Jason Ross

I'm on the fence. Stroman is a legitimately good SP. It gives the Cubs flexibility, but they have to make something of it, and there's no guarantee they will be able to (not a complaint as it always takes 2 to dance). So I'll hold off judgement until I see how the Cubs come out on the other end. "Bird in the hand..." type thing.

Stroman has officially opted OUT Per Heyman

I think his swing is built for LA and the reality is swings built for LA usually equal swings that struggle with velocity. If you're trying to get a bit under the ball, the higher the ball gets, the harder it is to get under, if that makes sense. So I don't think it has to be a Happ thing for PCA. Honestly, like, Javier Baez-lite without the "swing and the slider that was 20 feet over there" is what I'd be looking for. PCA has a strong bat to ball tool, with a hyper aggressive swing approach (though not like Baez). So I think you're hoping for someone who gets into better counts early, or learns to balance being aggressive early in counts while not being stupid in counts. He's also going to beat out a lot of those balls he tops because of his conservative 70 grade speed which should give him a really high BABIP floor. So I'm envisioning someone who's floor is like a Kevin Kiermaier type of like a .240/.290/.400 with 15-20 home runs and elite defense/base running. If you iron out the approach a bit, get him into good accounts, maybe a .280/.320/.450 guy. That guy is a borderline star. Immature feels like a decent word for him, but I prefer overconfident. I think he's a 21 year old kid who doesn't know what he doesn't know and he needed his ass thoroughly kicked. You can see those things in how he plays and it can make him fearless (you can see this in how he plays defense. He's just so fearless). He needed a bit of humbling at the plate, which is his biggest flaw. I'm excited it happened to him. Overconfident people can take that ass beating two ways; you put your head down and you pout about it, or you get pissed and refuse to feel that away again. I'm hoping very much PCA is the latter.

At this stage, I kind of would be surprised by a Bellinger resign. As a Boras client, I expect he'll wait out the offseason, and I'm not sure the Cubs will wait (with Soto, Alonso available via trade, and as well as the reports from Rogers that the Cubs will be more likely to go into the trade market than FA) that long. I'm a bit on the fence with a Bellinger extension, personally. Paying a premium for a CF to play 1b isn't really the best concept (though the Cubs should be able to afford that) and his BABIP with 2 strikes was basically impossible to repeat. With that said, especially on the 2nd part, he changed his approach so I think he'll be a decent-to-good-2-strike guy. I'm not entirely against it, just that I think it feels like something that I feel is unlikely today. One thing I agree with: PCA needed to get his ass handed to him at a level for a minute. I think his swing will always be an issue getting at high fastballs and I'm not sure they'll really work on that much overall (it was the Cubs who built this swing). What I think he'll need to work on is that approach of his. Pitch recognition, jumping on the right pitches, and avoiding getting into spaces where he can get beat up there often. Perhaps a slight change in 2-strike approach like we saw with Rizzo (like you mentioned!).

Acquired from the Oakland Athletics for Andrew Chafin, Daniel Palencia has made a name hitting triple digits on the gun and made his MLB debut. Can Daniel Palencia make enough waves to be an important part of the 2024 Cubs? 2023 Season Review Daniel Palencia's 2023 is similar to our #16 ranked prospect, Luke Little. Much like Little, Palencia entered the 2023 season as a member of the starting rotation. Making five starts in Tennessee, Palencia had some ups and downs in his first 15 innings. While being able to hit triple digits on the gun, Daniel struggled with walks, and most of his starts would last three or fewer innings. May 5th would mark his last start and appearance in Tennessee, as the Cubs would shift Palencia to the bullpen and immediately call him up to Iowa. The change to the bullpen helped push Palencia's timetable well ahead of where it was. Even with some control issues, a reliever who can easily hit 100mph is useful in many teams' bullpens. While Palencia's ERA in Iowa would sit just south of 8.00, the stuff Palencia showed and improving accuracy made Palencia attractive for a mid-season callup. He took off in mid-June, striking out 11 hitters to only two walks over his final six innings. This would lead to his call-up to the Chicago Cubs in early July. Looking at Palencia's overall numbers, I think it would be fair to be a little "whelmed" by the data in his first taste of the major leagues. Palencia saw 28 innings over 27 appearances, being used more and more by the end of the season. Struggling, especially at first, his first 11 innings were rough, to say the least. Striking out less than a hitter per inning and walking 6 per 9/IP, Palencia was wild and struggled with strike-throwing. Many of the feelings surrounding Palencia come with these first 11 innings playing a big part because, over his last 17 1/3 innings, Palencia struck out 11 per 9/IP, cut his walk rate in half, and posted a stellar 3.23 xFIP. This was mostly over his second stint with the team, and he seemed... more comfortable. By the end of the year, he was one of the more reliable relievers the Cubs had on the roster. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Daniel Palencia should start with the Chicago Cubs in 2024, barring an offseason injury or mechanical issue rearing its head. Finishing with an average fastball over 98mph and an extension in the 92nd percentile, Palencia offers velocity in a bullpen that hasn't offered a lot of that in the recent past. Also, looking at his last 17 innings, Palencia began to settle in as a reliable reliever. There needs to be more than 17 innings to suggest he will continue that, and we know relievers can be volatile. Still, it's enough for me that Palencia should be given medium-leverage situations with the hope that he can become a reliable high-leverage arm throughout 2024. There's still some polish to look at for Palencia, however. Despite the velocity and the K/9, his chase rate was in the bottom 30th percentile, so increasing the swing and miss outside of the zone from Palencia would be great. It'll be interesting to see how the Cubs handle his pitch mix; he mixed in a handful of curveballs, sinkers, and changeups throughout the season and is trying to figure out how he's going to either pair that down or ramp up the usage of a specific pitch (for, example, his changeup to keep lefties honest) will be interesting. Those are the types of things that would help solidify Palencia as a true leverage reliever. Much like Luke Little, Daniel Palencia could survive with a few more walks than others, but he'll need to keep that in check. Ultimately, this is an excellent outcome from the Andrew Chafin trade. The Cubs turned a waiver claim in Chafin into a potentially controllable, leverage reliever. This is a scouting win for the Cubs. View full article

Man, Estrada just can't catch a break with injuries. He had closer stuff at the end of 2022. Wish the best for him.

I'll be honest and say I really don't care much about the 19 PA's at the MLB level. They were spread around a bunch of games and you had a 21 year old kid who was likely really trying to impress during important games and being a hero. The 30% K% in Iowa is a little concerning, but it's hard to tell what it really is. His first 15 games he had a 21.9% K%. His next 13 games he had a 41.7% K%, and this was coupled with a lot of poor contact. His final 6 games he was back down to a 26% K%, and he was killing the baseball. Was it a bad 13 games? He had 13 game stretches that sucked in AA, too (31.4% K% from June 21st - July 6th, as an example) and we know they didn't really mean much in the grand scheme. Was it AAA exploiting him? It's one of those things I'd trust the Cubs to decide on. Partly why I'm on the fence with where I think he needs to be. What I do entirely agree upon is that a lot of this should be decided upon based on the offseason. It's why I think today I'd put it at like 60/40 him making the team, but that 40% is a very real outcome. It's just too early for me to call it. I also admit part of this is likely biased; I spend far too much time with the MiLB teams so I know my inherent biases.

I'm on the fence. I can buy an argument that Pete Crow-Armstrong has a few things to work on at the plate. He's hyper aggressive and he does struggle on fastballs up (his swing plane is always going to struggle there). On the other hand, I don't think these are things he can't work on at the MLB level, and his defense and base running should offer such a stable floor for value. Conversely, I'm just not a fan of Tauchman. He was pretty punchless over his last 150-160 PAs, and I kind of expect that hitter to continue based on his past and his baseball savant page. The Cubs might be able to be okay with that kind of a player for a few months, but at the same time, it's that kind of a player (Mancini, Hosmer, Barnhart, Smyly),the "floor" players who ultimately hurt the Cubs in the first part of the season. Tauchman has a lot of the same issues and I'd prefer not seeing a repeat.

The one arm I'm convinced will make the BP is actually Palencia. A little foreshadowing for tomorrow's #15 prospect, but Palencia's last 17.2 IP last year were near lights out. I'd like to see Little make the BP as I think he's an absolute weapon, but if Hughes is back to form, you can make an argument he'll take the spot. But I think what Palencia does (100mph off the right side) is something we just don't have without him. Alzolay, Merryweather...are nice RHP arms, but Palencia is just a different beast with what he offers stuff wise. I think he's got an inside track at a spot. Agree with @Bertzon PCA: I think it's 60/40 he's on the MLB roster. There are some offseason outcomes where I can see him being traded (though I think it's unlikely) and some where he goes back to Iowa, but I think he'll likely take CF considering the options we don't have there. The Cubs love defense up the middle and PCA offers such an impressively high floor. Basically, he can suck offensively and still speed-and-d his way to 2 wins in CF. Varsho had an 85 wRC+ last season and finished with a 2.1 fWAR based on his defense and baserunning and that feels like a "worse case 2023" for PCA barring health.

Yeah, I think it's very likely he's a reliever. With how little he's pitched, I can see a world where he takes larger than expected steps forward as a starter if given the chance, but I think it's pretty unlikely. Any value the Cubs get out of Arias is a real win considering what he was, so I'm fine with either outcome; reliever or starter.

Yeah he's got funk to him. I think we'll probably always see a walk total in the 4.5 (ish) range because it's a bit hard to repeat. Thankfully, he's a high GB% profile, and with the powerful stuff and extension, his propensity to get K's and double plays (should) in theory help to negate that. He might be someone who you kind of struggle to want to bring into a jam that was already created, more so using him to start innings fresh, as well.

Luke Little put his name on the map when he was filmed in a YouTube short hitting well over 100mph on the gun. Years later, Luke Little, a former 4th-round selection from the ill-fated 2020 draft, made his MLB debut with the Cubs. How does he fit into the grand scheme of things for the 2024 Cubs? Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review Entering 2023, Luke Little was still being deployed as a starting pitcher in the Chicago Cubs organization with the hope that one day, he could be a part of the rotation. After four starts in South Bend, however, Luke Little's trajectory was changed rapidly when he was moved to the bullpen, speeding up his ETA and leading him to speed run three levels on his way to pitch in a cup-of-coffee stint with the parent club in September. Looking back, Little's season is a bit strange, as it wasn't as if Luke Little was failing as a starter with South Bend, at least on the surface. After his first four starts, little had a microscopic 0.57 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings. The issue was the seven free passes Little also gave up, and the Cubs decided that the path forward for Little would be in the bullpen. While walks would continue to be an on-and-off issue for Luke Little, they rarely fell into "scary" territory. Only on three outings did Luke Little give up more than two walks, and one was in a two-inning stint. While imperfect, he tended to be able to limit and control the walks, showing improved command as he went. The switch to the bullpen put him on a collision course with the majors and he has sped up his ETA. It's easier to control walks in the bullpen, and as a left-handed pitcher capable of reaching the upper 90s with ease, Little's trajectory shot up like a rocket ship. Always a pitcher who posted high K/9 numbers, Little saw his strikeouts jump to over 16 per 9 innings pitched, just under 2 per inning. He was able to maintain this level at both AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa. He's also posted strong ground ball numbers, reaching 50%+ in Tennessee and over 40% in Iowa (in limited data). This shouldn't be surprising, as he throws two pitches, a fastball, and a sweeper, which should result in ground balls. This is the profile of a power arm out of the bullpen who could see high-leverage action if the walks remain in check. Little was promoted to the Chicago Cubs at the beginning of September and logged just under seven major league innings, striking out 12. Walks remained a slight concern, as Little issued four walks but never had an appearance where he walked more than one. He also continued to get ground balls and looked the part. Luke Little is special on the mound because he's huge, standing at 6"8", and averaged 96.6mph on his fastballs. His size and extension make that roughly 97mph fastball look more like a pitch coming in at roughly 100mph. While there is limited data, Little's extension (where Luke Little releases the ball) is in the 98th percentile of all MLB pitchers. This kind of velocity and stuff can help to mitigate the walks. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA I would be disappointed if Luke Little didn't start 2024 with the Cubs. If you argue that he shouldn't be trusted as the sole left-handed arm in the bullpen or the primary leverage lefty, that's fair. He needs to be on the MLB team because he's already on the 40-man roster and the stuff he has. The stuff is just too good to ignore. I think he should have been given a bit more leash last season, and I hope he gets that leash in 2024. I think Little has a leverage-type upside. Maybe he's not a "closer," but he's someone you can bring in later in the games and go to in important situations. There will always be a question with his walks, but you can survive with walks if you have great stuff in the bullpen. While this is not a comparison or a comp, Devin Williams, Aroldis Chapman, Alexis Diaz, and Josh Hader finished well above four walks per 9 innings pitched (and upwards) and still finished top-10 in reliever fWAR. You can survive with walks if you can strike out hitters at a high level and limit damage done, both of which Luke Little has the profile to do. On top of that, few pitchers have the fastball velocity and the extension on the release Little has. If I have one other question, it comes in the form of wondering how Little's fastball/sweeper will play against right-handers. Is Luke Little someone capable of attacking righties consistently? Or will we see another case of Hayden Wesneski or Adbert Alzolay, where their fastball/slider repertoire caused extreme splits? With that said, it's a question you only get if you give Luke Little a chance, one I hope he gets. View full article

Good walk down memory lane here with you guys!

He has five months. If the Cubs cannot use the 1,300 innings of data they already have on him at 3b in the MiLB over his career, plus 5 months of winter ball, work with coaches, daily ground balls, etc to determine if they think he's got a future at the position in the MLB, than the Cubs are not being run by the right people. You and I need baseball savant data to talk defense. The Chicago Cubs do not. How exactly do you think the Chicago Cubs came to the conclusion that Nick Madrigal could play 3b last offseason?

I think we have to accept that the way the Cubs behavior from 2021-2022 will likely be different over the next few years. If it was 2021, or 2022, I would think that he might try. But Dom Smith isn't young any more, and he's just bad. Even when the Cubs pickup players I think are bad, they're guys who were hovering around league average (for their position) wRC+.

Yeah, I think Juan Soto being traded sounds like a very likely thing. And I'd guess it's something they'd prefer to get done quicker rather than later. It gives them an offseason direction and a plan (probably why we're already getting rumors the Yankees may or may not have talked to the Padres already).

We are speaking the same language then! Yeah, the hands could use less movement. Might even unlock more power, frankly, and should create less movement overall.

Well, it depends on what you mean. If you mean the only way the Cubs will know if Morel can play 3b is by having him play there in the regular season, then, no. Morel isn't going to sit on a couch between today and April. You and I won't have baseball savant data. I'm sure the Cubs can figure out a way between today and Opening Day (winter ball, instructs, camps, training, etc) as to whether or not he can play 3b. They also have data and scouting from his MiLB days when he played 3b. The Cubs were able to find out if Nick Madrigal could play 3b over the same amount of time just last offseason and they didn't even have MiLB data or scouting on him at that position because he hadn't played there as a professional. There are 5 full months between now and Opening Day. If the Cubs are interested in finding out, they will.

I think we've finally seen that ship sail. The Cubs can be cheap at times and haven't really valued 1b, but they're not going to bring in a 90 wRC+ 1b. They might not go huge at 1b, but I don't think we'll see even close to a repeat of the Eric Hosmer nonsense.

I think they'll go a little longer with Arias for a few reasons. The first, he just hasn't really pitched much and starting should get him more innings, more time and more experience. Secondly, I wonder if the Cubs won't feel the immediate need so much. With Little, Palencia, Alzolay, and a few other arms already in BP, the immediate need to push Arias up may not be there. Lastly, I think it'll help keep him off the 40. If he spends most of the year at South Bend with a small trip to Tennessee as a SP, I think it'll help him not get selected next winter again versus pushing him through the system, having success and maybe him topping out at Iowa as a solid looking reliever. Just guessing with all of this, however, and usually when I guess I'm just flat wrong!

Maybe? But I'm not entirely worried about it yet. I think a lot of Alcantara's thing just comes with approach. Could see it early last year; no walks, but a healthy amount of K's. Right before the leg injury he seemed to fall back into a good approach, and both his walks climbed and his K's declined. I wouldn't be shocked to know he fell back into some bad habits in the AFL. Probably a pitch recognition thing as it comes with experience. He's done this a bit, where he'll struggle a bit early in a level with this, then settle in. As he moves up, maybe a situational load change would help him get around on high-inside-fastballs. Tall, lanky cats like El Jaguar get beat up there often, usually around the AAA level as pitchers' command begins to match their stuff more often. For example, shortening that load up a bit with 2 strikes when you're more likely to see that high-inside-pitch so you can get those hands around on it a bit quicker. Really I'd like to see his hands move a bit less (but maybe that's what you're looking at when you're talking load. Usually load, I'm thinking the leg load but you could be talking hand load). Keep the movement leg-and weight-transfer only.

Michael Arias was once a failed shortstop with the Toronto Blue Jays. Today, he's a top-20 prospect in a deep, crowded Cubs system. Exactly how did we get here, and where are we going? Image courtesy of Myrtle Beach Pelicans 2023 Season Review Michael Arias has had a strange, fun, and winding route to becoming a top-20 organizational prospect. Originally signed as a shortstop by the Toronto Blue Jays, the Cubs scooped up Arias post-Covid to turn him from a shortstop into a pitcher. Since then, Michael Arias had not been seen much, compiling short stints in the DSL and the Arizona Complex League, which could have gone better. However, 2023 was a big change for the young hurler, and Arias is clearly on the map as someone with upside. Michael Arias's biggest success was during a 42 IP stint in Myrtle Beach. Flashing a fastball that was reported to hit in the high-90s throughout the season and a funky delivery from a three-quarter arm slot, Arias posted an awesome 3.26 xFIP and a K/9 over 13. There are a few caveats in this, being that Arias was 21 years old and in a pretty pitcher-friendly environment, but it's fair to suspend some of that as we remember how raw and new to the position he is. The walk rate was high, sitting over 5 per 9/IP, but forgivable for a pitcher making his professional debut proper. If there's one thing it's clear Arias is a star about, it's his ability to limit hard contact and home runs, giving up just two home runs all season (likely due to his arm slot, slider, and fastball combination) Arias moved through Myrtle Beach quickly and was promoted to South Bend mid-season. South Bend was far more up and down and offered a unique challenge for Michael Arias. He managed to keep a somewhat respectable 4.25 xFIP and continue to limit home runs (as just one of his two home runs surrendered occurred at high-A). He had a more up-and-down roller coaster ride, being a part of a no-hit-shutout from the South Bend Cubs on July 6th, striking out seven in just a little over three innings on July 22nd, but also having games like his last start where he walked five while striking out five. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Be prepared to hear it often when we look at the Cubs' prospects, but Michael Arias will be another player on whom the Cubs will have to make 40-man and Rule 5 decisions. It's always a bit strange to see someone available for the Rule 5 draft around their 22nd birthday, but due to signing as an IFA, Arias is currently out of time and will need to be added to the 40-man or be eligible to be drafted. I do not think the Cubs will ultimately protect him, much like they exposed Luis Devers, the 2022 breakout pitcher. Suppose there's a small benefit to his struggles. In that case, I cannot see a team willing to commit to Michael Arias on the MLB roster for the entirety of the 2024 season, and you probably don't want to stash and "phantom injury" a player with as little background as Arias. Michael Arias is ticketed for South Bend to start the 2024 season (assuming he's not drafted). There will be more leash here and a slower build time than many other pitchers in the Cubs' system. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs give Arias a quick hook and turn him into a leverage bullpen arm. Most players who are converted position players end up as relievers down the road. Players like former Cub reliever Carlos Marmol (a converted catcher) and others such as Sean Doolittle, Kenley Jansen, and even the great Trevor Hoffman settle in as relievers. There are success stories like former college position player Jacob DeGrom turning into a Cy Young caliber starting pitcher, but those are much fewer and farther between. Michael Arias has a very loose and a bit wonky delivery, which I think lends itself more to the bullpen, allowing quick removals if he's not finding the consistency versus starting, where that can put you in much more peril. Arias is a potential leverage reliever or a righty-killer with the arm slot and repertoire. There's a chance he's a starter, but he has more of a reliever's build. As a starter, I don't think we'll see Michael Arias on the Cubs for a few years, maybe not until late 2025 or 2026. As a leverage reliever, there's a possibility of a late 2024 call-up if everything goes to plan and he settles in with his stuff, though 2025 would be more likely. However, none of that should be disparaging for a player who was clearly not making any headway as a position player. Great scouting find and win so far for the Cubs. View full article