Jason Ross

Most of these, I'll be honest and say "I have no idea". Truly. And to be even more frank; I'm not even sure I'd be able to find out! I do think most of the facilities are closed down, but I'd have to imagine the organization has a way to be involved. But I'm guessing. I'll reiterate: I don't think we need to be worried about losing the 2027 season. The owners have too much vested in that. They have streaming rights that end at the end of 2027. Nothing says "bad bargaining power" than "we just didn't play a game". We're probably going to lose a few games. I think that's reasonable to expect. But I think any fear that 2027 won't happen is going to end up being wasted worrying. While there is a slim possibility that we lose the full year, I think that's a pretty low outcome and I'd rather the Cubs do what they think is best for Owen regardless of that low-percentage outcome. As it comes to Ayers, he's definitely more of a work defensively, but that's a lot of just "catchers as a whole". He wasn't always a catcher in college so this is a position he doesn't have as many reps at and he's been in the system only for 2 years. Catching is a tough gig. I can tell you there are some teams in the league who don't believe in his receiving and have him graded as a 1b. I can also tell you the Chicago Cubs believe they have amazing catching coaching and don't find it an issue. We'll see who's right, but the team has done a wonderful job working with Miguel Amaya, I think they made real progress with Ballesteros (though they did not believe he was ever going to get there) and have worked well with Kelly to maximize him. They also identified players like Ariel Armas who still crush it defensively (his bat is just so bad).

I can tell you this: the behind the scenes chatter on Ayers very much is in the vein of what Sharma said. This team adores Owen Ayers. Sharma also wouldn't say the Cubs were considering it if they weren't. Maybe they won't. Maybe they will. I cannot tell you one way or another. But I think the lockout thing is absolutely not going to be their reasoning. The chances we have no baseball are incredibly overblown. I think that's like a 5% outcome.

I actually don't control the links when it comes to that. It's an auto-linker that notices names and then auto-creates them. Sadly, Pedro Ramirez is such a common name, it thought I was talking about one, when I was talking about another! Any source I use will be linked by me, however.

On a personal point him switching to #4 was great for me. My wife's favorite number is #4 and getting her into a PCA uniform for her first game at Wrigley was an easy sell. All I needed was someone like Dylan Carlson to be #4 this year and I'd be stuck with that for years.

I wouldn't say he's great either. He's very "average-ish" but average-ish in a way that the Cubs defense can help become above average. For example, he's rocking a 4.03 ERA compared to a 4.39 xFIP since coming to the Cubs. The xFIP is a little below average for a SP and the ERA above. Everyone is going to be rocking with some less-than-talented players at the tail of their rotation for much of the year. The key is finding ways to make them up. Anecdotally, there will always be games where players get fortunate or unfortunate. But I'd feel comfortable with David Peterson as my 5th best SP in front of this defense. In front of a porous one? Far less comfortable.

I've really grown fond of Ramirez as a player. He does so many things well. My one complaint is such a petty one: #75 is a bad number and I need him to pick a cooler one.

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images The concept of the super-sub was popularized about 15 years ago with Ben Zobrist. He was famous for playing across the field; a plug-and-play hitter who could hold his own (or better) across the diamond at almost any position outside of pitcher or catcher proved to be an immensely valuable asset. The Cubs brought the switch-hitting Zobrist in for the 2016 World Series run where he continued to gain fame for this style of play. In an ironic (and often forgotten) twist of fate, it was Zobrist who earned 119 starts at second base, pushing Javier Baez into the "Zobrist" role (he started 25+ games at at least three positions that season). As pitching staffs have expanded and benches have shrunk, this archetype of player is in higher demand than ever. And while teams search for this jack of all trades constantly, it's truly hard to find someone capable of doing it all. Entering 2026, the Cubs had thought they had found their modern day version of this in Matt Shaw; a player drafted as a shortstop, converted to third base in the minors, who would then play across the outfield this season. And through the first few weeks of the year, it certainly looked like they had nailed that. Shaw was looking promising defensively in right field and crushing lefties. However, through a series of wrist sprains, a new challenger to the throne has appeared: Pedro Ramirez. While it would be unfair to say that Ramirez came from nowhere, it's probably important to remember that when the first pitch of the regular season was thrown, no one thought this was going to be the case. He was always an interesting prospect, but starting the year with no experience above Knoxville as a borderline organizational top-10 prospect, it seemed unlikely that people would be clamoring to see him start come August of the same year. Yet here we are. Not only did he absolutely smash the competition in Iowa in under 30 games, he's doing similar things in Chicago. So far against some of the best competition the planet has to offer, the rookie has compiled 124 plate appearances and posted a 117 wRC+ in those plate appearances. Overall, he's managed to add 0.8 fWAR in value; in just 45 games, that is a fairly impressive number. While Ramirez hasn't played as many positions as Ben Zobrist (not yet, anyway) his versatility and flexibility gives the Cubs something important: options. You can reasonably start him at second or third against most pitchers to give Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson (by sliding Hoerner over to short) and Bregman pseudo days offs at the designated hitter position. He's also started games at DH himself—a 117 wRC+ will allow you to do that. The team has been willing to trust the rookie in some fairly tough spots, too; he's earned playing time against pitchers such as Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes in the last few weeks alone. YkJMQnpfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVFGUVZ3VUZVUXNBRDFWWFVnQUhCUVpTQUFCVFd3UUFCMVpSVXdJQUJRY0hDVkJY.mp4 One of the ways he's been able to accrue offensive value is by immediately showing a strong plate approach. We have seen rookies come up and struggle recently, even with hitters who have shown an aptitude for making solid contact (notably Matt Shaw and Moises Ballesteros). Instead, Ramirez has managed to put up a sub-20 K%, a decent 8% walk rate, and an excellent 87% zone-contact rate. This is a strong approach coupled with a lot of contact, and it's an excellent sign for a young talent to grasp that part of the game right away. He's also managed to do so while posting pretty decent exit velocities. That may not sound like a win on paper, but many times players achieve high contact rates by trading weak contact for strikeouts, which lowers their exit velocities. Not so much for Ramirez, who's EV's would rate in the top-half of the league (if he qualified). Ramirez has been valuable across the field, as well, which makes him even more useful. It's one thing to be able to stand at a position with a glove in hand, but it's another to excel at those positions. Many times, "versatility" comes with the drawback of not being particularly strong defensively at any single position and being just "okay" at a lot of them. While he hasn't played a ton of innings (and we're still very much in small sample territory here) he's graded out neutral at second and as a +2 DRS at third. The Cubs value defensive ability as much as any team in the league, so by showing he's not only capable at multiple positions, but that he can maintain continuity and quality, it's almost assuredly helped him gain favor with the organization. Another aspect Ramirez has been strong at: baserunning. Sporting a 76th percentile sprint speed, he's added value when on the basepaths. Not only has he added five stolen bases (without being caught once), he's graded out very favorably by FanGraphs' baserunning metrics; adding 1.2 baserunning runs above average. The more places he can impact the game, the more the team can find places to deploy the youngster. Not everything is perfect, however, and frankly, it would be weird if it was. His xwOBA (.298) is much lower than his actual wOBA (.341). His batted ball data is more "good" than "great." His barrel% is very low, he does chase a decent amount, and his expected slugging of .355 leads a lot to be desired. He's also doing this in fairly curated appearances; he's not starting every day and it goes to assume the times he's getting his name penciled into a lineup are for specific reasons that work to his advantage. One example of this is how he has been utilized mostly against right-handed pitchers; his batted ball data in Iowa was much worse against lefties and the Cubs have made sure that roughly 75% of his plate appearances at the MLB level have come against his stronger side. The good news is that we're still talking about a 22-year-old rookie and that much of this data is just in it's infancy. For example, faster players have a tendency to out-play their xwOBA. We're also far too early in the career of Pedro Ramirez to get too stuck into the expected data. He's just barely over the stabilization point (which would take just sheer luck out of the equation) but as a rookie, we know that these things take a bit of an ebb-and-flow as the player learns and adjusts. He will naturally improve on his expected data as he gets comfortable, learns to pull major-league pitching a bit more, and figures out how the best pitchers on the planet look to attack him. Best of all is that while it would have initially seemed like Pedro Ramirez and Matt Shaw would tread much of the same ground, causing them to be superfluous, there is likely enough differentiation that they both can have prominent roles in 2027. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, fixtures of the Cubs' corner outfield spots for the last half-decade (and for Happ, longer than that) are both free agents at years' end. It wouldn't be shocking to see the Cubs to bring back one, but it's unlikely that they bring back both. Either Ramirez or Shaw (or a platoon!) could reasonably be counted upon for a corner spot next year and the other can revert back into the Swiss-Army-knife role due to their versatility. While Moises Ballesteros had entered the 2026 season as the de facto designated hitter, the Cubs' further cleared the runway for both of their versatile infield/outfielders by trading him to the Angels in the Ryan Zeferjahn trade. By moving the left-handed hitting Ballesteros, the Cubs did clear up some overlap in Ramirez and their slugging designated hitter/catcher as both look more useful against the same side of pitching. While it wouldn't be entirely fair to say the Cubs' chose their fighter, it's not a stretch to say they preferred Ramirez thanks to his all-around skillset and versatility. View full article

I think we over value what two or three weeks of PAs does for a kid. If the Cubs are operating on August 31st under the notion that Owen Ayers is going to be apart of the catching tandem at the MLB level in 2027, I doubt that's going to change based on two weeks. That decision is based on a hell of a lot more than a few weeks and will have already been made. As well, not all development shows up in a box score. I'll share an anecdote I've been told about him: he locks himself in the Trajekt machine and just hits off of Misiorwski over, and over, and over. He can do that in Chicago too. It's not *exactly* like a PA but that's real learning off real tough pitching parameters. For the unaware, Trajekt recreates any pitchers motion and stuff. So it isn't hitting off a human, but its probably the next best thing on the planet. Plug in Misiorwski and it's coming in 100mph and his slider shape from his arm angle and release point. These things are wild. There's real value in that. Mostly, I think we should remember that there are more than one ways to skin a cat. It feels like visible development happens when a kid is in Iowa because we can turn on MiLB.TV and see it. We can't see Owen doing the Trajekt or working with pitchers with the Cubs for September...but I'd argue that's still development. And it takes a shift in thinking a bit to maybe see that and the Cubs' perspective. As it pertains to the 40-man, I used to worry about that a lot more in the past. But every year we get worried about whether or not the Cubs will add a fringe-guy, and then when they don't people panic. Michael Arias. Alexander Canario. Where are both of those guys today? How many posts panicking about them were made here, on reddit, X, bluesky? They may get burned on that one day, but most of that hand-wringing is wasted breath. There is a reason the guy they end up not adding wasn't an automatic add; they're fringe prospects to begin with. It isn't like the Cubs are exposing Josiah Hartshorn. It's usually a guy who's ranked like 23rd in the system. For a TL;DR...it's a lot of words to say; I wouldn't worry. If the Cubs add Ayers, I'd be more excited about how the Cubs feel about a 19th round pick that what it means about the 46th best player in the organization. Whomever that might be.

Yeah, heading into today, his slider was up 2 mph and had shifted from glove side to arm side run (for simplicity, it's gone from a traditional slider to a reverse one in movement). Important to note he's thrown the pitch before both at 91mph and with arm side run this year with the Cubs, but they were outliers (it was around 10% or so of the time oh his entire slider usage) and so far in Iowa he has thrown the slider exclusively arm side and over 90mph. That's indicative of a change. Sadly, I can only get Statcast data out of Triple-A and MLB. But I got double-whammied last night as strong storms across the Bluegrass region knocked out my power so I've been in the dark (literally) since 7pm. Which is just awesome...tomorrow is the first day of school and I teach middle school. Great omen, right? I'll be able to peek at the video whenever these storms stop and the power comes back and confirm the velo, but won't be able to confirm the movement. But I think one will beget the other logically, so I think I can backwards engineer a connection. Now if there's something I'm working through yet it's the implications. Like what this pitch is and how it functions within his subset. I have a fairly wild working theory (data to support it so it's not that crazy town) and I've got a few lines out there to figure out if I belong in a baseball asylum or if I'm actually on to something. So hopefully I'll be able to finish my article that I've been working on for two weeks now and be able to share with y'all how batshit I am in a few days.

One thing we have to keep in mind; the Cubs are *very* big on the soft skills. This includes things like letting rookies come up and spend time with players and the club that they plan on being there next year. They have been, at times, more than willing to let a rookie hang out with the club on the bench for a few weeks (much the chagrin of fans). Getting Ayers up in September is likely as much about 2026 as it is about their 2027 plans; getting him to work on the side with pitchers that he will catch. It's not the same, but it's been reported that Tatsuya Imai has struggled in Houston, in part, to adjusting to the organization. Maybe that's an Imai thing, but the Cubs have very much valued ensuring their Japanese players come over and get the all-star experience in how they adjust to life in a new part of the world. It very much could also be a Houston thing, too. It's these soft skills the org believes in. So while there are some roster ramifications if the organization is telling you that they are more interested in getting Ayers here for a month than worrying about a fringe 40-man add...it's probably worth seeing that to them, that month for Ayers is more valuable. And likely signals how they feel about him once again. And considering that the Cubs have done a great job bringing along young players recently, probably worth it to defer to them on this. To be fair I didn't expect him to be on the 40-man by September myself a bit ago. Based on how the club acted at the deadline, however and how they treated him in trade talks, this isn't that shocking any more. I'm fairly convinced this organization is very, very high on him.

If the Cubs aren't likely to give him five years today, then they were almost assuredly not going to offer him a five-year extension anytime before today. Nothing he has done in 2026 changed the math on what teams were going to offer him, either. He hasn't had some transformative year. In fact, it's not even, really, a career year at this stage. So to wrap it all up succinctly; there was probably never an opportunity in which the Cubs were going to be able to sign Suzuki to a contract that was below his market value will be this offseason.

I understand that there is a possibility that the MLB season simply doesn't happen. It is an outcome that is within possibility. But I also think it's a very unlikely one and if we take a step back we begin to see how much the MLB ownership has a vested interest in making sure that isn't the case. They are a group who has constantly cared about now more than future dollars. Losing a full season, even in the name of a cap is just not how these people operate.

Don't they know that I need the statcast data on his slider?! How could the Cubs do this to me?

It's Field of Dreams day. Just a guess but they may have moved him around a day to ensure that the MLB guy doesn't soak up that experience.

Sprint speed is only considered for "topped" and "weak" contact on the infield, correct. So while it can add things in to it's equation it is only very specific hit types and in a general sense it's widely agreed that players who are fast will tend to out wOBA their xwOBA, regardless. (You just happened to stumble upon a subject I did a decent amount of research on today as I worked on a piece about Pedro Ramirez)

What a wild ride he's been on.

The Athletic doesn't really mention anything about who the Cubs discussed, but if I had a guess, the Cubs were hoping that the Blue Jays, fresh off dealing Nimaala to the Angels, preferred Rojas to Nimaala and could scoop up Soriano. Doesn't sound like it went too far, but based on how the day went, that feels like a reasonable guess.

Zumach had suggested that perhaps it wasn't that the Cubs were scared Kepley would get exposed at Double-A but that that they were actually high on Kepley and didn't want him to jump to Double-A and put up impressive numbers/data.

There were zero outs, in a game in August, in a game that was anything but "must win". What if the pinch runner never scores? You want to just have James Triantos throw the gear on? It's easy with hindsight to know Pete gets a single, but we didn't know. One strike out, a ground out and a fly out later and it wouldn't mean anything. C'mon. We know that's a bad idea. There's a reason every team has an emergency catcher but a tied game in the bottom of the 11th in early August isn't an emergency.

Josiah Hartshorn Hartshorn is the clear #1 after the TDL. Possible top-50 in baseball. Bat so good 1b threat might not matter. Owen Ayers Cubs treated him like a top-50 prospect at the deadline, so I'll treat him close to that. If you believe in the defense and aren't scared off by the age, he's a great prospect.Cade Townsend 1st round pick, shiny new toy syndrome. With Wiggins looking rusty I'll give him the nod.Jaxon Wiggins Hasn't really pitched much for a year. Looks rusty. Stuff is taking baby steps back to where it was, control needs dusting off.Kane Kepley Need to see him do it against Double-A. Think maybe the Cubs like him more than I do. Ethan Conrad 1st round pick, derailed with injuries. Upside there.Kaleb Wing IDK the injury extent yet, but the stuff popped. High praise in the ACL. Caden Sorrell Love the power and the swing looks pretty but very uppercut forward. K's are the questionBrooks Caple Back end rotation upside. But looks like he could get there?Myles Bailey 80-grade power, major hit concerns. Power and EVs will have to carry the K rate should add walks.James Triantos Jack-of-all-trades master of none (better to be than a master of one). Bench type but has valueWill Sanders Kitchen sink approach could get him to be an MLB starter. Reminds me of Colin ReaCarson Jasa Big time body, big time upside big time control questions. He's fun though.Jose Escobar A little older than you'd like for his level but the data jumps off the page. Sneaky value.Grant Kipp He's in Triple-A and a step away from being an MLB reliever.Derniche Valdez Glasses may have saved him. K% still real, but you can see the tools.Dominick Reid Pedigree and early look save him. Not over powering but could be a BORPBrandon Birdsell I want to believe. Come back from TJS and show the upside and he'll shoot back up. Trades save his spotDylan Blomker High priced prep arm signed away from LSU. Yeah, you get a token spot on my list.Juan Cabada 18 year old with solid approach. Lottery ticket but has pedigree with IFA signing status and I think he's not far off from a breakout. System is a little less exciting today than a week ago, and that's okay. Enough draftees can pump up this list next year. Still have plenty of upside prospects bandied about. Feels like the top-spot is pretty defined with Hartshorn, the next-6 can be a "list 'em how you want" and then things get pretty fluid. But it remains a system with the arrow pointing up compared to where we thought it'd be.

Josiah Hartshorn Hartshorn is the clear #1 after the TDL. Possible top-50 in baseball. Bat so good 1b threat might not matter. Owen Ayers Cubs treated him like a top-50 prospect at the deadline, so I'll treat him close to that. If you believe in the defense and aren't scared off by the age, he's a great prospect.Cade Townsend 1st round pick, shiny new toy syndrome. With Wiggins looking rusty I'll give him the nod.Jaxon Wiggins Hasn't really pitched much for a year. Looks rusty. Stuff is taking baby steps back to where it was, control needs dusting off.Kane Kepley Need to see him do it against Double-A. Think maybe the Cubs like him more than I do. Ethan Conrad 1st round pick, derailed with injuries. Upside there.Kaleb Wing IDK the injury extent yet, but the stuff popped. High praise in the ACL. Caden Sorrell Love the power and the swing looks pretty but very uppercut forward. K's are the questionBrooks Caple Back end rotation upside. But looks like he could get there?Myles Bailey 80-grade power, major hit concerns. Power and EVs will have to carry the K rate should add walks.James Triantos Jack-of-all-trades master of none (better to be than a master of one). Bench type but has valueWill Sanders Kitchen sink approach could get him to be an MLB starter. Reminds me of Colin ReaCarson Jasa Big time body, big time upside big time control questions. He's fun though.Jose Escobar A little older than you'd like for his level but the data jumps off the page. Sneaky value.Grant Kipp He's in Triple-A and a step away from being an MLB reliever.Derniche Valdez Glasses may have saved him. K% still real, but you can see the tools.Dominick Reid Pedigree and early look save him. Not over powering but could be a BORPBrandon Birdsell I want to believe. Come back from TJS and show the upside and he'll shoot back up. Trades save his spotDylan Blomker High priced prep arm signed away from LSU. Yeah, you get a token spot on my list.Juan Cabada 18 year old with solid approach. Lottery ticket but has pedigree with IFA signing status and I think he's not far off from a breakout. System is a little less exciting today than a week ago, and that's okay. Enough draftees can pump up this list next year. Still have plenty of upside prospects bandied about. Feels like the top-spot is pretty defined with Hartshorn, the next-6 can be a "list 'em how you want" and then things get pretty fluid. But it remains a system with the arrow pointing up compared to where we thought it'd be.

Not sure I see anything that suggests dead-arm. Velo was pretty fine (fastball was like half a tick down, but his curveball was 1mph up so I think it's just normal flux). He went a little fastball heavy yesterday so that is a little something but that's about it. One thing to note specifically about yesterday: KC isn't a heavy K% team; they rank bottom-5. They also rank bottom-5 in walks. They're a swing-heavy team. I won't speak for the entire time of his return but I do think yesterday may have just be an aggressive team's output.

Nice.

Fangraphs splits tools will allow you to sort splits by date. Just create a custom start and end date for what month you'd like. You can find that on any player page on FanGraphs. Should be on the left side. It's not under the normal splits tab, so it's easy to miss if you aren't looking for it.