Jason Ross

Outsider's perspective: I think things work pretty well. I like that the game threads are connected to the main forum, myself. It means I don't have to have a handful of extra clicks; I can check the game thread then immediately look under to go into an article or roster-construction question. That's more similar to how things worked at PSD, so that's probably where that's coming from, but either way, I appreciate that. Conversation has been good too! Again, as a newer member, the levels of discussion are really similar to where we were at on PSD when we had a lot of active members. People are happy when things are good and melt down when they're not. God forbid the Cubs lose a three game set to a mediocre team; then it was death-watch city. We had a few bumps, and we jettisoned the biggest offender, but I've been having a good time here with everyone. Feel less like an outsider/new person and more integrated for sure.

Kyle Schwarber's approach hasn't really changed, though. His swing% in 2015 in 0-0 counts was 29% compared to a little over 27% now. He was equally as pull heavy then as now. He did swing less in general in 2023 to 2015, but the change in swing rate seems to be mostly laying off the super-high stuff. It's refined but he still has a generally similar approach to hitting. A good reminder as well, 2015 was the same season that Schwarber played in Double-A, it's quite unlikely his approach is vastly different over the course of the season, even at different levels. Secondly, I think we need to remember that Owen Caissie was playing in some different conditions at Double-A. First, he's a whole two years younger than Kyle Schwarber and didn't have the benefit of power-five college baseball. As well, Owen Caissie dealt with a baseball experiment in the first half of his Double-A experience, a baseball that has been since removed. Looking at his TTO, he had 30 singles, 15 doubles, 1 triple over his last 50, non-pre-tacked baseball games. Schwarber had 58 games in Double-A in which he posted 39 hits, 10 doubles, and one triple. Caissie hit just about as many non walks-home runs-K's as Schwarber in a smaller sample size and at a different age-gap to the league. I think that context matters. Lastly, what a player's "calling card" is kind of hard to determine. We often think one thing, but data doesn't always bear that out. While I appreciate that in 2015 we thought Kris Bryant hit a lot of opposite field stuff in the minors, I cannot prove or disprove that. What I can do is look at consistent data from Caissie and Schwarber. Even in 2015, Schwarber was pull-only. Caissie has yet to show a spray chart that looks the same. In the end, you're free to have your own opinion, but again, I don't see anything to suggest a comparison. Caissie doesn't do things the way Schwarber does. He doesn't do things the way Schwarber did in 2015, and the way Schwarber does things in 2023 (last full season) isn't very different from 2015. Maybe Caissie will change his approach...we're looking a month of statcast data for him...but if the argument that maybe Caissie will change is the basis for why they're being compared...that feels spurious at best.

No. Not in my estimation. It feels like an easy comparison of "OF'er who hits the ball hard" but I think they do things differently. I think Caissie has less three-outcome-potential and I like the progress he's made with his hit tool over the years. Caissie swings more than Schwarber and that's been a big point of emphasis for him; swing more, don't find yourself in bad counts early because you're too patient. Keep in mind we're talking Triple-A data here, but Caissie is swinging at 42% of pitches against RHP. Compare that to Schwarber last year who was at 37%. Caissie also swings earlier in the count: 37% on 0-0 pitches where as Schwarber, last year was at 23%. Caissie also uses the field a lot better in general. I've got Caissie's 2024 hit chart below and Schwarber's 2023. Schwarbs is pull or nothing, where as Caissie has always been someone who isn't as pull heavy. Not to say I wouldn't like to see Caissie pull the ball a but more, but I think the way they go about hitting is quite stark, and even with just a month of statcast Caissie data, you can see that they approach things differently. Caissie isn't elevating the ball right now in Triple-A, but I think part of that has been how he's been pitched; pitchers are only now coming inside on him, so hopefully that'll change. Lastly, I think they are different monsters defensively. Caissie is far more natural in the OF than Schwarber is/was. Caissie has some real athleticism to him out there, and a 60+ grade arm in RF. In the end, I wouldn't compare the too very directly.

Good for Cade. He's an injury away from Chicago now. He's arguably ready today.

So, there does seem to be some changes under the hood, while also some changes that we're seeing in results. For example, Tauchman is swinging 5% more and chasing 3% more. He's actually pulling the ball less (which is weird because the power is spiking and normally those things go hand in hand). The big change is a 10% increase in fly balls, which probably explains the ISO explosion. He's seeing this result in far better barrel rates and sweet-spot rates (also likely aiding the ISO explosion). Where I'd caution is this: it's generally believed that you need more than 150 PA's to be comfortable that a plate approach change has occurred and is effective with players like Tauchman who have significant data sets. I think it's likely that in same way shape or form this is the "high water mark" on the season for Mike...he's got a 169 wRC+ that just isn't going to keep regardless of what his xData suggests - I think we all know he's not a top-10 hitter in baseball. He's running a .353 BABIP, which is probably .30-.40 points high as well. So I think we have to know that the league will re-adjust in some fashion/manner and there's going to be regression; there just aren't that many 33 year olds in the history of baseball who went from a career 102 wRC+ hitter to being a top-20 guy, ya know? He's also going to go through the normal ups and downs on the season like all hitters. With that said, if these approach changes stick, there's probably good reason to believe that Tauchman will have improved his overall profile. Hitting the ball in the air is good. Improved slugging is good. Swinging a bit more in a controlled manner is good. Tauchman finished with a 107 wRC+ last year and this version looks to be an improvement over that. So if these approach changes keep, probably safe to assume a 110-115 wRC+ is on the table for Mike the rest of the way. Which is awesome for him and the Cubs.

Morel!

Smoked the horsefeathers out of that one! Tied game.

Alright, got some life here. Go get him Nick.

City connect is a blight across the league. Come to my Ted Talk next week titled "Why I'm a Uniform Crumudgeon and Why You Should Be Too".

Finger's crossed on Hendricks. If they're going to insert him back in the rotation, he just cannot be the guy who we've seen this year. I'm really rooting for him to figure it out and find it. With that said, the trend on that release point is pretty interesting and I can't really explain it, as it certainly has a downward trend. It's also interesting because he was not particularly good in 2021 but was in 2023 and they had similar release points. I can't really explain those things, so hopefully he and the Cubs can. With hope it's fixable and I'd at least like Hendricks to go out as a pretty decent rotational arm. He deserves to leave the Cubs with dignity as he's been such a good member.

In all transparency: with school still rocking and the Cubs being good, it's been hard to catch as many MiLB games right now, as I have in the past. I'll be able to give it more time in about 30 days. The bit I did see didn't appear different to my eye, but it's kind of hard to tell on the iPhone4 level of definition and crummy angles. I'd default to statcast data...but nothing yet at the Double-A has been made publicly available. Triantos did have a great week! I try to limit these to around 4-5 per level for brevity's sake, so sometimes guys just are left off. He's been really good this year, deserves the praise.

It's always good to win games at the minor-league level, but the real thing is player development. In a perfect world, player development would lead directly to wins, but sometimes, it doesn't. This week is a perfect example of losses piling up but a lot of really good performances down on the farm. Who had a good week? Image courtesy of © Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK It's always good to win games at the minor-league level, but the real thing is player development. In a perfect world, player development would lead directly to wins, but sometimes, it doesn't. This week is a perfect example of losses piling up but a lot of really good performances down on the farm. Who had a good week? Iowa Cubs (2-4) The Iowa Cubs are a shell of what they were on Opening Day. With Ben Brown, Alexander Canario, Hayden Wesneski, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Mervis all on the Chicago Cubs instead, the team is missing much of their firepower. After dropping four of six to Buffalo, Iowa heads home this week to face the Omaha Storm Chasers, looking to right the ship. Jake Slaughter, 3b: 181 wRC+. 17.4 K%, 17.4 BB%, 1 2B, 2 HR: Good week for the former LSU Tiger. Slaughter had some helium going into last year, but he struggled in Iowa. While I still wonder if he's got legitimate MLB upside, the number of injuries the Cubs have had this year should remind us we're one or two more away from seeing most of the Iowa roster right now. Slaughter has some versatility, so if he can get his bat hot, this might be his best chance to make a big-league impression. Luis Vazquez, SS: 124 wRC+, 33.3 K%, 4.8 BB%,, 3 2B: The shortstop continues to hit this season, with this week pushing his season wRC+ over 140. He does sport a .426 BABIP, but that's not always a bad thing at the minor-league level; sometimes it just suggests someone is ready for a new challenge. In another organization, Vázquez would have likely seen his shot come already, but much like Slaughter, we're probably one injury (depending on the position) away from that happening. Owen Caissie, OF: 177 wRC+, 37.5 K%, 25 BB%, 1 2B: Caissie is doing just about everything short of hitting home runs right now, but I think that's coming. The strikeout rate was a little elevated this week, but he's doing everything else well. Pitchers are finally throwing strikes to Caissie in the middle of the zone, and I expect the power surge will come with that. Keep an eye out: I think we're like a week or two away from a handful of home runs coming. Brennen Davis, OF: 123 wRC+. 31.8 K%, 22.7 BB%, 1 HR: The strikeouts are always concerning, but it's good just to see the outfielder playing right now. He's had such a bad beat when it comes to injuries. The good news is that the power seems to be there; the exit velocity on his homer was 113 MPH, which is up 4 MPH than his max in 2022. There's still a decent chance he can be something. Tennessee Smokies (3-3) Not the greatest week for Tennessee, but a much better one, too, as the Smokies split a six-game set. Most games were close, and the best news was that a few of their struggling players had nice rebounds. Tennessee is back in action at home this week against the Biloxi Shuckers. Cade Horton, SP: 5 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: I'm pretty confident this will be Horton's last start in Tennessee, and it was another dominant effort. On the season, he's striking out a hitter per inning, walking next to no one, and has given up just two runs in 16 innings. More importantly, Horton made it through five frames and threw 72 pitches. I've always had June 1 as a major checkpoint for Horton, but the progress he's made with the changeup (coupled with the injury situation) has me wondering if that will turn into May 1. This guy is probably ready today. Moises Ballesteros, C/DH: 243 wRC+, 20 K%, 15 BB%, 1 2B, 1 HR: I've done a poor job of listing Big Mo' on the hot-or-not lists this year. All he's done is rake. He's walking more and he's striking out less; he's hit three home runs. He's doing everything you can ask. He's not even 21. We give a lot of credit and hype to what Jefferson Rojas is doing (and he's deserving of that hype), but Ballesteros is just crushing baseballs. What a find he's been. Brandon Birdsell: 5 IP, 7K, 2 BB, 0R, 0ER: Much better, and perfect timing. With the depth issues that Iowa is having, seeing Birdsell (an advanced arm who's pitched in the Big 12) find some success in Tennessee is a good thing. If he can get on a mini-roll, he could quickly make his way up to Iowa. Kevin Alcantara, OF: 157 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 0 BB%, 1 2B, 2 HR: Remember when Alcántara didn't have a single hit on the year? All of a sudden, he's sporting a 111 wRC+, has seen his strikeout rate drop to 26%, and has four home runs. There are still some places to work on the Jaguar, like coaxing a few extra walks, but overall, it's been a great return to form over the last 10 days. Matt Shaw, 3b: -3 wRC+, 28 K%, 8 BB%: It's never good to see someone struggle, but Shaw getting his first test of resiliency is probably a good thing for his development. Having him work through a few bad weeks and seeing how he adjusts to the league adjusting to him will let us know a lot about who he is as a prospect. South Bend Cubs (2-4) South Bend was always going to have some hurdles to clear to start the season, and the year has kind of gone to script. They've yet to win a series. South Bend will look to turn things around this week on the road against the Lansing Lugnuts. Will Sanders, SP: 3IP, 6K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Sanders was seen as a more advanced prospect than this assignment suggested, due to pitching in the SEC, so seeing him throw well this week was a good thing. Sanders has really struggled, so it's awesome to see this kind of game for him. He could be in line to be promoted to Tennessee mid-season, and with Horton and Birdsell hopefully moving to Iowa, he would find open rotation spots. This is a good first step. Jefferson Rojas, SS: 113 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 13.6 BB%: This feels like a pretty ho-hum week, until you once again remind yourself: he turned 19 this week and is in High-A. Given that, I'd be remiss if I didn't continue to copy and paste his name into this section. Rojas has a wRC+ nearly 30% better than league average on the season, You should be pretty darn excited. Ed Howard, SS: 118 wRC+, 10 K%, 10 BB%, 3 2B: I thought we might be getting to the end of the line for the former first-round pick, but Howard strung together a strong week. He still sports a paltry 49 wRC+ on the season, but this week was a sign that maybe we can't entirely give up on him yet. None of this is to say ignore the rest of the season so far, but maybe Howard has enough left in the tank that he can become somewhat interesting again by season's end. At the very least, I owed it to Howard to highlight the best week he's had offensively in quite some time. Drew Gray: 3.1 IP, 6 K, 3 BB, 1 R, 0 ER: Drew Gray is having such an uneven season. On one hand: Gray sports a strikeout rate over 37% and has a 1.59 ERA. That's an awesome line for the lefthander--that is, until you notice the 26.4 BB%. That's 14 walks in just over 11 innings pitched. Gray simply cannot walk that many. It's early, and clearly, the stuff is there when the strikes come, so don't abandon ship or anything. Luis Devers: 2;.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 9 R, 9 ER: Yeah, that's not good. The 2022 MiLB Pitcher of the Year has struggled to recapture his form and consistency since an injury in 2023. Devers has had a few good outings, but this one was not it. Hopefully, he continues to rehab his way back into the pitcher he looked like he could be before. Myrtle Beach Pelicans (3-3) A three-win week is the best outcome the Pelicans have had all season, even if it is baby steps. The Pelicans will hope to win their first series this week, as they travel to Salem. Christopher Paciolla, 3b: 165 wRC+, 37 K%, 0 BB%, 2 2B, 1 HR: The 2022 mid-rounder is finally starting to show why the Cubs liked him coming out of high school. Yes, the strikeout-to-walk ratio is imperfect right now, but I'm willing to ignore that as he's worked his season wRC+ to over 110. Paciolla remains young and has upside. He could become a breakout type this season. Juan Bello, SP: 4 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: The walk rate on the season remains inflated, so seeing Bello control the strike zone a bit better this week was great. Still, the 20-year-old is looking like a name to monitor. A strikeout rate of 33.9% will certainly play, and he's getting 57% ground balls, as well. Cristian Hernandez, SS: 181 wRC+, 30.8 K%, 11.5 BB%, 4 2B, 1 HR: The power was the only thing missing from Hernández's encouraging start, and he flashed a ton of it this week. He's done everything right: reworked his entire swing, is making much more contact, controlling the barrel through the zone more. He's probably ticketed to South Bend shortly, as he's nearing a 150 wRC+ on the season. He needs to sustain the improvement at High-A, but this is a very promising start for a prospect whose arrow had been pointing in the wrong direction entering the year Alfonsin Roasario, OF: 109 wRC+, 50 K%, 0 BB%, 2 HR: I'm not going to be too harsh on the kid in his first few games. The strikeouts were rough, and he's likely going to have to work through that much of the year. The good news is that the power absolutely plays, as he smashed two no-doubt bombs on the week. He has all of the physical tools to be something, so while he's quite boom-or-bust, there's a lot of fun in his profile if he can put most of the tools together. Drew Bowser, 1b: 107 wRC+, 50 K%, 14.3 BB%, 1 HR: I'll be a bit harsher on Bowser, though. The wRC+, like Rosario, is buoyed by the lone home run (his first as a professional! Congrats, kid!), but it's not Bowser's first week, and Bowser played ACC baseball last year. Myrtle Beach is a tough place to hit, but the 20th-rounder continues striking out in two out of every five plate appearances on the season. All is not lost, so hopefully, he can settle in a bit more as we go on and that home run helps him turn a corner. View full article

Last night was a big step forward on the cutter usage, which is interesting. Thus far, he had been using the cutter about 16% of the time against LHH. Last night was just shy of 30% usage...which is almost a 50% usage jump. Not sure if that's specifically a Boston Red Sox thing or what...but an interesting data point moving forward to note.

The big thing about the cutter is this: that's the pitch he's been missing to be an effective SP. Cutters are especially effective from RHP to LHH...it's what's made Kutter Crawford so viable against lefties. It should be unsurprising he basically didn't use it against RHH last night but featured it about 30% of the time to left handers. We have discussed a few times on the board as a whole that he's made little progress on a changeup or a splitfinger...but if he can show a cutter that's even a bit above league average...he can stick in the rotation. Really good news.

Yeah, this one is entirely on the ****** template. I'm usually captain "Fanatics Sucks" because, well, Fanatics kind of sucks...but Nike earned this blame. The new template simply doesn't work, looks cheap, and wasn't really needed (were players complaining about the performance of the last stuff?). I'm glad to see the player and the league pushback here. I was concerned the league would have just hoped this went away, but credit to them for forcing the issue. Sadly, it sounds like the base template is "here to stay" (per the league) so I'll be interested to see how they fix the template (instead of just going back to the last one). The league makes a bunch of really bad uniform decisions, but they got one right.

Valiant comeback effort. Bummer to lose it.

Ah. I was just thinking "you know what the Cubs need? And injury to another arm". This is more than a test for this team.

Last I saw it was 5-0. I went to cook dinner. I see that it got worse. Much...much worse.

They're getting guys on. Should bode well to score runs. PCA looking much more comfortable.

I had to stop myself from gagging when a student told me for his birthday he wanted a Trevor Bauer jersey from his time in the NPB. Wasn't worth the potential email from a parent explaining why that was a not so cool gift idea.

Good to see PCA with two solid PAs tonight.

Good to see the kids get big hits.

I was curious as to what Crawford was doing differently in 2024 from 2023 and you can see that the Boston Red Sox are certainly doing things similarly to how the Cubs are doing things (obviously the connective tissue here is Craig Breslow). For example, the Cubs have been a heavy sweeper team and go figure, Crawford is pumping sweepers in that he didn't throw often a at all while essentially, dumping the traditional slider entirely. They've also really worked on his cutter location. Hopefully the overlap in how the Red Sox do things and the Cubs do things give the Cubs some increased ability to attack him. He's really limited LHP because of his cutter so I wonder if the Cubs will sit guys like PCA and Mervis or not.

Oh yeah, I think there's a place for a more-free-swinging option to be apart of a lineup. With that said, with all things, moderation is key. Too much of anything, patience, aggression, whatever rarely results in a positive outcome. PCA has needed a refinement in his aggression, at least IMO, for a while, to reach the ceiling. I'm all for PCA having controlled aggression: swing a bunch in 0-0 counts, in hitters counts...etc. He makes enough contact and barrels that it's a fine strategy for him. I just want him to cut the chase down. Triple-A pitchers have seemed to zero in on this, upping his non-competitive strike% from 16% to 22%. PCA is just too aggressive right now. If he can tone it down, and just be...aggressive, he's going to be a pretty good offensive player, IMO.