Jason Ross

Honestly, had Caissie been on the 40-man...I think the Cubs may have gone with him based on his form over PCA. They clearly aren't scared to call guys up and throw them in the deep end a bit (I.E. Brown). Being he's not 40-man'd it was an easy call. And good on PCA he's looked far better, so it's probably been the right call ultimately.

Many of the Cubs best prospects had really solid starts to their 2024 campaign. Which one of them stood out over the rest? Image courtesy of Tennessee Smokies April is always a fun month and full of hope. For the Cubs, it also saw the promotion of some of it's biggest name prospects. Luckily for the Cubs, their farm system is stacked with interesting prospects to follow. Also luckily for the Cubs, many of their best prospects had big first months of the season. Honorable Mentions 3B Matt Shaw: 150 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 16 BB%, 1 3B, 3 HR: Okay, his last few weeks have been lackluster, but also highlights how torrid of a start he got off to. It was an imbalanced month, but his incredible walk rate (a new plate approach seems to be in the works) and a 150 wRC+ in Double-A is going to get you landed as an honorable mention regardless. If his month had been more consistent, he'd be much, much higher. OF Kevin Alcantara: 113 wRC+, 26 K%, 5 BB%, 2B, 4 HR: `Alcantara is the anti-Shaw, starting his season off with 10 straight hitless games. Since then, he's posted a 228 wRC+, with eight extra-base hits, a Strikeout Rate under 20% and is absolutely crushing the baseball. The overall line isn't good enough to get onto the podium for April, but he belongs in the conversation based on his last two weeks. IF Luis Vazquez: 142 wRC+, 22 K%, 8 BB%, 5 2B, 3 HR: Man, it's rough to have to relegate the Iowa Cubs shortstop to the honorable mentions category, but I just can't find a way to justify him higher. Regardless, Luis absolutely crushed April, and at some point, the Cubs may have to ask themselves if he can give them more with the bat than Nick Madrigal can. OF Owen Caissie: 129 wRC+, 30.9 K%, 17.3 BB%, 8 2B, 1 HR: It's just a matter of times the doubles turn into home runs for the slugging outfielder. The K's are a bit elevated but not horrible for his age or for his first run at Triple-A. This has been one of his better starts, and if he continues to do what he's done at the previous levels - which is turn on the jets - come June...watch out. April's Top 3 Cubs Minor League Hitters of the Month #3 - 2B James Triantos: 142 wRC+, 10 K%, 6.3 BB%, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR Triantos absolutely went bonkers this month in Tennessee. He's getting the edge on a few of the above players (a common theme of the top-3) due to age and context: he's just 21 years old and just starting his time in Tennessee at Double-A. We can debate his defensive ability and position, but this exercise is all about the bat. With eight extra base hits, he's showing more signs of power without losing an inch of contact ability. #2 - SS Jefferson Rojas: 126 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 8 BB%, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR Did players have better overall lines than Rojas who are currently sitting in the Honorable Mentions category? Yes, they did. None of them, however, turned 18-years-old this month, and playing at High-A and that gives Rojas the edge in my book. This is as good of an April offensively you could have drawn up for the shortstop. Continuing to sport a low strikeout rate at more advanced levels fills me with some hope that this is truly a breakout prospect with star potential. With that said, being 18 years old at High-A just isn't enough to topple... April's Cubs Minor League Hitter of the Month: C Moises Ballesteros, C : 184 wRC+, 13.8 K%, 15.5 BB%, 2 2B, 3 HR A 184 wRC+ will do it. The reality is that this wasn't even close, Big Mo absolutely ran away with this month's awards. Let's put it this way: a 184 wRC+ with a strikeout to walk ratio in favor of the walks is the type of thing I write up for my "hot or not" weekly section, not for 58 plate appearances spanning a month. This is ridiculous. And to keep the theme of the month here; he's only 20 years old. and in his first taste of Tennessee. Tons has been made about his ability or inability to stick at catcher, but if he's going to hit like this...he can be a DH and we'll all get on with our lives. Have yourself a month, Mo! View full article

So what you're saying is "I want more power rankings".

Tonight is a good reminder the next time we blow a game...they go both ways. But I'll take it!

Just how you draw it up.

Yeah, there's a bit of sadness when it comes to Madrigal's upside at this point and what our "best case" is with his bat. It's hard to defend him as a useful long term piece at this point...more or less biding his time until the Cubs decide it's time to upgrade that slot via trade or prospect promotion,

That's a good idea. A "This Week in the Cubs Offseason" type thing? Recap rumors and transactions? I'm sure one of us writers can do it. Hell, probably something I could do.

On the Madrigal debate as a whole: I think I'm fine going in any direction with Mastro/Madrigal/Vazquez. I think you can make an argument for any of them: Madrigal: Allows you to let Vazquez stay in Triple-A and develop. Gives you consistent contact off the bench. Good glove, capable of playing 2b and 3b, and his .200 BABIP will simply improve naturally Mastrobuoni: Gives you a left handed hitter, had a 100 wRC+ in a decent sample size at the end of last year. Can offer some OF versatility if you want it. Likely not a bench killer with as little as he plays. Vazquez: Capable of playing SS, something neither of the other two are capable of. Possible his bat is a step up from both and could give the Cubs more options for resting guys like Hoerner/Swanson that they don't have the same luxury with the former two. Has been hitting out of his mind at Triple-A It's still early enough in the season that even if you think Vazquez is the bang-on best option (and I don't really think that) his development still trumps the marginal benefit as the 26th man. In the even of an injury in the case of Hoerner/Swanson I'd probably turn to Vazquez over the other two, but as 26th men? I think the former two are just fine right now. Come September/October it might make sense to elevate the latter over the other two, but that's when you're worried about your best roster and development takes a back seat for a bit.

Probably not. Bote is off the 40-man and the Cubs probably have little incentive right now to add him. Even if he's a marginal upgrade over Mastrobuoni (which I don't really think he is) you'd have to DFA someone just to get a marginal benefit for someone who's barely playing (Mastro got 13 PA's his first run). It's not worth that.

Good to see him turn and burn one off the lefty. It's one month into his Triple-A journey but he's really been hitting lefties well this year; a big jump from years past.

He's hit the ball hard in Triple-A, but in-zone whiff rates and contact rates remained below Triple-A average regardless of whatever changes he's made. As well, teams have really stayed away from where he's done damage. Mervis has hit the ball well inside. MLB pitchers have thrown him outside. MLB pitchers are just really good and if I can find these heat maps, I'm sure MLB teams have this x1,000. You can essentially overlay his pitch frequency chart in the MLB over his contact rate in Triple-A and they'd be mirrors. I will say this: in SSS Mervis has made 72% contact at the MLB level while keeping his in-zone whiff to >19%. The process isn't horrible on the surface. but I think he's swinging way too often (60% swing rate), which has elevated the contact rate, probably. He's swung a lot, and made weak contact a lot.

There's just something wrong with Adbert mechanically right now. It doesn't look like it's a release point thing, but there's something that's not allowing him to get to the far side of the plate (for Adbert).

Me to Dansby Swanson:

Wicks and Assad both have top-35 FIP's in baseball right now. There's little reason either should be moved from the rotation. I think it's more likely we see a hybrid 6-man to maintain Horton and Imanaga's innings a bit.

Wainwright.

Outsider's perspective: I think things work pretty well. I like that the game threads are connected to the main forum, myself. It means I don't have to have a handful of extra clicks; I can check the game thread then immediately look under to go into an article or roster-construction question. That's more similar to how things worked at PSD, so that's probably where that's coming from, but either way, I appreciate that. Conversation has been good too! Again, as a newer member, the levels of discussion are really similar to where we were at on PSD when we had a lot of active members. People are happy when things are good and melt down when they're not. God forbid the Cubs lose a three game set to a mediocre team; then it was death-watch city. We had a few bumps, and we jettisoned the biggest offender, but I've been having a good time here with everyone. Feel less like an outsider/new person and more integrated for sure.

Kyle Schwarber's approach hasn't really changed, though. His swing% in 2015 in 0-0 counts was 29% compared to a little over 27% now. He was equally as pull heavy then as now. He did swing less in general in 2023 to 2015, but the change in swing rate seems to be mostly laying off the super-high stuff. It's refined but he still has a generally similar approach to hitting. A good reminder as well, 2015 was the same season that Schwarber played in Double-A, it's quite unlikely his approach is vastly different over the course of the season, even at different levels. Secondly, I think we need to remember that Owen Caissie was playing in some different conditions at Double-A. First, he's a whole two years younger than Kyle Schwarber and didn't have the benefit of power-five college baseball. As well, Owen Caissie dealt with a baseball experiment in the first half of his Double-A experience, a baseball that has been since removed. Looking at his TTO, he had 30 singles, 15 doubles, 1 triple over his last 50, non-pre-tacked baseball games. Schwarber had 58 games in Double-A in which he posted 39 hits, 10 doubles, and one triple. Caissie hit just about as many non walks-home runs-K's as Schwarber in a smaller sample size and at a different age-gap to the league. I think that context matters. Lastly, what a player's "calling card" is kind of hard to determine. We often think one thing, but data doesn't always bear that out. While I appreciate that in 2015 we thought Kris Bryant hit a lot of opposite field stuff in the minors, I cannot prove or disprove that. What I can do is look at consistent data from Caissie and Schwarber. Even in 2015, Schwarber was pull-only. Caissie has yet to show a spray chart that looks the same. In the end, you're free to have your own opinion, but again, I don't see anything to suggest a comparison. Caissie doesn't do things the way Schwarber does. He doesn't do things the way Schwarber did in 2015, and the way Schwarber does things in 2023 (last full season) isn't very different from 2015. Maybe Caissie will change his approach...we're looking a month of statcast data for him...but if the argument that maybe Caissie will change is the basis for why they're being compared...that feels spurious at best.

No. Not in my estimation. It feels like an easy comparison of "OF'er who hits the ball hard" but I think they do things differently. I think Caissie has less three-outcome-potential and I like the progress he's made with his hit tool over the years. Caissie swings more than Schwarber and that's been a big point of emphasis for him; swing more, don't find yourself in bad counts early because you're too patient. Keep in mind we're talking Triple-A data here, but Caissie is swinging at 42% of pitches against RHP. Compare that to Schwarber last year who was at 37%. Caissie also swings earlier in the count: 37% on 0-0 pitches where as Schwarber, last year was at 23%. Caissie also uses the field a lot better in general. I've got Caissie's 2024 hit chart below and Schwarber's 2023. Schwarbs is pull or nothing, where as Caissie has always been someone who isn't as pull heavy. Not to say I wouldn't like to see Caissie pull the ball a but more, but I think the way they go about hitting is quite stark, and even with just a month of statcast Caissie data, you can see that they approach things differently. Caissie isn't elevating the ball right now in Triple-A, but I think part of that has been how he's been pitched; pitchers are only now coming inside on him, so hopefully that'll change. Lastly, I think they are different monsters defensively. Caissie is far more natural in the OF than Schwarber is/was. Caissie has some real athleticism to him out there, and a 60+ grade arm in RF. In the end, I wouldn't compare the too very directly.

Good for Cade. He's an injury away from Chicago now. He's arguably ready today.

So, there does seem to be some changes under the hood, while also some changes that we're seeing in results. For example, Tauchman is swinging 5% more and chasing 3% more. He's actually pulling the ball less (which is weird because the power is spiking and normally those things go hand in hand). The big change is a 10% increase in fly balls, which probably explains the ISO explosion. He's seeing this result in far better barrel rates and sweet-spot rates (also likely aiding the ISO explosion). Where I'd caution is this: it's generally believed that you need more than 150 PA's to be comfortable that a plate approach change has occurred and is effective with players like Tauchman who have significant data sets. I think it's likely that in same way shape or form this is the "high water mark" on the season for Mike...he's got a 169 wRC+ that just isn't going to keep regardless of what his xData suggests - I think we all know he's not a top-10 hitter in baseball. He's running a .353 BABIP, which is probably .30-.40 points high as well. So I think we have to know that the league will re-adjust in some fashion/manner and there's going to be regression; there just aren't that many 33 year olds in the history of baseball who went from a career 102 wRC+ hitter to being a top-20 guy, ya know? He's also going to go through the normal ups and downs on the season like all hitters. With that said, if these approach changes stick, there's probably good reason to believe that Tauchman will have improved his overall profile. Hitting the ball in the air is good. Improved slugging is good. Swinging a bit more in a controlled manner is good. Tauchman finished with a 107 wRC+ last year and this version looks to be an improvement over that. So if these approach changes keep, probably safe to assume a 110-115 wRC+ is on the table for Mike the rest of the way. Which is awesome for him and the Cubs.

Morel!

Smoked the horsefeathers out of that one! Tied game.

Alright, got some life here. Go get him Nick.

City connect is a blight across the league. Come to my Ted Talk next week titled "Why I'm a Uniform Crumudgeon and Why You Should Be Too".