Jason Ross

Not to toot my horn...but that's the conclusion I came to myself with a deep dive into both players Triple-A data. On the surface they look similar but the processes are vastly differently. It's interesting because I was always a Mervis fan, but that's because the eye test hides the process, as do the overall lines. Getting real in depth, you can see it. The Cubs have that data and more. If I can find it...well the Cubs can. Far more efficiently and better.

On opening day you'd be pretty stagnant across the board defensively, with a changeout at 1b from Mancini/Hosmer to Busch (kind of unknown) and Tauchmann who would likely be a downgrade in CF, unless the team opened with Pete Crow-Armstrong (which I'm just not sure they'll do). I still think they'll do something, but I can see where you'd be probably giving away something defensively.

I think both of these things make sense. First, being "platoon" has been a "dirty" or bad word in baseball for a while, but we have to move past this connotation. Left handed hitters, league wide, are just really bad against left handed pitching. Left handed hitters had a 90 wRC+ league wide against LHP. This is a .303 wOBA, or in simple terms, a .240/.315/.375 slash. Just 25 left handed hitters, with at least 100 PA's had a wRC+ over 100 against LHP. It's incredible how bad lefties are against lefties. Left handed hitters are basically Dom Smith against LHP. Ask yourself this: do you want Dom Smith in your lineup? Ever? That's...bad. In comparison, even bumping the sample size to over 2x (to 250 PA's) there are 72 right handed hitters who had a 100 wRC+ against RHP. Being part of a "platoon" now a days is just normal. Is Michael Busch going to be more of a platoon hitter than not? Probably, he's left handed and managers are starting to figure this out (he didn't have terrible numbers against LHP in Triple-A so there's some hope he can be somewhat useful against LHP). The Brewers, under Craig Consell, had some of the biggest use of platoons in the league. Don't think of it as "dirty" or "bad". Think of it as "maximizing". The Cubs are going to maximize their lineups daily to make sure they don't just pencil someone in the lineup just because. So Micahel Busch will be put in places he'll more likely succeed in while allowing hitters who hit LHP to succeed more in his place when needed. Mervis...well I did an article on him recently. His issues with contact were on display in Triple-A as well. It's more than K%...he was a bottom 10 contact% in Triple-A post his return. There's real issues there. The Cubs have always had reservations there, and I think I am starting to see why.

2020-2021: 69 wRC+, .269 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .088 ISO, 12.3 BB%, 27.8% K% 2023 (last 150): 74 wRC+.271 wOBA, 271 BABIP, .066 ISO, 15.6 BB%, 24.5% K% I think you can suggest that perhaps the approach was a bit better, but other than that, the Mike Tauchmann we saw to close out the year was, generally speaking, spot on the guy he was previously. This was his rolling wOBA from 2020 to 2021. There's some peaks and valleys, much likely that 150 PA span from 2023 to close out the season. Really, what stands out in 2023 is that one, extended run from about, June 11th through July 19th where he ISO'd .180 (that big peak in 2023). Outside of that, much of his rolling wOBA in 2023 is similar to that of the past...the peak he had was just much extended versus those of the past. There always will be those peaks and valleys for everyone, but I don't really think I see a bad-streak...I think I just see the Mike Tauchmann I expect moving forward...the guy he kind of has been outside of his one, really nice, 2019 season. Is it an arbitrary end point? Sure. But that's kind of what happens when guys turn back into the players we expected them to kind of be, isn't it? Arbitrary? It just...happens. And I think the pixie dust for Mike just kind of...ran out. I don't want to suggest he's...worthless...but that even with curated PA's, I kind of expect him to be more like that end of the season Mike Tauchmann than the first half of 2023 Mike Tauchmann. He can lock down a fourth OF'ers role and we'll probably be fine, but I kind of expect come mid-year that he'll have his role pretty diminished once the Cubs turn over spots to players like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Overall he seems like a dude who fits in well in the clubhouse and is liked, and he has some skills that are useful enough, I just don't think the magic is going to keep.

Truthfully I think he's already turned back into a pumpkin. His final ~150 PA's saw him post a 74 wRC+. The BABIP was a bit low, but not egregiously, and he walked/K'd in normal amounts. He hit just a single homerun, and that's been his issue over his career: a real lack of power. His last 150 PA's mirrored his 301 PA's before he came to the Cubs, where he had a 69 wRC+, with a .088 ISO...so the outlier was the front half of his 2023 Cubs' production. I think the Cubs will let him start the year in a decent role, and will likely rank higher than Canario in terms of "guys the Cubs will let play". But I wouldn't be surprised to see his role diminish pretty heavily through the year, and don't rate him too high myself.

Yeah I can't see a real path to Canario making an impact in 2024 outside of a bunch of injuries. Today, I'd assume the OF depth chart looks something like: Suzuki/Happ/Tauchmann with PCA in the wings and Canario fifth. But if (and likely when) they add in Bellinger, Canario will quickly slide to the sixth spot. At DH, you have Busch/Morel/Wisdom probably ahead of him (with some movement at other positions and 1b), but also will probably add in Bellinger there, too. I don't think he's really in the mix for anything once the dust settles and would need, maybe, two injuries in the first half of the season to make a contribution. Once July hits, you might add in Murray/Shaw/Caissie into the DH/OF mix (or pushing a player into the DH mix). End result, I just don't see a path for Canario here to get more than a token >100 PA's in 2024. For a player who's on their last option, it's just not enough to be considered an asset.

Was thinking the same exact thing. Hopefully the Cubs do something about that with Juan Soto next season...

Witt signed an 11 year, 287m extension with Kansas City.

I think it has less to do with spending, or security, at a certain point and it becomes something else. I think Logan Paul is an absolute trash human being, but I caught a quote of his that I think speaks to the mindset. Basically, it was that money was a scoreboard for him. And I think that probably is a way that many athletes look at it, too. They're competitive. The $100m vs $110m? It's keeping score. It's winning. It helps me make sense as to why someone would be cool playing for a losing team. Because, maybe in their head, they're not winning games but they're winning contracts over others. It's just a new game to win.

There's a reason I teach history and not language arts. Reading comprehension skills ain't it for me.

Yeah, I'd agree that a .500 SLG is probably above and beyond. That said, I think an .800 OPS is well within reach. Mike Cameron feels like realistic goal of a prospect like PCA, and Cameron did so six times, with an seventh at .795 (which is really just splitting hairs). Don't want to make anyone think that's a prediction, just that, I think PCA's a guy who has the hit tool, the swing, the power and the speed (he's going to leg singles and turn them into doubles) to make that happen as a possibility. The question for me will be the approach.

Sounds like Boston is about to make a move. Might be worth a monitor. EDIT: Epstein back in Boston as part owner. Kind of cool for him.

Image of rhe article is a bit poorly worded. What it seems as though, is that the residence was listed in May, and did not sell. In November, the Bohne's listed it for rent. It was pulled off the market relatively quickly afterwards, according to Zillow. It has not been listed since mid-November. The tweet is alluding to Bellinger potentially renting it since his partner followed one of the Bohnes. How likely that is, is up you!

Ben Brown, but left handed and a middle infield prospect who reminds me of Michael Busch. Not a stylistic comp but in trajectory. Mid-20s prospect who's got MLB ready written all over him, but blocked. I think he's a good player. I mentioned him as a guy I wanted, around June last summer, if the Cubs were forced to sell. I think he's a guy who suffers a bit from Orioles prospect fatigue and being blocked.

I know a lot of people are going to say that's light and they think the Brewers got fleeced...but I kind of really like that deal for Milwaukee. Joey Ortiz feels criminally underrated and has some power that's been popping and DL Hall has some legit juice. Milwaukee's lost Sterns and Counsell but the support staff is largely still in place. You give that team, that stuff...and I'm a bit worried. Baltimore's system is so loaded that I think we forget how loaded it's been.

Fangraphs usually runs a "Looking back at..." article from Dan Szymborski himself. Dan's the bomb, and he's always willing to be really introspective at the projection. I really enjoy his twitter if you don't follow. He'll jump around from really cool baseball analysis, to mocking the Rockies, to some weird AI generated image. Worthy follow. Here's Dan's 2022 retrospective.

Content schedule, I'm sure. 30 teams, want to draw it out a bit. Plus, most teams are generally settled most offseasons. We're in a bit of a weird one right now. With that said, even with a few teams likely to add a 3 or so win player here or there, 99% of players projections are ready to rock and roll. So I don't blame them.

First off, welcome to the boards! in terms of ZiPS, I don't really agree with that. I think prediction systems, in general, get a bad wrap because people misuse them. They're not iron clad guarantees, but a way of taking input data, in this case, past performance, batted ball data, age-regression curves, and then outputting a likely, and, realistic, possibility. Whether or not it's favorable for the Cubs, the output is unbiased and just...information. Where people become disappointed with ZiPS is when ZiPS is off, but again, I think it's user error more than ZiPS being erroneous...it's that people sometimes can't recognize that ZiPS can't predict wild change, batted ball variance, improvement, injury, etc. I'm a fan of looking at things like ZiPS because it gives you a realistic idea of where players and your team sits. It's just important to also recognize the general recipe as well, and how things can change based on ingredients.

I think this is setting up perfectly for a Chapman to San Francisco and Cody Bellinger to Chicago situation barring a team like the Angels or whatever coming in at Boras' price.

Turner to Blue Jays. 1 year. Per Morosi.

I don't think Matt Chapman is as good as a fit as others. He's someone who hits the ball hard, but you have to fix his approach. As well, his bat is similar in profile to many players the Cubs have: higher strikeout, flyball, struggles on fastballs (Cubs were in the botom-10 on fastballs last year in wOBA) and is right handed (the Cubs seemingly are looking for a left handed hitter). On top, it's not like he's just had an issue with production last year; it goes back his last 2000 PA's: he's been a 110 wRC+ hitter. Yes he plays 3b, and yes the glove, but I think in terms of style...he's someone the Cubs have. As well, the infield is pretty locked in right now with Swanson and Hoerner. Do we really want to further lock in the infield for the next 3 seasons? I'd side with Bellinger. His data suggest he overperformed. With that said, I think Bellinger's ability to play a few positions, his left handed bat, his low-K, high-contact, high-lift bat fits a good profile for the Cubs. He's younger, as well. I wouldn't say he's so much of a good fit they should spend $200m, but in a vacuum, I think Bellinger just fits what the Cubs need better....even if there's some questions on how exactly he fits.

On Saturday morning, the Cubs agreed to terms with Hector Neris, formerly of the Houston Astros. Expected to help bolster the back end of the Cubs bullpen, what should you expect out of the fiery right hander in 2024? Image courtesy of © Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK Hector Neris has been a staple of MLB bullpens for quite some time now. Coming up with the Phillies and, most recently, a member of the Houston Astros (even helping them win the 2022 World Series), Neris has racked up nearly 550 appearances in his career. A high strikeout - and sometimes higher walk - reliever, Neris can be deployed in an eighth-inning role or the closer's role if needed. His history with being a closer and his strikeout tendency are significant reasons for his addition by the Cubs. With that said, a deeper dive into Hector Neris' 2023 season does show a few cracks in the armor and a few ways to fix them. One of the cracks in that armor is that Neris is currently seeing a decline in his velocity. With his average fastball velocity sliding to around 93mph, the Astros' leverage reliever finished in the bottom 32% of all pitchers in average fastball velocity. This is down from prior years, where his fastball sat in the mid-94-mph range; just last season, his fastball was in the top half in terms of velocity. The good news is that this didn't hurt his overall strikeout numbers, as his K% was still over 28%, but fastball velocity decline can signal aging issues, and Neris is set to turn 35 soon. In 2023, Neris had some luck, as well. Despite limiting hard contact well over his career, Hector's career BABIP against sits around .280, perfectly normal for most pitchers. Last year, however, his BABIP against was just .219, a likely unsustainable and unrepeatable number. Also, the big-bodied pitcher stranded 90% of the runners he allowed on base (and Neris does walk a hitter or two over the average). This was good for the third-best strand rate in the league and is a statistic that varies from year to year. Despite the sparkling sub 2.00 ERA, he had an FIP of 3.83 and an xFIP in the mid-4s. Along with the velocity drop, it's easy to see where regression would occur if these numbers held stable. So what can the Cubs do? First, his pitch mix can be altered a little bit. For a pitcher losing velocity on his fastball, Neris has seen his fastball usage spike since moving to Houston, from just 36.8% of the time in 2021 with the Phillies to over 51.7% of the time last year. This has seen a 12% decline in the usage of his split-finger fastball, resulting in him going from a ground ball pitcher to an extreme fly ball pitcher. With the Cubs defense and the declining velocity on the fastball, I expect Neris will be encouraged to feature his split-finger more. Speaking of the split-finger fastball, it's a good pitch, and I'm not entirely sure why he didn't feature it more. His split-finger fastball was his most-whiffed pitch in the zone and his most-chased pitch out of the zone in 2023. It shouldn't be surprising, then, to note that it had the lowest wOBA Against and the second-lowest xWOBA Against only to his slider (which he rarely throws to begin with). What's interesting is to notice how Neris' in-zone miss rates have changed over those two years, likely due to the decline in the fastball. Interestingly enough, his pitch map looks nearly identical between 2021 and 2023. But where he's getting those misses has changed dramatically. Below, on the left, you'll see his 2021 season, and in 2023, on the right. Neris got far more swings and misses at the top of the zone, probably due to an overuse of the fastball and the decline of the velocity on that pitch. He is not getting the swing and miss at the top of the strike zone like he was. The logical conclusion should be to utilize the best chase pitch you have, the split-finger and lower that heat map to the bottom of the zone and out of the zone. Below, you'll see his Chase Rate in 2023. Notice where the chases are? They're low. That's the splitter. Finally, we can see how this played out on the hit charts. Again, using 2021 (left) and 2023 (right), we can see how many more ground balls Neris got between the two seasons, something which dried up for him. If it's not clear by now, the Cubs will likely look to get the 2021 version of the reliever instead of the the 2023 version. The 2021 version threw his best pitch a lot more and used the infield more. Again, that is a strength for the Cubs. The 2023 version had some good luck to get to the ERA he had. And even though the 2023 version had two runs less on his ERA, the 2021 version had the better xFIP by nearly an entire run. The Cubs cannot rely on his LOB% and BABIP to continue at the 2023 levels. It is unlikely that his velocity will return to 2021 levels when he was averaging 1.5 mph more on the pitch, but the Cubs can squeeze a little more juice out of the pitch. And none of this should suggest he shouldn't continue to strike people out: Neris' K% in 2021 was in the 91st percentile of all of baseball. We can't expect that high of a K% at his age, but because he's using the infield a bit more, it shouldn't mean he's skipping the swing and miss potential. Overall, this is a solid signing and an arm that should allow him to remain a high-leverage reliever. His age, fastball velocity, and luck statistics can show that some issues are forming, but on a one, and possibly two-year deal, the Cubs avoid potential long-term issues. With a pitch mix tweak, the Cubs should get a reliever who can be a lock-down-eighth-inning type for the contract's length, barring some unforeseen occurrence. The Cubs grabbed a good reliever on a better deal. What do you think of the Cubs signing of Hector Neris? Do you think it's a good move for the backend of the bullpen? Do you think the Cubs should continue to add or do you think they're done? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

I can gladly admit; I liked Cade Horton a lot draft night. I'll also admit...he's been better than I could have imagined, despite that.

There's likely some regression in store...his BABIP was super low, the velocity was down a tick, and the LOB% is very high...but a solid back end reliever all in all. He has some closing experience, so in the event of an Alzolay injury can step up. Having him with options are good. The Cubs can cut bait if he's hurt or really regressed, Neris can stick around if he'd like if he's good or choose to leave. I'll try to dig deeper into the "why" but his GB% has basically nosedived last two years. Wonder if there's a pitch mix change to bring that up a bit to use our infield more. Cubs are some of the best at velocity increases too. B+ signing all in all.