Jason Ross

When Cam Smith makes his MLB debut, only two position players will have ever taken less PAs in MiLB than him. Sure, it remains possible that Cam Smith is ready despite taking under 30 PAs in Double-A, despite not being a consensus top-50 prospect (below Shaw on most lists by 25+ places), and despite not even being a top-10 draft selection just a handful of months ago. But I mean...it's pretty unlikely that he is. This says far more about the state of the Astros than Cam Smith. I dont think there would be any camp Smith could have had with the Cubs and made their OD roster. As Bertz pointed out, as of a few days ago, Smith was running a contact rate in ST of 64%. Im always on team "ST data barely matters", but if we want to look at his, say, OPS and be wow'ed, we should also look at that and understand his process behind the OPS is...not good, currently. A non-shocking revelation for a non-elite prospect based on industry ranking who's really never played above A-Ball. Its kind of to be expected. And signals that when things get real, when teams put more effort into attacking a hitters weakness rather than practicing that things will likely not go well for Smith for a while. Another thing to remember - Gage Workman, a player who the Tigers exposed to the Rule V draft, and has never played above Double-A is having a similarly good ST and he might not even make the team. Yeah, he's a bit older, but point remains - I dont see anyone here under any impressions he's a star now that he had some good practice games. I'd like him to make the team, myself, but its more along the lines of I think he fits the roster and Brujan sucks. I wouldnt let ST change my opinion, in almost any case, on a player. This is a practice environment. If you thought Smith was ready in February, then that's a choice, but I wouldn't agree with you. I still don't think Smith is ready. Maybe I'll be wrong here...but it feels like the Astros are looking to catch lightning in a bottle more so than they are legitimately a believer that he's ready for the Show. For his sake I wish him the best, however.

I think people overrate how bad this could or may hurt. There's a world where, yeah, Smith is like a 4 win perennial player, but thats probably the 90-95% outcome. Even if he doesn't extend, Smith is more likely to fall into the Eloy Jimenez/Gelyber Torres area of "had some good seasons but wasnt a star" type. I remember how badly everyone wished we had those guys, and they have had moments, and seasons, but havent really hit that highwater mark. And to get a year of Tucker, it might still sting a bit, but it's also pretty forgettable in the grand scheme of things. Im not saying you're the one specifically over valuing Smith here (I know youre rational!), it's just the overall I've been seeing, and your post happened to be one to respond to on it. It just feels like a hefty dose of overreaction from fans based on ST outcomes. And just a continuation of the yearly battle on fighting ST outcomes in general. Instead of hyper focusing on some random fringe player hitting well with the Cubs, it's a focus on a recently dealt prospect with not-the-Cubs.

It might. But I'm also pretty sure that Smtih's assignment here is among the tougher ones we have seen. Hes barely accrued 20 PAs outside of high-A prior to ST, hes running a bad contact% in ST, and he's learning a new position. Maybe it all works out for him, but him being down in Triple-A by mid-May feels very realistic. Long term, hes a good prospect, but no one thinks he's generational. He can be a good player! And I doubt this first bit, even if it's rough, will be the decider in him. But I do think he's become one of the biggest risers I've seen in terms of evaluation from draft day (he went from mid-1st round pick to people thinking he can hit 40 home runs) and that's going to be a tough ceiling to hit.

i noticed that at the bottom of the page yesterday and couldn't tell if it was new, or if I was just that un-observant for two years. Phew.

Well, I mean, the Cubs have a top-100 prospect, and a team-top-five prospect in Moises Ballesteros who was an IFA guy. I do agree, that there is a bit of a gap in big-Cubs IFA prospects at the MLB level over the last handful of years, as Ballesteros has been the defacto guy for a bit, but we are seeing some talent. Cristian Hernandez, as well, had a really nice year last season. He had a 135 wRC+ at Myrtle - there's some caveats (repeater, struggled at South Bend in small sample), but he's another IFA name. He's a breakout candidate this year on top of his strong 2024. Behind him, the next classes are probably too young to really identify yet. There's some big names who haven't fully hit yet, but are one good year away from jumping lists, so I'll withhold judgement.

The Cubs will do that at times - though Hernandez has been pretty straight forward so far playing SS. He's logged just a single game at 3b, though has played some 2b. 3b is a new development for Hernandez.

Per BA, Hernandez has spent a lot of time at 3b on backfields this ST. Im not sure if theres a deeper reasoning behind it, but as Rojas appears to be hurt, and Hernandez has always had positive scotuing on his glove, it does raise some possible questions. Is this is just to create flexibility, whether they like Rojas more at 3b, or internally they're less jazzed about him at SS? I wont try to answer it or go crazy trying to answer it but something of an interesting note.

Jones was originally traded to Colorado from Cleveland. Interesting trade.

I think its important to once again mention that Smith has *potential* plus power and contact but he's never shown both simultaneously. During his time at FSU, when he's hit for contact, he's flattened his bat path out and hit the ball on the ground far more. When he hit for home runs, his launch angle was much better but he struck out much more, and at levels that make you a little uneasy, probably. He did crush Low-A, which is good and all...but he was playing in the CWS. He probably should have. His samples are too small in both SB and Tenn to come away with a ton, especially since it does not seem the Cubs, themselves improved his LA, as reports are they didn't touch his swing in that limited time. If he can bridge the gap between the two versions, he can be a pretty damn good hitter. But it remains theoretical that he has both plus power and plus contact, in that he's only ever shown one at a time.

His LA dipped significantly his senior year. Yes; probably to help limit whiff. He didnt change his swing last year when he was drafted. It's certainly possible he has since then, with a new org, but hadn't with the Cubs. The Cubs general philosophy is that they don't tweak swings until the results suggest it isnt working (i.e. Matt Shaw). I cannot say this for certain, because I've never been invited to Spring Trianing, but I'd assume that teams aren't overly concerned with scouting reports against MiLB talent for those games. And because players are using it as practice, they have their own things they're doing, over learning a report for every Double-A hitter they might face. So I'd guess teams aren't really attacking Smith's potential flaws. Dude has had a great camp. Super credit. We'd be super excited if he was for us. But it's camp and remembering that is key.

It certainly could. While this is more anecdotal than anything, recent history says Cubs fans are probably more worried about Smith being great than they should be. Gleyber Torres, Jorge Soler, and Eloy Jimenez were all supposed to be excellent offensive prospects and none of them went on to be all that great. There have been blips and flashes of excellence for all, but all have fallen short of those concerns in their entirety to date. Maybe Smith breaks that mold, but most prospects fall short of their 95% outcome, regardless.

Reeks of desperation. He's had a great ST camp, but he's got 20 PA's above A-Ball. The MLB is very different from South Bend, very different from the CWS and very different from ST. He might be a very good MLB player down the road, It's pretty likely he's going to look very, very, very much like a rookie if the Astros go that route and there's a possibility it harms his development. For his sake I hope it works out.

Ooooh...yeah good catch. I thought he was there in 2014 but my time was off on Pena. I knew it was in that early period of transition to Epstein but I guess I was a bit off. Nice find on the Dodgers/Cubs thing though

I've been going through my head on lefties who finished like that around that time period. That's during the 100 years of Wrigley throwback, I believe. Pena played that year and he finished like that. Nice call. Pretty sure you nailed it.

Yeah, even if you add in the wind and the metal bat and whatever you want, going that far the other way is just insane.

Called that Eli Morgan thing 🤣

Eh, I think we're underselling the Dodgers sans Betts/Freeman. Realistically, the Dodgers are really good against LHP. They still have guys like Tommy Edman (career 125 wRC+ against LHP), Kike Hernandez (career 113 wRC+ against LHP), Will Smith (career 126 wRC+), Teoscar Hernandez (career 139 wRC+) in the lineup with Shohei. Even someone like Miguel Rojas is pretty competent (95 wRC+ against LHP. The lineup is awesome when you factor in Betts and Freeman for sure. But it's still very capable on an every day basis.

Right, but I don't think this is a "talent" thing, per se. Sure, the Cubs aren't the Dodgers, but let's not like like the chasm here is the Dodgers and the White Sox. It's like, the defacto best team, and maybe the 8th best team. It's also probably a decent deal to do with experience. The Cubs have a lot of youth. Who struggled this weekend? Guys like Shaw (rookie), PCA (second year, first OD), Busch (second year) and then think of who struggled the most for the Dodgers? Sasaki - rookie, first OD. Who didn't struggle? A lot of the guys who had "been there done that" like Kirby Yates, Kike Hernandez, Shohei Ohtani.... Is it really surprising? Probably not. This is a complete oddity of a baseball game, during a time when players are just trying to get into a grove. Add in a completely different continent... Let's not try to make this more than it is. If these games were held in Sloan Park, no one would care. I get that they count, but we should probably care about the minutia in a similar vein.

My favorite is when the Cubs inevitably drop a random three game series to "Insert Bad Team Here" in July or whatever.,

Probably worth noting as well that while I try not to get too worked up one way or another on ST data for a host of reasons; competition level, practice environment/low-stakes, guys are working on certain things...Hernandez is a pretty young player, so while it's pretty unimpressive when an established MLB hitter takes a Triple-A pitcher deep, for example...I think when someone who hasn't hit about A-Ball does something, it means a tad more.

I think the easy answer is "it's still spring training" for these guys. April can already be a bit of a transition period for players, and the Cubs were playing a game that counted weeks before they normally would on another continent. Weird situation. I'd have liked for them to look a bit sharper, but I won't blame them for not, either.

"Sloppy" is how I would describe these two games - but I think that's what we should have expected. Any other year, and these two games are played at Sloan Park. Hell, the Cubs are headed back there to resume Spring Training as is. The pitchers are still working themselves into form while the hitters are refining processes. If these two games happened in June, they'd have been a small sample size to begin with, then you add in that these are two games in which they were supposed to be practicing and gearing up, and they were literally half-way across the world? Bummer they lost, but the way they looked is kind of what I thought we'd see. I'm going to try to take very little away from these games other than considering them as a bit of an oddity.

Yeah, Lovich is one to watch. I kind of think he's a "slow burn" type prospect which is why I didn't really mention him here - he's never focused solely on hitting, is pretty lanky, and is a prep-bat...he feels like a guy, to me, who two years, with weight and development to pop. With that said, he was a name that popped as a pre-draft follow and someone I liked into the draft so it's not a name I'll quibble with you on, either. He gives off Cody Bellinger vibes - not necessarily because I think he will be that - more on the way he looks, his length and the like.

I hadn't been paying attention to Brown's velo today, and seeing this, I've kind of had to change some of my thinking on some other things. I had been under the impression that the Tokyo Dome's gun had been maybe riding hot. Boyd, Imanaga, and Yamamoto all had fastball velos up 1-2 mph from last year - seeing that Brown was down makes me think that maybe it's not hot and that's some development in all four pitcher's offerings. Or maybe they were a bit amped. If there's a positive on the middle of the order and Shaw, his first PA was pretty solid. Battled off some two strike pitches, and while the EV of 80mph isn't sexy, his hit up the middle had an xBA of .500 - the Dodgers had him shaded well. Could have easily had his first MLB hit there, even if only a single.

You could tell Shota and Brown were both a bit off. If there's a positive, it's that they generated a good amount of whiffs - though partially because they threw a lot, too. I know this one "counts" all the same, but generally speaking, a game on March 18th is usually a ST affair that guys are still working on gearing up, and even by Opening Day, guys are still rounding into form. So I'm a bit willing to be "eh, whatever" for now on those polish things.