Jason Ross

I've watched a ton of Jordan Wicks over the last two years...partly because I went into draft-day-2021 with a pretty strong "Don't draft Wicks" mantra (in my defense I wanted Sal Frelick to fall, or the Cubs to go with Montgomery, both who would have been winners, but I digress) and I just needed to "get it" because I just didn't draft night. My best thing I can say is this: Jordan Wicks reminds me of Jon Lester in so many ways; the way they act on the mound, the way they attack hitters, the lack of anything that's "overpowering"... I don't think he is Jon Lester and it's pretty unlikely he'll have that type of a career...but Jordan Wicks has that kind of vibe to me. It's super subjective, and I don't like being subjective like that...but Wicks won me over. I have a pretty sneaking suspicion he's going to do that to a lot of people when he gets here.

Cuas. Strikes, maybe?

A 22% K% is pretty good though, especially if we're talking about a high GB% pitcher. I want to be very careful with this, because I'm not saying Wicks=Stroman at all, but Marcus Stroman posted a 20% K% with the Chicago Cubs this year, but because he was really good at using our infield, was having a great season prior to injury. Should we expect Wicks to dip below 22% K% at the MLB, especially initially? Yeah sure, he's entering the league and that's a fair expectation and it's likely to occur. But being a ground ball merchant like Wicks' should be with a fastball (with good vertical movement), a changeup and a curveball can really bring that K% into line. Historically he's always had good control, and we can probably expect most of that to translate. Wicks doesn't need to strike out 9+ to be effective. I'm not saying he's a stud, but there's a guy there. Honestly, I think he's the most underrated arm in the system today. Outside of the changeup nothing stands out, but he's just effective. He's a "sum of all the parts" kind of guy to me. I think people will be surprised when he comes up with how effective he is. I also hesitate to worry about pitch counts. The Cubs are essentially the clubhouse leader in being careful with MiLB arms league wide. I would expect the Cubs to probably have him around an 80-90 pitch watch in his first start or two, and build from there, but I also think Wicks is capable of more and that a decent amount of this is the Cubs MiLB mandate of watching over their arms. I'm not worried about it being a playoff chase right now because the reality is, that's just what it is. I'm worried about the guy I'd trust the most to get the Cubs into the 5th inning in a pretty safe place. It's not Smyly. It's not Killian. Wesneski can't get LHH out. So give me the guy who throws strikes, and gets ground balls and has some upside. It may end up being a damned if you do, damned if you don't regardless, but I'd still go Wicks if I had a pick.

Damn.

Damn, thought that was going to be 2.

Yeah, when he's throwing strikes Palencia is a blast. Just a little more consistency and he'll be a real weapon.

I would, again, disagree that he hasn't been that good and think he's actually looked really great at times, especially over his last few starts. He striking out about a hitter per inning, and his swinging strike has been going up. Over his last 19 IP, he's got a K% of 22%, which is pretty good. The fastball has some really good movement to it (mitigating the velocity a bit) and his changeup is a legit plus-plus pitch. Then add in the high number of GB's for a Cubs defense who is among the very best in baseball when it comes to ground balls, and I think it's a pretty good combination. I'll remain on record; Jordan Wicks is where I'd go if I needed 4 solid innings at the MLB level. I wouldn't count on him to get much more, maybe a 5th, but I wouldn't count on Wesneski, Killian or Smyly to get me more than 4 either. The 6 day rest thing isn't great right now, and I'd buy that being a bit of a speed bump, so I'll concede on that point.

"Barely viable in AAA" is pretty harsh for someone who's striking out just under a hitter per inning, has a GB% nearing 50% and has a HR/FB% under 10.

I would disagree. I like Wesneski still long term, but he simply cannot get LHH right now and has shown it consistently. He needs to develop a LHH out-pitch or he's a BP arm. Killian just isn't an MLB starter, IMO and I don't say that lightly. I really liked him entering last year, but his inability to develop any sort of chase pitch is a pretty decent death knell. The velo returning is nice, but I just don't see it. Wicks has the changeup, he throws strikes, and he'll get ground balls. I don't think he's going to be a revelation at first, but I think he can be a stabilizing force in the sense of I'd trust him a bit more to make it 4 solid innings. I'd order it: 1) Wicks, 2) Wesneski and 3) Killian. I think Wicks is a pretty slept on arm.

Great job by Wes to get out of that.

Getting Wicks to start tonight probably would have been a difficult task with his rotation spots in Iowa. But they have plenty of time between tonight and Smyly's next turn to get that in order. Wicks is the pitcher I'd go with here. His changeup is a great pitch, he's going to get ground balls, throws a lot of strikes and he's got a real good mentality on the mound. The Cubs should be working on figuring that out tonight. They don't even had a full 40-man currently. Get Wicks on the 40, I wouldn't expect him to be a star right out of the gate, and probably never, but there's a pretty good arm there. He's got as much upside as anyone they could put in there.

The Cubs have generally done a good job identifying pitching over the last few years. They've crushed it in the BP. But man, I have no idea why they resigned Smyly to a 2 year contract.

Jordan Wicks. please.

It's time for another week of "Hot or Not" down on the farm. Did Owen Caissie continue to murder baseballs like he had a personal vendetta against them? Did Kevin Alcantara's return go according to plan? How many strikeouts did Cade Horton have? Find out in our weekly recap. Image courtesy of © Greg Swiercz / USA TODAY NETWORK Iowa Cubs, AAA (3-3) Up and down week, the Iowa Cubs, with runs a plenty (both scored and surrendered), with the lowest scoring game of the week at 5-3, and only going up from there. 🔥 Jordan Wicks: 4.2 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: I think this could be Jordan Wicks' last start in AAA. He gave up a few two-out hits, which led to his runs, but overall, he looked great. To add to his excellent start, he actually had an 8th strikeout nullified with a catcher's interference 🔥 Pete Crow-Armstrong: 130 wRC+, 13.8 K%, 6.9% BB%, 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 3B: Ho-hum? At this point, we can probably copy and paste Pete Crow-Armstrong into the "hot" section weekly. Like Jordan Wicks, there's probably a call-up in store for PCA in the near future. 🔥 Yonathan Perlaza: 164 wRC+, 28.6% K%, 10.7% BB%, 1 HR, 4 2B: Nice bounce back for Yonathan Peralaza. The K% is a bit high, but the 164 wRC+ and the four doubles are excellent. Peralaza is still fighting to be selected for the Rule V draft at the end of the season, and these kinds of weeks will go a long way in making that choice difficult. 🔥 Luis Vazquez: 146 wRC+, 10% K%, 15% BB%, 1 HR: I think maybe I should care a bit more about Luis Vazquez than I have. He hasn't stopped hitting regardless of his level; he's got a 60-grade glove at SS...why am I complaining? He's certainly a pop-up prospect, but I'm getting on board with him being a squarely top-20 prospect in the system. 🥶Matt Mervis: 107 wRC+, 39.3% K%, 10.7% BB%, 1 HR, 2 2B: Anytime you strike out nearly 40% of the time, you're a candidate for the cold list. As a 1b, you have to be better than this, so despite the 107 wRC+, I'm going to knock him for a somewhat poor week. 🥶Alexander Canario: 66 wRC+, 34.8% K%, 4.3 BB%, 1 HR, 2 2B: Well, the power is there, but the plate discipline and swing and miss from earlier in his career has returned with a vengeance. Alexander Canario got on the prospect map last year because of the swing changes that helped him overcome his downfalls, but we're seeing those pop back up. Hopefully, it's more rust than anything. Tennessee Smokes, AA (3-2) Much akin to the Iowa Cubs, the Tennessee Smokies had some up and down to their week. They had a few big wins against Rocket City, winning 10-5 and 12-5 while getting shut out twice. 🔥Cade Horton: 5 IP, 7K, 0 BB, 2 ER, 3 R: Cade Horton looked good and returned to form. Horton's biggest flaw is that he just trusts his fastball too often at times, but he's still dominating AA hitters like he did in lower levels. He's special. 🔥B.J. Murray: 177 wRC+, 9.5 K%, 4.8% BB%, 1 HR, 2 2B: Another week, and another BJ Murray heater. Murray continues to destroy baseballs in Tennessee and may earn a call-up to Iowa at this rate. 🥶Owen Caissie: 28 wRC+, 50% K%, 13.6 BB%: He was bound to come back to earth someone, and the week of the 15th is the week it happened. Players ebb and weave through the year without reading too much into it. Instead, let's hope it's a blip and the K% isn't a sign of things to come for the rest of the season. 🥶Kohl Franklin: 4.2 IP, 7 K, 2 BB, 9 R, 8 ER: Up and down week, but the overall numbers give him the "Not" designation for me. He had two starts this week; the better of the two saw Kohl Franklin go four innings with six strikeouts to only a single walk, but his start on the 15th was the death knell in the week. It was that start in which Kohl Franklin didn't even make it out of the first, surrendering nine runs. South Bend Cubs, High A (1-5) Not great, Bob, as the South Bend Cubs drop 5 of 6 to the West Michigan Whitecaps on the road. It took South Bend all the way until Saturday to come how with a victory, but it couldn't keep the good times rolling on Sunday, getting shut out to end the week. 🔥Matt Shaw: 107 wRC+, 14.7 K%, 3.4 BB%, 1 2b: On top of the advanced data, Matt Shaw hit a whopping .346 on the week, and it's hard to keep him off this list with that kind of a line. He's just too good for high-A. His aggressive approach can't get him in trouble when he's this much better than everyone. Hopefully, he'll see AA shortly. 🔥Moises Ballesteros: 156 wRC+, 29.4 K%, 0 BB%, 2 HR: Okay, the K: BB ratio isn't perfect, but Moises Ballesteros is beginning to turn those doubles into home runs, and that's what I really care about. As "Mo" turns on the power, he becomes more and more fun, regardless of whatever position he lands in. 🥶Michael Arias: 3.1 IP, 3 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The transition to South Bend hasn't been easy for Michael Arias, and he's continuing his inability to work deep into games or throw strikes consistently. Arias was at 76 pitches in the third inning, and only slightly half were thrown for strikes. 🥶Kevin Alcantara: -53 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 5.3 BB%: Welcome back Kevin! A cold week was probably expected as he returned from the IL to South Bend in his first full week back. Fingers crossed, he knocks off the rust, and July Alcantara returns. 🥶Ed Howard: -100 wRC+, 6.7 K%, 0 BB%: Ed didn't record a hit all week. Taking our personal draft opinions out of the equation, no one wants to see anyone struggle as Ed has since returning from his devastating hip injury. The lack of explosiveness is currently alarming, and I'm not sure it's returning. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low A (3-3) Another Cubs affiliate and another 3-3 record. Myrtle Beach's week was end-capped with their best and worst performances, winning 11-9 over Kannapolis to start the week and then being unceremoniously destroyed 16-1 to close the week out. 🔥Jackson Ferris: 5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Another start and another banger for Jackson Ferris in Myrtle Beach. For a prep arm, his season has gone literally as well as you could have asked; he's managed to limit the walks and rack up the strikeouts. No health issues are the icing on the cake. The 2022 draft already looks awesome. 🔥Jefferson Rojas: 190 wRC+, 13 K%, 4 BB%, 2 HR, 1 2b: Now sporting a shining 118 wRC+, Jefferson Rojas is among the biggest breakout prospects of his IFA class. He's starting to hit home runs in a very pitcher-friendly environment. There's a rocket ship attached to Rojas' prospect rankings. 🔥Brian Kalmer: 206 wRC+, 29.6% K%, 7.4 % BB%, 2 HR, 1 2b, 1 3b: The strikeout rate Brian Kalmer is showing isn't really great, but he's absolutely hitting rockets right now. He's overaged and over-experienced for Myrtle Beach, being a 23-year-old out of Gonzaga, but he's been a fun find. 🥶Luis Rujano: 3.2 IP, 1 K, 1 BB, 4 R, 2 ER: Not a great outing for Luis Rujano this week. He didn't get his normal swing and miss. While his defense let him down a bit, this certainly wasn't his best start. 🥶Cristian Hernandez: 41 wRC, 23.8% K%, 4.8 BB%, 1 2b: Cristian Hernandez has been showing some signs of life, and while the overall week wasn't great, he had a good day Sunday, with a couple of hits, including his double. He's showing better barrel control as of late, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a strong finish. Was there someone I missed? Who was your hitter of the week? Do you think Pete Crow-Armstrong should be in Chicago? Let me know in the comments section. View full article

Who’s hot and who’s not? Which 2023 draftees got off to a torrid start? Which 2022 draftee struggled with bad luck? Find out in our latest weekly recap of the Cubs farm system. Image courtesy of Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK (photo of Alexander Canario) Iowa Cubs, AAA (5-0) A great week on the road for the Iowa Cubs, who went undefeated against Omaha on the road. Offensively, the Iowa Cubs scored no less than seven runs in any game, punctuated by a 20-1 victory on Wednesday. Matt Mervis hit three home runs on his own en route to a 189 wRC+ for the week, though Mervis did strike out a little under 30% of the time. Alexander Canario seems to be turning a corner health-wise, as he hit .368, with a 162 wRC+, though, like Mervis struck out a ton, at 38.1%. Hopefully, the strong week at the plate, strikeouts be damned, signals good things for the future. The star of the week was Pete Crow-Armstrong; with four extra-base hits, two of them home runs, a .400 average, and a sub-20 % K%, PCA can adjust to the rigors of AAA life. Rounding out the notable prospects, Yonathon Perlaza had a sub-100 wRC+ but hit two home runs on his own. Brennen Davis was spotted in the Arizona Complex by Rich Biesterfield, and it seems like he’s on a path to return. On the mound, Shane Greene continued his comeback tour, throwing three scoreless, with three strikeouts. In due time, the Cubs will likely give Greene MLB innings as a veteran arm in the bullpen. Continuing the bullpen theme, Luke Little struck out three in three innings, more importantly, walking none. Continuing the bullpen theme, newly demoted Anthony Kay struck out a whopping seven hitters over 3 1/3rd innings without allowing a single base runner. Jordan Wicks also continued strong play in Iowa, striking out five in five innings pitched, walking only one. Lastly, Ben Brown remains out of action but, with luck, will also return shortly. Tennessee Smokies, AA (4-2) Another good week for the Smokies, finishing with four wins in six tries against the Biloxi Shuckers. Owen Caissie remains a man possessed, hitting over .400, with four extra-base hits, and continues to keep his K% in acceptable ranges, striking out five times over the course of the week. His exit velocity on the season would rank him 15th in the entire MLB, and he’s doing it as one of the youngest players at his level. B.J. Murray Jr had a big week, hitting a pair of home runs while finishing the week with a wRC+ over 200. On the opposite end, McGeary would appear to be scuffling lately with a .143 batting average but has kept his K% below 9% over that time and seems to be having just a little spell of bad luck. Catcher Pablo Aliendo had a decent week, hitting a home run, but only has four walks over his last 70 PAs, and all four walks came in just two of those games. On the bump, Cade Horton had one of his weaker starts, lasting four innings, giving up three runs (two earned) and striking out only a pair. In his defense (or maybe not, if you watched the game), Jordan Nwogu and Cole Roederer misplayed back-to-back balls, and a few dink-hits were the cause of those runs. Kohl Franklin, however, had a nice game, throwing five innings, and allowing no runs, while striking out three and walking only two. Since the calendar ticked over to July, Franklin has an era of 2.02, so there seems to be some progress occurring. Wrapping up the name worthy Smokies, Brandon Birdsell went five, allowing two runs; Hodge struck out three in a single two-inning stint while allowing no runs, and Scott Kobos struck out a pair without surrendering any runs. South Bend Cubs, High A (1-3) South Bend had to battle themselves and rain this week, losing multiple games due to weather. When they did play, they struggled, dropping all but one. Matt Shaw was a bright spot, hitting his first two South Bend home runs, which were opposite-field line drives. He’s just not being challenged here, evidenced by his roughly 15% K% and his 5% walk rate, and I expect he will be moved to Tennessee before the season ends. Moises Ballesteros just kept hitting, as he hit two home runs and finished with a wRC+ just south of 200 for the week. It’s nice to see Mo turn doubles into home runs, finally. Josh Rivera, a third-round selection from 2023, struggled, getting no hits this week versus six strikeouts. As did James Triantos, striking out an uncharacteristic five times, posting a 41 wRC+. Kevin Alcantara returned to the ACL and should shortly rejoin the South Bend Cubs from a lower leg injury that cost him a month. Michael Arias continued to struggle with his promotion to A+, walking four, giving up five hits, and four wins in under three innings pitched. It’d be easy to worry about Arias, but we have to remember he’s a kid who’s only recently started pitching, and these struggles, while not ideal, are good for development. He’s a raw pitching prospect still. In some positive news, Brady McCullough struck out six in five innings pitched on Tuesday, marking his best start yet in South Bend. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low A (5-1) Hosting Fayetteville, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans took five of the six games in the set with a handful of dominating wins. Cristian Hernandez, who hasn’t had the eye-popping season many wanted, had a great week, hitting .300 while only striking out four times. The physical tools are there, but he’s still learning to channel them. Few steps forward this week, which will hopefully have a strong finish. 2023 draft pick Jonathon Long hit his first two professional home runs, though these were his only hits of the week. Jefferson Rojas hit a pretty empty .263, striking out eight times, walking none, and having no extra-base hits. With that said, he’s still so damn young that an empty .268 is still impressive in my book. One of the more impressive debuts from recent draftees has been Brian Kalmer, an 18th-round selection who hit two more home runs and had a wRC+ near 150 for the week. Jackson Ferris is the most notable arm at Myrtle Beach, and somewhat mirroring 2022 draftee Cade Horton, they had an up-and-down appearance, going four innings, K’ing three, and walking three. Drew Gray couldn’t make it out of the first inning in his start, walking five, surrendering three runs, and getting all of two outs. Gray hit his max-inning pitch limit and was pulled. Positive developments continue for Luis Rujano, however, as he has back-to-back starts going four, walking only one, and this time striking out five. There’s still much to work on with control, specifically his secondary offerings, but he’s got the kind of velocity to end up a rotational arm if these things get sorted out. That wraps things up for our most recent run of games. Outside of South Bend, it was a great week for results, and most of the Cubs' top prospects had strong enough weeks, with a handful of standouts. Did I miss someone you care about? Who was your MiLB player of the week? View full article

Yeah I don't think the walks will come for a bit. Shaw's book is "hyper aggressive" and he's showing he's borderline already too good for A+. If he's going to keep doing this kind of damage here, he'll just continue to be hyper-aggressive. It's probably going to take a run of failure to really beat it out of him, not sure that's going to happen in South Bend.

Yeah, I was bummed to see them move him so quickly too. He closed last season like a bat out of hell. The Cubs have generally done a great job with identifying pitching, so I'm not sure why the quick plug there. Felt weird. They're usually pretty patient.

The 2020 draft is a weird one for the Cubs and while it's really easy to blame them, I don't think I do. Howard never really got much of a chance before a devastating hip injury that's really sucked a lot of his explosiveness (and while his first season wasn't great, there was some positive developments leading up to the injury last year). I'm not sure that's one to blame. I know a lot of people didn't like the pick, but a lot of people didn't like Cade Horton, either, so I think we have to be real about taking our personal feelings out. The Cubs liked Howard and I'm not sure he ever got a chance to show why. Carraway? Yeah that one sucks. Nwogu was a 3rd round pick, you can't expect much. And they did all of this without a season to evaluate players and with extremely limited scouting as the Cubs and every other team slashed the hell out of scouting budgets. It was Kantrovitz's first draft with the Cubs. That is such a hard task and entirely unprecedented. I really cannot imagine a harder draft to nail. On the other hand, the Cubs successfully both nabbed PCA and Caissie from other organizations before they ever did anything (6 games for PCA, 0 for Caissie) once they had the scouting budget back and have done a great job building those guys up and both were 2020 draftees. They also found Luke Little in the 4th who looks like he'll at least make an MLB debut, and Matt Mervis via UDFA. Scott Kobos is another one who could make MLB appearances as an UDFA, and who knows, when Ben Leeper returns from injuries he could find his way into an MLB bullpen. All in all, 2020 was really good for the Cubs, they just didn't hit on their top picks. Weird draft to evaluate all around all things considered. Overall, I chalk it up to something impossible to blame anyone for.

Hodge wasn't really a top-10 guy. That said, I said he was my pick for breakout arm of the season...sadly it hasn't happened. "Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue", this time, statue. Still think there's solid hope for him as an MLB arm, but he's got some stuff he's got to work on and clean up to get there. Setback season for him.

If there's one thing I've got confidence in right now is that the Cubs pitching development is at least headed in the right direction. The 2022 draft has been absolutely awesome so far pitching wise, and we still really haven't seen some of the really fun guys either on the mound (Wheat, Mule) or outside of Arizona (McGuire). I love the current direction.

Back in the '80s, if a pitcher threw 94 mph, he was considered a "flamethrower." Now, if a pitcher hits 94 mph, that's average in the big leagues. The game has changed. The Cubs have made changes in an attempt to catch up, and early signs are that it is going well. Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The word “revolution” gets thrown out a bit too often, and we’re all guilty of using it in hyperbolic ways. Let’s be real. Those chicken wings you had last night were good, but they didn’t revolutionize appetizers. However, pitching over the course of the last decade has truly been going through a data revolution in a way we’ve never seen. Some teams have done a better job of being on the forefront of that revolution and others, a much worse job. While teams like the Astros and the Dodgers have been on the forefront of spin rates and building velocity, the Chicago Cubs have lagged well behind. Things finally began to change in 2019 for the Cubs with the hiring of Craig Breslow (a graduate of Yale with a degree in biochemistry and molecular biology. he has earned the nickname “The Smartest Man in Baseball”). They have taken it even further by bringing in Dan Kantrovitz from Oakland and Carter Hawkins from Cleveland. These three have been instrumental in the changes we’ve seen as an organization, top to bottom, and the proof is in the pudding. Now, in the year 2023, the Cubs have gone from an organization which was arguably behind in pitching and pitcher development to being a team on the forefront of it. This article was inspired by a short tweet from Lance Brozdowski. If you’re not following Lance online and on his substack, please do. He’s the absolute best when it comes to pitch data analysis online, and I am smarter for reading his articles daily. Anyway, his tweet showed the average fastball velocity of MiLB systems thus far in 2023, and the results are good. While it’s not surprising to see the Dodgers leading minor league baseball in average velocity, it is shocking to see the Cubs nipping at their heels in second place with an average fastball of 92.9mph. This is a huge departure from the organizational philosophy we’ve seen post-World Series from the Cubs. Using fangraphs, and sorting by average fastball from 2017-2022, the Chicago Cubs ranked 28th in average fastball velocity in baseball over that time span. If you sort from just a starting pitching perspective, the Chicago Cubs finished dead last in the MLB; that’s… not ideal. There’s more to pitching than pure velocity, and pitchers like Kyle Hendricks are going to lower that, but it’s also indicative of the issues the Cubs have had in terms of identifying the type of high-end starting pitching they’ve been lacking. It’s been a slow change, and it’s not one that has paid immediate results. Prior to 2019, the Cubs drafted many pitchers (Brandon Little, Alex Lange, Bryan Hudson, Thomas Hatch as examples) who were not velocity-merchants in any way. Instead, they targeted pitchers like Quintana (averaged around 92 mph in 2018) in trades, who also were not tipping the scale in terms of velocity. In 2019, we can see a small shift. The Cubs drafted Ryan Jensen out of Fresno State whose fastball sat between 95 and 98 mph and tried to create a starting pitcher out of him. They did the same with their third-round selection of Michael McAvene who hit 100 mph in college at Louisville. DJ Herz had a "projectable body" and was reportedly hitting 95 mph in high school in North Carolina when the Tigers drafted him in the eighth round in 2019. Sadly, it hasn't really worked out. Jensen was DFA’d and one is left to wonder if this philosophical change had happened sooner, maybe Jensen's career would have had a different trajectory. Herz had not shown an ability to add velocity to his game pre-trade, and McAvene got hurt. 2020 saw the Cubs draft both Burl Carraway and Luke Little, relievers who had fastballs in the upper 90’s, with mixed results. The Cubs took Carraway out of Dallas Baptist thinking he and his left arm could be in Wrigley quickly. Instead, he has fought the yips and injuries and hasn't pitched since early in 2022. He has been a pure bust. Little was drafted out of San Jacinto College and has taken big strikes this season. He recently moved up to Iowa and may make appearances in Chicago this summer. In 2022, the first draft run by all three (Breslow, Kantrovitz and Hawkins), the Cubs finally went all in with a draft completely highlighted by velocity; Cade Horton, Jackson Ferris, Nazier Mule. Brody McCullough, Luis Rujano, and Shane Marshall all had one thing in common... they were arms who could hit numbers on the radar gun that would make you drool. It was also punctuated by trades for pitchers like Ben Brown, Daniel Palencia, and Caleb Killian, all three of whom hit 95+ regularly. The 2023 draft once again saw the Cubs go back to the well. They selected Jaxon Wiggins in the second round. He showed a fastball that hit 99mph prior to need his Tommy John surgery. Perhaps the ultimate “velocity upside pick”, taking Daniel Brown in the 16th round; a left-handed relief pitcher capable of hitting 100 mph, but who also hit or walked most of the hitters he faced in an abbreviated 2023 season. These aren’t all the names, just a cross-section, but the infusion of velocity into the Cubs system is certainly not an accident and is definitively purposeful. How the Cubs handle the development of their arms, I feel, is important to the equation as well. From my perspective, the Cubs have taken a strong look at how the Dodgers develop pitchers and have either borrowed, or copied some of their practices. No team is more conservative in terms of pitch counting, and how they bring up their prospects than LA. They have not only implemented inning restrictions for the starters, but max-pitch-count in an inning for all pitchers. The Dodgers also enjoy taking starting pitching prospects, and first implementing them through their major-league bullpen, before they transition to the rotation when injuries or spaces open up instead of just handing them rotation spots. The Cubs have certainly mirrored the innings and the pitch-count thing, and we’re seeing the second beginning to occur with pitchers like Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Caleb Killian. This will likely continue to help develop velocity, but also keeps arms safe. On top of this, the Cubs ability to implement their pitch lab has seen a consistent growth in terms of velocity gains system-wide (punctuated now by being the second-best system in terms of velocity). The Cubs have become one of the go-to organizations in terms of maximizing pitcher velocity. Their weakness has become their strength. Where the club goes from here is obviously uncertain, but I think we’re past the days of the Cubs being far behind on the velocity curve. Daniel Palencia and Caleb Killian are already on the MLB roster, Ben Brown and Luke Little will challenge for relief innings between today and the rest of the year. Cade Horton is leaving a trail of hitters behind him as he carves his way through the minors (and on this pace is likely ticketed for the big leagues sometime next season), Jackson Ferris is having great success, and there’s more behind that. Just this season, the Cubs are already up to seventh in the major leagues in relief pitcher average fastball velocity (up from 19th from the former sample size), and will likely see their velocity across the board increase as the velocity we see in the minors make their way to the majors. As always, we can’t consider velocity to be a silver bullet. Instead, it’s only one piece of the puzzle (spin rate, pitch mix, seam-shifted wake, all of these things matter just as much). With that said, it’s impossible to not be encouraged to see the Cubs flip from a team who didn’t have the word “velocity” in their vocabulary just a few years ago, turn into the velocity developmental team. View full article

At least for me, the season, regardless of outcome, is a success in one aspect; I'm actively excited about where the organization is going. Dansby Swanson has been better than I expected (I was fearful of chase rates and in ability to hit much other than fastballs), Cody Bellinger has been a really nice addition and better than I expected, while I've always been a fan of the 2022 draft, it's been even better than I could imagine so far, and the system as a whole has really been banging on most cylinders. Perfect season in that regards? No, but there's enough optimism in me to be excited that a strong offseason, a few prospect graduations, and the like have me thinking the team is finally pointing upwards versus neutral for once. There seems to be some feeling of optimism that the team will retain Bellinger (and we can debate his batted ball profile and his contract value another time). For me, long term outlook will always trump short term (barring a WS, of course) so I think in that regards 2023 is a success, the short term, 2023-season-in-a-vacuum success is debatable yet. It'd be really fun to make the playoffs, but the overall health of the Cubs seems better than it's been for a while.