Jason Ross

I honestly can't say whether the Cubs winning these games is truly a good thing or a bad thing. If the Cubs end up not selling, but buying the likes of mediocre talents like CJ Cron only to miss out on the playoffs, lose Stroman and Bellinger for mediocre comp picks...I don't think this is a good thing. More fun at the time, maybe, but long term worse than having 2 of the better trading pieces on the market. On the other hand, if this causes the Cubs to be a bit more aggressive and buy some cost controlled players (I won't really speculat who, because these players are rarely "shopped" but do exist on the market. See the Blue Jays acquisition of like Jose Berrios the other year) than it could be great.

Dude who runs Saver is not really an insider so much as the most badass internet detective on the planet. With that said he's *become* more of an insider (I'm privy to a few folk who DM him) and he's becoming more of one. Awesome version of a self-made internet man, truly.

This is going to make me sound far too self-important so please bare with me (I'm not important in the least) but I've got a pretty good connect when it comes to draft signings, and the lot (if you're familiar, I'm personal friends with the guy who runs Savermetrics) and even he was baffled by the delay. There just wasn't noise out there as to why the delay...makes me *think* benign reasons like you mentioned about a wedding, etc.

Considering he was a 2nd round selection, I'd assume they knew his number pre-draft. As well, considering they got the other 19 signed, I doubt the Cubs are surprised by this over, as they could have used the $300K (and almost assuredly would have) elsewhere. Not sure the hold up, but you can't gamble losing that kind of slot money.

Glad he's signed. I'm pretty high on this pick myself; I love the gamble. Junior year is a big year for SEC arms and college arms in general, and an arm with his stuff entering his junior year is where we'd see it. Sadly with the TJS we never saw it, but there's 1st round stuff. Especially in a draft bereft of upside college arms past Waldrep, getting a possible top-junior, regardless of the injury, is a win to me. The Cubs are really developing arms well. They identify arms well.

The Rockies just had 3 of their top-5 SP prospects drop with TJS. Anthony Sentzela, of their MLB rotation also will have TJS. The other two top-5 prospects are Chase Dollander (who hasn't thrown a pitch for the Rockies) and the 4th...is currently recovering from TJS. I know some have some reservations on how the Cubs handle their MiLB pitching prospects with relative "kid gloves" but the Cubs have done a great job of avoiding these types of injuries. They've really not suffered many TJS injuries (except for just drafted prospects) in their prospect ranks, or their MLB roster.

I actually just came here to say: Christopher Morel's scouting report in the MiLB would have read something along the lines of: His best tool was his glove. I'll also say this; MiLB defensive scouting reports are always a bit shaky because there's just no data down there; we're going off eye reports and some of these things just can't be scouted. Javier Baez was supposedly a weak fielder at SS, Albert Almora was supposedly a plus CF'er, for example. Doesn't make all scouting reports bad, but defense is easily the most subjective of all. Not sure if this is a case of "Morel's scouting report just over inflated his defense" or "he's been bussed around so much, MLB-AAA, and positionally, that he's just out of sorts".

I found PSD after posting on the CBS.com sports forum and needed a more intelligent crowd.

I think it's an improved roster, but I would say it's not a 90 win team. The current roster is really not that great; it's a team I think that borders on .500 capability, but needs variance to truly get above it (I know the RD is really high, but I think it's a bit artificially inflated for the talent level). Urias and Stroman is a push, extending Bellinger is a push, so the improvement would thus be Matt Chapman, and I think Chapman' good but he's not 8 win good. I think that gets the team around 85-86 wins with some positive variance.

I'm very tepid on a Candelario acquisition. I don't believe in his glove at 3b; he's a career -16 DRS at 3b (granted a lot of this is the 2018 season) but overall, he's usually bad...his current +3 is the only season he's ever played this much 3b and been a positive (his only other positive was a +1 in 2019 in part time duty). This goes with a pretty poor arm; 24% arm strength. His wRC+ is good on the season, but his baseball savant data isn't very pretty. He's 34% in average exit velocity, 42% barrel%, 44% chase rate, 35% hard hit...it's not the hit profile of someone you want to believe in heading forward. He's also pretty one dimensional at the plate; he crushes fastballs and does nothing else. As a primarily platoon bat acquired to play some 1b/DH, you can sell me on a cheap trade (I.E. in the Dan Vogelbach mold last deadline). But outside of that, Candelario doesn't fill me with much confidence as a 3b moving forward. He's more likely to be bad at 3b than be good, and I'm not sure the baseball savant batted ball profile screams someone who's going to outhit being a negative fielder. None of this is to suggest we shouldn't look to improve the 3b position in general, as our current 3b group is Patrick Wisdom (who I frankly don't believe belongs on an MLB roster trying to win), Nick Madrigal (who's surprised at his level at 3b but I don't think has the bat for position) and Christopher Morel (who needs to change his throwing angle to really be an option). I'm just not much of a believer in Candelario.

I'm with JD here; I think Yonathon Perlaza will get a chance in 2023 at some point after the sell-off. I'm not so convinced there are many in Iowa deserving of a chance, and the MLB roster itself has plenty of deadweight. Currently, on the Iowa roster, Mervis needs to be promotion #1, but after him, I think Perlaza is probably #2. Velazquez is not good; he's got a 29% K% in AAA to go with a 102 wRC+. He had 200+ PA's last year that resulted in replacement level play, and he's not a real CF). Canario needs a summer in AAA to build back up after his injuries, Chase Strumpf has been terrible, Slaughter has a 98 wRC+ and is over hlf way to 27, Bote's a hasbeen who's beating up on AAA, Edwin Rios sucks, . There should be PA's for Perlaza as well; the the Cubs will have the DH (Mervis should be playing a ton of 1b, Amaya playing C). And there's a handful of spaces to open on the 40man. The Cubs should probably find out if there's something to Perlaza or not before they're forced to leave him open to the Rule V if they have any belief he's a useful MLB hitter. Honestly, the only other player with an argument for me is Luis Vazquez, but Vazquez is a completely different type (not really a good DH option, as he's a glove first player). I'm not really counting Madrigal here, as he's on a rehab assignment. I think Perlaza is a questionable MLB hitter personally, but his development, especially over the last 2 months of so, has been impressive and I can't ignore it. His 127 wRC+ is really solid. He's shown impressive development in his left handed swing especially. And he's not too old for the level.

TIFWIW, but Levine claims Cubs are more likely to keep Bellinger than Stroman. Not sure exactly what that means (or how likely it is)

Great minds think alike, right!? Actually, credit to Matt, it really is a good idea and he definitely had it first. I think there's a possibility the Rays would be interested in that. Meijia has been terrible this season and does nothing well. He's bad at hitting and framing. Christian Bethancourt has been, just regular bad himself; .3 fWAR, a 75 wRC+ and 55% framing. Gomes would be a big upgrade on either, IMO (despite his framing metrics not being great this year) . He's got the team friendly option as well and Bethancourt is a FAA at seasons end. I think a Stroman/Gomes could really work there.

Whoops, thought this was about Baltimore. Let me amend: I think Mead's a possibility, though a stretch. He's had a wonky season and doesn't have a super clear path to the MLB today; Parades remains ahead of him, Diaz remains ahead of him, Arozarena remains ahead of him. With Camienro blowing up, he's got him breathing down his neck a level lower. Mead's in prospect-no-man-land. The Rays do trade these players (they traded Libretore for Arozarena, they gave up Joe Ryan, etc). With the Rays losing Meija, you could package Gomes here; I don't think it has to be a prospect. Do I think it's likely? Certainly not, there's like 10 teams Stroman could end up with so any one of them being likely is a long shot to begin with and Mead's probably off the table. But I think there's world where he is on the table, moreso than the other names.

Per Sharma, Alcantara's leg injury appears to be a "knee contusion" and the Cubs have avoided serious injury.

I think there are players the Cubs can acquire that will be ready sometime in 2024, yes. Connor Norby, Heston Kjerstad, and Joey Ortiz from the Orioles are ETA 2024 (if not already 2023 ETA) and are all surplus to requirements (and I think possible to attain regardless of the reports). I think the Rays have a few players who are 2023 or 2024 ETA (Aranda, for example). These are just a few names off the top of my head. I also think it's important to remember that Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown were two prospects no one had on their radar last deadline, and both will likely add some starts (one already has) this season, so just because they're not on our radar today doesn't mean they won't be able to help. The Cubs will get their best return, however, regardless of ETA. I saw a great quote I wish I could take credit for online, but I can't (and I'd give the proper credit, but I can't remember who said it), but the quote was that the Cubs can target players close to the MLB but will prioritize the best return, and I think that's what we have to expect from this deadline.

Owen Caissie down to a 27% K% in the month of May. His Ks will always be high but for him, a goldilocks zone is probably in that 26-27% range. He can walk and HR enough for that number not to be a killer.

I'm just guessing, but I think no deal would be hung up over a Brennen Davis addition today. If I'm trading with the Cubs, and I need an extra something to get a trade over the line, Davis isn't the guy I'm targeting. If I wanted an OF'er to get over the line, Cole Roederer probably is more interesting than Davis, for example, and would function as a last piece sweetner. Conversely, if I'm the Cubs, I'm not sure I'm just giving Davis for free like that too, if I still believe in the upside. I think there's upside in Davis aplenty; and while the batted ball data was weak, the bat to ball skill was showing much improved. If you can find the middle ground between "can't hit anything in and up" and "can make contact on most everything but can't hit with authority" Davis profiles as a starting OF'er. But as a team trading for him, you'd have to find that middle ground and hope the health came back and that's too much volatility for his inclusion to be the difference in completing a trade, and not completing that trade.

Yeah, big night for them. You know it's a good night when even Nwogu is getting in on the action (ah, Nwogu. I had hopes for thee).

So, good news on Marquez is that he's back on the mound. That's really the best news here. He's on the mound, and he's throwing. The velo reports are not what you'd love to hear; 101mph in the 5th inning just isn't there any more, and it's likely not coming back. Last go he was clocked in around 93-94mph. He's showing more of a 3/4rs/sidearm type of delivery than in the past which might help with some deception. There's probably a bit more velocity to clock in somwhere, as he gets his feet under him, but probably only a bit. The one thing I'll say is this; the Cubs have had a knack of saving "dead" prospects here. Justin Steele, Miguel Amaya, and Adbert Alzolay were all, essentially, dead prospects and they're playing important roles on the roster right now. Cole Roederer is being resurrected at this moment as well in Tennessee. Brailyn Marquez can still be something. Maybe it's going to be a 7th inning arm instead of the 100mph flame throwing #2 in the rotation he looked like might have been in 2019, but hey, something is always better than nothing. (and please, remember this when we think of Brennen Davis. He's not dead yet either).

Tommy Birch, beat writer of the Iowa Cubs, just listed Hayden Wesneski as the Iowa Cubs probable starter for tomorrow. Take that for what it's worth, as well.

Yeah, it's a weird thing. It'd make sense if they were trying to get out a bunch of hitters that maybe the piggy-backer would struggle with...but both Wesneski and Fulmer are guys who are slider heavy and therefore struggle against LHH...so it's not like there's anything gained here or reverse splits type thing. I don't get it.

I can only hope Smyly gets traded. He's over performed his xFIP pretty significantly over this last 1.5 years and I don't have much belief in him moving forward. I was quite disappointed to see the team had resigned him to a two year contract in the offseason. Strange, however, to see him skipped/paused here.

I think probably too much on the O's end. I think Kjerstad + one of the other 2, maybe some low level 19/20 year old arm with upside as a third, the Cubs picking up significant money on the contracts.

Yeah, he's the likely bet to keep the spot. I think we'll see a few BP prospects who will come up and start taking some leverage spots sometime into 2024 as well (Palencia, Estrada if he can get right, Little, Hodge, etc...)