Jason Ross

Man, maybe I should start talking horsefeathers about Michael McAvene and Casey Opitz. HoF here they come!

Of course I horsefeathers talk Canario again and all he does is have 3 hits and a monster home run. Maybe I'm an idiot.

Dude, that's terrible. I run the worst team in Lexington, and we have some guys who I question if they have ever seen a baseball, but they're good guys. I make sure everyone plays. Sucks that happened. Baseball should be fun even if you're out of your depth.

MSBL! Excellent. We were affiliated with MSBL for years (though recently dropped the affiliation to save some money). Still do some tournaments around the midwest.

I run the adult baseball league in my city, and still play. We have a few former D-1 athletes in our league, a few who were drafted, and someone who has 4 service years in the MLB (including pitching in the playoffs). I've been hit with 90+mph before. I wear a c-flap, I have an elbow guard, and a shin pad. Getting hit with baseballs hurts, man. Guys who get hit 20+ times a season with 90+mph are tough dudes. I am not a tough dude.

Yeah, that's a good counter point. I'm still on team "let Canario feast in AAA" but there's an argument for him being a useful platoon bench bat for sure.

For me, it'd be less about the overall line and more about making the adjustments necessary to get the best version of Suzuki. We know he's got a great eye, and he's essentially mirrored last year's line (granted the wRC+ is lower but that's due to league data). 2022: .262/.336/.433 24.7% K%, 9.4% BB%, .171 ISO 2023: .263/.335/.427 23.9% K%, 9.8$ BB%, 164 ISO What's exciting is his more attacking and aggressive nature recently. If he can use his discerning eye in tough counts, but use his considerable ability to hit the baseball (evidenced by his batted ball data) to begin to crush mistake pitches early in the counts and become the best version of Seiya for August and September, I'll consider that a success because that'll really set him up for success next year to not just be a good player, but potentially a borderline very good player. The best version of Suzuki entering the playoffs, as well, would be a huge gain for the Cubs lineup.

Canario is struggling. He's got some big power, but the swing and the miss issues he seemingly remedied last year have come charging back. I'm not writing him off, but I'm not bringing him up right now, either. PCA is a definite yes, and they already have a 4 man shuffling OF in Bellinger-Suzuki-Happ-Tauchman. Canario needs PA's in AAA to make up for missed time. Maybe later in September when Iowa is done, but I want him playing as much as possible right now.

I should horsefeathers talk guys more often. Mervis, Canario and Ed Howard all had baller games tonight on the heels of me calling them cold.

Well, horsefeathers. Score 6, you should win most times.

I've watched a ton of Jordan Wicks over the last two years...partly because I went into draft-day-2021 with a pretty strong "Don't draft Wicks" mantra (in my defense I wanted Sal Frelick to fall, or the Cubs to go with Montgomery, both who would have been winners, but I digress) and I just needed to "get it" because I just didn't draft night. My best thing I can say is this: Jordan Wicks reminds me of Jon Lester in so many ways; the way they act on the mound, the way they attack hitters, the lack of anything that's "overpowering"... I don't think he is Jon Lester and it's pretty unlikely he'll have that type of a career...but Jordan Wicks has that kind of vibe to me. It's super subjective, and I don't like being subjective like that...but Wicks won me over. I have a pretty sneaking suspicion he's going to do that to a lot of people when he gets here.

Cuas. Strikes, maybe?

A 22% K% is pretty good though, especially if we're talking about a high GB% pitcher. I want to be very careful with this, because I'm not saying Wicks=Stroman at all, but Marcus Stroman posted a 20% K% with the Chicago Cubs this year, but because he was really good at using our infield, was having a great season prior to injury. Should we expect Wicks to dip below 22% K% at the MLB, especially initially? Yeah sure, he's entering the league and that's a fair expectation and it's likely to occur. But being a ground ball merchant like Wicks' should be with a fastball (with good vertical movement), a changeup and a curveball can really bring that K% into line. Historically he's always had good control, and we can probably expect most of that to translate. Wicks doesn't need to strike out 9+ to be effective. I'm not saying he's a stud, but there's a guy there. Honestly, I think he's the most underrated arm in the system today. Outside of the changeup nothing stands out, but he's just effective. He's a "sum of all the parts" kind of guy to me. I think people will be surprised when he comes up with how effective he is. I also hesitate to worry about pitch counts. The Cubs are essentially the clubhouse leader in being careful with MiLB arms league wide. I would expect the Cubs to probably have him around an 80-90 pitch watch in his first start or two, and build from there, but I also think Wicks is capable of more and that a decent amount of this is the Cubs MiLB mandate of watching over their arms. I'm not worried about it being a playoff chase right now because the reality is, that's just what it is. I'm worried about the guy I'd trust the most to get the Cubs into the 5th inning in a pretty safe place. It's not Smyly. It's not Killian. Wesneski can't get LHH out. So give me the guy who throws strikes, and gets ground balls and has some upside. It may end up being a damned if you do, damned if you don't regardless, but I'd still go Wicks if I had a pick.

Damn.

Damn, thought that was going to be 2.

Yeah, when he's throwing strikes Palencia is a blast. Just a little more consistency and he'll be a real weapon.

I would, again, disagree that he hasn't been that good and think he's actually looked really great at times, especially over his last few starts. He striking out about a hitter per inning, and his swinging strike has been going up. Over his last 19 IP, he's got a K% of 22%, which is pretty good. The fastball has some really good movement to it (mitigating the velocity a bit) and his changeup is a legit plus-plus pitch. Then add in the high number of GB's for a Cubs defense who is among the very best in baseball when it comes to ground balls, and I think it's a pretty good combination. I'll remain on record; Jordan Wicks is where I'd go if I needed 4 solid innings at the MLB level. I wouldn't count on him to get much more, maybe a 5th, but I wouldn't count on Wesneski, Killian or Smyly to get me more than 4 either. The 6 day rest thing isn't great right now, and I'd buy that being a bit of a speed bump, so I'll concede on that point.

"Barely viable in AAA" is pretty harsh for someone who's striking out just under a hitter per inning, has a GB% nearing 50% and has a HR/FB% under 10.

I would disagree. I like Wesneski still long term, but he simply cannot get LHH right now and has shown it consistently. He needs to develop a LHH out-pitch or he's a BP arm. Killian just isn't an MLB starter, IMO and I don't say that lightly. I really liked him entering last year, but his inability to develop any sort of chase pitch is a pretty decent death knell. The velo returning is nice, but I just don't see it. Wicks has the changeup, he throws strikes, and he'll get ground balls. I don't think he's going to be a revelation at first, but I think he can be a stabilizing force in the sense of I'd trust him a bit more to make it 4 solid innings. I'd order it: 1) Wicks, 2) Wesneski and 3) Killian. I think Wicks is a pretty slept on arm.

Great job by Wes to get out of that.

Getting Wicks to start tonight probably would have been a difficult task with his rotation spots in Iowa. But they have plenty of time between tonight and Smyly's next turn to get that in order. Wicks is the pitcher I'd go with here. His changeup is a great pitch, he's going to get ground balls, throws a lot of strikes and he's got a real good mentality on the mound. The Cubs should be working on figuring that out tonight. They don't even had a full 40-man currently. Get Wicks on the 40, I wouldn't expect him to be a star right out of the gate, and probably never, but there's a pretty good arm there. He's got as much upside as anyone they could put in there.

The Cubs have generally done a good job identifying pitching over the last few years. They've crushed it in the BP. But man, I have no idea why they resigned Smyly to a 2 year contract.

Jordan Wicks. please.

It's time for another week of "Hot or Not" down on the farm. Did Owen Caissie continue to murder baseballs like he had a personal vendetta against them? Did Kevin Alcantara's return go according to plan? How many strikeouts did Cade Horton have? Find out in our weekly recap. Image courtesy of © Greg Swiercz / USA TODAY NETWORK Iowa Cubs, AAA (3-3) Up and down week, the Iowa Cubs, with runs a plenty (both scored and surrendered), with the lowest scoring game of the week at 5-3, and only going up from there. 🔥 Jordan Wicks: 4.2 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: I think this could be Jordan Wicks' last start in AAA. He gave up a few two-out hits, which led to his runs, but overall, he looked great. To add to his excellent start, he actually had an 8th strikeout nullified with a catcher's interference 🔥 Pete Crow-Armstrong: 130 wRC+, 13.8 K%, 6.9% BB%, 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 3B: Ho-hum? At this point, we can probably copy and paste Pete Crow-Armstrong into the "hot" section weekly. Like Jordan Wicks, there's probably a call-up in store for PCA in the near future. 🔥 Yonathan Perlaza: 164 wRC+, 28.6% K%, 10.7% BB%, 1 HR, 4 2B: Nice bounce back for Yonathan Peralaza. The K% is a bit high, but the 164 wRC+ and the four doubles are excellent. Peralaza is still fighting to be selected for the Rule V draft at the end of the season, and these kinds of weeks will go a long way in making that choice difficult. 🔥 Luis Vazquez: 146 wRC+, 10% K%, 15% BB%, 1 HR: I think maybe I should care a bit more about Luis Vazquez than I have. He hasn't stopped hitting regardless of his level; he's got a 60-grade glove at SS...why am I complaining? He's certainly a pop-up prospect, but I'm getting on board with him being a squarely top-20 prospect in the system. 🥶Matt Mervis: 107 wRC+, 39.3% K%, 10.7% BB%, 1 HR, 2 2B: Anytime you strike out nearly 40% of the time, you're a candidate for the cold list. As a 1b, you have to be better than this, so despite the 107 wRC+, I'm going to knock him for a somewhat poor week. 🥶Alexander Canario: 66 wRC+, 34.8% K%, 4.3 BB%, 1 HR, 2 2B: Well, the power is there, but the plate discipline and swing and miss from earlier in his career has returned with a vengeance. Alexander Canario got on the prospect map last year because of the swing changes that helped him overcome his downfalls, but we're seeing those pop back up. Hopefully, it's more rust than anything. Tennessee Smokes, AA (3-2) Much akin to the Iowa Cubs, the Tennessee Smokies had some up and down to their week. They had a few big wins against Rocket City, winning 10-5 and 12-5 while getting shut out twice. 🔥Cade Horton: 5 IP, 7K, 0 BB, 2 ER, 3 R: Cade Horton looked good and returned to form. Horton's biggest flaw is that he just trusts his fastball too often at times, but he's still dominating AA hitters like he did in lower levels. He's special. 🔥B.J. Murray: 177 wRC+, 9.5 K%, 4.8% BB%, 1 HR, 2 2B: Another week, and another BJ Murray heater. Murray continues to destroy baseballs in Tennessee and may earn a call-up to Iowa at this rate. 🥶Owen Caissie: 28 wRC+, 50% K%, 13.6 BB%: He was bound to come back to earth someone, and the week of the 15th is the week it happened. Players ebb and weave through the year without reading too much into it. Instead, let's hope it's a blip and the K% isn't a sign of things to come for the rest of the season. 🥶Kohl Franklin: 4.2 IP, 7 K, 2 BB, 9 R, 8 ER: Up and down week, but the overall numbers give him the "Not" designation for me. He had two starts this week; the better of the two saw Kohl Franklin go four innings with six strikeouts to only a single walk, but his start on the 15th was the death knell in the week. It was that start in which Kohl Franklin didn't even make it out of the first, surrendering nine runs. South Bend Cubs, High A (1-5) Not great, Bob, as the South Bend Cubs drop 5 of 6 to the West Michigan Whitecaps on the road. It took South Bend all the way until Saturday to come how with a victory, but it couldn't keep the good times rolling on Sunday, getting shut out to end the week. 🔥Matt Shaw: 107 wRC+, 14.7 K%, 3.4 BB%, 1 2b: On top of the advanced data, Matt Shaw hit a whopping .346 on the week, and it's hard to keep him off this list with that kind of a line. He's just too good for high-A. His aggressive approach can't get him in trouble when he's this much better than everyone. Hopefully, he'll see AA shortly. 🔥Moises Ballesteros: 156 wRC+, 29.4 K%, 0 BB%, 2 HR: Okay, the K: BB ratio isn't perfect, but Moises Ballesteros is beginning to turn those doubles into home runs, and that's what I really care about. As "Mo" turns on the power, he becomes more and more fun, regardless of whatever position he lands in. 🥶Michael Arias: 3.1 IP, 3 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The transition to South Bend hasn't been easy for Michael Arias, and he's continuing his inability to work deep into games or throw strikes consistently. Arias was at 76 pitches in the third inning, and only slightly half were thrown for strikes. 🥶Kevin Alcantara: -53 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 5.3 BB%: Welcome back Kevin! A cold week was probably expected as he returned from the IL to South Bend in his first full week back. Fingers crossed, he knocks off the rust, and July Alcantara returns. 🥶Ed Howard: -100 wRC+, 6.7 K%, 0 BB%: Ed didn't record a hit all week. Taking our personal draft opinions out of the equation, no one wants to see anyone struggle as Ed has since returning from his devastating hip injury. The lack of explosiveness is currently alarming, and I'm not sure it's returning. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low A (3-3) Another Cubs affiliate and another 3-3 record. Myrtle Beach's week was end-capped with their best and worst performances, winning 11-9 over Kannapolis to start the week and then being unceremoniously destroyed 16-1 to close the week out. 🔥Jackson Ferris: 5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Another start and another banger for Jackson Ferris in Myrtle Beach. For a prep arm, his season has gone literally as well as you could have asked; he's managed to limit the walks and rack up the strikeouts. No health issues are the icing on the cake. The 2022 draft already looks awesome. 🔥Jefferson Rojas: 190 wRC+, 13 K%, 4 BB%, 2 HR, 1 2b: Now sporting a shining 118 wRC+, Jefferson Rojas is among the biggest breakout prospects of his IFA class. He's starting to hit home runs in a very pitcher-friendly environment. There's a rocket ship attached to Rojas' prospect rankings. 🔥Brian Kalmer: 206 wRC+, 29.6% K%, 7.4 % BB%, 2 HR, 1 2b, 1 3b: The strikeout rate Brian Kalmer is showing isn't really great, but he's absolutely hitting rockets right now. He's overaged and over-experienced for Myrtle Beach, being a 23-year-old out of Gonzaga, but he's been a fun find. 🥶Luis Rujano: 3.2 IP, 1 K, 1 BB, 4 R, 2 ER: Not a great outing for Luis Rujano this week. He didn't get his normal swing and miss. While his defense let him down a bit, this certainly wasn't his best start. 🥶Cristian Hernandez: 41 wRC, 23.8% K%, 4.8 BB%, 1 2b: Cristian Hernandez has been showing some signs of life, and while the overall week wasn't great, he had a good day Sunday, with a couple of hits, including his double. He's showing better barrel control as of late, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a strong finish. Was there someone I missed? Who was your hitter of the week? Do you think Pete Crow-Armstrong should be in Chicago? Let me know in the comments section. View full article