places to be coming from.

Well, Stroman can't be offered a QO any longer; he used that up with the Mets. I also think he'll be able to get what Giolito brought back, at least to the Cubs (remember, they have some funky internal evals that don't really match with the industry. And they seem to do quite well). I think that's an important distinction. It's you trade Stroman now, or you get nothing back. And I think that's a very real discussion the Cubs need to have. Which is why I think the Cubs either need to say "You know what, we're going to win the division" and go out and make that happen (obviously without stupid things like shipping PCA for a rental), or need to say "I don't like the margins and we cannot risk things like losing Stroman for nothing with a team that just has too much margin for error" The amount of sellers is also questionable. I think a lot of this has to hinge on the Cubs reading the market.

There's not a lot out there on Rojas defensively right now. Which makes sense, he was in the DSL, never touched the ACL really, and wasn't a top-top IFA signing. Per a Cubs instructional coach

I remain on the fence. The Cubs are super hot right now, but Im a staunch believer things are never as good as they feel when you're steaming along winning and never as bad when you're in the duldrums of a losing streak. Even at 4 games back, this is a very flawed team with 2 of their best players leaving at seasons end. You can sell me this is a flawed team, and that they're a 5 game bad streak from being in a very precarious position. Where I'll be most mad is if they just tip their toe in the "buy" market and get some patchwork BP arm and a patchwork 1b who won't realistically raise the bar much. If you're in, be in. If you're out, I can accept it, but be out. Don't lose Stroman for nothing and Bellinger for a QO in November except a "well, we kinda tried?" effort.

Sounds like the Mets and the Rangers have agreed in principal to a Scherzer deal minus the approval.

As of now, probably. But I wouldn't say that's a long term outlook, either. The Cubs aren't against putting arms in the BP to *use* them only to place them in the rotation later. The Dodgers do similar things and the Cubs are pretty close in how they handle MiLB arms to LAD. If there's a complaint I have, it's that the Dodgers block their good prospects with good players and force their prospects to succeed beyond them, where as the Cubs are happy to block prospects with lesser talents, it feels.

I'm so glad you called that. And so angry it was right.

It has been! I was worried you'd not find us here. Been good. Weird to see the Cubs winning, for sure. How you been? Have missed seeing you around. You made PSD in many ways, legitimate.

He made it! Bystro!

Hey, Trey did a thing. That's fun.

Caissie 1-2, double, walk, no K so far. Lowes his K% under 28% for the month of July.

I think the idea of an opener can be useful, but I don't understand what the purpose is here. Wesneski is someone who struggles against LHP, so is the idea that the Cardinals load up LHH and then tee off on Wesneski? Is the idea that maybe Wesneski can survive a full trip and then you'll have so many lefties that Smyly will be more effective? Smyly's been better against LHP, but still carries a weak 4.47 xFIP (or did before Nootbaar's homerun). I simply don't understand the idea here. Smyly's been pretty bad this year, so what's the purpose of him being the longer-man? It feels backwards. Feels like you force the Cardinals to go RHH heavy for the first few hitters, and then put Wesneski in after an inning. I'm just so confused.

I cannot tell you why. I have no idea.

Can we please be done with Drew Smyly for a while? Please?

One bad pitch from Wes so far. Encouraging two innings.

Wonder why the skip for Wicks? I assume it's more of the Cubs being uber cautious with arms, but I guess you just don't know. EDIT: Sounds like Birch thinks the same based on comments.

It's the kind of argument I expect my middle school students to give me. "But you didn't warn me that I wasn't allowed to throw my food at him, so I shouldn't be in trouble". Well, no horsefeathers, kid. You don't need a warning for that.

Well, Mikolas got suspended for 5 days. If only they had taken the time to write the rule "It's totally cool to throw at a guy if he accidentally hit a catcher with his backswing" into the rulebook! Damn those unwritten rules!

My guess is the argument David Ross would give you is that More's defensively shaky at 3b, and has a 79 wRC+ against LHP on the season. I'd counter with Wisdom being DH level bad at 3b, and Trey Mancini being worthless, personally, so I don't agree, but that'd probably be my guess.

Rucker to AAA, Wesneski called up. Will start.

Man, there's nothing more than I hate about people whinging and moaning about fictitious rules that only exist in their brain. Example: here's Yan Gomes getting knocked out of a game with a backswing. No one threw at anyone.