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Jason Ross

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  1. We had a guy on PSD who was clearly connected with the Cubs FO at the time of the 2010 draft. He called the Simpson pick before the draft. Not like "moments before" twitter style now, but well before. Still miffed at that one.
  2. In an odd sense, I felt the same way, too. I sat down a week ago and I came up with a five part article series; Hitters on the rise/decline Pitchers on the rise/decline Overall health (spoiler alert!!) When I came up with it, I really went into the "pitchers on the decline" with the idea that it'd be an easy article...pitchers tank more than any other prospect. Then I sat down and begin writing this and I came to an odd conclusion...outside of like, Drew Gray, there wasn't a "good" Cub pitching prospect that was just having a "bad" year. Now, part of that is that the Cubs' pitching depth has largely been promoted lately; Brown, Wicks, Bigge, Roberts, Little, Palencia...so there's a weird bit of "fog" on the Cubs pitching. There's guys who have struggled with control, like JP Wheat or Nazier Mule, but they're in their infancy as a prospect and I couldn't throw them on this list yet. But most of the Cubs prospect depth left has had neutral seasons (like Cade Horton, who cruised through Tennessee and has struggled with Iowa a bit and a lat injury) or objectively solid seasons. The only real attrition has come through injury. And even then, guys like Franklin started off the year good! It was six innings, so infancy of the season, but it was good! And then TJS. It was somewhat...refreshing?
  3. The reality of pitching prospects is that for every guy on the rise (like Porter Hodge or Hunter Bigge), you're probably able to find two or three who went the opposite way. Due to the stress put on pitchers and the amount of variance that is possible, pitchers come and go freely, often, and unpredictably. This year has been no different, with a handful of Cub prospects who haven't had the kind of year you'd have hoped for at the outset. Caleb Kilian, SP/RP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Kilian isn't really a "prospect", at this point, but he's also not a major-league player, or a consistent... anything, right now, so I'm going to include him here. It's been rough sailing for a while for him--really, since he came up and made his MLB debut. Working through issues with generating in-zone whiffs, then control issues, the hope was that the big righty would figure it out this year in Iowa and maybe be a bullpen arm. Instead, Kilian got hurt and has missed the entire year. At the age of 26, being rostered on the 40-man, this is the kind of season he couldn't have to keep his MLB future alight. The good news for KIlian is that, reportedly, he's been hitting near 100 mph on his rehab assignment, and maybe (just maybe) a switch to the pen can unlock something. I still fear that there's no chase pitch, even if he's throwing insanely hard. He's struggled to find any sort of breaking ball that induces strikeouts and chases, with a failed spike-curve and changeup in his wake. Kohl Franklin, SP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) My heart hurts having to put Franklin on this list, as I've been a big fan of him since his draft year. Franklin has always had almost everything you want in a pitcher: He had the size, he had the stuff, he had the look. He just never had the health or the control (two major parts of being a quality pitcher). Entering 2024, it was a big "make-or-break" year for the righty, as he was 24 and starting to enter the range where you'd have to move on from him if he couldn't put it together. Through his first six innings on the season, Franklin looked great; striking out five, walking none, and even earning a promotion after one start! Then... Tommy John. Franklin will miss the entire 2024 season, and likely most of 2025, rehabbing and getting his strength back. That means he'll be almost 26 years old when we see him next. Now, that's not the complete end of him. Bigge made his debut at 26, to a chorus of cheers. But Franklin will have used up most of his prospect slack by then, and may never really be a starter. I'm bummed out. There was a truly good pitcher somewhere in Franklin. It's almost assuredly never going to be found. Brody McCullough, SP, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) This one feels a bit harsh, because when he was pitching, he looked really good again, but his season has also been derailed by injuries. Much like the aforementioned Franklin, his age puts him in a weird place as a prospect. The good news is that McCullough had done enough to get promoted to Tennessee; looked great in his debut with the Smokies; and was looking like he might have been a real find as a 10th-round pick. The bad news is that the 24-year-old has logged just 14 innings on the season, and is just nine months younger than Franklin. Given all that, if we're being fair, he belongs on this list. I don't think it's really his fault. Pitchers do this. They get hurt. We don't really know what the extent of his most recent injury is, only that he hasn't taken the mound since May 10. But considering there isn't news of him throwing or rehabbing out there, it's safe to say that his return isn't imminent, either. The hope is that it's not arm-related, and that McCullough can still get two months or so of action in Double-A for the season, but as of now, he's trending the wrong way--despite the impressive results when he's on the mound. A healthy turnaround could make this placement look bad in the future, and I'd happily own it if he can look more like the healthy guy we've seen at times. Drew Gray, SP, South Bend (High-A) When the Cubs traded Jackson Ferris this offseason, Drew Gray became the de facto top lefty in the Cubs' system. With strong draft pedigree and stuff, the lefty was considered to be a potential breakout candidate, assuming his control came around. Considering he's on this list and not the other one, you can figure out quickly that the control didn't come around. Gray has walked more hitters than he's struck out this season, and has walked three or more hitters in his last eight starts. There's simply no feel for his mechanics right now. The positive is that he's still just 21 years old and left-handed; he's going to get more chances. And while this latest run is terrible, the handful of starts before that were more encouraging (though still problematic, with a 20% walk rate in those 19 innings). Luis Devers, SP, South Bend (High-A) Coming off his MiLB Pitcher of the Year Award in 2022, Devers looked like he might have a future in the Cubs system. There were always issues in his profile: Devers only really had one plus offering (his changeup) and everything else was fairly middling. Sadly, Devers has not been able to use his one good offering to overcome his shortcomings, and coupled with injury and rehab, the prospect light on Devers is very dim right now. Back in South Bend, where he won his award in 2022, the 2024 season has been far less kind. In under 30 innings, Devers has been shelled when he's thrown strikes, sporting an ERA north of 7, and when he's not throwing strikes, has walked almost 15% of the hitters he's faced. At the age of 24, it's looking unlikely that Devers is going to have enough juice to be an MLB arm down the road. Further complicating things is that his profile just doesn't look appealing as a reliever, either. Devers is a cautionary tale of how numbers at lower levels can be deceiving at times, hiding major prospect red flags under the surface. This is why you can never stop stockpiling young talent. it's why, even with one of the most highly-rate farm systems in baseball, the team needs to enter the second half with a focus on bolstering it. Detours are more numerous than direct routes where pitching development is concerned.
  4. There's an old saying: "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect." Why? Because, well, pitching prospects appear out of nowhere, and conversely, they disappear just as fast. Due to a combination of attrition, control problems and the high floor for sheer stuff in the modern game, pitching prospects just tank sometimes. Sadly, as much as we'd hope that every Cub pitching prospect was on the upswing, many aren't. Who landed themselves on the fallers list in the first half of 2024? Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports The reality of pitching prospects is that for every guy on the rise (like Porter Hodge or Hunter Bigge), you're probably able to find two or three who went the opposite way. Due to the stress put on pitchers and the amount of variance that is possible, pitchers come and go freely, often, and unpredictably. This year has been no different, with a handful of Cub prospects who haven't had the kind of year you'd have hoped for at the outset. Caleb Kilian, SP/RP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Kilian isn't really a "prospect", at this point, but he's also not a major-league player, or a consistent... anything, right now, so I'm going to include him here. It's been rough sailing for a while for him--really, since he came up and made his MLB debut. Working through issues with generating in-zone whiffs, then control issues, the hope was that the big righty would figure it out this year in Iowa and maybe be a bullpen arm. Instead, Kilian got hurt and has missed the entire year. At the age of 26, being rostered on the 40-man, this is the kind of season he couldn't have to keep his MLB future alight. The good news for KIlian is that, reportedly, he's been hitting near 100 mph on his rehab assignment, and maybe (just maybe) a switch to the pen can unlock something. I still fear that there's no chase pitch, even if he's throwing insanely hard. He's struggled to find any sort of breaking ball that induces strikeouts and chases, with a failed spike-curve and changeup in his wake. Kohl Franklin, SP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) My heart hurts having to put Franklin on this list, as I've been a big fan of him since his draft year. Franklin has always had almost everything you want in a pitcher: He had the size, he had the stuff, he had the look. He just never had the health or the control (two major parts of being a quality pitcher). Entering 2024, it was a big "make-or-break" year for the righty, as he was 24 and starting to enter the range where you'd have to move on from him if he couldn't put it together. Through his first six innings on the season, Franklin looked great; striking out five, walking none, and even earning a promotion after one start! Then... Tommy John. Franklin will miss the entire 2024 season, and likely most of 2025, rehabbing and getting his strength back. That means he'll be almost 26 years old when we see him next. Now, that's not the complete end of him. Bigge made his debut at 26, to a chorus of cheers. But Franklin will have used up most of his prospect slack by then, and may never really be a starter. I'm bummed out. There was a truly good pitcher somewhere in Franklin. It's almost assuredly never going to be found. Brody McCullough, SP, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) This one feels a bit harsh, because when he was pitching, he looked really good again, but his season has also been derailed by injuries. Much like the aforementioned Franklin, his age puts him in a weird place as a prospect. The good news is that McCullough had done enough to get promoted to Tennessee; looked great in his debut with the Smokies; and was looking like he might have been a real find as a 10th-round pick. The bad news is that the 24-year-old has logged just 14 innings on the season, and is just nine months younger than Franklin. Given all that, if we're being fair, he belongs on this list. I don't think it's really his fault. Pitchers do this. They get hurt. We don't really know what the extent of his most recent injury is, only that he hasn't taken the mound since May 10. But considering there isn't news of him throwing or rehabbing out there, it's safe to say that his return isn't imminent, either. The hope is that it's not arm-related, and that McCullough can still get two months or so of action in Double-A for the season, but as of now, he's trending the wrong way--despite the impressive results when he's on the mound. A healthy turnaround could make this placement look bad in the future, and I'd happily own it if he can look more like the healthy guy we've seen at times. Drew Gray, SP, South Bend (High-A) When the Cubs traded Jackson Ferris this offseason, Drew Gray became the de facto top lefty in the Cubs' system. With strong draft pedigree and stuff, the lefty was considered to be a potential breakout candidate, assuming his control came around. Considering he's on this list and not the other one, you can figure out quickly that the control didn't come around. Gray has walked more hitters than he's struck out this season, and has walked three or more hitters in his last eight starts. There's simply no feel for his mechanics right now. The positive is that he's still just 21 years old and left-handed; he's going to get more chances. And while this latest run is terrible, the handful of starts before that were more encouraging (though still problematic, with a 20% walk rate in those 19 innings). Luis Devers, SP, South Bend (High-A) Coming off his MiLB Pitcher of the Year Award in 2022, Devers looked like he might have a future in the Cubs system. There were always issues in his profile: Devers only really had one plus offering (his changeup) and everything else was fairly middling. Sadly, Devers has not been able to use his one good offering to overcome his shortcomings, and coupled with injury and rehab, the prospect light on Devers is very dim right now. Back in South Bend, where he won his award in 2022, the 2024 season has been far less kind. In under 30 innings, Devers has been shelled when he's thrown strikes, sporting an ERA north of 7, and when he's not throwing strikes, has walked almost 15% of the hitters he's faced. At the age of 24, it's looking unlikely that Devers is going to have enough juice to be an MLB arm down the road. Further complicating things is that his profile just doesn't look appealing as a reliever, either. Devers is a cautionary tale of how numbers at lower levels can be deceiving at times, hiding major prospect red flags under the surface. This is why you can never stop stockpiling young talent. it's why, even with one of the most highly-rate farm systems in baseball, the team needs to enter the second half with a focus on bolstering it. Detours are more numerous than direct routes where pitching development is concerned. View full article
  5. Yeah, that's where I'm at. If you think Moore is a catcher at the next level, then he's 1b for me (Waldschmidt remains my 1a). If you don't believe in the glove, I'm a pass.
  6. Maddux is definitely the best guy to listen to here, but just my two cents and from what I've been reading on others is that there is a concern that the swing profile Smith has may need a full tear down because it became so damn flat in 2024. A lot of Smith's profile is awesome, but it depends on how much work you think you need to do to get him to hit it in the air. Like you said, the picture looks awesome otherwise. But that swing profile as is...well...thats a flag. Is it more of a flag than Tibbs being platoon-y? Or Waldschmidt defensively? Christian Moore's in zone whiff? Hard to say.
  7. All good! It's a lot of things. It's the last handful (I think he just looks better) but overall, I'm encouraged. Like I said, numbers look pretty good, his walks are on the decline, and to me. the HR's are not an issue. I think he's looked like someone who's about to earn a promotion to Tennessee and for me, that's an arrow up!
  8. So, doing some sleuthing, and this is what I've been able to find: 1. Draft reports were "93-95 and touching 98" mph. 2. I can't find anything on twitter I feel comfortable with on the velo. Checked some of the other prospect guys and can't seem to find something, but there's a lot out there and it doesn't mean there isnt! 3. I resorted to searching Will Sanders strikeout videos. Sadly, for this purpose, he tends to strikeout a lot of guys with the breaking ball. Damn! But I did find a video in which the gun in SB was recording 94, which would seem to support pre-draft scouting. Whether that's a full-max-effort pitch or the norm...can't fully say
  9. I'm not sure that's true. From 2021-2023 Yan Gomes had racked up 4 fWAR. That's not super-duper great, but that's 18th in baseball over that span. His 89 wRC+ would have been league average for catchers in every one of those three seasons. He was reaching an age where a complete and utter faceplant was possible, but there wasn't much to suggest it was imminent ether. Miguel Amaya posted a 94 wRC+ last year and was a projected mid-80's wRC+ hitter entering the year using things like ZiPS. He wasn't a great defender, but wasn't bottom barrel in 2023 and the thought process that he'd improve his throwing a year extra out of TJS was logical. He's always been touted as a good defender. I don't think you needed to believe in much to think that the Cubs had probably a decent catching duo. It was never going to likely be a point of strength but it wasn't looking like "worst in the league" by a bit, either. There was some risk inherent, but also some hope that Amaya would take a step forward. Sadly, both Gomes (likely due to age) and Amaya faceplanted bad.
  10. Tom, I wasn't being rude to you.. That's my way of saying "This is my stance, and I'm not really going to change it based on the information you've presented, I'm going to be moving on" in as kind of a way as I can via online forum. I'm sorry if you don't like that, I will continue to do that regardless to move the topic to my rear view mirror. It isn't that I'm trying to upset you, just that I've learned there's a point when someone isn't going to change their point on something subjective and I'm not really going to change mine based on that same subjective thing, so I like to move on when we come to that impasse. We all view subjective things in our own light and I'm not one to go back and forth without any real progress being made. As of now, I feel exactly there with you and I on the Will Sanders topic.
  11. Well, Birdsell gave up four home runs in 80 pitched in South Bend. That's not perfect, but that's pretty close to perfect. Sander's doesn't have a massively inflated HR record for 57 IP. It's not amazing, but is just two home runs more than Sam Armstrong in a sample error difference of innings. So if we're going to give some love to Armstrong, but not Sanders, based on that, it feels...not right. Both made the list for me! In the end, it's not worth re-litigating what we litigated last night. I know where you sit on Sanders. I'm going to respectfully disagree with you there. You're more than welcome to your stance.
  12. GB% tends to remain across levels, as batted ball profile (GB/FB) tends to have the highest correlation from level to level for a pitcher. This is because it ties to pitch mix; guys who throw ground balls will generally throw ground balls level over level because their pitch mix isn't drastically changing (of course, until a team does something!). A mid 42% GB is pretty good - it's not elite-elite but it's generally upper third of MLB SP's. Higher GB% pitchers tend to be more of a FIP beater profile...so where and when guys throw GB's it's a good thing (usually!). The HR's are a different discussion for sure and generally speaks to control; HR's are more likely to be meatballs. If the goal is to compare Will Sanders to perfection, then we're setting the bar too high for fourth round selection. Not to say that Birdsell is perfection, but a sub 4% FB/HR rate in High-A is essentially perfect over 80 IP, too. It's certainly somewhat of a "polish" for Sanders. If there's a positive, it's that four of his six home runs on the season came in just two of his starts...so while we can't ignore the total number, it's clear that this is more of an "intermittent" issue and less of an "every start" issue. Those are things that aren't so scary and can be ironed out more as we go. I also am not super worried about six home runs over the course of 55 IP. That's not amazing, but it's in the fine category. With that said, I do like Birdsell just as a prospect more than Sanders. It's not leaps and bounds, but it's a bit. He's at a more advanced level and his funk adds something. I'm not entirely convinced on his whiff numbers yet, but we'll see. This isn't so much an article ranking prospects, just highlighting who I think has improved their stock. Much like the next one will be less about a ranking and those who's stock is down (sometimes for things out of their immediate control like injury!).
  13. Kiley McDaniels posted his final tier lists. Names of interest to the Cubs (and myself): Tibbs at 11 (45+) Yesevage at 14 (final 45+) Waldschmidt at 15 (top 45) King at 16 Smith at 17 Malcolm Moore at 20
  14. Best thing about being a teacher is that I've got the summer off and can draft-dork it out. Complicating things a bit this year is a move I'm in the process of completing on Friday, but I should be back online by midday Monday if the internet company doesn't brush me off!
  15. Nothing I can find. I'd guess, just on timelines that he's not super far away from some "throwing on the side" reports to pop up. I'd guess he's in Triple-A action again by early-ish or so August if it was a minor lat strain.
  16. We all have our things, right? I remember watching the Baez/Vogelbach draft at my favorite bar. I requested they put that on the TV and being quite happy with how that turned out (was really hoping for Lindor or Starling to drop. One was better than the other haha). I was the only dork in the bar who gave a horsefeathers. Even my friends were miffed. I'm used to being the oddball who cares about some random 18 year old shortstop out of southern Cal and why we should all be jazzed about his glove in six years time. But that's what's cool about forums and this place; I get to write dorky articles and discuss this nonsense with people who somewhat care about that oddball niche I have. Sucks for yall. 🤣
  17. The first half has seen the Cubs promote a handful of pitching prospects, headlined by Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks. While, generally, the Cubs' position players are thought to be "ahead" of the pitchers, the system has some exciting arms moving up the ranks. Which ones make our prospects on the rise list? Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports Much has been made over the years about the Cubs' inconsistent or insufficient pitching development, but I think there are a lot of good seeds in their farm right now, and that the Cubs are moving forward. That doesn't mean everything is perfect, but I think they're trending in the right direction. A handful of notable Cub pitching prospects have made some gains this year by either flashing improved stuff, improved control, or simply, improved health. Hunter Bigge, RP Chicago Cubs (MLB) There probably isn't a prospect who's made his name known on Twitter in the 2024 season more than Bigge. He's a 26-year-old reliever, who signed with the Cubs in 2019 out of Harvard, of all places. While he's shown the ability to post big strikeout numbers in the past, the walk rates have always been rough, and Bigge wasn't really on call-up watch in April. On the season, though, the Ivy Leaguer has posted wonderful strikeout and walk numbers. Most notably, his non-competitive pitch rates have plummeted. Bigge's bread and butter is a heater that touches 100 mph and has a whiff rate you can dream on. For the season, hitters have swung and missed on one out of every three tries against the heater, within the zone. That's elite stuff. Bigge has recently been called up to the parent club, and should make his debut shortly. There's a high-leverage reliever here, as long as he can control the walk rates. Porter Hodge, RP Chicago Cubs (MLB) I am keeping Hodge on this list as of now, because he entered the season as a prospect and (unlike Ben Brown) hasn't spent the entire season in the big leagues. I wrote about Hodge in the winter as someone I really liked to break out, and lo and behold, I got one right! I don't always get 'em right, so I've got to celebrate a bit here. Thus far on the season, the big righthander has looked phenomenal with the Cubs. He's sporting an ERA below 1.50; he's inducing ground balls at over a 43% clip; he's yet to give up a barrel; he's kept the walk rate to 11.5%; and he's striking out almost a third of the hitters he sees. That's back-end stuff. We're still in the early days of Hodge as an MLB player, as he's still under 15 innings of a sample size. But it's hard to say that many people saw this kind of breakout from the cutter specialist, and it's hard not to get a little excited. Brandon Birdsell, SP Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Birdsell was a good find for the Cubs in the 2022 draft. A fifth-round pick out of Texas Tech who had dealt with some injuries, Birdsell was probably too good to go so low on talent alone. The righty isn't overpowering (with a strikeout rate just over 20%, the punchout isn't in his repertoire right now), but he also walks next-to no one, with a walk rate under 5%. I'd feel a bit better if Birdsell was a ground-ball machine (he's not), but with funky arm action and a lot of strikes being thrown, it's probable that he makes an MLB start in his career, and possibly, many. I keep thinking about how the Cubs have gotten the most out of Javier Assad, and while they're different pitchers who go about things in their own ways, I have some confidence that there's a back-of-the-rotation arm in Birdsell. With the youngster having recently promoted to Iowa, it'll be interesting to see the Savant data on him, and whether the Cubs try to do some of the seam-shifted wake stuff that they've done with Jameson Taillon and the aforementioned Assad. Will Sanders, SP, South Bend (High-A) In many ways, Will Sanders feels like a similar pick to Birdsell: a fourth-round pick who, on talent alone, probably was too good to be picked that late. Sanders didn't have a great end to his career in South Carolina in college, and the Cubs picked up on him. In his draft year, the 4.91 ERA doesn't look great, but a lot of that was issues he had at the start of his time in South Bend. The former Gamecock got rocked in his first two goes, but since then, he has been much better, posting a mid-3s ERA, a strikeout rate over 26% and a walk rate under 10%. Unlike Birdsell, Sanders is very much a groundball pitcher, so that helps to eliminate runners through ground balls and keeps the ball in the park. Much like Birdsell, though, there's a good chance Sanders makes some starts in his career, though whether it's as organizational depth, or as a fixture in the fourth or fifth spot in a rotation is hard to tell. Either way, he's looked pretty good, and I think there's an MLB future here. Sam Armstrong, SP, South Bend (High-A) The Cubs had a pretty solid 2023 draft (just wait, it's not done!) when you're adding the 13th round selection out of Old Dominion on your risers spot! So far, in 62 innings, Armstrong has posted wonderful numbers in South Bend, striking out 24.7% of hitters, walking 7% of them, keeping ground balls over 40% and maintaining solid home-run rates on flies. Armstrong has formed a nice duo with Sanders so far. While you can point to Armstrong being older than Sanders as a negative, he's also not coming from the SEC, so this is a larger leap for him, as well. He's a bit maxed out on his body, standing at 6'2" and weighing 245 pounds, but he maintains a low- to mid-90s fastball, which is likely enough. Much like the aforementioned former South Carolinian, the upside here is likely more "back end" than "front end", but getting anything out of a 13th rounder is a win. Jaxon Wiggins, SP, Myrtle Beach (Low-A) Wiggins was a divisive pick in 2023, with many fans and pundits on the internet upset at the Cubs for getting a bit "weird" with the pick. Wiggins, whose overall college numbers at Arkansas looked rough, was fresh off Tommy John and hadn't really been seen, outside of some fall action. He was recommended by Ty Nichols, however. We should have known not to doubt the man who also brought in Cade Horton, under similar circumstances. It's only Low-A, but working his way back from surgery, Wiggins has looked awesome, flashing high-90s stuff and eliminating a lot of the walk concerns (so far). I'm not willing to say "all fixed!" there yet--Wiggins is likely too good for Myrtle Beach talent alone--so it'll be worth monitoring how well he progresses when he gets a bump to South Bend, but it's hard to say his arrow is pointing anywhere other than "up" right now. The Cubs aren't yet a pitching factory on par with the teams who do that best, but they're making progress. As discouraging as the big-league results have been this year, there are good things percolating. View full article
  18. Much has been made over the years about the Cubs' inconsistent or insufficient pitching development, but I think there are a lot of good seeds in their farm right now, and that the Cubs are moving forward. That doesn't mean everything is perfect, but I think they're trending in the right direction. A handful of notable Cub pitching prospects have made some gains this year by either flashing improved stuff, improved control, or simply, improved health. Hunter Bigge, RP Chicago Cubs (MLB) There probably isn't a prospect who's made his name known on Twitter in the 2024 season more than Bigge. He's a 26-year-old reliever, who signed with the Cubs in 2019 out of Harvard, of all places. While he's shown the ability to post big strikeout numbers in the past, the walk rates have always been rough, and Bigge wasn't really on call-up watch in April. On the season, though, the Ivy Leaguer has posted wonderful strikeout and walk numbers. Most notably, his non-competitive pitch rates have plummeted. Bigge's bread and butter is a heater that touches 100 mph and has a whiff rate you can dream on. For the season, hitters have swung and missed on one out of every three tries against the heater, within the zone. That's elite stuff. Bigge has recently been called up to the parent club, and should make his debut shortly. There's a high-leverage reliever here, as long as he can control the walk rates. Porter Hodge, RP Chicago Cubs (MLB) I am keeping Hodge on this list as of now, because he entered the season as a prospect and (unlike Ben Brown) hasn't spent the entire season in the big leagues. I wrote about Hodge in the winter as someone I really liked to break out, and lo and behold, I got one right! I don't always get 'em right, so I've got to celebrate a bit here. Thus far on the season, the big righthander has looked phenomenal with the Cubs. He's sporting an ERA below 1.50; he's inducing ground balls at over a 43% clip; he's yet to give up a barrel; he's kept the walk rate to 11.5%; and he's striking out almost a third of the hitters he sees. That's back-end stuff. We're still in the early days of Hodge as an MLB player, as he's still under 15 innings of a sample size. But it's hard to say that many people saw this kind of breakout from the cutter specialist, and it's hard not to get a little excited. Brandon Birdsell, SP Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Birdsell was a good find for the Cubs in the 2022 draft. A fifth-round pick out of Texas Tech who had dealt with some injuries, Birdsell was probably too good to go so low on talent alone. The righty isn't overpowering (with a strikeout rate just over 20%, the punchout isn't in his repertoire right now), but he also walks next-to no one, with a walk rate under 5%. I'd feel a bit better if Birdsell was a ground-ball machine (he's not), but with funky arm action and a lot of strikes being thrown, it's probable that he makes an MLB start in his career, and possibly, many. I keep thinking about how the Cubs have gotten the most out of Javier Assad, and while they're different pitchers who go about things in their own ways, I have some confidence that there's a back-of-the-rotation arm in Birdsell. With the youngster having recently promoted to Iowa, it'll be interesting to see the Savant data on him, and whether the Cubs try to do some of the seam-shifted wake stuff that they've done with Jameson Taillon and the aforementioned Assad. Will Sanders, SP, South Bend (High-A) In many ways, Will Sanders feels like a similar pick to Birdsell: a fourth-round pick who, on talent alone, probably was too good to be picked that late. Sanders didn't have a great end to his career in South Carolina in college, and the Cubs picked up on him. In his draft year, the 4.91 ERA doesn't look great, but a lot of that was issues he had at the start of his time in South Bend. The former Gamecock got rocked in his first two goes, but since then, he has been much better, posting a mid-3s ERA, a strikeout rate over 26% and a walk rate under 10%. Unlike Birdsell, Sanders is very much a groundball pitcher, so that helps to eliminate runners through ground balls and keeps the ball in the park. Much like Birdsell, though, there's a good chance Sanders makes some starts in his career, though whether it's as organizational depth, or as a fixture in the fourth or fifth spot in a rotation is hard to tell. Either way, he's looked pretty good, and I think there's an MLB future here. Sam Armstrong, SP, South Bend (High-A) The Cubs had a pretty solid 2023 draft (just wait, it's not done!) when you're adding the 13th round selection out of Old Dominion on your risers spot! So far, in 62 innings, Armstrong has posted wonderful numbers in South Bend, striking out 24.7% of hitters, walking 7% of them, keeping ground balls over 40% and maintaining solid home-run rates on flies. Armstrong has formed a nice duo with Sanders so far. While you can point to Armstrong being older than Sanders as a negative, he's also not coming from the SEC, so this is a larger leap for him, as well. He's a bit maxed out on his body, standing at 6'2" and weighing 245 pounds, but he maintains a low- to mid-90s fastball, which is likely enough. Much like the aforementioned former South Carolinian, the upside here is likely more "back end" than "front end", but getting anything out of a 13th rounder is a win. Jaxon Wiggins, SP, Myrtle Beach (Low-A) Wiggins was a divisive pick in 2023, with many fans and pundits on the internet upset at the Cubs for getting a bit "weird" with the pick. Wiggins, whose overall college numbers at Arkansas looked rough, was fresh off Tommy John and hadn't really been seen, outside of some fall action. He was recommended by Ty Nichols, however. We should have known not to doubt the man who also brought in Cade Horton, under similar circumstances. It's only Low-A, but working his way back from surgery, Wiggins has looked awesome, flashing high-90s stuff and eliminating a lot of the walk concerns (so far). I'm not willing to say "all fixed!" there yet--Wiggins is likely too good for Myrtle Beach talent alone--so it'll be worth monitoring how well he progresses when he gets a bump to South Bend, but it's hard to say his arrow is pointing anywhere other than "up" right now. The Cubs aren't yet a pitching factory on par with the teams who do that best, but they're making progress. As discouraging as the big-league results have been this year, there are good things percolating.
  19. I'd like to see someone tactically versatile. It's why I didn't love Marsch yeah he's done decent with Canada but his big knock at Leeds was that once things didn't work, Jesse had no answers. He just kept banging his head against the wall. Truly, someone like Thomas Frank is the answer. Now, it won't be Frank for a lot of reasons; one, he's not leaving a PL club like Brentford for a national job in the States. Maybe if Denmark came calling, but even then, I think it's kind of a very special place to pull him out of there. But realistically, his style of being very tactically flexible and hitting teams on the counter I think plays really well for the USMNT. He can play tika-taka when he's got the side (I.E. see Brentford in Championship) but when he's outgunned, with less talent can out tactic even some of the best (I.E. pulled the double on City in 22/23). Find me a Frank.
  20. I still do not hate what I've seen the last handful of starts, too! Like I said, it's pretty unfair to ding him for the 29th; he was cruising...then he couldn't grip a baseball through rain. No blame from me. The one blowup on the 18th aside, I don't hate the last handful and I think he's been pretty good. End result, I stand by my assessment. No worries if you see it differently.
  21. I've got a whole pitchers article coming, Tom! This was just hitters. But I bet Sanders won't be the only South Bend Cub pitcher who was taken in the 2023 draft to make the list, either... But let's be real, there's no reason to clip at his last six like you did. Unless you want to conviently cut out his run from April 24th through May 25th (a whole month) where over 23 IP, Sanders struck out 25 and gave up five runs. That's pretty unfair. So let's expand that out. If we cut just his first two starts (which, I think we can see are the two weird ones on the season based on results, length of start and realizing theyre his first two professional starts and he hadn't pitched in real game since last year), this is his line: 3.68 ERA, 26.1 K%, 9.1 BB%, and he's managed 4+ IP in eight of those 12 starts. You're right, his last six or three starts don't look great...but the first sample includes his only other start all season where he got blown up (June 18th where he gave up five runs in three innings) and both include June 29th which was a rain-makeup game in which Sanders was the pitcher of record when the rain hit and he never got out of the third (game was rained out while he was pitching) and Sanders was clearly struggling that inning as he threw two wild pitches through the rain. I think that's a much more indicative line for why I think Sanders has done well on the season. He's also managed a GB% of 42%, which is good news as well. I don't think he's a stud, but he looks good on the eye test through South Bend, and he's passed the statistical test over his last 51.1 IP. I wouldn't say it's been a perfect ride, but as a fourth round selection, this has been a good showing in South Bend for someone who didn't have a particularly great Junior year. It's certainly a bounceback. He doesn't have to have posted eye popping numbers to have his arrow pointing up. If you don't like Sanders year, hey, that's a you thing! But I've been encouraged by a pretty solid front nine for Will and look forward to seeing what he does when/if he moves to Tennessee to see if he can continue.
  22. Wicks! horsefeathers, I knew I was forgetting someone. Which tracks, because Wicks is a K-State guy and Nichols is the guy for that area.
  23. Caldwell at 19?! Man, my internet sleuthing was way off there. Everything I read on him made me feel somewhat "whelmed". Like a Bradford from last year. Why I guessed on the 3rd or so. Ole Miss is an SEC commit so that's never cheap, but I wasn't super jazzed there as a top-20 guy. Feels like a Will Taylor type a few years ago, as well. Actually I like that more than a Bradford comp. Carson makes sense at 78. Puts him in that possible 2nd/3rd round over or later in the draft as he drops a bit due to signability. Saw he got invited to the Rangers prospect shindig in November as a top-40 guy, and then PL had him as an HM...so late 70s splits the general difference. Interesting on Lovich from BA. The PG and other articles on him kept talking about hitting. They *did* mention his throwing motion from the OF but it was giving me big "this guy is a bat" over "this guy is an arm" vibes.
  24. Only can accept half of the sleuthing! The guy who runs Savermetrics (not sure if you're familiar with him - he breaks almost every Cub signing on twitter) was a PSD Alum and a friend of mine. There's a small discord of ~10 or so us from the old haunt who still keep in touch and he's one of the guys. So he does all of the social media stuff...dude's a guru. So I can't take credit for the follows. There's a strong correlation between follows and Cubs draft picks. So it's a fun way to preview where the Cubs might go. With Nichols, it counts even more. All of the scouting and information is on my end, however. So he gives me the names and I go digging through websites and google until I can find stuff. Sometimes, it's easy, and other times, they're both named "Alex Grant" and are left handed pitchers and I'm not entirely sure which horsefeathers guy it is! But yeah, the Arkansas connect is real. The second he sent me the name "Carson Wiggins" I was 98% certain I knew it was Jaxson's brother because of it.
  25. Good information on Ty Nichols and his social media: he's recently followed five players and they're the only five players he's followed since last draft. Nichols is the area scout who was credited with Jaxson Wiggins (this is important!) and Cade Horton the last two years. He's someone to follow and who holds water on draft day, so any number of these names could be called, and I'd bet at least one does. - Carson Wiggins (yes, his brother is Jaxson). Carson is a RHP committed to Arkansas (shocker), my guess is that he isn't a 2nd round overslot, but could be a later round, or 11+ round overslot like Hope or Wheat. Was invited to Texas as a top-40 player but Prospects Live had him off their top-100 prep players and in the HM section. - Slade Caldwell is an slight-framed CF'er committed to Ole Miss. Very athletic, not a ton of power. Feels like a mid-round overslot or 11+ round overslot - Eli Buxton is a RHP/1b/OF who stands 6"6. My guess is he's a pitcher at the next level from what I can find on him. He's committed to Arizona State, an easier commit to yank out of with money. - Alex Grant is a LHP committed to Vandy. I can't find a ton on him. Looks like he sits 92 mph with the fastball, though others I've seen he tops out at 88mph. He's from Connecticut, not a hot bed of baseball, so probably why I'm struggling. Vanderbilt commits are traditionally some of the hardest to breakout of, I'm having a hard time guessing where he'd be picked. Vandy has "2nd round" feel to it, but there's just a dearth of information Edit: Based on location, I'm not sure this is the same Alex Grant. There are two Alex Grants in this draft. The other four are all from OK, AR, and KS, but there's another Alex Grant, another LHP, from Texas. I think that might be who it is based on Nichols area usually being that area and not CT He's a LHP, with sinking action. 3 pitch mix. No velo readouts. No commitment information I can find. Sounds like he's a projectable LHP. That's...that's like it. - Eli Lovich is an OF'er also committed to Arkansas. He's lanky and tall, 6"4, 175lbs. Looks like he's pitched in the past, but everything I can find is about him as a hitter, so I'd assume he's a hitter next level. Looks like a Cody Bellinger, tall and lanky type, with the arm I'd assume CF is on the table. Kansas player of the year. That feels like a 2nd round overslot potential.
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